A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[NHNative]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Our dignity?

You're killing me and Max just groaned.

[Hitch]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

No it isn’t.

Anthony has 545 career plate appearances with an OPS of .803 and an OPS+ of 126.  At AGE TWENTY-TWO!

Thats not hype. That’s not hindsight.  That’s hitting…

You've misunderstood. I was saying Old Red's opinion is skewed by hindsight and that Anthony was very much seen as the most important offensive weapon going into the season.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

You've misunderstood. I was saying Old Red's opinion is skewed by hindsight and that Anthony was very much seen as the most important offensive weapon going into the season.

Old Red’s viewpoint is flat out incorrect.  He might have had unrealistic expectations or (more likely) solely judges everything by some singular stat like RBIs.  But to say Anthony isn’t living up to the hype is more of a statement about how little done understand hype…

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Old Red’s viewpoint is flat out incorrect.  He might have had unrealistic expectations or (more likely) solely judges everything by some singular stat like RBIs.  But to say Anthony isn’t living up to the hype is more of a statement about how little done understand hype…

Red also feels like he has some unique ability to fully know what the majority of Sox Nation believes and the rest of us are isolated in cocoons and and are out of touch. The next fallacy is, he believes that what the majority of what Sox Nation thinks is somehow correct or the most important the actual truth.

Yes, ours and others' prospects are hyped and sometimes overhyped. Yes, sometimes to many times they never reach the expectations or hypes. Therefore all must be labelled "suspects" until proven not to be, and the proven not to be is only allowed under his singular methodology that often relies mainly on things like RBIs for everyday players and wins for pitchers.

Once he gets a firm opinion on a player, manager or GM, there is no room for adjustments, because he feels admitting being wrong is a sign of weakness- and this is what I perceive to be the trilogy of fallacy for Ole Red.

To be fair, I do think Anthony has not fulfilled what most expected, because hardly anyone expects more than half the time lost to injury. In the time he did play, he likely fell short of expected power, but his OBP was likely better and the .803 OPS should be be viewed us underwhelming, at all.

Mayer and Campbell surely got off to bad starts, and while the jury is still out, their expectations have taken a serious hit. What is missing from all the "suspect" talk from Red is when rookies overperform, and we saw Tolle, early and Bennett start of way better than expects, and with Bennett shockingly so.

Many rightfully questioned the high expectations for Narvaez after a nice rookie season, but they also questioned Durbin's projections based on a good 2025 rookie season. One poster questioned Rafaela's continued growth and improvement and projected decline or stalled growth. I projected age curve growth for most of our pre-prime players and was disappointed (and wrong) about several of them.

Here's what grinds me: I hear things like "Anthony was overhyped and nobody will admit they were wrong." For one, not a single poster I know said anything about expecting greatness from Roman in year one, so claiming they were wrong is based on a false interpretation of opinions. Secondly, the claim that he's been a failure is up for debate. While injuries have kept his production down, a .370 OBP and .800 OPS is far from being a failure for anybody's first 500 or so PAs in MLB. It just isn't. It shouldn't be debatable, IMO. The missed time, yes, but not what he's done when he's played. Also, factor in that's played hurt for some of his time. No doubt, a player on the IL or bench provides no value, but it doesn't make him a bust or worthy of slanderous comments about a non existent "pinky" injury. (He thinks he's being cute with the underhanded slander, then wonders why players hate playing in boston or wilt under the pressure from the media and fanbase. With fans like Red, no wonder they bolt.)

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Explain.

Why would the Sox sign a 31yo left-handed Curtis Mead coming off the best season of his career?  Lowe isn’t the difference maker the Sox need; he’s redundant here, and 3 years from now folks will be trying to package him and his last two years off like they are Yoshida and Story.

The only free agent bat that is intriguing me is Teruaki Sato, who is basically Murekami but with some OF skill. .392 OBP and .660 SLG in Japan.  After the successesghggg that Murakami and (to some degree) Okamoto had this year, I hope the Sox can be more involved.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would the Sox sign a 31yo left-handed Curtis Mead coming off the best season of his career? 

