A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[NHNative]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Our dignity?

You're killing me and Max just groaned.

[Hitch]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

No it isn’t.

Anthony has 545 career plate appearances with an OPS of .803 and an OPS+ of 126.  At AGE TWENTY-TWO!

Thats not hype. That’s not hindsight.  That’s hitting…

You've misunderstood. I was saying Old Red's opinion is skewed by hindsight and that Anthony was very much seen as the most important offensive weapon going into the season.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

You've misunderstood. I was saying Old Red's opinion is skewed by hindsight and that Anthony was very much seen as the most important offensive weapon going into the season.

Old Red’s viewpoint is flat out incorrect.  He might have had unrealistic expectations or (more likely) solely judges everything by some singular stat like RBIs.  But to say Anthony isn’t living up to the hype is more of a statement about how little done understand hype…

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Old Red’s viewpoint is flat out incorrect.  He might have had unrealistic expectations or (more likely) solely judges everything by some singular stat like RBIs.  But to say Anthony isn’t living up to the hype is more of a statement about how little done understand hype…

Red also feels like he has some unique ability to fully know what the majority of Sox Nation believes and the rest of us are isolated in cocoons and and are out of touch. The next fallacy is, he believes that what the majority of what Sox Nation thinks is somehow correct or the most important the actual truth.

Yes, ours and others' prospects are hyped and sometimes overhyped. Yes, sometimes to many times they never reach the expectations or hypes. Therefore all must be labelled "suspects" until proven not to be, and the proven not to be is only allowed under his singular methodology that often relies mainly on things like RBIs for everyday players and wins for pitchers.

Once he gets a firm opinion on a player, manager or GM, there is no room for adjustments, because he feels admitting being wrong is a sign of weakness- and this is what I perceive to be the trilogy of fallacy for Ole Red.

To be fair, I do think Anthony has not fulfilled what most expected, because hardly anyone expects more than half the time lost to injury. In the time he did play, he likely fell short of expected power, but his OBP was likely better and the .803 OPS should be be viewed us underwhelming, at all.

Mayer and Campbell surely got off to bad starts, and while the jury is still out, their expectations have taken a serious hit. What is missing from all the "suspect" talk from Red is when rookies overperform, and we saw Tolle, early and Bennett start of way better than expects, and with Bennett shockingly so.

Many rightfully questioned the high expectations for Narvaez after a nice rookie season, but they also questioned Durbin's projections based on a good 2025 rookie season. One poster questioned Rafaela's continued growth and improvement and projected decline or stalled growth. I projected age curve growth for most of our pre-prime players and was disappointed (and wrong) about several of them.

Here's what grinds me: I hear things like "Anthony was overhyped and nobody will admit they were wrong." For one, not a single poster I know said anything about expecting greatness from Roman in year one, so claiming they were wrong is based on a false interpretation of opinions. Secondly, the claim that he's been a failure is up for debate. While injuries have kept his production down, a .370 OBP and .800 OPS is far from being a failure for anybody's first 500 or so PAs in MLB. It just isn't. It shouldn't be debatable, IMO. The missed time, yes, but not what he's done when he's played. Also, factor in that's played hurt for some of his time. No doubt, a player on the IL or bench provides no value, but it doesn't make him a bust or worthy of slanderous comments about a non existent "pinky" injury. (He thinks he's being cute with the underhanded slander, then wonders why players hate playing in boston or wilt under the pressure from the media and fanbase. With fans like Red, no wonder they bolt.)

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Explain.

Why would the Sox sign a 31yo left-handed Curtis Mead coming off the best season of his career?  Lowe isn’t the difference maker the Sox need; he’s redundant here, and 3 years from now folks will be trying to package him and his last two years off like they are Yoshida and Story.

The only free agent bat that is intriguing me is Teruaki Sato, who is basically Murekami but with some OF skill. .392 OBP and .660 SLG in Japan.  After the successesghggg that Murakami and (to some degree) Okamoto had this year, I hope the Sox can be more involved.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would the Sox sign a 31yo left-handed Curtis Mead coming off the best season of his career? 

