A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

Bauers? OF/1b/DH

guy puts it all together in his age  29 and 30 seasons. He could be someone they don’t have to spend a ton on and get the power numbers. He only made 2.7m in. 2026.

If people don't trust Mead, then Bauers should be mistrusted too. 

.672 before this year.

That sample size was almost 2000 PAs!

[moonslav59]

Now that Eaton is gone, we have 46 players on the 40 and 60 Day IL. That includes 3 players about to be free agents: Gray, Sandoval & IKF. That get's it down to 43.

3 DFA or Trade:

Burgos

Cheng

Olds

Bubble Keep or Trade:

Rivera

Kelly (no options)

Jones (no options)

Moran (no options)

Possible Rule 5 Adds:

Wehunt

Jo Garcia

Maybe Mullins or Brannon

I'm not see an issue, even if we add 3-4 Rule 5 guys and FAs.

Once we hit 5-6, it gets interesting, but then again, trading Duran, Yoshida or Story could free up a slot or two as well.

Note: Arias does not need to be added to be protected.

[moonslav59]

Cheng and Eaton crossewd of MVP's list. Next up: Burgos?

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Cheng and Eaton crossewd of MVP's list. Next up: Burgos?

Moran trade, then Burgos DFA? 

Burgos actually has MiLB options FWIW. He could stick around. Burgos did pitch fairly well down the stretch.

Zack Kelly trade if the keep Burgos? My original post is what counts for 4 for 4 though. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Moran trade, then Burgos DFA? 

Burgos actually has MiLB options FWIW. He could stick around. Burgos did pitch fairly well down the stretch.

Zack Kelly trade if the keep Burgos? My original post is what counts for 4 for 4 though. 

Yes, I have also mentioned trading Kelly and Moran- both out of options. On Moran, I think he has talent- not so much with Kelly. I like Moran way more than Olds, Burgos, Kelly and even a Mulling add to the 40.

His no options makes it tough to keep him, but maybe we trade Slaten.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I have also mentioned trading Kelly and Moran- both out of options. On Moran, I think he has talent- not so much with Kelly. I like Moran way more than Olds, Burgos, Kelly and even a Mulling add to the 40.

His no options makes it tough to keep him, but maybe we trade Slaten.

Slaten is a high leverage arm who just gets injured a lot. He still has 3 options left too. Seems unlikely he's traded, but everything is on the table. 

[notin]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I have also mentioned trading Kelly and Moran- both out of options. On Moran, I think he has talent- not so much with Kelly. I like Moran way more than Olds, Burgos, Kelly and even a Mulling add to the 40.

His no options makes it tough to keep him, but maybe we trade Slaten.

Why trade Slaten?

Kelly and Burgos are as good as gone.  Olds is on the fence (my theory), and Moran is a question mark.

Keep Slaten…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Why trade Slaten?

Kelly and Burgos are as good as gone.  Olds is on the fence (my theory), and Moran is a question mark.

Keep Slaten…

I liked Olds. If he can keep the bb rate down, he has value as an up and down guy the next few years. We've seen worse in the bullpen that's for sure. 

[southpaw777]

18 hours ago, NHNative said:

I do like Jake Bauer.

 

18 hours ago, NHNative said:

I do like Jake Bauer.

He’s an interesting name out there this year. I think the Sox would be wise to check in on him.

[southpaw777]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If people don't trust Mead, then Bauers should be mistrusted too. 

.672 before this year.

That sample size was almost 2000 PAs!

Seems he’s made some adjustments that have made a big difference. And the analytics nerds say the underlying numbers are repeatable. 
he’s worth looking into for sure. Seems to be the Sox speed nowadays anyway…

[notin]

26 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

 

He’s an interesting name out there this year. I think the Sox would be wise to check in on him.

Ty France is probably a better option for Fenway.  Josh Bell is a lot less risky.  Teoscar Hernandez also is very likely available…

[notin]

35 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

Seems he’s made some adjustments that have made a big difference. And the analytics nerds say the underlying numbers are repeatable. 
he’s worth looking into for sure. Seems to be the Sox speed nowadays anyway…

Mead is also only 26 and was a BA Top 100 prospect (#65) as recently as 2024…

[moonslav59]

19 hours ago, NHNative said:

I do like Jake Bauer.

His history before this year was not good.

(Neither was Mead's, and I'm high on him, so I'm not being consistent on this.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Why trade Slaten?

Kelly and Burgos are as good as gone.  Olds is on the fence (my theory), and Moran is a question mark.

