A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know you don't trust Mead. I suppose he could be the next Grissom, but I'm thinking he's be one of our top 3-4 batters next season and maybe 1 or 2.

I've just heard that his glove is really bad and that he should be a DH. I haven't seen enough of him in the field TBH.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get it. I'm always for more pitching, especially high quality pitching.

I'm also for pitchers who pitch. I wasn't sure Sale could ever reach high quality again, either. I didn't see paying $27M for a big question mark as being a sure keeper.

We needed a 2B real bad. My point has been there was some logic to the trade- not that it was riskless or even a good trade at the time. Initially, I did not like the deal, so really, I get your points and don't disagree.

There was a chance Sale never pitcher 100 IP in a season again and or never went under a 4.00 ERA again.

There was a chance Grissom would solve the 2B issue- kinda like a chance Jeter Down would be our SS, except Grissom had some MLB production under his belt already.

The deal ended up being the worst one in half a century. Maybe Bagwell beats it out.

 

I think the Betts trade was one of the worst of the last century, but it wasn't because of  the trade return we got, it was because of the very decision to trade him.

[mvp 78]

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

48 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the Betts trade was one of the worst of the last century, but it wasn't because of  the trade return we got, it was because of the very decision to trade him.

The decision not to pay Mookie his market value is what caused the worst trade in Red Sox history. Obviously Boston has never been the same since.

I predicted then that they'd regret it, and soon pay market value to another guy who was not as good. 

That new regret's name turned out to be Devers. 

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The decision not to pay Mookie his market value is what caused the worst trade in Red Sox history. Obviously Boston has never been the same since.

I predicted then that they'd regret it, and soon pay market value to another guy who was not as good. 

That new regret's name turned out to be Devers. 

Who's the next guy now? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I know he’s hit 17 dingers last year, but he bounced around from team to team, and position to position. He’ll get a chance next year if not traded again. Time will tell.

He's been in the bigs for parts of 4 seasons on 4 teams. In this sense, he's no Grissom- more should be known about him. One big issue is he never showed much offense, until this year, so doubts about it being for real or not is a legit question to ask.

Des[ite missing about half of 2026, he still has his most career PAs (329,) That's pretty legit, but not long enough to be sure about anything. 17 HRs and 35 XBHs in about a half season has gotten me excited- perhaps overly so. (I'm not afraid to say I'm a homer with optimistic tendencies.)

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That new regret's name turned out to be Devers. 

Actually it was Bogey, but since he didn't put up great numbers, the talk died down.

(There was also the Sale trade, too.)

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Who's the next guy now? 

It was Early?

(We know it's not Mayer... LOL)

Maybe we trade Anthony?

Nobody is even near the Betts-Devers level, except maybe Tolle.

BTV numbers

71 Tolle

70 Rafaela (Happy now, we extended him early?)

64 Arias

53 Crochet

33 Durbin

27 Gonzales

24 Abreu & Bennett

20 Primera

14 Suarez

13 Valera

11 Mead, Soto & Delzine

10 AR & Anthony

9 Godbout

(Nobody else over 7)

[JimEd]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It was Early?

(We know it's not Mayer... LOL)

Maybe we trade Anthony?

Nobody is even near the Betts-Devers level, except maybe Tolle.

BTV numbers

71 Tolle

70 Rafaela (Happy now, we extended him early?)

64 Arias

53 Crochet

33 Durbin

27 Gonzales

24 Abreu & Bennett

20 Primera

14 Suarez

13 Valera

11 Mead, Soto & Delzine

10 AR & Anthony

9 Godbout

(Nobody else over 7)

i don't see KC's value on that list. i wonder what it would be had they not given him that idiotic extension.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JimEd said:

i don't see KC's value on that list. i wonder what it would be had they not given him that idiotic extension.

Yeah, well MVP called the Rafaela extension dumb, too.

BTW, KC will not be making big money until 2028 or even later.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Who's the next guy now? 

Whoever it is, he won't be as valuable or win as many rings as a first-ballot Hall of Famer like Betts.

Mookie's peak 7-year WAR as a rightfielder is 4th all-time behind only Ruth, Musial and Aaron. 