3 major reasons to get to yes...

1. We need a 30+ HR bat.

2. We need a LHB more than a RHB.

3. 2 positional slots near the top of the upgrade list are LF/DH and 2B/DH: BLowe can fill either one. (Mead or Anthony can DH, and BLowe offers some flex on both or just one.)

I get the age 32 issue. I totally get the "back end" decline aspect of these signings. There are risks and downsides. There are risks and downsides to signing players with no MLB experience, too. Different risks but still risks.

[moonslav59]

Here is a list of the best seasons since 2024 by our current players:

fWAR Player (OPS)

6.9 Duran 2024 .834

4.1 Rafaela 2026 ,761

4.0 Contreras 2026 .901

3.6 Abreu 2025 .786

3.2 Story 2025 .733

3.1 Durbin 2026- .710 (.721 in '25)

3.0 Rutschman 2026 (5.6 in '23 and '24)

2.8 Anthony 2025 (1/2 season) .859 

1.5 Mead 2026 (1/2 season)- .851

If you double Anthony and Mead's best seasons, we'd have 9 players with a 3.0+ fWAR season. This is not all that much speculation: we have 7 players with 3.0 proven and 2 who have projected to 3 or more.

Others:

1.5 Romy 2025 ,826

1.2 Sogard 2026 (1/3 season) .727 (Could be over 3 with 650 PAs)

1.2 Wong 2024 .758

0.9 Yoshida 2024 .765

0.8 Gasper 2026 (1/3 season) .823

0.7 Casas 2024 (1/3 season) .800

0.4 Seigler 2026 (1/4 season) .758

 

[moonslav59]

Best fWAR pitching seasons since 2024:

5.7 Crochet 2025

4.1 Tolle 2026

4.1 Suarez 2025

3.8 Houck 2024

3.8 Gray 2024 (5.4 in 2023)

2.3 Bennett (2/3 season)

1.9 Bello 2024

1.8 Crawford 2024

0.2 Oviedo  (1.8 in 2023)

RP

2..6 Chapman 2025

2.2 Whitlock 2025

1.5 Slaten 2024

1.0 Guerrero 2026

0.7 Weissert 2025

0.5 Gamboa 2026 (fraction of a season)

 

[oldtimer]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

3 major reasons to get to yes...

1. We need a 30+ HR bat.

2. We need a LHB more than a RHB.

3. 2 positional slots near the top of the upgrade list are LF/DH and 2B/DH: BLowe can fill either one. (Mead or Anthony can DH, and BLowe offers some flex on both or just one.)

I get the age 32 issue. I totally get the "back end" decline aspect of these signings. There are risks and downsides. There are risks and downsides to signing players with no MLB experience, too. Different risks but still risks.

My concern is that many of the players we relied on for offense regressed later in the season and I wondered why. Abreu for instance seemed to overswing and seldom make solid contacr. Rafaela remained aggressive but was back to swinging at balls well off the plate. Anthony was taking pitches over the plate at going to full counts before swinging at balls off the plate. Duran was just not seeing the ball and piling up strikeouts. We will rely on at least some of these guys in 2027, assuming there is a season, and I wonder what our hitting coaches are doing to Help these and other players get out of their bad habits.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

My concern is that many of the players we relied on for offense regressed later in the season and I wondered why. Abreu for instance seemed to overswing and seldom make solid contacr. Rafaela remained aggressive but was back to swinging at balls well off the plate. Anthony was taking pitches over the plate at going to full counts before swinging at balls off the plate. Duran was just not seeing the ball and piling up strikeouts. We will rely on at least some of these guys in 2027, assuming there is a season, and I wonder what our hitting coaches are doing to Help these and other players get out of their bad habits.

It's hard to know what the issue is which makes it hard to fix. It's not like we can trade for September hitters only.

How do you coach late season batting?

Is it a conditioning issue?

