Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bloom shut the bidding down in record time when he went after Masa, but it’s unlikely the Red Sox win out in a situation like this.

Hard to know. MLBTR projected $180M/8 for Murakami, and he got $34M/2,

[NHNative]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bloom shut the bidding down in record time when he went after Masa, but it’s unlikely the Red Sox win out in a situation like this.

I don't know what you guys seem to, but from what I have gleaned, Sato is about our best bet...bidding war aside.

Suzuki is good, but older and more expensive.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, NHNative said:

I don't know what you guys seem to, but from what I have gleaned, Sato is about our best bet...bidding war aside.

It would take some creative financing to get JH to agree. Deferred money. Dumping some partial contract costs. Not signing anyone else.

Even then, I'm doubtful JH goes along.

[NHNative]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It would take some creative financing to get JH to agree. Deferred money. Dumping some partial contract costs. Not signing anyone else.

Even then, I'm doubtful JH goes along.

Likely so, but ya never know. Maybe his Mom will tell him to loosen up.

[JimEd]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Squandered is Crochet, Contreras, Mead, Gray, Bennett, AR and Durbin?

and how many world series (or even AL east titles) has that got us so far? 

[Randy Red Sox]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I have no clue what Breslow will do. If the previous two offseasons are an indicator: trades will make the biggest impact and Duran/Story/Masa will still be in Boston next Summer. 

well we don't have any young quality SP available on the farm so trades will be tough since Breslow dealt away most of the top P prospects we had last season.

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, JimEd said:

and how many world series (or even AL east titles) has that got us so far? 

That doesn't mean the trades were the reason.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/11/2026 at 6:08 PM, moonslav59 said:

We may not add a SP. We have 4 coming off the IL.

Crochet is the only one that excites.  besides Houck and Oveida who am i missing? Of course new likely will add another P or 2 still on the DL.

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That doesn't mean the trades were the reason.

I agree the team is most likely better now, because of those trades, but more work has to be done.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agree the team is most likely better now, because of those trades, but more work has to be done.

True nuff, and if JH would have supplemented those deals with more than just Suarez, maybe we'd be much better.

I like the core, but if we don't do something with it, we'll have wasted all those prospect trades.

We have a lot of question marks, once again, and secondary options if a few fail, but we can't handle the decline by nearly every top PA player again next year.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Crochet is the only one that excites.  besides Houck and Oveida who am i missing? Of course new likely will add another P or 2 still on the DL.

I assume Crawford is the 4th…

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hard to know. MLBTR projected $180M/8 for Murakami, and he got $34M/2,

Sato is somewhere in between the skillset of Okamoto and Murakami. He can fake it at 3b, but should be a LFer. He's more athletic than Murakami, but less power. More power than Okamoto and his glove is a downgrade. 

[notin]

20 hours ago, NHNative said:

I gotta be honest fellas. At this point I am totally lost as to what may or may not happen with our team this winter/spring.

So is everyone else.  The fun part is waiting to see who gets upset at Breslow (labeling him an egomaniac, ironically) for not following their plan…

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sato is somewhere in between the skillset of Okamoto and Murakami. He can fake it at 3b, but should be a LFer. He's more athletic than Murakami, but less power. More power than Okamoto and his glove is a downgrade. 

DH works too 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

So is everyone else.  The fun part is waiting to see who gets upset at Breslow (labeling him an egomaniac, ironically) for not following their plan…

Breslow keeps everything close to his vest and pulls moves that we don't expect. It's virtually impossible for us to project what he'll do no matter what he says at a year end press conference. 

The team is no longer in the 78 win doldrums. The offseasons have been interesting. It could always be worse.

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Breslow keeps everything close to his vest and pulls moves that we don't expect. It's virtually impossible for us to project what he'll do no matter what he says at a year end press conference. 

The team is no longer in the 78 win doldrums. The offseasons have been interesting. It could always be worse.

