Does size really matter?

[cp176]

Probably not what you are thinking of, but when it comes to this year's lineup I think that it will. I'm not sure that bigness necessarily translates into more power leading to more scoring but I do think that any pitcher will at least have to consider the fact that thy will pitching to a lineup that looks big and strong. It has been awhile - Ramirez - Sandoval - Ortiz - Napoli and others. Still have our share of good contact hitters and potential base stealers but Earl Weaver's theory about the sacrifice bunt vs the 3 run homer is sure to come into play this year. Going to be fun to watch.

[mvp 78]

Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?

Dingers! Dingers! Dingers!

[cp176]

Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?

Dingers! Dingers! Dingers!

 

 

 

The donger likes those dingers - Is that 16 candles or what.

[cp176]

I'll try this another way. How about the size of contracts being paid.. Couple of things here - there are some on board who think that the Red Sox might be restricted by some sort of budget considerations. I am not. Well, maybe I am - I think that they are willing to pay whatever they have to to get the players(s) they want. They won't over spend unless they are sure. How about a 165 million dollar committment to two players who have virtually no experience at the major league level. Is that over spending? Read an interesting article this morning that I agree with. Castillo should not be handed a position unless he earns it. If Victorino gets traded, the story changes. If not, let the games begin. I have said this before - I don't think they really wanted John Lester back as much as some people say they did. They did not get outplayed. they just did not value him as much as the Cubs did. I think that they have had another plan all along. It is one that I like.

[SoxnCycles]

I'll try this another way. How about the size of contracts being paid.. Couple of things here - there are some on board who think that the Red Sox might be restricted by some sort of budget considerations. I am not. Well, maybe I am - I think that they are willing to pay whatever they have to to get the players(s) they want. They won't over spend unless they are sure. How about a 165 million dollar committment to two players who have virtually no experience at the major league level. Is that over spending? Read an interesting article this morning that I agree with. Castillo should not be handed a position unless he earns it. If Victorino gets traded, the story changes. If not, let the games begin. I have said this before - I don't think they really wanted John Lester back as much as some people say they did. They did not get outplayed. they just did not value him as much as the Cubs did. I think that they have had another plan all along. It is one that I like.

 

The Sox final offer to Lester was 6/135.

That's a fairly generous offer to a player that they've decided they don't want.

 

They obviously did not value him as much as the Cubs, but saying that Lester was never in their plans is a stretch, IMO.

 

Where they screwed up was last spring.

If they offered Lester a contract comparable to Homer Bailey, somewhere in the 110 mil range, he's the Sox Opening Day start this year.

They low-balled him, thinking they'd negotiate up to the 95-100 mil range.

They thought wrong.

 

I guess one could debate endlessly about "how much they wanted him".

I believe they, as well as we, know how much more solidified this rotation would be with Lester at the top of it.

 

They screwed up and now, rather than take on even riskier contracts, they are rolling the dice with what they have.

 

I like the idea of waiting to see how this rotation performs, without going all in with a deal with Philly.

Decent pitching will be available at the deadline.

 

But, I would've liked having Lester in the rotation much more.

[Kimmi]

Probably not what you are thinking of

 

 

Dang. I was really excited and hopeful when I saw the thread title..... Imagine my disappointment at your opening post.

 

Just kidding, of course.

 

I think this lineup has the potential to be scary good. I would think that the table setters will get on base at a good clip, which will translate into good things for the meat of the order. I'm expecting good things from Bogaerts as well. It should be a strong lineup 1-9, with maybe the exception of Vazquez, but even with him, I'm not anticipating a black hole.

[Kimmi]

I'll try this another way. How about the size of contracts being paid.. Couple of things here - there are some on board who think that the Red Sox might be restricted by some sort of budget considerations. I am not. Well, maybe I am - I think that they are willing to pay whatever they have to to get the players(s) they want. They won't over spend unless they are sure. How about a 165 million dollar committment to two players who have virtually no experience at the major league level. Is that over spending? Read an interesting article this morning that I agree with. Castillo should not be handed a position unless he earns it. If Victorino gets traded, the story changes. If not, let the games begin. I have said this before - I don't think they really wanted John Lester back as much as some people say they did. They did not get outplayed. they just did not value him as much as the Cubs did. I think that they have had another plan all along. It is one that I like.

 

 

It's always risky to commit that much money to players who have not played in the MLB before, but IMO, those contracts to Castillo and Moncada are good calculated risks. If they are halway decent, they will be worth their contracts. If they perform to the level that some think they might, they could end up being steals. I would not put either of those contracts into the "insane" category.

[Kimmi]

The Sox final offer to Lester was 6/135.

That's a fairly generous offer to a player that they've decided they don't want.

 

They obviously did not value him as much as the Cubs, but saying that Lester was never in their plans is a stretch, IMO.

 

Where they screwed up was last spring.

If they offered Lester a contract comparable to Homer Bailey, somewhere in the 110 mil range, he's the Sox Opening Day start this year.

They low-balled him, thinking they'd negotiate up to the 95-100 mil range.

They thought wrong.

 

I guess one could debate endlessly about "how much they wanted him".

