The all inclusive "2015 Predictions" thread

[iortiz]

Ugh.

 

Stats can also help one predict future performance. Please note that I said "help".

 

If not, no one would bother with them.

 

mmmmm.... Wonder where did I say the opposite?. As I said, stats are a great point to start, but once a game starts, your eyes are your best ally.

 

In other words Spud, my models which are based on stats, advanced math methods and rest on the IBM SPSS software help me pick the best matches and lines from a pull. Once I pick those games and lines, and once those games start, my intuition/knowledge/eyes/expirience are my only allies If I want to close the original bet ticket or simply raise the original bet.

Edited March 5, 2015 by iortiz

[jacksonianmarch]

The more I hear of the NY circus surrounding ARod, the more concerned I get. Without a lot of health, we could be a last place team.

[BSN07]

The more I hear of the NY circus surrounding ARod, the more concerned I get. Without a lot of health, we could be a last place team.

 

Pretty much my exact prediction lol

[wyo-sox]

The more I hear of the NY circus surrounding ARod, the more concerned I get. Without a lot of health, we could be a last place team.

 

Too early to get excited or concerned. Be calm buddy. One thing I've learned in my short baseball followings.... nobody knows anything about predicting anything.

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure I like the concept of the labelling. How about someone who has has strong values? traditionalist? I do not believe that people's lives as well as beliefs can or should be categorized? My first question when I am hit with a label is who is doing the labelling? It's ok if you do not believe that there are such things as clutch hitters or that there are teams in all athletic realms that win so much that it becomes habit forming. If you believe you can do something strongly enough, I might take a chance on you regardless of what the stats say. You present some great arguments many of which I already agree with. Regardless of luck, when you take the intangibles out of the game that sometimes go against what you call the stats, the game is missing something. There are elements at play in the hearts and minds of athletes that you cannot measure.

 

 

Don't take the labeling personally. I'm not trying to label anyone. I just think it's an easy term to use when talking about old school versus new school. My dad is very much a traditionalist, and FTR, he drives me crazy with his baseball stubborness sometimes. That doesn't mean I don't respect his baseball knowledge or that I think any less of him.

 

As far as intangibles go, I am a very strong believer in them. I don't discount how human elements affect the game. For instance, I very much believe that the pitcher/catcher relationship plays a significant role in how a pitcher performs.

[Kimmi]

The more I hear of the NY circus surrounding ARod, the more concerned I get. Without a lot of health, we could be a last place team.

 

 

As one of my NYY friends suggests, the ARod circus is probably doing guys like Gregorious, Beltran, and Teixeira a world of good, keeping the attention of of them. Which is really too bad. I kind of like hearing about the other concerns the Yankees have. ;-)

[cp176]

Don't take the labeling personally. I'm not trying to label anyone. I just think it's an easy term to use when talking about old school versus new school. My dad is very much a traditionalist, and FTR, he drives me crazy with his baseball stubborness sometimes. That doesn't mean I don't respect his baseball knowledge or that I think any less of him.

 

As far as intangibles go, I am a very strong believer in them. I don't discount how human elements affect the game. For instance, I very much believe that the pitcher/catcher relationship plays a significant role in how a pitcher performs.

 

Not to worry - I didn't take it personally. In all honesty, I see the two sides to almost everything. There is no black or white as far as I am concerned. Normally I do need to see some sort of proof to believe in something but sometimes it just isn't there. I very much believe that your study of sabermetrics is good for you and the game. I definitely see its value. It just doesn't trump everything else in my mind.

[Ogden]

The more I hear of the NY circus surrounding ARod, the more concerned I get. Without a lot of health, we could be a last place team.

 

 

I'd be more worried about the starting pitching, 2B, SS, and RF than the ARod situation.

[Navafan29]

The Sox will have a lot of high scoring games and just manage to hang in the wild card race until the trade deadline. Then, they trade for a good pitcher and manage to make the wild card game. Red Sox lose the wild card game to a division rival, but then something stupid happens to the rival in the next round and they get eliminated as well.

[seabeachfred]

Not to worry - I didn't take it personally. In all honesty, I see the two sides to almost everything. There is no black or white as far as I am concerned. Normally I do need to see some sort of proof to believe in something but sometimes it just isn't there. I very much believe that your study of sabermetrics is good for you and the game. I definitely see its value. It just doesn't trump everything else in my mind.

 

Just for the record, Kimmi and I have gone a few verbal rounds but I like her very much. She's my foil but a very loyal Red Sox fan who is pretty much always up beat, and, besides, she's my avatar helper.

[seabeachfred]

I'd be more worried about the starting pitching, 2B, SS, and RF than the ARod situation.

 

I get a case of the hives Ogden when anyone predicts a last place finish for the Yankees in any season. Except for 1966 and maybe one year in the 80's they don't finish last and the AL East seems to even and wide open that they could finish first as easily as we could. It seems to me going back over my 65-plus years as a fan Dame Fortune has shined on them a lot more than that of the other kind of fortune.

