A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Thats was my attempt at humor, and the joke was he plays 162 games

Rifle arm was mine.

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Rifle arm was mine.

Well look at that, we both got jokes.

 

Before 2026 one could of said Story's arm was just as good as Alex Bregmans, but his arm speed slowed way the f*** down in 2026. Maybe he's better in 2027, but he should probably never touch the left side of an infield ever again. 

[mvp 78]

Story's max throw from SS was 76th out of 79 at SS (82.9 mph) last season. For overall mph he was 74th out of 79 (79.7 mph). 

IKF was 79th for both. 

[southpaw777]

So after some thought, I’ve come up with my personal offseason plan. Maybe not as in depth as some but still serves the purpose.

non tender

Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Duran, Monasterio, White , Wong, Gonzalez, Casas, Kelly and Jones. All gone. Maybe a couple sign and trades but ultimately all should have jobs elsewhere. we have a decent amount of pitching depth right now and can probably sign some cheaper and more reliable options besides these guys. I could be persuaded to take one or two off that list though.

Players that should be traded.

Story, Yoshida, and Bello. 
the first two are clogging up the roster. Toss in a prospect and eat some cash. They need to go. and Bello is a change of scenery guy. I believe there’s a deal out there for him. I’d rather spend the 9.5M elsewhere. He’s a better fit in someone else’s rotation. Not ours.

I resign Gray for 25M. If it takes a 2 year deal I’m ok with that. I think he’s got two more good years in him anyway. He’s a gamer. Good veteran to have. Leader. That would solidify our rotation for the next couple years until another prospect is possibly ready in 2029. It’s also not much to spend on what would look like a top rotation in baseball if healthy. Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett is pretty formidable.

I like Arozarena for a bat to sign. He could hit 30 in Fenway. There’s also a power Japanese bat, Sato, but I don’t think the Sox will enter the bidding for him. I’d go get Vaz to be the BU catcher in Boston behind Rutschman. Veteran presence and clubhouse leader (much needed) cheap price tag, and I miss him. 

Invite a bunch of players into spring training and see who sticks. A RH starter and a RH power bat are the two real NEEDS for this team. The rest is deleting a bunch of wasted roster spots and cash off the payroll to spend that money and use those spots for better options.

1b Contreras

2b Mead/Seigler

SS Arias

3b Durbin

LF Anthony/Arozarena

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

C Rutschman/ Vaz

I’ll take that starting lineup and rotation. Obviously there will be other players and depth to fill the holes, but this is my plan A.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Thats was my attempt at humor, and the joke was he plays 162 games

As a FT DH is over/under on games played might be 62.

[moonslav59]

On 10/27/2026 at 11:07 AM, Old Red said:

I don’t really see the Red Sox going into next season withThe Great Gasper as the backup plan at catcher...

Prediction or suggestion?

[moonslav59]

Vaz?

Why not bring VTek back as a catcher?

[moonslav59]

Depth

With our minor league SP'er depth Paez, Wehunt Holobetz & Ziehl, I'm thinking we need to keep Houck, Crawford and Oviedo in hopes that 1-2 do well enough to fill the rotation depth needs, or maybe pitch from the pen and eat some meaningful innings.

The pen depth looks very shaky.

I'm not a big fan or Wong, but he has an option left, so maybe we add a catcher and keep him in AAA as the #3 Catcher. (We don't usually burn 3 slots on the 40, and if you count Gapser, that would be 4.)

Mead, Romy, Gasper and Sogard can all play 1B. Casas remains a long shot, but I'd keep him on the 40 into ST'ing.

Assuming Mead is the starting 2Bman, we have very nice depth: Romy, Sogard, Seigler & Monasterio. Story could play 2B, if Arias wins the SS job.

SS does not have much depth beyond Story or Arias. Monasterio is not a long term solution. Cheng is good on D. Sogard is not.

3B depth is kinda sketchy: Monasterio, Story, Cheng, Mead...

The OF had White, Jones and Duran, if he's still here. KC in AAA.

DH has too many to list.

[moonslav59]

The winter fun begins soon, or at least until they lock the doors.

We have clear needs, but IMO, not as many as we've needed in recent years- maybe since 2018 or 2019 (pre-injuries.)

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The winter fun begins soon, or at least until they lock the doors.

We have clear needs, but IMO, not as many as we've needed in recent years- maybe since 2018 or 2019 (pre-injuries.)