[Old Red]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Red also feels like he has some unique ability to fully know what the majority of Sox Nation believes and the rest of us are isolated in cocoons and and are out of touch. The next fallacy is, he believes that what the majority of what Sox Nation thinks is somehow correct or the most important the actual truth.

Yes, ours and others' prospects are hyped and sometimes overhyped. Yes, sometimes to many times they never reach the expectations or hypes. Therefore all must be labelled "suspects" until proven not to be, and the proven not to be is only allowed under his singular methodology that often relies mainly on things like RBIs for everyday players and wins for pitchers.

Once he gets a firm opinion on a player, manager or GM, there is no room for adjustments, because he feels admitting being wrong is a sign of weakness- and this is what I perceive to be the trilogy of fallacy for Ole Red.

To be fair, I do think Anthony has not fulfilled what most expected, because hardly anyone expects more than half the time lost to injury. In the time he did play, he likely fell short of expected power, but his OBP was likely better and the .803 OPS should be be viewed us underwhelming, at all.

Mayer and Campbell surely got off to bad starts, and while the jury is still out, their expectations have taken a serious hit. What is missing from all the "suspect" talk from Red is when rookies overperform, and we saw Tolle, early and Bennett start of way better than expects, and with Bennett shockingly so.

Many rightfully questioned the high expectations for Narvaez after a nice rookie season, but they also questioned Durbin's projections based on a good 2025 rookie season. One poster questioned Rafaela's continued growth and improvement and projected decline or stalled growth. I projected age curve growth for most of our pre-prime players and was disappointed (and wrong) about several of them.

Here's what grinds me: I hear things like "Anthony was overhyped and nobody will admit they were wrong." For one, not a single poster I know said anything about expecting greatness from Roman in year one, so claiming they were wrong is based on a false interpretation of opinions. Secondly, the claim that he's been a failure is up for debate. While injuries have kept his production down, a .370 OBP and .800 OPS is far from being a failure for anybody's first 500 or so PAs in MLB. It just isn't. It shouldn't be debatable, IMO. The missed time, yes, but not what he's done when he's played. Also, factor in that's played hurt for some of his time. No doubt, a player on the IL or bench provides no value, but it doesn't make him a bust or worthy of slanderous comments about a non existent "pinky" injury. (He thinks he's being cute with the underhanded slander, then wonders why players hate playing in boston or wilt under the pressure from the media and fanbase. With fans like Red, no wonder they bolt.)

Wow! More charges, and accusations. Seriously though thank you for all the kind words, and accolades. I’ll keep working hard, and keep coming up with  names, and slogans that fit the situations. Tracy definitely deserves some recognition for his underwhelming performance in his brief cameo appearance during the postseason. Bad Chad, or maybe Spacey Tracey. We’ll see. As for little Anthony maybe the Red Sox should trade him to the Marlins. He’s already spent a lot of time in Florida this past season so that should have helped him get used to the weather. You know when the Red Sox sent him there wink, wink to just rehab. Anyway always nice chatting with you. Have a good day, and football you bet!🙃

[JAG]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

3 major reasons to get to yes...

1. We need a 30+ HR bat.

2. We need a LHB more than a RHB.

3. 2 positional slots near the top of the upgrade list are LF/DH and 2B/DH: BLowe can fill either one. (Mead or Anthony can DH, and BLowe offers some flex on both or just one.)

I get the age 32 issue. I totally get the "back end" decline aspect of these signings. There are risks and downsides. There are risks and downsides to signing players with no MLB experience, too. Different risks but still risks.

I agree, Lowe will help in 2027 and lets worry about 2028 after next season, there aren't many offense on the free agent market and Lowe should be the target. for next season...they can't go into next season without adding some power

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Wow! More charges, and accusations. Seriously though thank you for all the kind words, and accolades. I’ll keep working hard, and keep coming up with  names, and slogans that fit the situations. Tracy definitely deserves some recognition for his underwhelming performance in his brief cameo appearance during the postseason. Bad Chad, or maybe Spacey Tracey. We’ll see. As for little Anthony maybe the Red Sox should trade him to the Marlins. He’s already spent a lot of time in Florida this past season so that should have helped him get used to the weather. You know when the Red Sox sent him there wink, wink to just rehab. Anyway always nice chatting with you. Have a good day, and football you bet!🙃

More proof.