[seabeachfred]

The Sox will have a lot of high scoring games and just manage to hang in the wild card race until the trade deadline. Then, they trade for a good pitcher and manage to make the wild card game. Red Sox lose the wild card game to a division rival, but then something stupid happens to the rival in the next round and they get eliminated as well.

 

That's not the way I have it Navafan and you're raining on my parade.......but, then again, you could turn out to be right.

[Ogden]

I get a case of the hives Ogden when anyone predicts a last place finish for the Yankees in any season. Except for 1966 and maybe one year in the 80's they don't finish last and the AL East seems to even and wide open that they could finish first as easily as we could. It seems to me going back over my 65-plus years as a fan Dame Fortune has shined on them a lot more than that of the other kind of fortune.

 

 

The Yankees have more money than anybody so they have the option, if they so choose, to stack the team. For whatever reason, they have not spent wisely or been unable to convince enough high class free agents to come to NY or built a high quality farm system. I have no idea if they will pull something together this season, but they always have the possibility because of who they are.

[Kimmi]

The Yankees have more money than anybody so they have the option, if they so choose, to stack the team. For whatever reason, they have not spent wisely or been unable to convince enough high class free agents to come to NY or built a high quality farm system. I have no idea if they will pull something together this season, but they always have the possibility because of who they are.

 

 

You can never count the Yankees out for this reason. Even if they don't add another player, there is no team in the division that is strong enough to distance themselves far enough from the Yankees to keep them out of contention. That said, it's still fun to tweak them whenever possible, and ARod gives us so many opportunities.

[Behindenemylines]

The Yankees have more money than anybody so they have the option, if they so choose, to stack the team. For whatever reason, they have not spent wisely or been unable to convince enough high class free agents to come to NY or built a high quality farm system. I have no idea if they will pull something together this season, but they always have the possibility because of who they are.

 

The Yankees are kind of stuck between getting younger and having too many older players with big contracts. I think the Sox youth has a lot to do with that. The Yanks see that the pieces are in place that the Sox can be good for along time because of the infusion of youth. They probably feel if they don't start addressing that they will be behind the Sox for along time. That is why I was shocked that the Sox out bid the Yanks for Moncada.

[Palodios]

The Yanks have finished 2nd and 3rd the last two seasons, and their team has not added or subtracted much major talent. They need everything to fall their way to get back to October.

[Behindenemylines]

The Yanks have finished 2nd and 3rd the last two seasons, and their team has not added or subtracted much major talent. They need everything to fall their way to get back to October.

 

The Yanks would need a season were everything goes right to make the playoffs. Like the Sox had in 2013.

[Kimmi]

The Yanks have finished 2nd and 3rd the last two seasons, and their team has not added or subtracted much major talent. They need everything to fall their way to get back to October.

 

 

IMO, their downfall will be their offense. They really did nothing to address their lack of it this offseason.

[Ogden]

IMO, their downfall will be their offense. They really did nothing to address their lack of it this offseason.

 

 

1. Masahiro Tanaka

2. CC Sabathia

3. Michael Pineda

4. Nathan Eovaldi

5. Chris Capuano

6. Scott Baker

7. Ivan Nova

 

Their offense will be their downfall? A guy whose health could be a crap shoot, a fat guy who's been hurt and has trouble breaking a pane of glass, an injury waiting to happen, a mediocre pitcher who looks like half the Sox rotation, a has-been who is hurt, a guy who is going to get waived, and a less than mediocre guy who is hurt. I don't think their offense is their number one worry ... but that's just me.

[Kimmi]

1. Masahiro Tanaka

2. CC Sabathia

3. Michael Pineda

4. Nathan Eovaldi

5. Chris Capuano

6. Scott Baker

7. Ivan Nova

 

Their offense will be their downfall? A guy whose health could be a crap shoot, a fat guy who's been hurt and has trouble breaking a pane of glass, an injury waiting to happen, a mediocre pitcher who looks like half the Sox rotation, a has-been who is hurt, a guy who is going to get waived, and a less than mediocre guy who is hurt. I don't think their offense is their number one worry ... but that's just me.

 

 

They have a lot of question marks in their rotation, but if healthy (I understand that is a big if), that rotation should be really good. Tanaka and Pineda are a 1-2 punch that could be tough to beat. Last year, the Yankees were 8th in the league in runs allowed (not great, but better than their offense fared) and first in the league pitching WAR. They have an improved defense this year, along with a pen that should be very, very good.

 

They were 13th in the league in runs scored and 11 in the league in offensive WAR. Scoring runs was a problem for them last year, and I don't see where they have improved in that area.

[pruneface]

They have a lot of question marks in their rotation, but if healthy (I understand that is a big if), that rotation should be really good. Tanaka and Pineda are a 1-2 punch that could be tough to beat. Last year, the Yankees were 8th in the league in runs allowed (not great, but better than their offense fared) and first in the league pitching WAR. They have an improved defense this year, along with a pen that should be very, very good.

