A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they need to clear 4 spots right away from what Cotillo said.

Burgos DFA

Cheng DFA

Moran trade

Eaton trade

McAdam floated the idea of DFA'ing Campbell so that you take him off the 40 man, since nobody wants that contract. I think that's more likely to happen next offseason when his options expire. 

I don't normally get too involved in the 40-discussions, since most teams don't have 40 guys worth protecting.  But if we are thinning out the herd, who would we be protecting?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't normally get too involved in the 40-discussions, since most teams don't have 40 guys worth protecting.  But if we are thinning out the herd, who would we be protecting?

The initial moves are just thinning out the herd to add back all the IL guys. No matter what, they need to move 4 guys ASAP.

As for which Rule 5 guys might get added, maybe 2 of Wehunt, Garcia, Brannon, Mullins. 

[JoeBrady]

49 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Offseason officially starts today. Internet already loaded with crazy trade proposals for the Red Sox to trade their best prospects and proven youngsters for one guy to play shortstop...

... as if Bobby Whit or Elly or Abrams are even available -- or even great enough to bring a title to Boston without Tolle at the top of the rotation and Abreu manning RF.

Shortstop is not an area of need -- not when you already owe one guy $25 million to play there, and you have the AL's highest-ranked two-way prospect waiting to take over.

Boston is not one bat away from a deep October run. We just saw the best team in the American League -- a club with four or five bats better than any Red Sox not named Willson -- hit .182 in the World Series.

I pretty much agree on all points.  This forum often targets the Shiniest objects, who are seldom for sale.  Targeting SS, even though we have the #2 prospect in BB, doesn't strike me as intuitive.  And since you mentioned the Brewers, they had a .648 at SS (#26) while the Red Sox had a .600 (#22).  And TB had a .586 (#30).  And SD, Mil, Atl & TB were all bottom-8 in SS OPS.  Almost like teams prefer defense at SS.

[NHNative]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I pretty much agree on all points.  This forum often targets the Shiniest objects, who are seldom for sale.  Targeting SS, even though we have the #2 prospect in BB, doesn't strike me as intuitive.  And since you mentioned the Brewers, they had a .648 at SS (#26) while the Red Sox had a .600 (#22).  And TB had a .586 (#30).  And SD, Mil, Atl & TB were all bottom-8 in SS OPS.  Almost like teams prefer defense at SS.

As I have mentioned several times; I think our core team is solid, we just need an elite bat or at least a consistent contact hitter that can place the ball in the sweet spots when needed. Reproduce the mid season run.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I pretty much agree on all points.  This forum often targets the Shiniest objects, who are seldom for sale.  Targeting SS, even though we have the #2 prospect in BB, doesn't strike me as intuitive.  And since you mentioned the Brewers, they had a .648 at SS (#26) while the Red Sox had a .600 (#22).  And TB had a .586 (#30).  And SD, Mil, Atl & TB were all bottom-8 in SS OPS.  Almost like teams prefer defense at SS.

It's ok to cite regular season stats, but after watching the entire postseason, the best hitter for anyone was arguably Brewer SS Cooper Pratt. 

Now some may say the rookie just got challenged with a lot of good pitches to hit. But it's also possible he was developing into an above-average batter before our eyes vs. top competition... just like Jeremy Pena, when he was WS MVP a few years ago.

People can find stats to show how weak Milwaukee's offense has been the past two years when they won the most games in baseball. But there's no dispute the Brewers hit when it counts because they're good.

[NHNative]

And losing Gray means another pitcher.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, NHNative said:

And losing Gray means another pitcher.

I would just put Bello back in the rotation. 

[NHNative]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's ok to cite regular season stats, but after watching the entire postseason, the best hitter for anyone was arguably Brewer SS Cooper Pratt. 

Now some may say the rookie just got challenged with a lot of good pitches to hit. But it's also possible he was developing into an above-average batter before our eyes vs. top competition... just like Jeremy Pena, when he was WS MVP a few years ago.

People can find stats to show how weak Milwaukee's offense has been the past two years when they won the most games in baseball. But there's no dispute the Brewers hit when it counts because they're good.

Pratt may go very far. Murphy sure thinks so.

[NHNative]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I would just put Bello back in the rotation. 

Maybe enough--we sure like him over here.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

That opens 3 holes just to upgrade from Arias to Elly.  I like Elly, but the point of trading for a 3-year player is to win in the next three years.  Abreu + Durbin = 10.3 bWAR last year.  Bennett is our #4.  IMO, we'd be worse off, even in the first year.