[Bellhorn04]

On 10/3/2026 at 11:13 AM, JoeBrady said:

A lot of fans thought Sale was untradeable at the time.  In the 5 between 2019-2023, Sale was 17-18 in total, with a 4.16.  That's $132M for 17 wins.  The idea that we were getting ANYTHING is beyond preposterous.

But as it turns out it was a fantastic buy-low deal for Atlanta.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sale trade may have made sense in isolation.  But if you look at it in the context of that offseason, Breslow failed.  Because we were all screaming for big upgrades in the starting pitching.  By trading Sale and signing Giolito Breslow essentially did nothing.  I looked at the pre-season projections for Sale and Giolito and they were virtually identical, about 2.5 WAR.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sale trade may have made sense in isolation.  But if you look at it in the context of that offseason, Breslow failed.  Because we were all screaming for big upgrades in the starting pitching.  By trading Sale and signing Giolito Breslow essentially did nothing.  I looked at the pre-season projections for Sale and Giolito and they were virtually identical, about 2.5 WAR.

Well said. Sale even came on in relief the other day to get 4 outs after starting a couple of days earlier.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, JAG said:

I agree, Lowe will help in 2027 and lets worry about 2028 after next season, there aren't many offense on the free agent market and Lowe should be the target. for next season...they can't go into next season without adding some power

We've done well with trades, but I fear the trade capital is getting to low to expect any major impact player that way. We'd have to open up a new hole to create a major upgrade somewhere else. It would be like whack-a-mole.

I do think we need to keep the extended future in mind, if not, we end up with more Storys and Yoshidas. Those two are a significant reason we couldn't improve more last winter and again, this winter. Sure, it's easy to just say, "Henry needs to spend more," but how has that argument been going since 2019?

I brought up BLowe because I think he checks a few boxes- some major ones, but he does come with some serious risks, namely his age (32,) a likely lengthy deal and the budget hit.

There are other nice bats out there as FAs, but not many. We haven't been winning many bidding wars for bats. I think the last one was JD- back in the DD era. We do have a few big trading chips, and I get the win now argument. We've just gone 7 years with just 3 playoff teams and one (2021) that advanced beyond round one. The problem is that guys like Primera & Valera and all the recent draftees don't have a very high value vs what I consider their upside potential value. The gap is just too wide for me to think it's worth dealing one away. The two big value prospects happen to be major factors in our near and extended future outlook. 

Story sucks at SS defense and Godbout is not MLB ready or a sure bet. Arias is not a sure bet either, and the spectacle of Mayer and Campbell has put doubts in all our minds on how much faith we can put in Arias. Monasterio & Cheng or inferior defenders like Sogard at SS are not championship level SS options. Depth- fine: wire to wire SSs- no way. We really need Arias or use him to trade for a bonafide, proven SS.

Contreras is 35 and has another season of control plus an option year. The timing works out perfectly for Justin Gonzales to move into the 1B slot. JG is our only other blue or near-blue chip prospect trade value. 1Bmen seem easier to find than SSs, so maybe we could risk trading him, but he alone will not give us a major upgrade. (We do have Casas, Gasper, Sogard, Romy and maybe Brannon as 1B depth, which is better than our SS depth, but again, none seem like wire-to-wire players or "good enough" platoon combos.) One idea might be to trade Gonzales + Mead for a stud middle infielder, or JG + Contreras for an even better 1Bman, or JG + Anthony for a stud LF'er or SS. I'm not sure how this theory plays out in real time, though.

