The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread

[sk7326]

The Yanks have finished 2nd and 3rd the last two seasons, and their team has not added or subtracted much major talent. They need everything to fall their way to get back to October.

 

with negative run differentials both years! so they've been lucky too (although their bullpen work has been good both years, and i do think that can help the close game stuff a little bit).

 

I know jack talks about the rotation being key - but the yankees pitching last year was excellent - it was a hideous offense that was the problem. Now will Stephen Drew without a full camp no longer be the major league's worst regular? I think that is a reasonable bet - especially if BJ Upton is still breathing. But him and Tex do not a 100 run difference make.

 

The AL East is a coingflip again - just like 2013 and 2014. Now I think that Baltimore probably has the lowest probability of a bad season, but I don't think that means they will win the division either. Tampa probably needs the most help, because the youngsters do not seem as good as the group which led the 2008-2013 explosion.

 

Really it's going to be all about close game luck and injuries - which should make it a fun ride.

[Kimmi]

with negative run differentials both years! so they've been lucky too (although their bullpen work has been good both years, and i do think that can help the close game stuff a little bit).

 

I know jack talks about the rotation being key - but the yankees pitching last year was excellent - it was a hideous offense that was the problem. Now will Stephen Drew without a full camp no longer be the major league's worst regular? I think that is a reasonable bet - especially if BJ Upton is still breathing. But him and Tex do not a 100 run difference make.

 

The AL East is a coingflip again - just like 2013 and 2014. Now I think that Baltimore probably has the lowest probability of a bad season, but I don't think that means they will win the division either. Tampa probably needs the most help, because the youngsters do not seem as good as the group which led the 2008-2013 explosion.

 

Really it's going to be all about close game luck and injuries - which should make it a fun ride.

 

 

Another solid post sk.

[GomesBeard]

I guess we're still talking 'predictions' so will post this here..

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/03/17/boston-red-sox-rotation-rick-porcello-wade-miley-clay-buchholz

 

Interesting article. I happen to like Verducci, and the comment about the starting rotations in the AL East and the lack of Cy Young votes was pretty eye-opening. Of course, the real question is, can we get to the WS with this rotation. That, I think, is a little more problematic.

[Kimmi]

I guess we're still talking 'predictions' so will post this here..

 

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/03/17/boston-red-sox-rotation-rick-porcello-wade-miley-clay-buchholz

 

Interesting article. I happen to like Verducci, and the comment about the starting rotations in the AL East and the lack of Cy Young votes was pretty eye-opening. Of course, the real question is, can we get to the WS with this rotation. That, I think, is a little more problematic.

 

 

I agree with what Verducci is saying. Too many people are making too big a deal out of the "no ace" issue. As the article states, this is not going to be a top 3 rotation, but with the offense and the defense that the Sox have, our middle of the pack rotation should be fine. Also, I think too many people downplay the value of pitchers who can give the team 200 innings.

[cp176]

I agree with what Verducci is saying. Too many people are making too big a deal out of the "no ace" issue. As the article states, this is not going to be a top 3 rotation, but with the offense and the defense that the Sox have, our middle of the pack rotation should be fine. Also, I think too many people downplay the value of pitchers who can give the team 200 innings.

 

200 innings in this day and age is a great accomplishment by any pitcher. Unfortunately at some point in time the quality of the innings pitched has to be considered. Spring is what it is. It might have more meaning to me than to some and that is ok but at this point in time I am not sure I am looking at a middle of the pack rotation. I do like the way Porcello has looked. I think they might be stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place though. No one really wants to see them give up any potential young stars for an aging veteran pitcher. I am not sure that trading for one pitcher now would make any sense at all. If they are still in the hunt later on then maybe - if they aren't, go young and find out what you have. After Porcello, I haven't seen much that excites me. Once again though, spring training might mean more to me than just getting your work in.

[GomesBeard]

Well, if all of these guys currently in the rotation get to or near 200 innings this year, I think that will mean that they've all pitched well. With the young arms the Sox have, and the ability to go out and get a guy like Hammels, I think that will happen if someone falters.

[cp176]

Well, if all of these guys currently in the rotation get to or near 200 innings this year, I think that will mean that they've all pitched well. With the young arms the Sox have, and the ability to go out and get a guy like Hammels, I think that will happen if someone falters.

 

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see it happen but if all 5 of the guys projected to start go 200 or close each it would be an absolute miracle. Personally I think that we are very apt to see both Owens and Rodriguez sooner as opposed to later. Maybe even Johnson. I also hope that they can keep Barnes out of the bullpen. A good not even best case scenario is that they keep all of their young arms and give them the time to develop this year. Looks like Wright might get the first look though.