I believe they, as well as we, know how much more solidified this rotation would be with Lester at the top of it.

 

They screwed up and now, rather than take on even riskier contracts, they are rolling the dice with what they have.

 

I like the idea of waiting to see how this rotation performs, without going all in with a deal with Philly.

Decent pitching will be available at the deadline.

 

But, I would've liked having Lester in the rotation much more.

 

 

Solid post SoxNCycles, and I agree. I really believe they wanted Lester back, but as usual, they put a cap on how high they are willing to go, and they did not go above that amount.

 

That line I bolded is particularly true. When they lost out on Lester, they did not make a panic move to acquire Scherzer or Hamels at a price that they were not comfortable with. They had a solid Plan B, and did a very good job in adding Miley, Porcello, and Masterson.

[SoxnCycles]

Dang. I was really excited and hopeful when I saw the thread title..... Imagine my disappointment at your opening post.

 

 

Disappointed ...again.

[cp176]

Dang. I was really excited and hopeful when I saw the thread title..... Imagine my disappointment at your opening post.

 

Just kidding, of course.

 

I think this lineup has the potential to be scary good. I would think that the table setters will get on base at a good clip, which will translate into good things for the meat of the order. I'm expecting good things from Bogaerts as well. It should be a strong lineup 1-9, with maybe the exception of Vazquez, but even with him, I'm not anticipating a black hole.

 

 

Oh come on Kimmi - What's up with that meat of the order stuff. Like everyone else, I would have liked to have seen Lester come back. There is no denying the fact that he was made a significant offer as well. He indeed would look great in that rotation right now. There were too many things that happened last year for me to totally buy into the theory that they wanted him back badly. I would even go out on a limb and say they were pretty sure that their offer to him was going to get trumped. I don't see long term deals(5,6 years) being offered to many players by the Sox unless they in their mid 20's. I know that I may be giving them more credit than they deserve for sticking to a plan that gets more evident each day but just my opinion. I would be very surprised if either Victorino or Napoli are around next year. Napoli maybe as a potential dh.

[iortiz]

The Sox final offer to Lester was 6/135.

That's a fairly generous offer to a player that they've decided they don't want.

 

They obviously did not value him as much as the Cubs, but saying that Lester was never in their plans is a stretch, IMO.

 

Where they screwed up was last spring.

If they offered Lester a contract comparable to Homer Bailey, somewhere in the 110 mil range, he's the Sox Opening Day start this year.

They low-balled him, thinking they'd negotiate up to the 95-100 mil range.

They thought wrong.

 

I guess one could debate endlessly about "how much they wanted him".

I believe they, as well as we, know how much more solidified this rotation would be with Lester at the top of it.

 

They screwed up and now, rather than take on even riskier contracts, they are rolling the dice with what they have.

 

I like the idea of waiting to see how this rotation performs, without going all in with a deal with Philly.

Decent pitching will be available at the deadline.

 

But, I would've liked having Lester in the rotation much more.

When you see the owner himself flying to meet him at his house in Atlanta to make him a "last offer" could tell you how much they wanted.

 

Anyways... Hopefully this rotation doesn't collapse.

[mvp 78]

When you see the owner himself flying to meet him at his house in Atlanta to make him a "last offer" could tell you how much they wanted.

 

Anyways... Hopefully this rotation doesn't collapse.

 

That was only a PR move imo.

[Kimmi]

Oh come on Kimmi - What's up with that meat of the order stuff. Like everyone else, I would have liked to have seen Lester come back. There is no denying the fact that he was made a significant offer as well. He indeed would look great in that rotation right now. There were too many things that happened last year for me to totally buy into the theory that they wanted him back badly. I would even go out on a limb and say they were pretty sure that their offer to him was going to get trumped. I don't see long term deals(5,6 years) being offered to many players by the Sox unless they in their mid 20's. I know that I may be giving them more credit than they deserve for sticking to a plan that gets more evident each day but just my opinion. I would be very surprised if either Victorino or Napoli are around next year. Napoli maybe as a potential dh.

 

 

We can go back and forth about this all day, but we'll never know for sure. I think they would have loved having Lester back under their terms. I know you and many others disagree. It's all speculation on both of our parts. I am sure the FO has both a short and long term plan in place. We don't know the full extent of that either - again it's mostly speculation. I would also be very surprised if Victorino is around next year, with the glut of outfielders that we have. Napoli is more of a possiblity IMO, but there we'll have to wait to see how things play out this season.

[User Name]

That was only a PR move imo.

 

That's what I keep saying. They could have beat the Cubs offer had they wanted to.....they just didn't want to, it seems.

[Kimmi]

That's what I keep saying. They could have beat the Cubs offer had they wanted to.....they just didn't want to, it seems.

 

Of course they could have beat the Cubs offer if they wanted to. But the fact that they didn't beat that offer doesn't mean that they didn't want Lester back. It could mean that they deemed the price tag had just gotten too high.

[Spudboy]

Once Scherzer rejected the Tiger's liberal offer the writing was on the wall. Lester would cost more than the Sox could justify.

 

He was gone.