I think they need to clear 4 spots right away from what Cotillo said.

Burgos DFA

Cheng DFA

Moran trade

Eaton trade

McAdam floated the idea of DFA'ing Campbell so that you take him off the 40 man, since nobody wants that contract. I think that's more likely to happen next offseason when his options expire. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I think they need to clear 4 spots right away from what Cotillo said.

Burgos DFA

Cheng DFA

Moran trade

Eaton trade

McAdam floated the idea of DFA'ing Campbell so that you take him off the 40 man, since nobody wants that contract. I think that's more likely to happen next offseason when his options expire. 

Nobody wants KC's full contract- same with Yoshida and Story. Maybe we add some cash and or a mid level prospect to add some wiggle room to the winter spending budget by trading all three. I'd also trade Duran, but if that involves adding money, then just non tender him.

I have no problem trading or DFA'ing the 4 you listed, and I might add trading Olds, Kelly and one from White and Jones. (We could keep both, if we trade Duran.)

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody wants KC's full contract- same with Yoshida and Story. Maybe we add some cash and or a mid level prospect to add some wiggle room to the winter spending budget by trading all three. I'd also trade Duran, but if that involves adding money, then just non tender him.

I have no problem trading or DFA'ing the 4 you listed, and I might add trading Olds, Kelly and one from White and Jones. (We could keep both, if we trade Duran.)

They'll have to make additional moves for Rule 5 protection (if necessary) and any offseason adds. 

I agree about Kelly and Jones. They may try to sneak White onto the roster somehow. 

I'm sure Brez will move some people that we don't expect. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Offseason officially starts today. Internet already loaded with crazy trade proposals for the Red Sox to trade their best prospects and proven youngsters for one guy to play shortstop...

... as if Bobby Whit or Elly or Abrams are even available -- or even great enough to bring a title to Boston without Tolle at the top of the rotation and Abreu manning RF.

Shortstop is not an area of need -- not when you already owe one guy $25 million to play there, and you have the AL's highest-ranked two-way prospect waiting to take over.

Boston is not one bat away from a deep October run. We just saw the best team in the American League -- a club with four or five bats better than any Red Sox not named Willson -- hit .182 in the World Series.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'll have to make additional moves for Rule 5 protection (if necessary) and any offseason adds. 

I agree about Kelly and Jones. They may try to sneak White onto the roster somehow. 

I'm sure Brez will move some people that we don't expect. 

Brez seems to do well trading bubble-type players, but so far the returns have not been all that great. Mostly, it just puts off a roster squeeze move for a year or two.

The big ones are Story (I doubt we trade him, unless we add a SS to the roster) Yoshida, Duran and KC.

Story's owed $30M/1 counting the buyout.

Yoshida is owed $18M/1

Duran may make $11M via arb.

KC is not owed much now, but his AAV is $7.5M.

Here is an incomplete list of the types of moves I mentioned:

Urias for I Campbell

Santos & Robertson for O'Neill

Schreiber for Sandlin

EVladez for Vogatsky

Booser for Fajardo

Gasper for Moran

The 11/18/25 flurry:

Hoppe for Heyman

Bernardino for Ward

Murphy for Ronny Hernandez

Guerrero for T Gray

Later on.... Grissom for I Jackson

Perales for Bennett

T Gray for Nate Baez

Hicks, Sandlin and 2 PTBNL for Ziehl & PTBNL (more of a salary dump but also roster slot opener.)

______________________

Not really fringe player trades:

Ammons for Slaten

Reimer for Watson

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Offseason officially starts today. Internet already loaded with crazy trade proposals for the Red Sox to trade their best prospects and proven youngsters for one guy to play shortstop...

... as if Bobby Whit or Elly or Abrams are even available -- or even great enough to bring a title to Boston without Tolle at the top of the rotation and Abreu manning RF.

Shortstop is not an area of need -- not when you already owe one guy $25 million to play there, and you have the AL's highest-ranked two-way prospect waiting to take over.

Boston is not one bat away from a deep October run. We just saw the best team in the American League -- a club with four or five bats better than any Red Sox not named Willson -- hit .182 in the World Series.

If we traded for a bigtime SS, we'd like trade Story and $22M for nada.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

If we traded for a bigtime SS, we'd like trade Story and $22M for nada.

And then flip Nada for Cero, and combine him with Futura Estrella for Dustin May.

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'll have to make additional moves for Rule 5 protection (if necessary) and any offseason adds. 

