A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While true, we'd have still made the playoffs under the previous format.

Which format? Not if it was 2004. 

[drewski6]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they had 5 #2 hitters, maybe it'd be one thing, but this team has a lot of guys that just aren't good enough to begin with. I know Adley has been a top of the order hitter, but the production just isn't there. He should be hitting 6th. 

10,000%

[drewski6]

I'd go even higher to 20,000%

[moonslav59]

Here are the prospects Brez traded away and their ranking at the time or last ranking before graduating:

2 Eyanson+ 3 Witherspoon +6 Azocar for Rutschman

2 Mayer (stock had fallen significantly) for Miller & Gutierrez- currently ranked #14.

3 Early for Mead

4 Perales for #4 Jake Bennett (just graduated & 6 years of control)

4 Teel, 5 Montgomery, 8 Meidroth & 18 Wikelman for Crochet

6 Jh Garcia & 20 Travieso for Oviedo, 19 Samaniego & 54 A Guzman

8 Fitts (graduated) + 8 B Clarke for Sonny Gray + a chunk of cash

12 Dobbins (graduated) + 10 Fajardo + Aita for Contreras + Cash

12 Sandlin + Hicks for #21 Ziehl

15 Drohan + Harrison (graduated) + DHam for Durbin, Monasterio & Seigler

19 Uberstine for Eli White

25 Elmer Rodriguez for Narvaez (had recently graduated with Yanks)

Priester had graduated before coming to Boston, but I'll include him as we got prospects for him. We traded him for #9 Holobetz + #60 YRod.

Hoppe for #28 Luke Heyman 

Grissom for #29 I Jackson

Devers for Harrison, Hicks, Tibbs & J Bello

This is a ton of trades and a ton of prospects going out the door. The vast majority of the prospects have yet to even crack the majors, but the expectation is some will do well to very well. Many of the "throw-in" types have done well, like Meidroth & Drohan. I mentioned the graduated prospects to highlight the younger players traded and acquired beyond just prospects.

It's interesting to note how much we hear about prospects & players we traded away doing well, but how about the players and prospects we got back?

The vets we got are not easily forgotten: Crochet, Gray, Contreras, Mead, Rutschman, Durbin & Miller. (Seigler, Monasterio & Oviedo,) but we also got some prospects back:

4. Bennett (wanna trade him back for Perales?)

9. Holobetz

14. Carlos Gutierrez

19. Samaniego

21. Ziehl

28. Heyman

29. Jackson

54. A Guzman

60. YRod

In no way am I trying to say this prospect list matches what we gave up, but we did add some young players and prospects.

Crochet was 25 when we got him, then we extended him. His recent injury casts a shadow on that deal and extension, but trading a bunch of prospects for a 25 year old pitcher who will be controlled for 7 years is not a deal I'm gonna slam.

The Rutschman deal looks scary as hell, even if we extend  him at a reasonable amount. I like the Mead, Contreras, Gray and Miller deals. The Durbin deal looks sketchy, if Drohan & Harrison keep doing well, but we felt the same way about the Priester deal, and now no complaints.

I'm happy with the overall results of Brez trades. There are other areas to criticize him on that seem more justified, but not the trades.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Which format? Not if it was 2004. 

The previous format means the one right before this one. I did not say formatS.

2012-2021 had 2 wild card teams play a single game elimination. In both 2025 and 2026, we were the #2 WC team. Simple observation.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

We don't know, but if the deal was a minor league package it's a very very short list of who it could have been, and Arias seems like the ideal candidate. 

McAdam seemed to think so as well.  The Sox eould no longer need a SS.  Cincy would. And Boston didn’t really have anything else nearly as appealing…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You may not agree with my position, but I have explained it several times.

1. IMO, we need to greatly upgrade one position on offense, this winter. Maybe since you disagree, you don't follow my next point.

2. The SS position will be projected as our worst OPS slot on the team. That should be beyond debate.

3. It is common practice to try and upgrade your worst slot.

Now, I get the fact that SS will probably not be the worst fWAR slot on the team (by ranking) due to plus defense from Arias, and maybe LF/DH or 3B might be better slots to look at, but in terms of offense, revisiting talks with teams with much better offensive SSs makes sense.

Id certainly take De La Cruz for Arias plus, but I have my doubts as to SS projecting to be their worst position. 2b (if not Mead), DH (if Anthony is in LF and Mead is at 2b) and LF (if Duran is there) all could and should be worse…

[moonslav59]

Now, if you go by BTV and look at the values of prospects we traded away, it looks very scary: (second number is total value w/o salary.)