Well I think in this scenario you're banking on Duran making some kind of comeback and your outfield is Duran/Rafaela/Anthony, Arias replaces Durbin as an infielder, and you go out and get a pitcher in FA.  Honeslty I'd be on board with all that if that pitcher was SKubal. 

This trade won't happen, but I was illustrating the type of trade it could possibly take.  The Reds want MLB talent, and you're going to have to open up holes to fill a hole so it may come down to what you are more comfortable buy in FA.  If you don't have a hole there well then plug up the one you create by trading. 

Sox will need to get creative, or bank on the roster they have

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Which is why he'd be fine at 2b. 

I agree, and I'm big on SS defense. I do think his bat outweighs his poor defense and is worth it more than Bogey did at SS.

Story at SS and Abrams at 2B (Arias traded) is a plus on offense, and may not be much worse than Abrams at SS and Mead/Story at 2B.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

 Targeting SS, even though we have the #2 prospect in BB, doesn't strike me as intuitive.  

This makes sense in a vacuum, but my idea would be to trade Arias plus others (maybe Duran) for a known SS who can hit. I'd prefer DLC over Abrams, due to defense, but we need a big bat and likely won't have the budget to just buy one.

Of course, I'd rather keep Arias and just sign 2 from Sate/BLowe/Chisholm and Suzuki/Arozarena?

[southpaw777]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Vaz?

Why not bring VTek back as a catcher?

Really? Vaz can still be a decent backup at 1m cap hit, and a good leader. Or we can find one floating out in free agent purgatory…BU catcher is not a really big deal. I’m trying to think like the Sox brass now. Cutting whatever fat I can.

[southpaw777]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Depth

With our minor league SP'er depth Paez, Wehunt Holobetz & Ziehl, I'm thinking we need to keep Houck, Crawford and Oviedo in hopes that 1-2 do well enough to fill the rotation depth needs, or maybe pitch from the pen and eat some meaningful innings.

The pen depth looks very shaky.

I'm not a big fan or Wong, but he has an option left, so maybe we add a catcher and keep him in AAA as the #3 Catcher. (We don't usually burn 3 slots on the 40, and if you count Gapser, that would be 4.)

Mead, Romy, Gasper and Sogard can all play 1B. Casas remains a long shot, but I'd keep him on the 40 into ST'ing.

Assuming Mead is the starting 2Bman, we have very nice depth: Romy, Sogard, Seigler & Monasterio. Story could play 2B, if Arias wins the SS job.

SS does not have much depth beyond Story or Arias. Monasterio is not a long term solution. Cheng is good on D. Sogard is not.

3B depth is kinda sketchy: Monasterio, Story, Cheng, Mead...

The OF had White, Jones and Duran, if he's still here. KC in AAA.

DH has too many to list.

Houck Crawford and Oviedo will cost about 9m. That’s too much for depth when we could find a couple arms for much less that probably haven’t been injured the last two seasons…

[southpaw777]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Offseason officially starts today. Internet already loaded with crazy trade proposals for the Red Sox to trade their best prospects and proven youngsters for one guy to play shortstop...

... as if Bobby Whit or Elly or Abrams are even available -- or even great enough to bring a title to Boston without Tolle at the top of the rotation and Abreu manning RF.

Shortstop is not an area of need -- not when you already owe one guy $25 million to play there, and you have the AL's highest-ranked two-way prospect waiting to take over.

Boston is not one bat away from a deep October run. We just saw the best team in the American League -- a club with four or five bats better than any Red Sox not named Willson -- hit .182 in the World Series.

I don’t think we need to make a big trade. Just a couple good FA signings. A RH starter and a RH power bat. Kind of like last year. 
 

[southpaw777]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

As I have mentioned several times; I think our core team is solid, we just need an elite bat or at least a consistent contact hitter that can place the ball in the sweet spots when needed. Reproduce the mid season run.

We have too many 250ish hitters. We need a guy who can hit 280-300. More consistency hitting the ball will help with 80% of our lineup going hot and cold. Also help with LOBs 🦞 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

We have too many 250ish hitters. We need a guy who can hit 280-300. More consistency hitting the ball will help with 80% of our lineup going hot and cold. Also help with LOBs 🦞 

Only 27 guys (qualified PA) hit above 280. Of them, Arozarena and Arraez are available. Prior to last season, Aro was a 250 career hitter. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we traded for a bigtime SS, we'd like trade Story and $22M for nada.