So unless the Red Sox can find, draft, sign and extend a twice-in-a-lifetime all-timer, they'll always be losers for losing Betts.

[Randy Red Sox]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

My point is there was never a mantra that stated that he'd be 100% healthy and do better than .800 in his first 500-1000 PAs. Sure, there was hype that he'd end up being a star, but nobody I know said he'd be an all star from day one. I doubt anyone said it here, either.

You need to yell??  #1 rated prospects ARE supposed to end up a star especially when they already have a long term mega $$$ extension. Injuries notwithstanding I am sure Anthony himself would say his MLB start has been somewhat of a disappointment.

But stop trying to generate an argument.  I still consider him, Tolle, and Crochet along with Arias to be untouchable.

[Randy Red Sox]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Whoever it is, he won't be as valuable or win as many rings as a first-ballot Hall of Famer like Betts.

Mookie's peak 7-year WAR as a rightfielder is 4th all-time behind only Ruth, Musial and Aaron. 

So unless the Red Sox can find, draft, sign and extend a twice-in-a-lifetime all-timer, they'll always be losers for losing Betts.

Not to mention Bogaerts who is also doing well still. Cabanaboyken from an old site i was on said both would age poorly.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the Betts trade was one of the worst of the last century, but it wasn't because of  the trade return we got, it was because of the very decision to trade him.

it was both actually

[JimEd]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yeah, well MVP called the Rafaela extension dumb, too.

BTW, KC will not be making big money until 2028 or even later.

he's un-tradeable now because of it. and yeah, it was dumb.

[JimEd]

16 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Not to mention Bogaerts who is also doing well still. Cabanaboyken from an old site i was on said both would age poorly.

no doubt the contract the Padres gave Xman was crazy, but since then, they've got better value out of Xman than the Sox have out of Trever Story. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Whoever it is, he won't be as valuable or win as many rings as a first-ballot Hall of Famer like Betts.

Mookie's peak 7-year WAR as a rightfielder is 4th all-time behind only Ruth, Musial and Aaron. 

So unless the Red Sox can find, draft, sign and extend a twice-in-a-lifetime all-timer, they'll always be losers for losing Betts.

Mookie was a generational talent and a good guy.

That was as low a point as losing Fisk, Lynn, Burly and others in the 70's.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, JimEd said:

he's un-tradeable now because of it. and yeah, it was dumb.

You can't be serious. Rafaela's deal is a bargain, and every GM in MLB would gladly take him and his contract.

His 4.1 fWAR is top 30 in MLB. His 8.0 fWAR since 2025 is top 25. (bWAR 10.6)

He's owed: 27:$3.5M, 28:$5.5M, 29:$7.5M, 30:$10.5M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M club option ($4M buyout)

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

You need to yell??  #1 rated prospects ARE supposed to end up a star especially when they already have a long term mega $$$ extension. Injuries notwithstanding I am sure Anthony himself would say his MLB start has been somewhat of a disappointment.

But stop trying to generate an argument.  I still consider him, Tolle, and Crochet along with Arias to be untouchable.

You missed the part about "day one." Nobody projects #1 prospects to be studs in year one, even if healthy.

[JimEd]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You can't be serious. Rafaela's deal is a bargain, and every GM in MLB would gladly take him and his contract.

His 4.1 fWAR is top 30 in MLB. His 8.0 fWAR since 2025 is top 25. (bWAR 10.6)

He's owed: 27:$3.5M, 28:$5.5M, 29:$7.5M, 30:$10.5M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M club option ($4M buyout)

i was talking about KC. Raffy is fine.

[moonslav59]

It looks like Suzuki might be the best fit, but many teams will be bidding on him, and we know how that always works out. If somehow a miracle happens, we'd almost certainly trade or non tender Duran. That would essentially knock off about $8M from the cost, for year 1 and maybe 2.

Suzuki had his best bWAR (5.1) season of his career at age 31. (7.7 for last 2 years and 7.2 fWAR.) He's averaged about 30 HRs per 650 in the last 2 years combined. We could probably use a LHB more, but we can't be too choosy.

B Lowe is a LHB with 30 HR power, but Ks even more than Suzuki and apparently isn't good fit for Fenway.

