A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

That may well be. It is separate to the point(s) I was making, however. He was our, or at least one of our, most important offensive players going into the season and we lost him for a large part of it. Now he has question marks over him going into next year (around health) and we can't build a project around him. 

I agree that we simply cannot make plans based on 500+ PAs from Anthony. I do think Brez attempted to mitigate that fact during the season and both Mead and AR are back for 2027, too. (Mead for 3 more seasons.)

Those two players are not chumps, and they both cost a pretty penny. Those two in season moves, not even counting the Miller trade were the largest since Schawrber.

The thing is, they (plus Contreras & Durbin) needed to make up for the loss of  not just Anthony but also Story, Devers and Bregman. The big drop off from Duran hurt, too.

Maybe I'm too high on Mead and AR, but I see them as significant additions for the full 2027 season, but we need more.

[JAG]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We've done well with trades, but I fear the trade capital is getting to low to expect any major impact player that way. We'd have to open up a new hole to create a major upgrade somewhere else. It would be like whack-a-mole.

I do think we need to keep the extended future in mind, if not, we end up with more Storys and Yoshidas. Those two are a significant reason we couldn't improve more last winter and again, this winter. Sure, it's easy to just say, "Henry needs to spend more," but how has that argument been going since 2019?

I brought up BLowe because I think he checks a few boxes- some major ones, but he does come with some serious risks, namely his age (32,) a likely lengthy deal and the budget hit.

There are other nice bats out there as FAs, but not many. We haven't been winning many bidding wars for bats. I think the last one was JD- back in the DD era. We do have a few big trading chips, and I get the win now argument. We've just gone 7 years with just 3 playoff teams and one (2021) that advanced beyond round one. The problem is that guys like Primera & Valera and all the recent draftees don't have a very high value vs what I consider their upside potential value. The gap is just too wide for me to think it's worth dealing one away. The two big value prospects happen to be major factors in our near and extended future outlook. 

Story sucks at SS defense and Godbout is not MLB ready or a sure bet. Arias is not a sure bet either, and the spectacle of Mayer and Campbell has put doubts in all our minds on how much faith we can put in Arias. Monasterio & Cheng or inferior defenders like Sogard at SS are not championship level SS options. Depth- fine: wire to wire SSs- no way. We really need Arias or use him to trade for a bonafide, proven SS.

Contreras is 35 and has another season of control plus an option year. The timing works out perfectly for Justin Gonzales to move into the 1B slot. JG is our only other blue or near-blue chip prospect trade value. 1Bmen seem easier to find than SSs, so maybe we could risk trading him, but he alone will not give us a major upgrade. (We do have Casas, Gasper, Sogard, Romy and maybe Brannon as 1B depth, which is better than our SS depth, but again, none seem like wire-to-wire players or "good enough" platoon combos.) One idea might be to trade Gonzales + Mead for a stud middle infielder, or JG + Contreras for an even better 1Bman, or JG + Anthony for a stud LF'er or SS. I'm not sure how this theory plays out in real time, though.

We aren't getting anything by trading Duran, Story and or Yoshida, except a little salary relief. Duran's $8-9M arb estimate is significant, and if we can't trade him, we can just non tender him and save a good amount of our winter sending budget space. Yoshida + Story might net a $7-10M savings, unless we attach some mid-level prospects with them. Maybe we can save $15M. We have some decent depth to hardly notice any or all of the three being gone. White & Jones for Duran, Arias & Co for Story, and about 5-6 players and platoons for Yoshida at DH. I'm not sure how much we can get for $10-15M, but if we add it to the amount JH plans on giving Brez, it should help. We have $21M for Gray, $6M for IKF and $9M for Sandoval coming off the books, too. Only Gray needs replacing, unless we roll the dice on Crochet taking his slot and nearly everyone remaining healthy.

The everyday player core without Story, Duran and Yoshida looks like this:

C: Rutschman & Wong (better than our 2026 catchers)

1B: Contreras & Sogard/Romy/Gasper/Casas (maybe the depth makes up for an expected decline from our 35 y/o 1Bman.)

2B: Mead & Seagler/Romy (huge upgrade)

SS: Arias & Monasterio/Cheng (Big question, but our SS position sucked in 2026)

3B: Durbin & Sogard/Monasterio (same- maybe a small uptick?)

LF: Anthony & Jones (Maybe no Duran is addition by subtraction?)

CF: Rafaela & White (same)

RF: Abreu & Campbell (AAA) same

DH: Platoon: Gasper/Sogard and Romy/Jones (Brannon/ Jo Garcia?)

It's obvious these 9 lack true star status. Some come close, especially if you compare to positional peers- like Contreras, Rutschman, Mead & Anthony on offense and Rafaela, Durbin & Abreu on overall value. You think, wow that's 7 very good players, and maybe that amount makes up for the lack of a stud bat, but I'm not so sure that and a top 3 pitching staff is enough. The obvious positions to upgrade look like DH, which could be LF and 2B by moving Anthony or Mead to DH and SS, if we trade Arias + ____ for a proven SS with a big bat.