 

They were 13th in the league in runs scored and 11 in the league in offensive WAR. Scoring runs was a problem for them last year, and I don't see where they have improved in that area.

The offense was inexplicably horrible. I expect they should be better. I think the Yanks could surprise people this year, though the WS is probably out of the question. No skin off my back; not only am I a Sox fan, they've won enough, don't ya think?

[User Name]

The Yanks would need a season were everything goes right to make the playoffs. Like the Sox had in 2013.

 

Except that that is a common yet often spouted misconception. The Sox had a 1-2 closer tandem to start the year, yet both get injured and don't throw a single pitch after May. they lose Buch in the midst of a career year for half the season. Pedroia plays banged up all year with an injury that saps his power. WMB gets injured then sucks. Stephen Drew gets the concussion right off the bat and takes significant time to get going. Ortiz, Lackey, Ross, Victorino and the before mentioned players all spent time on the DL.

 

Not a cinderella story, but rather an impressive display of organizational depth. There was luck involved in the WS title (there always is) but come on.

[jacksonianmarch]

Our offense has Headley for an entire season and Stephen Drew without a 3 month sabbatical. Like I've said before, we've got 6 of our 9 starters 31 or younger and nearly everyone underachieved to some degree. We aren't gonna be #1 offensively, but we won't be bottom of the barrel again. It comes down to SP. If Tanaka and Pineda stay healthy, we're gonna make the playoffs

[Kimmi]

The offense was inexplicably horrible. I expect they should be better. I think the Yanks could surprise people this year, though the WS is probably out of the question. No skin off my back; not only am I a Sox fan, they've won enough, don't ya think?

 

 

I am not counting the Yankees out of the playoffs. While I think the Sox are the current favorites to win the division, the division is more or less up for grabs, depending on who gets the fewest bad breaks in terms of injuries and underperformances. So yes, the Yankees could very well make the playoffs. Either way, the potential of the Yankees pitching scares me a lot more than their offense does.

[Kimmi]

Except that that is a common yet often spouted misconception. The Sox had a 1-2 closer tandem to start the year, yet both get injured and don't throw a single pitch after May. they lose Buch in the midst of a career year for half the season. Pedroia plays banged up all year with an injury that saps his power. WMB gets injured then sucks. Stephen Drew gets the concussion right off the bat and takes significant time to get going. Ortiz, Lackey, Ross, Victorino and the before mentioned players all spent time on the DL.

 

Not a cinderella story, but rather an impressive display of organizational depth. There was luck involved in the WS title (there always is) but come on.

 

 

Thank you.

[Palodios]

Our offense has Headley for an entire season and Stephen Drew without a 3 month sabbatical. Like I've said before, we've got 6 of our 9 starters 31 or younger and nearly everyone underachieved to some degree. We aren't gonna be #1 offensively, but we won't be bottom of the barrel again. It comes down to SP. If Tanaka and Pineda stay healthy, we're gonna make the playoffs

 

Headley and Drew are career .700 OPS guys with plenty of question marks. They may add great defense, but they won't fix the offense. Of your "6 of 9 starters 31 and younger", 5 are 31 years old. I agree though, a healthy Tanaka/Pineda would win them a lot of series against weak AL East rotations.

[Kimmi]

Looking at Yankees projections for next season:

 

Davenport - Runs allowed 637, 3rd in the league behind only Oakland and Seattle

Runs scored 662, 10th in the league

 

PECOTA - Runs allowed 699, 6th in the league

Runs scored 690, 10th in the league

 

Zips - Runs allowed/game 4.08, 6th in the league

Runs scored/game 4.13, 10th in the league

 

The Yankees pitching is projected to be better than average while their offense is projected to be worse than average.

[Spudboy]

Except that that is a common yet often spouted misconception. The Sox had a 1-2 closer tandem to start the year, yet both get injured and don't throw a single pitch after May. they lose Buch in the midst of a career year for half the season. Pedroia plays banged up all year with an injury that saps his power. WMB gets injured then sucks. Stephen Drew gets the concussion right off the bat and takes significant time to get going. Ortiz, Lackey, Ross, Victorino and the before mentioned players all spent time on the DL.

 

Not a Cinderella story, but rather an impressive display of organizational depth. There was luck involved in the WS title (there always is) but come on.

 

^ This.

[Bellhorn04]

Our offense has Headley for an entire season and Stephen Drew without a 3 month sabbatical. Like I've said before, we've got 6 of our 9 starters 31 or younger and nearly everyone underachieved to some degree. We aren't gonna be #1 offensively, but we won't be bottom of the barrel again. It comes down to SP. If Tanaka and Pineda stay healthy, we're gonna make the playoffs

 

I agree, if Tanaka and Pineda stay healthy all year the Yankees could surprise a lot of people and could certainly be in the playoffs.

[Ogden]

Pineda has great stuff but I'd lay 2-5 he will have shoulder problems and has trouble making 20 starts (Monopoly money only).