41 Meidroth (94)

33 Br Montgomery (47)

31 Eyanson (N/A)

27 Azocar (N/A)

23 Early (42)

20 Mayer (20)

19 Priester (30)

18 Harrison (30)

16 Drohan (52)

14 B Clarke (N/A)

10 Dobbins (21)

9 Teel (9)

6 Sandlin (15)

6 Witherspoon (N/A) 6 Fajardo (N/A)

3 Jh Garcia (3)

2 DHam (6) B Jordan (5)

1 Travieso (N/A)

0 Fitts (0) Aita (N/A)

-6 Hicks (2)

-25 Devers (171)

___________________

Sox Values

53 Crochet (210)

24 Bennett (73)

13 Rutschman (22)

11 Mead (27)

5 Gutierrez (N/A)

4 Contreras (37)

4 Miller (11)

1 Seigler (3)

3 Holobetz, 2 Samaniego, 1 Jackson, 1 Heyman, 1 Ziehl, 1 YRod, 0 Ro Hernandez

-1 Jones (1)

-2 Monasterio (2)

 

 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

McAdam seemed to think so as well.  The Sox eould no longer need a SS.  Cincy would. And Boston didn’t really have anything else nearly as appealing…

McAdam said directly on his podcast a few times that Arias wasn't included in the talks with CIN. He also didn't speculate that CIN wanted him. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You may not agree with my position, but I have explained it several times.

1. IMO, we need to greatly upgrade one position on offense, this winter. Maybe since you disagree, you don't follow my next point.

2. The SS position will be projected as our worst OPS slot on the team. That should be beyond debate.

3. It is common practice to try and upgrade your worst slot.

Now, I get the fact that SS will probably not be the worst fWAR slot on the team (by ranking) due to plus defense from Arias, and maybe LF/DH or 3B might be better slots to look at, but in terms of offense, revisiting talks with teams with much better offensive SSs makes sense.

Maybe one can play 2b or 3b, dun dun dunnnn

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Id certainly take De La Cruz for Arias plus, but I have my doubts as to SS projecting to be their worst position. 2b (if not Mead), DH (if Anthony is in LF and Mead is at 2b) and LF (if Duran is there) all could and should be worse…

Go for the best player you can and sort out the positions later.  

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Id certainly take De La Cruz for Arias plus, but I have my doubts as to SS projecting to be their worst position. 2b (if not Mead), DH (if Anthony is in LF and Mead is at 2b) and LF (if Duran is there) all could and should be worse…

Worst on "offense:" not worst overall.

A lot depends on who plays SS and 2B, but we could say:

SS: Arias/Story (Monasterio/Cheng)

2B: Mead/Story (Sogard/Seigler/Romy)

I have to give the edge to 2B, but I realize I am projecting a lot from Mead's half season in 2026. My projections on Story are worse. My projections for Arias in year one on offense is not as high as Mead or even Sogard/Seigler/Romy.

LF/DH is the only one close to SS. Whichever one Anthony does not play has major questions, but not so much on offense.

LF: Duran is a hug question, and I project he's gone, so I have Anthony in LF, unless we sign Suzuki or add an OF bat. Agreed: White/Jones/Duran/KC could be worse on offense than Arias/Story at SS.

DH: With Anthony if LF, I like numerous DH platoons on offense over Arias/Story:

Gasper- Jones

Sogard- Romy

These platoons look fine, to me, but only if we add a big bat at SS.

Also, I could even see Brannon doing better than Arias on offense. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Maybe one can play 2b or 3b, dun dun dunnnn

Mead can play 3B, of course not close to as well as Durbin, but if we add a big bat at 2B (B Lowe? Chisholm?) maybe we can stomach the loss on 3B defense. Dubin could be traded as part of the deal to get a SS or 2Bman, or he could make an excellent utility infielder with Sogard traded or the second utility guy. (Trade Seigler and or Monasterio?)

I think it's less complicated to just trade Arias plus others for a clearly better bat at SS. I must admit, I'm not 100% sold on all of the options, except de la Cruz.

2025-2026 wRC+ leaders at SS:

129 Pena (1 yr of control) 122 in '26

129 Seager (expensive 5 yrs and just 834 PAs/2 yrs) 111 in '26

125 Perdomo (doubt he will be traded)

124 de la Cruz (140 in 2026!)

124 Whitt (untradable)

124 Bichette (no thanks) 87 in '26

121 Abrams (might be my second choice) 136 in '26!

120 JP Crawford (133 in '26- sleeper? Nope!)

118 Lindor (expensive) 108 in '26

118 Neto (high K rate) 118 '25 and '26

109 Gunner Henderson (101 in '26)

104 Willy Adames (a salary dump w 5 yrs left) 98 in '26

103 Otto Lopez (113 in '26)

(98 Monasterio, 94 Story)

Ezequiel Duran was at 112 in 2026 w TEX

If we signed Sato, we could get by with Arias/Story at SS. We could move Durbin to 2B and Mead to DH or trade Durbin.