Some serious choices need to be made.  Running back essentially the same team and hoping Mead, Crochet and a full season from Anthony and Rutschman can tip the scales seems to reliant on 95% health. I'm done with hope for health as a strategy. I've long been done with hoping JH will spend bigly. We need to make a couple bold moves.

you are right but if the sox eat the Duran and story salary they could get maybe Goodman from Colorado, goodman played of but he could DH or IB, he isn't that good a catcher but he might be to sometimes also

there has to be a team that has a star in the making they can't sign that would take Duran and story for free...

[notin]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

you are right but if the sox eat the Duran and story salary they could get maybe Goodman from Colorado, goodman played of but he could DH or IB, he isn't that good a catcher but he might be to sometimes also

there has to be a team that has a star in the making they can't sign that would take Duran and story for free...

There is not Rockies wanted a ton for Goodman.  The Sox pivoted to Rutschman because he did cost less, despite also costing a ton.

Story will be in Boston next year with Arias on call for when he gets hurt. This isn’t a bad thing.

Duran might be moved but a lot of that depends on what happens tjis off-season wuth Anthony…

[notin]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree that we simply cannot make plans based on 500+ PAs from Anthony. I do think Brez attempted to mitigate that fact during the season and both Mead and AR are back for 2027, too. (Mead for 3 more seasons.)

Those two players are not chumps, and they both cost a pretty penny. Those two in season moves, not even counting the Miller trade were the largest since Schawrber.

The thing is, they (plus Contreras & Durbin) needed to make up for the loss of  not just Anthony but also Story, Devers and Bregman. The big drop off from Duran hurt, too.

Maybe I'm too high on Mead and AR, but I see them as significant additions for the full 2027 season, but we need more.

If the Sox can’t count on Anthony, why do you think they should move Duran and Yoshida? 

[NHNative]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

There is not Rockies wanted a ton for Goodman.  The Sox pivoted to Rutschman because he did cost less, despite also costing a ton.

Story will be in Boston next year with Arias on call for when he gets hurt. This isn’t a bad thing.

Duran might be moved but a lot of that depends on what happens tjis off-season wuth Anthony…

I hope Duran stays, but he wasn't on my must have list.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree that we simply cannot make plans based on 500+ PAs from Anthony. I do think Brez attempted to mitigate that fact during the season and both Mead and AR are back for 2027, too. (Mead for 3 more seasons.)

Those two players are not chumps, and they both cost a pretty penny. Those two in season moves, not even counting the Miller trade were the largest since Schawrber.

The thing is, they (plus Contreras & Durbin) needed to make up for the loss of  not just Anthony but also Story, Devers and Bregman. The big drop off from Duran hurt, too.

Maybe I'm too high on Mead and AR, but I see them as significant additions for the full 2027 season, but we need more.

Just watched the last few innings of the Brewers' win. Milwaukee has Cheerios and the Sox have Mr Softee.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If the Sox can’t count on Anthony, why do you think they should move Duran and Yoshida? 

Duran is barely replacement level. I have more faith in White-Jones and Yoshida than him.

I'm fine with dumping Yoshida or Duran, but dumping both was tied to the idea we sign BLowe (2B/LF) or Suzuki. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, NHNative said:

I hope Duran stays, but he wasn't on my must have list.

$8-9M is just too much. 

I'm not sure I'd pay $4-5M, when we already have Anthony, Rafaela & Abreu.

Depth: Yoshida, White & Jones (AAA: Eaton, Ward & Campbell)

Name a better choice to replace:

C- Rutschman, 1B- Contreras, 2B-Mead/Story, SS- Arias/Story, 3B- Durbin, LF-Anthony, CF- Rafaela, RF- Abreu, DH- Yoshida/Gasper/Romy/Jones/Sogard

Maybe DH? Nobody else is close.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/1/2026 at 6:41 PM, moonslav59 said:

He's barely got 500 PAs and still has a decent career OBP of .371 and an .803 OPS.

Harsh.

The injuries suck.

i never said I was giving up on him only that he has not lived up to his #1 prospect in baseball mantra yet due in part of course to injuries.  He needs to make a big step next year if there is any baseball played.

[Randy Red Sox]

6 hours ago, NHNative said:

I hope Duran stays, but he wasn't on my must have list.

and you know he will get hurt at some point.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i never said I was giving up on him only that he has not lived up to his #1 prospect in baseball mantra yet due in part of course to injuries.  He needs to make a big step next year if there is any baseball played.

My point is there was never a mantra that stated that he'd be 100% healthy and do better than .800 in his first 500-1000 PAs. Sure, there was hype that he'd end up being a star, but nobody I know said he'd be an all star from day one. I doubt anyone said it here, either.

[mvp 78]

On 10/2/2026 at 8:15 PM, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

If I was a gambler, I would bet most of us will be dead before the Sox win another championship. 

Just be happy we were alive to celebrate four of them.