And he doesn’t necessarily share our views on how to build a team..  But as I keep saying, there is no magic formula. Many insist the Sox lack of power (26th in home runs) was the flaw that stopped them.  But 3 of the 4 teams left are 22nd, 28th and 29th in home runs…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

DH works too 

Not a lot of defensive highlights that I saw for sure. Saw some Deversesque plays at 3b. To me, he swings like a RH'd Stanton. He doesn't have that big swoopy power swing like Papi or Schwarber. It's not one of those textbook LH'd swings like Griffey either. 

[Hugh2]

Three things have to happen to pull off a trade for a big bat. 

A. A big bat has to be available: Anyone can write a trade proposal for Pete Crow-Armstrong but if he's not for sale he's not for sale. 

B. You have to have assets to trade: Teams have increasingly become more reluctant to add any significant value to assets that are not MLB level, MLB ready or close to MLB ready. This is why someone like Franklin Arias is going to hold substantially more value than someone like Justin Gonazelz, and he probably represents the only minor league asset that could hold substantial weight in a package.  All our other best assets would be MLB players like Bennett, Tolle, Abreu.  

C. You have to beat every other teams offer: Trades are going to sting, while the Adley Rutchmen trade certainly surprised me, I was 100% not surprised that the price was much higher than what everyone else figured it would be.  

Given the Sox position, farm system, and the thin free agent market, I don't think it's possible to trade for a big bat unless we are trading a guy like Payton Tolle. That price might be too high for some, I might be inclined to agree with you.

Just to illustrate my point with a trade that is 100% unrealistic but to bring in a guy like Junior Caminero you are likely giving up Payton Tolle/Justin Gonzalez or a Franklin Arias/Wilyer Abreu.  Again Tampa is not trading him to us, but this illustrates the type of asset package we would have to part with to bring in a premium bat. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

And he doesn’t necessarily share our views on how to build a team..  But as I keep saying, there is no magic formula. Many insist the Sox lack of power (26th in home runs) was the flaw that stopped them.  But 3 of the 4 teams left are 22nd, 28th and 29th in home runs…

They all scored runs though, except for CLE. CLE just had the easiest path to the CS. 

LAD, MIL, TBR: top 6 wRC+ (could be the best indicator)

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Just to illustrate my point with a trade that is 100% unrealistic but to bring in a guy like Junior Caminero you are likely giving up Payton Tolle/Justin Gonzalez or a Franklin Arias/Wilyer Abreu.  Again Tampa is not trading him to us, but this illustrates the type of asset package we would have to part with to bring in a premium bat. 

Done. Make the call Brez!

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Done. Make the call Brez!

IDK, I don't think I'd want to include Arias in a trade unless the bat I'm getting back can play SS, because I'm done betting on Story.  Actually.....I had been done but that's a whole other matter. 

[notin]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They all scored runs though, except for CLE. CLE just had the easiest path to the CS. 

LAD, MIL, TBR: top 6 wRC+ (could be the best indicator)

Milwaukee was a mediocre slugger but near the top at OBP.

Something to be said for not making outs…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Milwaukee was a mediocre slugger but near the top at OBP.

Something to be said for not making outs…

MIL was 2nd in OBP last season, but only 9th in wRC+ (3rd this season). They are a slightly better team than they were last year (higher OBP, better SP, higher DRS). They were receiving a lot of accolades during the year last year, but his could be peak Brewers baseball in 2026.

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

MIL was 2nd in OBP last season, but only 9th in wRC+ (3rd this season). They are a slightly better team than they were last year (higher OBP, better SP, higher DRS). They were receiving a lot of accolades during the year last year, but his could be peak Brewers baseball in 2026.

Maybe, but they have pretty much their entire offense under team control for the next couple years with young guys like Turang under control until 2030 & Chourio until 32' 

This might be their peak, but they might be living on this peak for the next 2-4 years. 

