Does size really matter?

[Kimmi]

Well let's see - since in this case !0 mil = 20 mil, if the Yanks had made that offer, yes I agree, I think the Sox would have stepped away. I hope so anyway. These aren't the Yanks of King George's era nor are these the same Sox. A lot has happened over the years. Within reason I think the Sox will be willing to pay for whom they want. Moot point right now though. The issues right now will seem to center around how they deal with their surplus of players and whether that pitching staff can get the job done. That ball Howard hit off Masterson yesterday didn't look much like a groundball to me until it came to rest a few hundred feet from home plate. I'm cheering for him - hope he gets it done.

 

 

It is pretty certain that the Sox will deal some of its surplus during the season. At this point, I think they should keep everyone and figure out what their true needs will be after a couple of months. I have always liked Masterson. I am really pulling for him.

[a700hitter]

Why is it weak rationalization? Because the FO didn't make the moves that you thought it should make?

Yep, and because people are just speculating as to FO strategy -- pulling it out of their you know what's. I don't like their moves, and I don't care about speculating about FO strategy. If people like their moves, that is fine, but it's bogus when people conclude that the FO executed its strategy.

 

As for resigning ourselves to the situation, there is no alternative. I have had to resign myself to having had a jackass boss from time to time, but I still complained about it. Does resigning ourselves to a situation mean that we can't have an opinion about it?

[Kimmi]

Yep, and because people are just speculating as to FO strategy -- pulling it out of their you know what's. I don't like their moves, and I don't care about speculating about FO strategy. If people like their moves, that is fine, but it's bogus when people conclude that the FO executed its strategy.

 

As for resigning ourselves to the situation, there is no alternative. I have had to resign myself to having had a jackass boss from time to time, but I still complained about it. Does resigning ourselves to a situation mean that we can't have an opinion about it?

 

 

None of us know for sure exactly what the FO strategy was or is. We're all just speculating and bouncing opinions off of each other. I don't know whether they executed plan A, plan B, plan C, or some other plan. All I'm saying is that I think they did a good job this offseason in assembling a playoff contending team. That's really all I can hope for as a fan.

 

Things didn't work out exactly how I would have preferred they did. I wanted Lester back for one. For two, I would have preferred Headley over Sandoval. Nonetheless, I try to understand why the FO would make the moves that I disagree with. I'm guessing they know what they're doing a lot better than I do. And I am happy with the team that we have going into the season.

 

You can have all the opinions you want. I just don't agree that the rationalizations are weak just because you don't happen to agree with them.

[Bellhorn04]

I am really on the fence about this starting rotation. If they're good enough to get us to the playoffs, then hats off to Cherington. But if they they're as bad as some of the naysayers believe, he's going to take a lot of heat, and I'm not sure there will be a valid defense. This rotation is his baby.

[a700hitter]

None of us know for sure exactly what the FO strategy was or is. We're all just speculating and bouncing opinions off of each other. I don't know whether they executed plan A, plan B, plan C, or some other plan. All I'm saying is that I think they did a good job this offseason in assembling a playoff contending team. That's really all I can hope for as a fan.

 

Things didn't work out exactly how I would have preferred they did. I wanted Lester back for one. For two, I would have preferred Headley over Sandoval. Nonetheless, I try to understand why the FO would make the moves that I disagree with. I'm guessing they know what they're doing a lot better than I do. And I am happy with the team that we have going into the season.

 

You can have all the opinions you want. I just don't agree that the rationalizations are weak just because you don't happen to agree with them.

They are rationalizations because without knowledge of the FO strategy it is an unsubstantiated excuse. If you like what they did in the off season, that is okay. You usually come armed with stats and data to back up your arguments, but I don't remember seeing any compelling data in this regard. I have seen arguments (not by you) that this collection of mediocrity is an execution of the FO forward thinking strategy. Eyerolls. That is not backed up by data. It's a guess at best. IMO, an argument like that is baseless rationalization.

[cp176]

They are rationalizations because without knowledge of the FO strategy it is an unsubstantiated excuse. If you like what they did in the off season, that is okay. You usually come armed with stats and data to back up your arguments, but I don't remember seeing any compelling data in this regard. I have seen arguments (not by you) that this collection of mediocrity is an execution of the FO forward thinking strategy. Eyerolls. That is not backed up by data. It's a guess at best. IMO, an argument like that is baseless rationalization.

 

I'm just trying to be a hopeful Red Sox fan. Something I have been for many years. Trying to stay upbeat and hoping that they have some plan. The reality of the situation might be a little different. It's their lack of deals so far that has me concerned. I did not and continue to not like the Hanley Ramirez deal. The Porcello deal I do like. I don't know anymore about what they are up to than anybody else. I just figure there are two directions I can go in and I am a fan.