I disagree.  I think we are more likely to keep Story if we are actually trying to win and if we trade for a bigtime , we are trying to win.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Abrams is not a SS.  His OAA and FRV are both off-the charts bad.

Oh, please.  How did we do with Monasterio at SS?

In 2026, 2b, 3b and ss are mostly interchangeable.  

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

His DRS is better than Story

Talking about ideal defensive alignment is wasted breath.  Defensive versatility > ideal defensive alignment.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If SS is your main offensive concern, then you probably don't have an offensive concern.

We were bottom 5 or very close to it in offense and noodlebatted out of the playoffs 2 years in a row.  Offense is a concern.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, southpaw777 said:

Really? Vaz can still be a decent backup at 1m cap hit, and a good leader. Or we can find one floating out in free agent purgatory…BU catcher is not a really big deal. I’m trying to think like the Sox brass now. Cutting whatever fat I can.

I'm not against upgrading Wong, but I was done with Vaz before we traded him.

The 6 year OPS is .626.  (73 OPS+)

.579 3 years (61 OPS+)

Wong is .676 (87) in 6 years and .679 in 3 yrs (91.)

Vaz is 36 and Wong 30. VTek is only 54.

[southpaw777]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 27 guys (qualified PA) hit above 280. Of them, Arozarena and Arraez are available. Prior to last season, Aro was a 250 career hitter. 

It’s so sad that there aren’t more 300 hitters. You’d think using more analytics would make guys better, not worse.
I think he could have better numbers in Fenway. 30hr and maybe keep that BA around 280. Obp is good, so he’s on base a bunch. And Henry will like the fact that he won’t cost him 30m per. 
The true 30-40hr power bats was last year, we’re in  the 25-30 hr guys price range.

[southpaw777]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not against upgrading Wong, but I was done with Vaz before we traded him.

The 6 year OPS is .626.  (73 OPS+)

.579 3 years (61 OPS+)

Wong is .676 (87) in 6 years and .679 in 3 yrs (91.)

Vaz is 36 and Wong 30. VTek is only 54.

 

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not against upgrading Wong, but I was done with Vaz before we traded him.

The 6 year OPS is .626.  (73 OPS+)

.579 3 years (61 OPS+)

Wong is .676 (87) in 6 years and .679 in 3 yrs (91.)

Vaz is 36 and Wong 30. VTek is only 54.

Well you should remember what a fan I was of his, so It was kind of a nostalgic move that would cost less. I’ve also suggested that there would be a number of guys floating around out there that would fill in just fine besides Vaz. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, southpaw777 said:

Houck Crawford and Oviedo will cost about 9m. That’s too much for depth when we could find a couple arms for much less that probably haven’t been injured the last two seasons…

Min wage is like $2.4M for 3 guys, so we're talking about $2.2M more per pitcher. All these three have histories of doing well. Houck was our ace two years ago and is not old.

What three pitchers are you adding that are cheaper and better than arb costs?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, southpaw777 said:

I don’t think we need to make a big trade. Just a couple good FA signings. A RH starter and a RH power bat. Kind of like last year. 
 

We actually need a power LHB more than RH'd.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

 

Well you should remember what a fan I was of his, so It was kind of a nostalgic move that would cost less. I’ve also suggested that there would be a number of guys floating around out there that would fill in just fine besides Vaz. 

Cost less than Wong's $2.75M est arb? 

[southpaw777]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Min wage is like $2.4M for 3 guys, so we're talking about $2.2M more per pitcher. All these three have histories of doing well. Houck was our ace two years ago and is not old.

What three pitchers are you adding that are cheaper and better than arb costs?

There are always depth guys floating around out there. Minor league FA guys, etc…None of these three have been reliable in two seasons. We have a full rotation and a few in house already. If they keep Bello, he’d be who I keep (if he’s not moved) along with the other 3-4 in house guys we already have. 

[southpaw777]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We actually need a power LHB more than RH'd.

Power bat? Not in Fenway we don’t. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, southpaw777 said:

There are always depth guys floating around out there. Minor league FA guys, etc…None of these three have been reliable in two seasons. We have a full rotation and a few in house already. If they keep Bello, he’d be who I keep (if he’s not moved) along with the other 3-4 in house guys we already have. 

These aren't 3 Sandovals, who we knew was starting the season on the 60 Day IL (in 2025.) They all are expected to be ready for the first day on ST'ing.

Anybody we pick up in a minor league deal will have a worse history or an equal injury history or both.

We paid big money for Richards, Kluber, Paxton, Buehler, and Sandoval, and you expect us to do better with minor league signings?

I wish you were right.