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Crochet is the only one that excites.  besides Houck and Oveida who am i missing? Of course new likely will add another P or 2 still on the DL.

You are missing Crawford.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sato is somewhere in between the skillset of Okamoto and Murakami. He can fake it at 3b, but should be a LFer. He's more athletic than Murakami, but less power. More power than Okamoto and his glove is a downgrade. 

I don't disagree, and it's hard to know how much Sato gets offered from one GM, but if he is really somewhere between Murakami and Okamoto, we should be able to compete in the bidding.

To me, Sato is a much better projected bat than those two, but neither of them were know for defense either.

Murakami was 26 at the start of this season. He had a 1.051 OPS in 2025 but only 263 PAs (less than Mead's 2026 season you question) 24 HRs & 34 XBHs is awesome if projected to 650 PAs. In 2024, his OPS was just .851 with 33 HRs & 47 XBHs. Okay, the guy hit 56 HRs in 2022 but only had 21 2Bs. Two year totals: 57 Hrs & 81 XBHs in 873 PAs.

Okamoto had a .992 OPS in 2025 (just 314 PAs) 15 HRs and 39 XBHs projects to about 30 HRs & 78 XBHs, That's very nice! In 2024, he hit .863 with 27 HRs and 64 XBHs, The two year total: 42 HRs & 103 XBHs in 925 PAs.

Sato's numbers are mind-boggling. .991 and .924 OPS. Two year totals: 79 HRs and 160 XBHs. 80 XBHs per season is off-the-charts great.

If you give Okamoto and Murakami their projected numbers in 2024, they be at:

57 HRs & 105 XBHs Okamoto

83 HRs & 125 XBHs Murakami

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Maybe, but they have pretty much their entire offense under team control for the next couple years with young guys like Turang under control until 2030 & Chourio until 32' 

This might be their peak, but they might be living on this peak for the next 2-4 years. 

Good points, and having Harrison, Drohan and Priester for several years helps.

They do have some key players nearing loss of control:

1 year left:

Wm Contreras  .758 (2nd in PAs

Andrew Vaughn .834 (10th in PAs)

Antonio Senzatela 4.05 ERA (75 IP)

Trevor Megill 2.63 (62 IP)

Bryse Wilson 3.51 ERA (21 IP)

2 years left:

Garrett Mitchell .771 (5th in PAs)

Angel Zerpa

3 years left:

Yelich .692 (6th in PAs)

Turang .816 (1st in PA)

Ashby 3.12 (89 IP)

Ortiz .730 (7th in PAs)

Frelick .614 (9th in PAs)

Hamilton .650 (8th in PAs)

Hall 1.91 ERA (61 IP)

Naylor, Baddoo, Anderson

Conversely, the Sox lose Gray, IKF and Sandoval this winter and...

1 yr:

Chapman hurts.

Houck

Story & Yoshida are additions by subtraction.

2 yrs:

Rutschman hurts

Whitlock hurts

Duran (I project we trade him this winter.)

Crawford, Oviedo, Romy, White, Casas, Wong

3 yrs

Abreu hurts

Miller

Salten, Weissert, Kelly, Monasterio

[JoeBrady]

On 10/9/2026 at 10:03 PM, JimEd said:

the bottom line and "winning contracts" are FAR more important to Henry than winning championships.

But, he still has more championships than anyone else, right?

[JoeBrady]

On 10/11/2026 at 8:51 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

what happened to Mead who we gave up a highly regarded young SP for??

He got hit by a pitch in his first game.  You really should've known that.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/11/2026 at 1:23 AM, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

In game 5 last night the White Sox K'd 21 times breaking the old record of 19 K's in a PO game, which was also accomplished by the White Sox in game 3. The White Sox had a total of 52 strike outs in the last 3 games. The least worse team won.

I'm sure there is a lesson here about HRs and offense.  Just for fun, the remaining playoff teams were #8, #22, #27, and #29 in number of HRs hit.