We aren't getting anything by trading Duran, Story and or Yoshida, except a little salary relief. Duran's $8-9M arb estimate is significant, and if we can't trade him, we can just non tender him and save a good amount of our winter sending budget space. Yoshida + Story might net a $7-10M savings, unless we attach some mid-level prospects with them. Maybe we can save $15M. We have some decent depth to hardly notice any or all of the three being gone. White & Jones for Duran, Arias & Co for Story, and about 5-6 players and platoons for Yoshida at DH. I'm not sure how much we can get for $10-15M, but if we add it to the amount JH plans on giving Brez, it should help. We have $21M for Gray, $6M for IKF and $9M for Sandoval coming off the books, too. Only Gray needs replacing, unless we roll the dice on Crochet taking his slot and nearly everyone remaining healthy.

The everyday player core without Story, Duran and Yoshida looks like this:

C: Rutschman & Wong (better than our 2026 catchers)

1B: Contreras & Sogard/Romy/Gasper/Casas (maybe the depth makes up for an expected decline from our 35 y/o 1Bman.)

2B: Mead & Seagler/Romy (huge upgrade)

SS: Arias & Monasterio/Cheng (Big question, but our SS position sucked in 2026)

3B: Durbin & Sogard/Monasterio (same- maybe a small uptick?)

LF: Anthony & Jones (Maybe no Duran is addition by subtraction?)

CF: Rafaela & White (same)

RF: Abreu & Campbell (AAA) same

DH: Platoon: Gasper/Sogard and Romy/Jones (Brannon/ Jo Garcia?)

It's obvious these 9 lack true star status. Some come close, especially if you compare to positional peers- like Contreras, Rutschman, Mead & Anthony on offense and Rafaela, Durbin & Abreu on overall value. You think, wow that's 7 very good players, and maybe that amount makes up for the lack of a stud bat, but I'm not so sure that and a top 3 pitching staff is enough. The obvious positions to upgrade look like DH, which could be LF and 2B by moving Anthony or Mead to DH and SS, if we trade Arias + ____ for a proven SS with a big bat.

Some serious choices need to be made.  Running back essentially the same team and hoping Mead, Crochet and a full season from Anthony and Rutschman can tip the scales seems to reliant on 95% health. I'm done with hope for health as a strategy. I've long been done with hoping JH will spend bigly. We need to make a couple bold moves.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But as it turns out it was a fantastic buy-low deal for Atlanta.

Agreed, and to roast the GM for giving up on a 5 year injury project is equally preposterous.

Ultimately, GMs are judged in hindsight, and the deal sucked. I get that. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and to roast the GM for giving up on a 5 year injury project is equally preposterous.

Ultimately, GMs are judged in hindsight, and the deal sucked. I get that. To me, Bloom's failures in other areas were more worthy of criticism.

 

See my other post about the context thing.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sale trade may have made sense in isolation.  But if you look at it in the context of that offseason, Breslow failed.  Because we were all screaming for big upgrades in the starting pitching.  By trading Sale and signing Giolito Breslow essentially did nothing.  I looked at the pre-season projections for Sale and Giolito and they were virtually identical, about 2.5 WAR.

One thing is GIO's 2.5 projection seemed more likely than Sale's. We can point to Gio's second half struggles the year before as a sign of pending doom, but Sale had a 5 year record of absolutely no confidante in even being able to start 10-15 games. Gio had a history of taking the ball 25-30 times a season. That's what we really needed.

We can see what hoping on Crochet, Houck, Sandoval, Oviedo and Crawford can do to a team.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

See my other post about the context thing.

I just saw it and responded.

I still think the deal and the subsequent Gio signing made sense at the time.

The hindsight grade is a D- to an F, even with the decent second season from Gio.

Sale is like a Cy Young pitcher again, and Grissom was a major bust. We really needed a 2Bman, badly. We have since before the trade and up to the Mead deal- which spans 6 years. An effort was made to fix 2B, and like other attempts to fix it, we failed miserably.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

One thing is GIO's 2.5 projection seemed more likely than Sale's. We can point to Gio's second half struggles the year before as a sign of pending doom, but Sale had a 5 year record of absolutely no confidante in even being able to start 10-15 games. Gio had a history of taking the ball 25-30 times a season. That's what we really needed.

We can see what hoping on Crochet, Houck, Sandoval, Oviedo and Crawford can do to a team.