Keep Slaten…

I'm not handing Slaten away. He has real value.

I'm sick of injury prone pitchers. If we don't get a nice return, keep him.

Apparently, I like Moran more than others.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His history before this year was not good.

(Neither was Mead's, and I'm high on him, so I'm not being consistent on this.)

Less surprising that a guy breaks out at 26 than is almost out of baseball and breaks out at 30 after a middling career. 

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not handing Slaten away. He has real value.

I'm sick of injury prone pitchers. If we don't get a nice return, keep him.

Apparently, I like Moran more than others.

Moran wasn't on the playoff roster, right? 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Less surprising that a guy breaks out at 26 than is almost out of baseball and breaks out at 30 after a middling career. 

Yup.

I'd pass on Bauers.

[moonslav59]

Sonny Gray is officially a FA, now.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Moran wasn't on the playoff roster, right? 

That's pretty telling, when you figure all the pitchers out injured, but the weird thing to me was Crochet after such little time in rehab. Olds and Gamboa over Moran pretty much shows what they thought about Moran.

He's probably traded within days.

My point about Slaten was not that Moran is better, but if we got something good for Slaten and kept Moran on the 26, it might be less of a drop off than from Slaten to Kelly/Burgos/Song.

[southpaw777]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Mead is also only 26 and was a BA Top 100 prospect (#65) as recently as 2024…

I’m looking forward to seeing Mead play in Fenway. Power numbers should take a tick upward like Contreras. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

I’m looking forward to seeing Mead play in Fenway. Power numbers should take a tick upward like Contreras. 

I might be a homer on this, but I trust his half season in 2026 was legit.

Double his numbers and even Red might approve: .253 34 96.

70 XBHs

.353 OBP

.498 SLG

.851 OPS

It's kinda like we are signing Mead as a FA this winter. (No Early)

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Less surprising that a guy breaks out at 26 than is almost out of baseball and breaks out at 30 after a middling career. 

445 ABs by Mead before this year, and age 26.004.  1,704 by Bauer and age 31.024.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/29/2026 at 1:49 PM, moonslav59 said:

I would say, he's spent a lot on positions of greater need than DH, but here we are: DH is now a top 2-3 high need area.

Top Sox OPS 2025-2026 (on current roster)

200+ PAs

.901 Contreras

.823 Gasper

.803 Anthony

.782 Romy

.778 Abreu

.736 Rafaela

.727 Seigler

.725 Yoshida

.710 Durbin

.708 Sogard

.706 Story

.688 Rutschman

.665 Monasterio

.664 KC

.586 Wong

.580 Casas

 

Look at the shift from 2024-2025:

.859 Anthony (Gotta wonder why we had any hope on this clown)

.805 Duran (Already showing decline)

.786 Romy (Who?)

.784 Abreu (Ready for a career year? NOPE)

.742 Yoshida (Did not look like a one of our weaker need areas, last winter.)

.740 Story (Word is out, many Sox posters projected a repeat of '25)

.730 Casas (I mean, why sign Willson?)

.726 Narvaez (Yup, I fell for the hype.)

.688 Wong (Mr. Consistent)

.686 Rafaela (Talk to Fred.)

.664 KC

.656 Sogard

 

This is interesting: 2023-2024:

.838 Casas

.832 Duran (These top two are laughed at, now.)

.794 Abreu

.775 Yoshida

.723 Romy (always in the top 5)

.720 Wong (our Catcher of the future!)

.664 Rafaela

.630 Story

 

sorry i am sure there is good info here but it is too long to comprehend.  In any event providing a lockout doesn't affect FA I expect to hear constant reports that the Sox are interested in this guy, that guy, and some other guy but simply another Durbin type or 2 and call it an offseason. Given the last several offseaons and a low market team winning this WS why would any Sox fan expect any different?

 

I truly expect JH to be on the side of the low market teams in negotiations this offseason. No more new shiny toys for RSN.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I truly expect JH to be on the side of the low market teams in negotiations this offseason. No more new shiny toys for RSN.

Parrish the thought. But you're right... expect the Sox to add a hitter, but he'll be more like Larry Parrish than Lance Parrish: bb-ref most similar batters: Nick Castellanos for Larry, Sal Perez for the Lance (dang, he might actually turn out to be Castellanos).

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Parrish the thought. But you're right... expect the Sox to add a hitter, but he'll be more like Larry Parrish than Lance Parrish: bb-ref most similar batters: Nick Castellanos for Larry, Sal Perez for the Lance (dang, he might actually turn out to be Castellanos).