[a700hitter]

I'm just trying to be a hopeful Red Sox fan. Something I have been for many years. Trying to stay upbeat and hoping that they have some plan. The reality of the situation might be a little different. It's their lack of deals so far that has me concerned. I did not and continue to not like the Hanley Ramirez deal. The Porcello deal I do like. I don't know anymore about what they are up to than anybody else. I just figure there are two directions I can go in and I am a fan.

 

We are fans so hope is a necessity.

[Kimmi]

I am really on the fence about this starting rotation. If they're good enough to get us to the playoffs, then hats off to Cherington. But if they they're as bad as some of the naysayers believe, he's going to take a lot of heat, and I'm not sure there will be a valid defense. This rotation is his baby.

 

 

If the team goes down in flames, Ben shares part of the blame, but I think there is some valid defense to his moves, even if they end up not working. All the main projection systems and most analysts favor the Sox to win the division. Not by much, but they are favored nonetheless. If they are projected on paper to be that good, then IMO, he's done a successful job this offseason. He can't control what happens on the field.

[Kimmi]

They are rationalizations because without knowledge of the FO strategy it is an unsubstantiated excuse. If you like what they did in the off season, that is okay. You usually come armed with stats and data to back up your arguments, but I don't remember seeing any compelling data in this regard. I have seen arguments (not by you) that this collection of mediocrity is an execution of the FO forward thinking strategy. Eyerolls. That is not backed up by data. It's a guess at best. IMO, an argument like that is baseless rationalization.

 

An argument saying that the FO doesn't have a legitimate plan or that they don't know what they're doing is more baseless, if you ask me. We may not know what the plan is, but I can say with a great deal of certaintly that they have a plan, both short term and long term. They are not sitting around throwing darts at a dartboard. I can also say with a great deal of certaintly that their plan is backed up by tons of data and scouting reports.

[Kimmi]

I'm just trying to be a hopeful Red Sox fan. Something I have been for many years. Trying to stay upbeat and hoping that they have some plan. The reality of the situation might be a little different. It's their lack of deals so far that has me concerned. I did not and continue to not like the Hanley Ramirez deal. The Porcello deal I do like. I don't know anymore about what they are up to than anybody else. I just figure there are two directions I can go in and I am a fan.

 

 

Which teams in the AL East do you think are stronger overall than the Sox?

[sk7326]

Kimmi, I think the question at hand now is how the Sox specifically handled the negotiations with Lester. He was not just any free agent, because they had a big time window to deal with him, and they did make him an offer in the offseason. But in the history of big contract negotiations I don't think a team has ever made such a huge jump from opening offer to final offer. They ended up doubling their initial offer. That is very strange, if we're taking the position that the Red Sox 'assign values and stick to them.'

 

I think the only way the negotiations can be looked on as systematic or methodical is if the ultimate plan was to let him go.

 

I think there is truth there. Personally I think they doubled the offer because Lester fundamentally changed his valuation with the 2014 performance. I think - in a way - it is a compliment to the front office that they were not stubborn about the valuation, and were willing to change based on the facts on the ground. But by the time they made that decision, the open market had a chance to take a spin.

 

What the Red Sox did this offseason is a sort of parallel to what the Patriots had to do once Darrelle Revis left. Instead of saying, "let's pay a lot of money for an inferior man to man guy" they just decided "we'll just have to not do that anymore and try something else scheme wise".

 

Once you lose the ace, for whatever reason - you have a few choices. You either find another one, which is hard because those generally don't exist, overpay for an inferior model (James Shields), or you change your mousetrap for what can work given the hand that's been dealt. So the Sox have chosen to boost the offense (and count on the additional marginal value of better offense in a run poor environment) and focus on cheaper guys in the rotation to hold the fort. I still expect them to try to upgrade the rotation - but what that will look like is very much to be written.

[cp176]

Which teams in the AL East do you think are stronger overall than the Sox?

 

That is the million dollar question. I think the east looks a little sad. It is going to come down to whether or not the pitching staff can get it done or not. Regardless of all of the data, I am not sold on the fact that the Red Sox offense is going to lay over everybody else. I think that they will be better - how much better remains to be seen.

[Bellhorn04]

If the team goes down in flames, Ben shares part of the blame, but I think there is some valid defense to his moves, even if they end up not working. All the main projection systems and most analysts favor the Sox to win the division. Not by much, but they are favored nonetheless. If they are projected on paper to be that good, then IMO, he's done a successful job this offseason. He can't control what happens on the field.

 

I agree with a lot of that. But if the rotation fails Ben is going to be very heavily criticized in many quarters, and many of the analysts will be right there to explain the errors in judgment he made.

 

I'm not trying to go all iortiz here about the rotation, but I have to admit I'm not feeling very comfortable about it, nor about the depth behind it. It's going to be interesting, that's for sure.