My wish list at SS:

1. de la Cruz (26 y/o) 30 HRs & 65 XBH

2. CJ Abrams (26 y/o) 33 HRs & 67 XBHs

3. Neto (25) 27 HRs & 63 XBHs (215 Ks!)

4. Otto Lopez (28) only 11 HRs & 52 XBHs but led league in hits. A .349 OBP and 34 SBs makes for a nice leadoff hitter.

5. Pena's one year of control would keep me from giving up Arias or Anthony for him. If we could get Yordan with him, or get an extension as part of the deal, maybe...

Big risk: Seager is 32 and injury prone. 20 HRs & 36 XBHs in  436 PAs.

Big risk: Lindor turns 33, soon. I have to pass, even if they take Story, Yoshida and KC for him.

Big risk: Willy Adames is 31 and seemingly in decline. BTV has him way under water. I'm not sure if the Giants would trade 5 years of high cost for Story, Yoshida & KC, but the Sox would save a lot on the 2027 tax line. They'd have to hope he can rebound. He had 21 HRs and 46 XBHs in 2026, but 30 & 54 in 2025 and 32 & 55 in '24.

Anyone else?

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If not traded, he'll start at some point in '27 for sure. Just need to wait for that Story IL stint. 

I think it's more probable than not that they start Arias in Woo and unless he struggles or is injured he's up super quick.  But I wouldn't be 100% surprised if he's given an opportunity to start out of spring training either. 

[mvp 78]

Adley Rutschman - C

Willson Conteras - 1b

Curtis Mead - 2b

Trevor Story - SS

Isaac Paredes - 3b

Heriberto Hernandez - LF

Ceddanne Rafaela - CF

Roman Anthony - RF

Grichuk/Pederson - DH

Carson Kelly - C, Sogard - UTIL, Dubon - UTIL

 

Durbin, Duran, Abreu - Traded

Masa - Released

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it's more probable than not that they start Arias in Woo and unless he struggles or is injured he's up super quick.  But I wouldn't be 100% surprised if he's given an opportunity to start out of spring training either. 

It could be really wonky with the lockout, so who knows? I think he's going to be given every opportunity if he's around. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it's more probable than not that they start Arias in Woo and unless he struggles or is injured he's up super quick.  But I wouldn't be 100% surprised if he's given an opportunity to start out of spring training either. 

Since he's not Rule 5, it makes sense to keep him off the 40, unless Story is hurt or looking awful in ST'ing. We could also gain a year of control by leaving him off the 40 for a couple months.

I'm predicting Story starts at SS and Mead at 2B. We aren't trading Story or Yoshida.

I do think we trade Duran as $10-11M takes up too much room on a tight budget. He's too unpredictable to be worth the risk, IMO.

I'm hoping we trade for a big bat SS, but I put the odds somewhere around 10-20%.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Adley Rutschman - C

Willson Conteras - 1b

Curtis Mead - 2b

Trevor Story - SS

Isaac Paredes - 3b

Heriberto Hernandez - LF

Ceddanne Rafaela - CF

Roman Anthony - RF

Grichuk/Pederson - DH

Carson Kelly - C, Sogard - UTIL, Dubon - UTIL

 

Durbin, Duran, Abreu - Traded

Masa - Released

I thought my suggestions were shocking!

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I think it's more probable than not that they start Arias in Woo and unless he struggles or is injured he's up super quick.  But I wouldn't be 100% surprised if he's given an opportunity to start out of spring training either. 

I think a lockout is coming so he'll be starting there 100%. Then up when we finally (hopefully) get the season going. 

[JoeBrady]

On 10/10/2026 at 6:00 AM, Old Red said:

Number 1 NOBODY is asking you to care. You guys crack me up. All I did was mention that all Atlanta had to pay in 2024 in actual cash value was $500,000 for Chris sale to win a CY Young for them, and for some reason ORDS you guys took it, and ran off with it from there. Bottom line in all of this is that Brez got his pockets picked, and fleeced by Atlanta, and Brez was so grateful he chipped in $17M. Now if this had been the other way around, and Boston had picked up a CY Young winner from someone who chipped in $17M for a SUSPECT you all would have been praising Brez to high heaven, but unfortunately that didn’t happen that way.Oops🙈..

They picked up the #2 CY and paid him only $3.8M, if you are someone that doesn't think of how much something really costs.  Heck, I only paid $37k for my house, if you want to ignore all the other payments.

[moonslav59]

ZIPS 2027 Projections:

4.8 Crochet

2.8 Suarez

2.1 Bello (2.1 Gray)

1.9 Tolle

1.5 Holobetz

1.4 Oviedo

________________

4.1 Rutschman

4.0 Anthony

3.3 Rafaela

3.3 Duran (LOL)

2.5 Abreu

2.4 Durbin & Jones

1.6 Story & 1.5 Arias

1.4 Ward & KC (LOL)

1.2 Gasper & White

1.1 Contreras & Mead

 

[JoeBrady]

On 10/10/2026 at 1:06 PM, moonslav59 said:

You don't want someone better than Durbin?