[mvp 78]

Of course they could have beat the Cubs offer if they wanted to. But the fact that they didn't beat that offer doesn't mean that they didn't want Lester back. It could mean that they deemed the price tag had just gotten too high.

 

They'd want every player back if the price is right. They would have been psyched to sign Lester to a below market deal. They wanted him back just at a reduced cost.

[Kimmi]

They'd want every player back if the price is right. They would have been psyched to sign Lester to a below market deal. They wanted him back just at a reduced cost.

 

 

I think the Sox' final offer to Lester was more than fair, and I wouldn't consider it below market. It's possible that the Sox really didn't want him back that badly, I just don't think it's fair to say that it's obvious that they didn't want him back because they didn't match the Cubbies' offer. There comes a point where you have to say that the offer is too much.

[iortiz]

I think the Sox' final offer to Lester was more than fair, and I wouldn't consider it below market. It's possible that the Sox really didn't want him back that badly, I just don't think it's fair to say that it's obvious that they didn't want him back because they didn't match the Cubbies' offer. There comes a point where you have to say that the offer is too much.

 

I think this is what really likely happened.

[User Name]

Then why didn't they just pony up and offer 6/120 from the get go? That wouldn't have necessarily gotten it done IMO, but it just seems weird they offered so little and then so much.

[Bellhorn04]

Then why didn't they just pony up and offer 6/120 from the get go? That wouldn't have necessarily gotten it done IMO, but it just seems weird they offered so little and then so much.

 

That's the way I see it too.

[iortiz]

I think they shitted the bed since the beginning when they misread his value and tryied to cheat him with that initial ridiculous offer. Then they wanted to fix the thing but it was to late. As I said, At 120 M he would have likely signed at the time, even Lester himself said that according to the link that I already shared.

[iortiz]

Back to the topic... This thread sounds like un albur jaja well played cp.

[Bellhorn04]

I think they shitted the bed since the beginning when they misread his value and tryied to cheat him with that initial ridiculous offer. Then they wanted to fix the thing but it was to late. As I said, At 120 M he would have likely signed at the time, even Lester himself said that according to the link that I already shared.

 

It's 'shat the bed' - just want to save you a few keystrokes.

[iortiz]

It's 'shat the bed' - just want to save you a few keystrokes.

 

Haba oks Bell, got it.

[Kimmi]

Then why didn't they just pony up and offer 6/120 from the get go? That wouldn't have necessarily gotten it done IMO, but it just seems weird they offered so little and then so much.

 

 

That's a fair question. The initial offer was certainly ridiculously low. I honestly think they just messed up, and put too much stock into Lester's willingness to take a discount. In fairness to the FO though, they stated that the initial offer to Lester was in line with Beckett's extension in 2010, and though the market has changed since then, I can see some logic to that reasoning.

 

Either way, I think Henry personally visiting Lester is a lot to go through just for "show".

[Kimmi]

It's 'shat the bed' - just want to save you a few keystrokes.

 

LOL Bellhorn

[iortiz]

That's a fair question. The initial offer was certainly ridiculously low. I honestly think they just messed up, and put too much stock into Lester's willingness to take a discount. In fairness to the FO though, they stated that the initial offer to Lester was in line with Beckett's extension in 2010, and though the market has changed since then, I can see some logic to that reasoning.

 

Either way, I think Henry personally visiting Lester is a lot to go through just for "show".

I couldn't put it better.

[sk7326]

Then why didn't they just pony up and offer 6/120 from the get go? That wouldn't have necessarily gotten it done IMO, but it just seems weird they offered so little and then so much.

 

My theory is that they looked at the declining strikeout rate, his age, one good-verygood season in the last 3 and priced that into their "pre-season" negotiating strategy. They crafted an offer that would satisfy a "past peak" guy (and might in fact be fair looking at future performance) but nothing that could prevent Lester from making a bet on himself and going to the open market. But then Lester bounced back and bore an amazing resemblance to the 2009 version of Jon Lester, and when you take that combined with his remarkable durability - he changed the parameters. And you get to an open market, it's a crapshoot.

 

I think the Red Sox view of Lester fundamentally changed based on Lester's form in 2014 - the continuation and improvement on his end of 2013 form might have gone from outlier to "genuine improvement". The problem is by the time they figured this out - Lester was available for all to bid.

[Kimmi]

My theory is that they looked at the declining strikeout rate, his age, one good-verygood season in the last 3 and priced that into their "pre-season" negotiating strategy. They crafted an offer that would satisfy a "past peak" guy (and might in fact be fair looking at future performance) but nothing that could prevent Lester from making a bet on himself and going to the open market. But then Lester bounced back and bore an amazing resemblance to the 2009 version of Jon Lester, and when you take that combined with his remarkable durability - he changed the parameters. And you get to an open market, it's a crapshoot.

 

I think the Red Sox view of Lester fundamentally changed based on Lester's form in 2014 - the continuation and improvement on his end of 2013 form might have gone from outlier to "genuine improvement". The problem is by the time they figured this out - Lester was available for all to bid.

 

 

Good points sk.

 

I'm not defending the FO's initial offer because I think it was ridiculously low, but there is some rationale as to why they made it.