[GomesBeard]

Funny juxtaposition....

 

[cp176]

Funny juxtaposition....

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]243[/ATTACH]

 

That's great. All a matter of how you look at things. If he doesn't find a few more mph on that fastball, I'm thinking we will be seeing the second one more than we want to.

[Ogden]

Funny juxtaposition....

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=243&stc=1

 

 

How many years is it going to take him growing a normal beard?

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Porcello and Miley were the only ones to reach 200IP last year, and that was the first time Porcello has done it. Masterson looks done, Buchholz has been miserable and fragile for awhile now and Kelly is already hurt. You have a better chance of nobody reaching 200 than you do of all 5

[Kimmi]

200 innings in this day and age is a great accomplishment by any pitcher. Unfortunately at some point in time the quality of the innings pitched has to be considered. Spring is what it is. It might have more meaning to me than to some and that is ok but at this point in time I am not sure I am looking at a middle of the pack rotation. I do like the way Porcello has looked. I think they might be stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place though. No one really wants to see them give up any potential young stars for an aging veteran pitcher. I am not sure that trading for one pitcher now would make any sense at all. If they are still in the hunt later on then maybe - if they aren't, go young and find out what you have. After Porcello, I haven't seen much that excites me. Once again though, spring training might mean more to me than just getting your work in.

 

 

Sure, the quality of innings pitched is important. This rotation won't be lights out, but they should be able to keep the team in most games to give the offense a chance to win. I would prefer the rotation be stronger at the expense of offense, but an average pitching staff with a potent offense can get the job done as well.

[Kimmi]

Porcello and Miley were the only ones to reach 200IP last year, and that was the first time Porcello has done it. Masterson looks done, Buchholz has been miserable and fragile for awhile now and Kelly is already hurt. You have a better chance of nobody reaching 200 than you do of all 5

 

 

Is this where I'm supposed to ask you for the chart?

 

Look, we know that our rotation isn't going to be our strength. We still have just as good a chance, if not better, of making it to the postseason. IMO, the Sox can sustain some minor injury problems to their starters better than the Yanks can. We have the offense to cover for them.

[Kimmi]

How many years is it going to take him growing a normal beard?

 

 

LOL That is not a very flattering picture of Clay.

[cp176]

Is this where I'm supposed to ask you for the chart?

 

Look, we know that our rotation isn't going to be our strength. We still have just as good a chance, if not better, of making it to the postseason. IMO, the Sox can sustain some minor injury problems to their starters better than the Yanks can. We have the offense to cover for them.

 

I whole heartedly agree - choose for me - A or B

 

Porcello - Bucholtz - Miley - Masterson - Kelly (A)

 

Porcello - Owens - Rodriguez - Johnson - Wright (

 

Obviously to most it would be A right? I'm not sure there really would be that much difference. I wonder which of those two groups has the better chance of holding up for a whole season? Outside of Porcello, there is a good chance that at least 2 if not 3 of those guys in the B group will in the first 5 at some point if the Sox do not make a move. Whoops forgot about Barnes. Substitute him for Wright.

[cp176]

I whole heartedly agree - choose for me - A or B

 

Porcello - Bucholtz - Miley - Masterson - Kelly (A)

 

Porcello - Owens - Rodriguez - Johnson - Wright (

 

Obviously to most it would be A right? I'm not sure there really would be that much difference. I wonder which of those two groups has the better chance of holding up for a whole season? Outside of Porcello, there is a good chance that at least 2 if not 3 of those guys in the B group will in the first 5 at some point if the Sox do not make a move. Whoops forgot about Barnes. Substitute him for Wright.

 

 

I do not want to see Barnes moved to the bullpen.

[jacksonianmarch]

B would have some massive growing pains. A gives you your best chance to win this year, but probably not much better

[cp176]

B would have some massive growing pains. A gives you your best chance to win this year, but probably not much better

 

That is what I was hoping to see. I agree. Obviously not going to happen soon as well it shouldn't but the day might come when we see most if not all of those face up with us. I have to admit my love for the power arms.

[Kimmi]

I whole heartedly agree - choose for me - A or B

 

Porcello - Bucholtz - Miley - Masterson - Kelly (A)

 

Porcello - Owens - Rodriguez - Johnson - Wright (

 

Obviously to most it would be A right? I'm not sure there really would be that much difference. I wonder which of those two groups has the better chance of holding up for a whole season? Outside of Porcello, there is a good chance that at least 2 if not 3 of those guys in the B group will in the first 5 at some point if the Sox do not make a move. Whoops forgot about Barnes. Substitute him for Wright.