There are not many Rule 5 guys that are clear adds:

Wehunt is a 99-100% add.

Jo Garcia is 85-90%, IMO. I think he'd be taken if left unprotected.

Ro. Hernandez- This is a guy I like, but he's not likely going to be protected.

Romero- Most would have him above Hernendez. Maybe a 40-50% guy.

Nate Baez- 40-50% only because Wong is our back-up catcher.

Brannon- 33% might be too high.

Rodgers- 20%

Ward- 15%

Hickey- 5%

N Taylor, Bleis & Song- 0-1%

 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And then flip Nada for Cero, and combine him with Futura Estrella for Dustin May.

LMAO!

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

There are not many Rule 5 guys that are clear adds:

Wehunt is a 99-100% add.

Jo Garcia is 85-90%, IMO. I think he'd be taken if left unprotected.

Ro. Hernandez- This is a guy I like, but he's not likely going to be protected.

Romero- Most would have him above Hernendez. Maybe a 40-50% guy.

Nate Baez- 40-50% only because Wong is our back-up catcher.

Brannon- 33% might be too high.

Rodgers- 20%

Ward- 15%

Hickey- 5%

N Taylor, Bleis & Song- 0-1%

 

I agree that there aren't many adds to worry about: Wehunt, Garcia, Brannon, Mullins are in consideration. I think one of the 1B/C gets traded. I think Wehunt is added. They probably pass on adding Mullins. 

No chance do they add Romero. I don't see them adding Baez either as his defensive profile isn't THAT advanced. 

[JoeBrady]

On 10/28/2026 at 8:36 AM, Hugh2 said:

BTV Accepts Bennett/Abreu/Durbin for Elly. 

That opens 3 holes just to upgrade from Arias to Elly.  I like Elly, but the point of trading for a 3-year player is to win in the next three years.  Abreu + Durbin = 10.3 bWAR last year.  Bennett is our #4.  IMO, we'd be worse off, even in the first year.

[NHNative]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That opens 3 holes just to upgrade from Arias to Elly.  I like Elly, but the point of trading for a 3-year player is to win in the next three years.  Abreu + Durbin = 10.3 bWAR last year.  Bennett is our #4.  IMO, we'd be worse off, even in the first year.

I am not good with dumping Durbin and Abreu...no way.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree that there aren't many adds to worry about: Wehunt, Garcia, Brannon, Mullins are in consideration. I think one of the 1B/C gets traded. I think Wehunt is added. They probably pass on adding Mullins. 

No chance do they add Romero. I don't see them adding Baez either as his defensive profile isn't THAT advanced. 

I forgot Mullins.

Romero came on in SEPT, but I agree, it's not enough.

Those bottom names were more like dishonorable mentions.

[JoeBrady]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Then I move on to Abrams.

I think Arias, Duran (w $) Primera & Valera comes close. They can have Holobetz and Monasterio, too. If they want Casas...

Abrams is not a SS.  His OAA and FRV are both off-the charts bad.

[moonslav59]

Just now, NHNative said:

I am not good with dumping Durbin and Abreu...no way.

If we signed Sato (3B) or Suzuki (RF) would that make it okay?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

Abrams is not a SS.  His OAA and FRV are both off-the charts bad.

His DRS is better than Story

[JoeBrady]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, it's only two years, but it's arb costs.

-3 DRS in 2026 was not horrific. (-6 in '25 was worse. +5 in '23+'24 was not bad.) -4 in 5 years is better than Story, recently. (Not saying much.) -4 DRS is 2026 in like 550 innings and -7 last year.

Abrams OAA w WSH (not BAL) is really bad.

I'm huge on SS defense, but we need an elite bat and SS is our worst offensive slot.

The Nats are already transitioning Abrams to 2B.  And Mead hit better than Abrams last year.  And there could be clubhouse issues.  I want no part of Abrams, outside of my rotisserie team.

[NHNative]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we signed Sato (3B) or Suzuki (RF) would that make it okay?

No---find another way to get a power bat. Those guys deserve some loyalty IMO.

[JoeBrady]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'll admit I over simplify things, but our SS position is the pitts on offense

If SS is your main offensive concern, then you probably don't have an offensive concern.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I forgot Mullins.

Really weird that Mullins wasn't in AAA all season. I don't get what they are doing with him. 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His DRS is better than Story

Which is why he'd be fine at 2b.