3 major reasons to get to yes...

1. We need a 30+ HR bat.

2. We need a LHB more than a RHB.

3. 2 positional slots near the top of the upgrade list are LF/DH and 2B/DH: BLowe can fill either one. (Mead or Anthony can DH, and BLowe offers some flex on both or just one.)

I get the age 32 issue. I totally get the "back end" decline aspect of these signings. There are risks and downsides. There are risks and downsides to signing players with no MLB experience, too. Different risks but still risks.

[moonslav59]

Here is a list of the best seasons since 2024 by our current players:

fWAR Player (OPS)

6.9 Duran 2024 .834

4.1 Rafaela 2026 ,761

4.0 Contreras 2026 .901

3.6 Abreu 2025 .786

3.2 Story 2025 .733

3.1 Durbin 2026- .710 (.721 in '25)

3.0 Rutschman 2026 (5.6 in '23 and '24)

2.8 Anthony 2025 (1/2 season) .859 

1.5 Mead 2026 (1/2 season)- .851

If you double Anthony and Mead's best seasons, we'd have 9 players with a 3.0+ fWAR season. This is not all that much speculation: we have 7 players with 3.0 proven and 2 who have projected to 3 or more.

Others:

1.5 Romy 2025 ,826

1.2 Sogard 2026 (1/3 season) .727 (Could be over 3 with 650 PAs)

1.2 Wong 2024 .758

0.9 Yoshida 2024 .765

0.8 Gasper 2026 (1/3 season) .823

0.7 Casas 2024 (1/3 season) .800

0.4 Seigler 2026 (1/4 season) .758

 

[moonslav59]

Best fWAR pitching seasons since 2024:

5.7 Crochet 2025

4.1 Tolle 2026

4.1 Suarez 2025

3.8 Houck 2024

3.8 Gray 2024 (5.4 in 2023)

2.3 Bennett (2/3 season)

1.9 Bello 2024

1.8 Crawford 2024

0.2 Oviedo  (1.8 in 2023)

RP

2..6 Chapman 2025

2.2 Whitlock 2025

1.5 Slaten 2024

1.0 Guerrero 2026

0.7 Weissert 2025

0.5 Gamboa 2026 (fraction of a season)

 

[oldtimer]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

3 major reasons to get to yes...

1. We need a 30+ HR bat.

2. We need a LHB more than a RHB.

3. 2 positional slots near the top of the upgrade list are LF/DH and 2B/DH: BLowe can fill either one. (Mead or Anthony can DH, and BLowe offers some flex on both or just one.)

I get the age 32 issue. I totally get the "back end" decline aspect of these signings. There are risks and downsides. There are risks and downsides to signing players with no MLB experience, too. Different risks but still risks.

My concern is that many of the players we relied on for offense regressed later in the season and I wondered why. Abreu for instance seemed to overswing and seldom make solid contacr. Rafaela remained aggressive but was back to swinging at balls well off the plate. Anthony was taking pitches over the plate at going to full counts before swinging at balls off the plate. Duran was just not seeing the ball and piling up strikeouts. We will rely on at least some of these guys in 2027, assuming there is a season, and I wonder what our hitting coaches are doing to Help these and other players get out of their bad habits.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

My concern is that many of the players we relied on for offense regressed later in the season and I wondered why. Abreu for instance seemed to overswing and seldom make solid contacr. Rafaela remained aggressive but was back to swinging at balls well off the plate. Anthony was taking pitches over the plate at going to full counts before swinging at balls off the plate. Duran was just not seeing the ball and piling up strikeouts. We will rely on at least some of these guys in 2027, assuming there is a season, and I wonder what our hitting coaches are doing to Help these and other players get out of their bad habits.

It's hard to know what the issue is which makes it hard to fix. It's not like we can trade for September hitters only.

How do you coach late season batting?

Is it a conditioning issue?