You're looking to fix things that aren't broken.  If you want to get someone better than a 4.4 bWAR player with 5 years of control, you'll have to give up Arias, and maybe more.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You're looking to fix things that aren't broken.  If you want to get someone better than a 4.4 bWAR player with 5 years of control, you'll have to give up Arias, and maybe more.

I'm not for upgrading Durbin. I value defense and was encouraged by his second half offense.

I merely mentioned 3B is maybe 3rd on the list of positions where offense could be upgraded significantly. Yes, the cost would be too prohibitive at 3B, but SS and DH/LF maybe not.

Another reason I mentioned 3B was that Sato could be the big bat we need and it would not involve trading Arias or Durbin. We could play Durbin at 3B and Sato at DH or LF, and I'd be fine, but he does play 3B and is likely a major upgrade on offense, no matter where he plays.

If we get Sato, we can afford to keep excellent defense and maybe subpar offense at SS and 3B. (Also, I don't view Durbin as subpar on offense at 3B. He had a 100 wRC+, which was #15 out of all 3Bmen with 300+ PAs. He was 17th in OPS.)

[moonslav59]

Durbin had a .798 OPS since May 29th, but slumped near the end. He hit ..658 in his last 43 games (cherry-picked at worst I could find,) but he was playing with an injured finger that required surgery after the season.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/10/2026 at 4:56 PM, moonslav59 said:

That alone could be all the boost we need, but chances are someone gets hurt or has a sharp decline.

The advances and declines probably even out.  And given that we lost 9-10 important guys to the IL, some for a long time, and some very key, we should have more returns than outgoing.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The advances and declines probably even out.  And given that we lost 9-10 important guys to the IL, some for a long time, and some very key, we should have more returns than outgoing.

We had way more declines than improvements in 2026 from returning vets, and to me, it gets harder to project improvements after so many players declined.

I don't expect Contreras to improve. Story was so bad, it's hard to project further decline, but he may get hurt again, so it won't matter. Mayer and Narvaez are gone.

Anthony and Abreu should not continue declining, but how long can Rafaela keep going up and up?

Anthony, Mead and Rutschman offer the best chances of getting big boosts from 2025, and I do think they should offset any declines from others, but one injury can swing that the other way.

I do agree that while in the past counting on players returning from injuries was not a success, but this year, many of the players out were playing to end the season, so next year looks better.

Everybody except maybe Casas, Gasper and Slaten look promising for a 2027 return, and those three are not major pieces going into 2027.

When you figure returning IL players and add full seasons from Mead, Rutschman and Miller, it's hard to stifle optimism.

We had a pretty decent team when you total all these guys together:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Early (not returning)

RP: Guerrero, Slaten, Kelly, Rivera

C: Rutschman

1B: Gasper/Casas

2B: Mead/Romy

SS: Story (Arias AAA)

3B: Mayer/IKF (not returning)

LF: Anthony

CF: White

DH: Yoshida

That's a lot of players returning or promising more games tha 2025!

[JoeBrady]

On 10/11/2026 at 4:52 PM, moonslav59 said:

Another big question is how big is the need to replace Gray or get him to return.

One could argue Crochet's return is enough.

One could argue Houck, Oviedo & Crawford's returns could offer enough slack, in case Crochet's return is not as glorious as we hope it is, of if someone else takes a big step back or gets hurt.

I'd love to see us bring Gray back or add another quality SP'ers, but to me the big bat add is priority number one.

(The pen also has needs.)

I want him back.  I have him ahead of Skubal based on dollars and length of contract.  That said, if LAD decides that the 7 SPs they have under contract is enough, then I want to be competitive with the NYY and NYM.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 8:00 AM, mvp 78 said:

He won't be the 2b because he's an awful 2b and they value defense. 

Mead or Sato?  I assume Mead starts at 2B and Sato replaces Yoshida at DH.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 5:05 AM, UtahSox said:

I saw a trade on BTV that has really sat with me for last day:

Big pieces: Arias and Abreu for Elly De La Cruz. You could then sign a Taylor Ward to play left and move Roman back to right. 

Or Arias and Anthony for Elly De La Cruz. Ward in LF  

IMO, a significant overpay.  Abreu and Elly have very similar bWARs over the one, two-, and three-year periods.  I'd go Abreu+ or Arias++, but not both.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 9:00 AM, NHNative said:

Is there rot in the organization?

https://talksox.com/news-rumors/boston-red-sox/a-clubhouse-of-folly-and-algorithms-what-led-to-red-soxs-early-playoff-exit-r3651/

 

Same conversation that fans of 27 other teams will be having.