Arozarena might be the consolation prize, is 31 and a RHB. (25 HRs per 650.)

Is Teruaki Sato (3B/OF) and option? He's just 27 & a LHB. He's hit 79 HRs in the past 2 seasons (1200 PAs) Also, 81 2B+3B.

Maybe we can find another Contreras type via trade, but who?

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, JimEd said:

i was talking about KC. Raffy is fine.

Makes sense.

Let's give KC some more time, but certainly, it looks awful, now.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The decision not to pay Mookie his market value is what caused the worst trade in Red Sox history. Obviously Boston has never been the same since.

I predicted then that they'd regret it, and soon pay market value to another guy who was not as good. 

That new regret's name turned out to be Devers. 

 

If you read any of Mookies comments either recently or years ago about Boston its pretty clear he didnt like it here....the mistake was not getting  more back but wake up people..He didnt want to be here!

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

If you read any of Mookies comments either recently or years ago about Boston its pretty clear he didnt like it here....the mistake was not getting  more back but wake up people..He didnt want to be here!

Shoulda got more, but where were all the offers?

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I've just heard that his glove is really bad and that he should be a DH. I haven't seen enough of him in the field TBH.

When you see 2B/1B, you gotta wonder about 2B defense.

BR has him at -0.4 dWAR in 240 games.

DRS:

2B: +3 (last 2 years in just 135 innings) and -3 in first 190 innings

1B: -3 in 411 innings  (got worse in 2026)

3B: -4 in 864 innings

OAA career:

0 at 2B

4 at 3B

-6 at 1B

That's likely better than Grissom... LOL

 

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think the Betts trade was one of the worst of the last century, but it wasn't because of  the trade return we got, it was because of the very decision to trade him.

True- same with Babe Ruth.

The Fisk fiasco was horrible, but at least we got value for Lynn, Burly and a few others.

To me, the choice was on JH. The near miss trade by DD in 2019 supports the notion. I do wonder what DD might have gotten.

It's shocking the only known offers were the Dodgers and Padres. Both bad.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Not to mention Bogaerts who is also doing well still. Cabanaboyken from an old site i was on said both would age poorly.

Bogaerts has aged poorly.  Or is simply playing poorly. His .814 OPS from 10 years in Boston has dropped down to a .722 in SD after his career low .676 this year  

[notin]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True- same with Babe Ruth.

The Fisk fiasco was horrible, but at least we got value for Lynn, Burly and a few others.

To me, the choice was on JH. The near miss trade by DD in 2019 supports the notion. I do wonder what DD might have gotten.

It's shocking the only known offers were the Dodgers and Padres. Both bad.

Reportedly the 2019 trade involved Will Smith.  The rapper-turned-actor, not the catcher.

As bad as that Dodger offer was, the Padres was one even worse.  Both offers could have been better if not for the Sox forcing the inclusion of the expensive and ultimately useless David Price (plus half of his contract.)

[notin]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Shoulda got more, but where were all the offers?

It turns out when offering one year of a $25mill superstar outfielder, most teams are forced to walk when you also have to take on a significant portion of the 3 remaining years of a broken down $93 pitcher.

When the required throw-in is signed for more years and a higher AAV than the main piece, most teams will walk.  Why overpay when you know that in Year 2, there is a good chance thr only part of that trade you still have is Price?

[moonslav59]

By some stroke of luck, let's say we are able to trade Story, Yoshida and Duran and save about $18 from their expected salaries. That would be a short term gain, but with Yoshida and Story's deals ending after 2027, one could see the opening for a major long term signing. (Bigger than Suarez.)

For arguments sake, let's say we sign Suzuki, but maybe we go after Sato, instead. Wishing for both is nice but fantasy. The question then becomes is it enough? Would there be enough money left to sign Gray, Nick Martinez or Morejon. I guess if we have enough for one of them, maybe there would be enough to sign 2 from this:

Sato or BLowe

Suzuki or Arozaena

No major pitching added

1. L Anthony DH

2. R Suzuki LF

3. L Lowe 2B

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6, R Mead 3B

7. S Rutschman C

8. R Rafaela CF

9. R Arias SS

Bench: Durbin, Sogard, Wong, Gasper