 

 

I'm going with A. IMO, it's always much riskier having more than one rookie in your rotation. I am sure that some of those guys in group B will be up with the Sox at some point, but I don't want them as our projected starting 5. I am also fairly certain that the Sox will add a starting pitcher before the trade deadline.

[cp176]

I'm going with A. IMO, it's always much riskier having more than one rookie in your rotation. I am sure that some of those guys in group B will be up with the Sox at some point, but I don't want them as our projected starting 5. I am also fairly certain that the Sox will add a starting pitcher before the trade deadline.

 

Obviously A won't happen but it is interesting. Over the long haul, I'm just not sure there would be much difference and they might even find a little gem in there. I hope you are right about them making an addition to their staff but I'm just not sure it will happen.

[GomesBeard]

Well. we're off an running today! Hoping for a good season. Pundit's predictions seem to be a little scattered re: AL East and play-offs, but I am hoping for a competitive season and making the play-offs. With this pitching staff, assuming good health, I can see the Sox making the play-offs, but it's not a deep-into-the-postseason sort of staff with no ace that can be a stopper. So unless that changes, I don't see a deep run.

 

I'll say 86 - 88 wins and we win the division but lose in the first round. Which would still be a successful season in my books, coming from last.

[Kimmi]

Well. we're off an running today! Hoping for a good season. Pundit's predictions seem to be a little scattered re: AL East and play-offs, but I am hoping for a competitive season and making the play-offs. With this pitching staff, assuming good health, I can see the Sox making the play-offs, but it's not a deep-into-the-postseason sort of staff with no ace that can be a stopper. So unless that changes, I don't see a deep run.

 

I'll say 86 - 88 wins and we win the division but lose in the first round. Which would still be a successful season in my books, coming from last.

 

 

First goal is to make it to the playoffs because once there, anything can happen. Even though an "ace" is not necessary for postseason success, I'm guessing that if we do make it to postseason, it will be partly because there was an ace type on this team, either one that was acquired before the trade deadline or one that emerged from the current roster.

[Bellhorn04]

92 wins and the division title.

[seabeachfred]

Well. we're off an running today! Hoping for a good season. Pundit's predictions seem to be a little scattered re: AL East and play-offs, but I am hoping for a competitive season and making the play-offs. With this pitching staff, assuming good health, I can see the Sox making the play-offs, but it's not a deep-into-the-postseason sort of staff with no ace that can be a stopper. So unless that changes, I don't see a deep run.

 

I'll say 86 - 88 wins and we win the division but lose in the first round. Which would still be a successful season in my books, coming from last.

 

A division title would certainly qualify as a successful season from where I sit Gomes, and you mentioned why. Last year was a real downer and I just feel that this season has got to be a better on. Heck, I even predicted an AL East Title a month ago so my butt is on the line. It would be nice if Porcello, Miley and Buchholz form a decent threesome to get us going. I'm sorry I don't have the same confidence in Masterson after his collapse last season but you never know. As for Kelly and his "Cy Young" award, just where is he and when will he be ready to get back on the field?

[jd98]

81-81

 

Offense 3rd in AL in runs, pitching 13th in ERA

[a700hitter]

They signed a couple of innings eating workhorses in Miley and Porcello. However, I don't think they will get enough of innings, consistency, and good health from the other other 3 --- Masterson, Buchhloz and Kelly. Our depth is insuficient and very thin. I think the starters will start to break down early a nd the team will struggle to stay at .500. I think we finish 3rd, behind the O's and the Jays and just ahead of the Yankees.

[User Name]

The Jays? They have even less pitching depth and just as many question marks as the Sox, specially with Stroman out for the year.

[BornToRun]

My prediction is that we slaughter our enemies and bathe in their blood.

[Palodios]

They signed a couple of innings eating workhorses in Miley and Porcello. However, I don't think they will get enough of innings, consistency, and good health from the other other 3 --- Masterson, Buchhloz and Kelly. Our depth is insuficient and very thin. I think the starters will start to break down early a nd the team will struggle to stay at .500. I think we finish 3rd, behind the O's and the Jays and just ahead of the Yankees.

 

While I'm not thrilled with the front five, the depth shined in spring training. Brian Johnson and Steven Wright both had excellent starts to the year. Owens looked bad, but he is also still very young.

[sk7326]

86-76, wins the division. The 86-76 probably undersells what I think of the Sox qualitywise, but the division is so even that outside of Tampa, it is hard to predict anybody getting away from the field. Now the last two years, in fact a monster team emerged, but predicting four teams around 83-87 wins is the percentage play.