Sooooo…. Nobody under 70?

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I expect to hear constant reports that the Sox are interested in this guy, that guy, and some other guy but simply another Durbin type or 2 and call it an offseason.

This is the same for almost every team.  Except for guys like Soto, Ohtani, Skubal, etc., every team is interested in every player.  Assuming we are adding a hitter, I can almost guarantee that we will be mentioned for Sato, Aroz, Suzuki, Lowe, and probably several other hitters.  Same with adding an SP.  Teams like TO, are connected to EVERYONE.

IRT to Durban, if we can add another minimum wage, 4.4 bWAR hitter, I'll be pretty happy.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

This is the same for almost every team.  Except for guys like Soto, Ohtani, Skubal, etc., every team is interested in every player.  Assuming we are adding a hitter, I can almost guarantee that we will be mentioned for Sato, Aroz, Suzuki, Lowe, and probably several other hitters.  Same with adding an SP.  Teams like TO, are connected to EVERYONE.

IRT to Durban, if we can add another minimum wage, 4.4 bWAR hitter, I'll be pretty happy.

and i am pretty sure we will miss out on all those except maybe the last one standing. I don't mind Durbin but to be honest he was a consolation prize to all we missed out on.  Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber just to name 3.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and i am pretty sure we will miss out on all those except maybe the last one standing. I don't mind Durbin but to be honest he was a consolation prize to all we missed out on.  Bregman, Alonso, Schwarber just to name 3.

I don’t think Alonso and Schwarber were as in play as this implies or that either had anything to do with interest in Durbin…

[moonslav59]

16 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

 Given the last several offseaons and a low market team winning this WS why would any Sox fan expect any different?

If we make the same amount and significantly plus additions this winter as last, we will probably win a ring.

To your point, I seriously doubt we can or will make as many plus moves this winter.

1. We don't have the trade capital we had last winter and this summer. (One could view the 3 major summer moves- Mead, AR & Miller) as pre-winter deals, if it makes you feel better.

2. Counting on JH to continue spending more and more, as he has the last 2-3 years can never be counted on. (Tax budget has increased 3 straight seasons and EOY budgets for 2 straight seasons.)

EOY: $188M in '24 to $206M in '26

CB Tax: $225M in '23 to $273M in '26

3. We don't have any major farm impact players that are MLB ready than Arias. Now, some may argue having a top 5 prospect ready for the bigs is better than most teams, and maybe they are right, but the rest of the "MLB ready" prospects look mediocre, at best. That's not so bad, since they are only needed as 3rd or 4th on positional depth charts, but  they reek of nonproductive projection players.

C- Jo Garcia might have some nice upside, but he not even highly rated on soxprospects,com

1B- Brannon is probably a longer shot than Garcia. Gonzales is like a 2028 ETA prospect.

2B- Rodgers/Romero

3B- Romero/Winnay

SS- Arias is the only one

OF- KC, Ward & maybe Jackson or Gutierrez

DH- Hudson White is a long longshot. (Cespedes?) Ronny Hernandez?

We have a pretty nice bench of MLB utility players, so maybe we don't need much, but the lack of major farm assets will eventually catch up to us.

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping Brez & Co. realize we are at a point where we need to focus heavily on adding 1-3 top quality or near top players vs 3-5 pretty good players.

To me, getting one of these guys might be enough:

de la Cruz, Abrams, Suzuki or maybe Sato

Getting one of the above plus one from this group we be awesome (or two from this group:)

(Sato) Lowe, Chisholm, Arozarena, Otto Lopez, Gray, Nick Martinez, Peralta or Morejon

If we go for 3, maybe 2 from the second buch plus on of these, or one from above plus two of these:

Jeffers DH/C, King, Rogers, Pivetta, Happ, Bauers, Mahle, Bednar, Taira, Springer

(Arraez, G Torres. Holmes, Mize, Griffin, France, Varsho, Robert, Stephenson/ C Kelly, R Iglesias

Ideally, we trade Arias, Duran and others for de la Cruz and sign Suzuki and maybe someone like Pivetta. (Dump Yoshida)

1. L Antony DH

2. R Mead 2B

3. S de la Cruz SS

4. R Contreras 1B

5. R Suzuki LF

6. L Abreu RF

7. S Rutschman C

8. R Durbin 3B

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Story, Wong, Sogard, White/Jones or Gasper/Romy