In principle, equal projections can only seem more likely to a biased observer.

They should have signed Giolito and kept Sale and that would have improved the projections for the rotation.

Anyway, we should stop talking about that trade altogether.  Don't bring it up again!  🙂

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

In principle, equal projections can only seem more likely to a biased observer.

They should have signed Giolito and kept Sale and that would have improved the projections for the rotation.

Anyway, we should stop talking about that trade altogether.  Don't bring it up again!  🙂

Nothing new has been said about the trade for a long time.

Grissom was just as suspect as Sale. Sale had much greater upside, but the odds he'd come back were so long, I'm going to ever bash a GM for rolling the dice.

ATL rolled snake eyes,

I'm fine with putting this to rest. I'm also at the point where I'm done talking about Duran, too. Just trade him, non-tender him or whatever. Just end the thing.

(Of course making that choice will be discussed for years, too... LOL)

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and to roast the GM for giving up on a 5 year injury project is equally preposterous.

Ultimately, GMs are judged in hindsight, and the deal sucked. I get that. 

 

Did he roast the GM, or mercilessly roast the GM? Was it preposterous, or mercilessly preposterous. You crack me up that you think you have to come to the defense of a player, Manager, GM, or a owner like you were self elected to do so, and think you’re Deputy Dawg with a badge.🙈🤭

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nothing new has been said about the trade for a long time.

Grissom was just as suspect as Sale. Sale had much greater upside, but the odds he'd come back were so long, I'm going to ever bash a GM for rolling the dice.

ATL rolled snake eyes,

I'm fine with putting this to rest. I'm also at the point where I'm done talking about Duran, too. Just trade him, non-tender him or whatever. Just end the thing.

(Of course making that choice will be discussed for years, too... LOL)

The last point I want to make about Sale is this.  In spite of all the injuries, at the end of the 2023 season he seemed to be healthy.  And Atlanta would not have gone through with the trade and subsequent extension if they hadn't examined him and found him to be healthy.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Did he roast the GM, or mercilessly roast the GM? Was it preposterous, or mercilessly preposterous. You crack me up that you think you have to come to the defense of a player, Manager, GM, or a owner like you were self elected to do so, and think you’re Deputy Dawg with a badge.🙈🤭

More proof.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The last point I want to make about Sale is this.  In spite of all the injuries, at the end of the 2023 season he seemed to be healthy.  And Atlanta would not have gone through with the trade and subsequent extension if they hadn't examined him and found him to be healthy.

Okay, I'll bite:

Sale ended 2018 healthy and with an 0.96 ERA in his last 11 starts. Yes, he missed some of August but finished strongly. Yes he struggled in the first playoff series that season, but he did help us win a ring.

He missed the first 4 months of 2021, and came back looking very good to end the season (3.16 ERA) Again, he stumbled in the first playoff series but did okay v HOU in the ALCS.

He ended the 2023 season doing pretty well, but not better than '18 and '21. (3.92 ERA in last 9 starts and 3.60 last 4 starts.)

I saw no reason to have better hopes after 2023 than other seasons.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The last point I want to make about Sale is this.  In spite of all the injuries, at the end of the 2023 season he seemed to be healthy.  And Atlanta would not have gone through with the trade and subsequent extension if they hadn't examined him and found him to be healthy.

You think the Atlanta GM was shocked Boston was willing to throw in so much money?

[Hitch]

21 hours ago, notin said:

Old Red’s viewpoint is flat out incorrect.  He might have had unrealistic expectations or (more likely) solely judges everything by some singular stat like RBIs.  But to say Anthony isn’t living up to the hype is more of a statement about how little done understand hype…

 

That may well be. It is separate to the point(s) I was making, however. He was our, or at least one of our, most important offensive players going into the season and we lost him for a large part of it. Now he has question marks over him going into next year (around health) and we can't build a project around him. 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You think the Atlanta GM was shocked Boston was willing to throw in so much money?

They likely demanded it, as they too saw the great risk in adding a pitcher with that 5 year trend of not taking the ball. They probably asked for more.