Considering the age of some of the posters around here. 🤔

[mvp 78]

On 10/3/2026 at 3:10 PM, notin said:

No it isn’t.

Anthony has 545 career plate appearances with an OPS of .803 and an OPS+ of 126.  At AGE TWENTY-TWO!

Thats not hype. That’s not hindsight.  That’s hitting…

I'm not making any further judgements on him until his hand is actually healed. 

[mvp 78]

On 10/3/2026 at 7:01 PM, moonslav59 said:

3 major reasons to get to yes...

1. We need a 30+ HR bat.

2. We need a LHB more than a RHB.

3. 2 positional slots near the top of the upgrade list are LF/DH and 2B/DH: BLowe can fill either one. (Mead or Anthony can DH, and BLowe offers some flex on both or just one.)

I get the age 32 issue. I totally get the "back end" decline aspect of these signings. There are risks and downsides. There are risks and downsides to signing players with no MLB experience, too. Different risks but still risks.

Lowe has no power to LF. Per Statcast, Fenway would be absolutely terrible for his swing. Murakami uses an all fields approach and may have been more successful here. Lowe? IDK. I believe that his pull heavy approach would lose a lot of fly balls to RF that would be HR elsewhere. 

I think they are going to stick with Story for one more season, Lowe just seem to be a less likely option. 

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, Old Red said:

You think the Atlanta GM was shocked Boston was willing to throw in so much money?

It's how they factored in which prospect to select. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, notin said:

If the Sox can’t count on Anthony, why do you think they should move Duran and Yoshida? 

If you believe in WAR, Duran was a replacement level player this year. You could swap him out with a AAAA guy and get the same results. Why worry about letting him walk no matter what happens with Anthony? The replacement for Masa is Mead. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you believe in WAR, Duran was a replacement level player this year. You could swap him out with a AAAA guy and get the same results. Why worry about letting him walk no matter what happens with Anthony? The replacement for Masa is Mead. 

I feel quite confident that Mead will play 2b or 3b next year opening day, and Roman will be a DH (or not ready)

[drewski6]

The argument against keeping Duran is that he can prob still start and may be a locker room issue if hes asked to come off the bench....And you are never going to get past the yankees if your opening day lineup includes duran, durbin, cedanne (who disappears in the playoffs with the bat), and 5'11 lets work in a rookie Arias.

If your catcher is hitting second, thats a real issue.

[drewski6]

I do think Duran provides more as a fourth OF than most guys. And I also dont think 9m is outrageous for a fourth OF.  For goodness sake, if arb 2 guys are "too rich for our blood" then I hope they cancel teh season.  But I am concerned about him being a moody judy not playing every day.

[JimEd]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you believe in WAR, Duran was a replacement level player this year. You could swap him out with a AAAA guy and get the same results. Why worry about letting him walk no matter what happens with Anthony? The replacement for Masa is Mead. 

say what you want about Duran but at least he showed up to work every freakin' day, which is more than you can say for nearly every player on the team. and his AAV salary is basically the same as Kristian Campbell who is essentially a AAAA player in Worcester.

[JimEd]

31 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I do think Duran provides more as a fourth OF than most guys. And I also dont think 9m is outrageous for a fourth OF.  For goodness sake, if arb 2 guys are "too rich for our blood" then I hope they cancel teh season.  But I am concerned about him being a moody judy not playing every day.

if they're paying KC 7.7M AAV to play outfield in Worcester, then they can pay a fourth OF $8M to play in Boston.

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you believe in WAR, Duran was a replacement level player this year. You could swap him out with a AAAA guy and get the same results. Why worry about letting him walk no matter what happens with Anthony? The replacement for Masa is Mead. 

I don’t believe in WAR, and I don’t think you need any analytics to tell you what kind of year Duran had. The only question is whether, or not he’ll come back next year, or this is what he is now. Trade him, and find out.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I feel quite confident that Mead will play 2b or 3b next year opening day, and Roman will be a DH (or not ready)

No chance he plays 3b if Durbin is on the roster. 

[NHNative]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t believe in WAR, and I don’t think you need any analytics to tell you what kind of year Duran had. The only question is whether, or not he’ll come back next year, or this is what he is now. Trade him, and find out.

Or keep him and find out.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The argument against keeping Duran is that he can prob still start and may be a locker room issue if hes asked to come off the bench....And you are never going to get past the yankees if your opening day lineup includes duran, durbin, cedanne (who disappears in the playoffs with the bat), and 5'11 lets work in a rookie Arias.

If your catcher is hitting second, thats a real issue.

The Rafaela I saw at the end of the year looked very injured to me. He needs more time off during the year. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, JimEd said:

if they're paying KC 7.7M AAV to play outfield in Portland, then they can pay a fourth OF $8M to play in Boston.

Last time KC was in POR was 2024. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t believe in WAR

Ok. 

[NHNative]

Wait come 11 am EST...not sure if 'interesting' is the right word....but.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ok. 

Do you really need that to really tell how a player is really playing?

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Or keep him and find out.

That too.