[a700hitter]

An argument saying that the FO doesn't have a legitimate plan or that they don't know what they're doing is more baseless, if you ask me. We may not know what the plan is, but I can say with a great deal of certaintly that they have a plan, both short term and long term. They are not sitting around throwing darts at a dartboard. I can also say with a great deal of certaintly that their plan is backed up by tons of data and scouting reports.

 

I never said that they don't have a plan. Of course they have a plan. However, we are not privy to the plan, nor do we know whether they have executed that plan with success. I am saying that it is my opinion that the pitching moves this off season have not been very strong. No one has really countered that opinion with solid statistical evidence or data. What their plan is and whether they have exceuted it doesn't change my opinion of these moves. I see no compelling evidence that this will be a. Strong staff.

Edited March 20, 2015 by a700hitter

[Bellhorn04]

I would like to see the projections for Buchholz and Masterson, and I'm even more interested in the rationale behind them. Because these two have been so up and down that to me they are almost completely unpredictable. They have been very good and they have been abysmal. Joe Kelly is also very hard to predict. Porcello should be good and I'm cautiously optimistic about Miley as well. Optimism is there, but I can't see feeling comfortable. Our depth is also a huge unknown.

[Kimmi]

That is the million dollar question. I think the east looks a little sad. It is going to come down to whether or not the pitching staff can get it done or not. Regardless of all of the data, I am not sold on the fact that the Red Sox offense is going to lay over everybody else. I think that they will be better - how much better remains to be seen.

 

 

The AL East does not look that strong, which is one of the reasons, good or bad, that the Sox project so well. FWIW, the Sox are projected to be the #1 offense in baseball in terms of runs scored. Even if they fall short of that projection, they should still be very formidable, and good enough to carry our "ace-less" starting rotation.

[Kimmi]

I agree with a lot of that. But if the rotation fails Ben is going to be very heavily criticized in many quarters, and many of the analysts will be right there to explain the errors in judgment he made.

 

I'm not trying to go all iortiz here about the rotation, but I have to admit I'm not feeling very comfortable about it, nor about the depth behind it. It's going to be interesting, that's for sure.

 

 

I agree that if the rotation falls short, Ben will be heavily criticized. And as I said before, he will certainly share in some of the blame. I will also say up front that if the rotation fails, I will undoubtedly be here with my butt washing self defending his moves.

 

I can understand why many people are not extremely confident in our rotation. The idea of not having a bonafide ace takes some getting used to. We have to remember that we are likely going to be depending on our offense to win games far more often than on our pitching. I'm not thrilled about that, but if it that strategy gets the job done, then all is good. A win is a win.

[Kimmi]

I never said that they don't have a plan. Of course they have a plan. However, we are not privy to the plan, nor do we know whether they have executed that plan with success. I am saying that it is my opinion that the pitching moves this off season have not been very strong. No one has really countered that opinion with solid statistical evidence or data. What there plan is and whether they have exceuted it doesn't change my opinion of these moves. I see no compelling evidence that this will be a. Strong staff.

 

 

I haven't seen anyone say that this will be a strong staff. They will likely be middle of the pack, solid enough to keep the team in most games.

[Kimmi]

I would like to see the projections for Buchholz and Masterson, and I'm even more interested in the rationale behind them. Because these two have been so up and down that to me they are almost completely unpredictable. They have been very good and they have been abysmal. Joe Kelly is also very hard to predict. Porcello should be good and I'm cautiously optimistic about Miley as well. Optimism is there, but I can't see feeling comfortable. Our depth is also a huge unknown.

 

 

Fangraphs projections:

 

IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR

Rick Porcello 196.0 6.3 2.1 0.8 .307 71.1 % 3.79 3.70 3.2

Clay Buchholz 180.0 6.9 2.9 1.0 .304 70.5 % 4.13 4.08 2.1

Wade Miley 173.0 7.2 3.0 0.9 .308 71.5 % 4.03 3.93 2.1

Justin Masterson 167.0 7.3 4.0 0.8 .307 69.6 % 4.26 4.15 1.8

Joe Kelly 140.0 6.1 3.5 0.9 .303 70.1 % 4.35 4.37 1.1

 

 

Davenport Projections:

 

G GS IP H R HR BB SO W L SV ERA WHIP WARP

Rick Porcello 29 29 190.3 193 82 18 40 136 12 9 0 3.56 1.224 4.0

Wade Miley 31 31 192.3 192 96 20 75 155 11 11 0 4.14 1.388 2.4

Clay Buchholz 26 26 162.3 161 81 16 49 130 9 9 0 4.11 1.294 2.1

Justin Masterson 28 28 169.0 163 90 15 77 147 9 10 0 4.38 1.420 1.5

Joe Kelly 24 24 149.3 158 79 15 57 100 8 9 0 4.37 1.440 1.3

 

 

I don't think any of the projections are outrageously optimistic. We are projected to do well because of our offense.

 

 

Sorry, that is hard to read. The columns are not lining up as intended.

Edited March 19, 2015 by Kimmi