Mariners (Miller) vs Red Sox (Sandoval): 09/02/26, 4:10 PM

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Eli's coming.

But the cards say a broken heart.

[Tedballgame]

12 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Somehow Bello uses 70 pitches to get through 3 innings.

Saved by a rocket shot DP started by Durbin

So much for Bello being a great reliever.

[vegasbob]

If the off season extends into mid summer next year due to CBA  wars, the extended rest and short season  may be helpful to Rutschman , before he goes FA

It will also make clearing the roster of Yoshida and Story by late trade,  DFA or just contract completion a reality.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

That beeping noise you hear is the Sox backing up.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 minute ago, Tedballgame said:

So much for Bello being a great reliever.

I guess his next demotion is ground crew.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Good shut down inning.

[vegasbob]

 Coincidence or just baseball.?

After 3+ months your alleged best leadoff hitter and your FT SS return to action , and actually perform very well for the winningnest team in baseball since mid July.

Sox promptly drop 3 of 4 games

Correlation or Causation ?

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 minute ago, vegasbob said:

 Coincidence or just baseball.?

After 3+ months your alleged best leadoff hitter and your FT SS return to action , and actually perform very well for the winningnest team in baseball since mid July.

Sox promptly drop 3 of 4 games

Correlation or Causation ?

Bad pitching. And obviously Anthony and Story getting base hits has hurt the offense.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Bad pitching. And obviously Anthony and Story getting base hits has hurt the offense.

When a team goes 32-5, payback's a bit ch.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

So much for Bello being a great reliever.

Might as well give him a shot at starting again. His run as a RP'er might be over.

[Randy Red Sox]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Might as well give him a shot at starting again. His run as a RP'er might be over.

no i want to see more of the guy we started yesterday lol

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no i want to see more of the guy we started yesterday lol

Good idea, or with 9 RP'ers now, let's go "pen game!"

[FredLynn]

The Flops strategy of tanking to the third WC would be working except for the fact that the Guardians are on to them and are tanking to the Jays as well. The Os are not far behind and could be a factor too. The Flops are perfectly capable of blowing it and watching the playoffs from home-seen this movie too many times already 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no i want to see more of the guy we started yesterday lol

I think there’s a bit of cruise control happening.

With 22 games left. the Sox are 4 back from NY and 8.5 behind Tampa.  Even if they catch NY, they really need to pass them for it to matter.

They’re 4.5 ahead of Cleveland in the last wild card and 6 ahead of Baltimore and Texas for missing the postseason entirely.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, vegasbob said:

If the off season extends into mid summer next year due to CBA  wars, the extended rest and short season  may be helpful to Rutschman , before he goes FA

It will also make clearing the roster of Yoshida and Story by late trade,  DFA or just contract completion a reality.

part of what makes the trade for AR so stupid. they miss half a season due to the lock out, he gets healthy just in time for free agency. so....we end up trading half the gotdamn farm for a half a season of an injured catcher.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

part of what makes the trade for AR so stupid. they miss half a season due to the lock out, he gets healthy just in time for free agency. so....we end up trading half the gotdamn farm for a half a season of an injured catcher.

that is exactly what i have been saying.  there is no argument anyone can make defending this trade either today or the day the trade was made.  it was a huge overpay no matter what anyone says.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think there’s a bit of cruise control happening.

With 22 games left. the Sox are 4 back from NY and 8.5 behind Tampa.  Even if they catch NY, they really need to pass them for it to matter.

They’re 4.5 ahead of Cleveland in the last wild card and 6 ahead of Baltimore and Texas for missing the postseason entirely.

i don't see them missing the postseason.  What I DO see is AR continuing to be a flop WHEN HE ACTUALLY PLAYS and then the lockout hits and we lose a signifigant part of 2027 and then he leaves as a FA.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I think there’s a bit of cruise control happening.

With 22 games left. the Sox are 4 back from NY and 8.5 behind Tampa.  Even if they catch NY, they really need to pass them for it to matter.

They’re 4.5 ahead of Cleveland in the last wild card and 6 ahead of Baltimore and Texas for missing the postseason entirely.

For example, if the Red Sox can simply go 11-11, then Cleveland would need to go 16-7 to tie.

Orioles and Rangers need 17-5 to  tie.

The difficulty in the numbers above is the Sox going 11-11 

I could be way wrong but I think 2011 showed they could not achieve .500 as Papelbon blew it

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

that is exactly what i have been saying.  there is no argument anyone can make defending this trade either today or the day the trade was made.  it was a huge overpay no matter what anyone says.

Nobody is saying it wasnt a huge overpay.

I'm not sure there will be a lock-out.

[vegasbob]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nobody is saying it wasnt a huge overpay.

I'm not sure there will be a lock-out.

It will be interesting  to see the outcome of the  CBA negotiations but I think it is a certainty that it will extend into the 2027 season schedule and J. Henry built his instructions to Breslow based on deferring extensions and FA contracts until the terms are known.

Suarez is an odd exception , especially at 31.

The fact that Tracy is still an "interim" supports the assumption of a deferred season

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, vegasbob said:

It will be interesting  to see the outcome of the  CBA negotiations but I think it is a certainty that it will extend into the 2027 season schedule and J. Henry built his instructions to Breslow based on deferring extensions and FA contracts until the terms are known.

Suarez is an odd exception , especially at 31.

The fact that Tracy is still an "interim" supports the assumption of a deferred season

Well, the Mead and AR trades go fully against this idea. Both have one year left. We traded away over 20 years from the future for 1.3 years from each.

[notin]

14 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

That beeping noise you hear is the Sox backing up.

I think they’re on a bit of cruise control right now.  The plan looks like “pace yourself, stay healthy.”  They’d rather let Jedixson Paez start and lose badly than pile IP on Sonny Gray, for example.  Yes, their record might suffer.  Does it matter?

They’re 5 behind the Yankees and 8.5 behind Toronto with only 22 games left.  And they have to pass the Yankees for it to matter.

From the other way, they’re 4.5 games ahead of Cleveland for dropping down a slot and 6 ahead of Texas and Baltimore for missing the postseason entirely.

So change is unlikely in 22 games.  Sure the Sox could have a 2011-style collapse. Obviously it’s happened before.  We had one in 2011, coincidentally.  
 

Sonce sub-.500 Texas and Baltimore can’t string together big streaks, and NY and Tampa far away, the most likely change if any happens is Cleveland passes Boston.  And then the Sox travel to Houston instead of Yankee Stadium.  Not sure that’s necessarily the worst outcome either.
 

Now I don’t think they’re tanking.  But I do think they would rather lose a few inconsequential games in the standings over burning out their staff chasing the Yankees in a futile jockey for position…

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, vegasbob said:

 Coincidence or just baseball.?

After 3+ months your alleged best leadoff hitter and your FT SS return to action , and actually perform very well for the winningnest team in baseball since mid July.

Sox promptly drop 3 of 4 games

Correlation or Causation ?

Are they the ones pitching? 

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure there will be a lock-out.

This would be a shocking development.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, the Mead and AR trades go fully against this idea. Both have one year left. We traded away over 20 years from the future for 1.3 years from each.

To me, it's less about future years and more about using those assets towards other trades that could have been more productive for the Sox. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

I think they’re on a bit of cruise control right now.  

Now I don’t think they’re tanking.  But I do think they would rather lose a few inconsequential games in the standings over burning out their staff chasing the Yankees in a futile jockey for position…

Agreed. After the dropping 3 of 4 in the Bronx, they know they're not hosting any Wild Card series.... so why push it.

And there are only 22 games left. Say they go 8-14 -- definitely doable if they're going to keep giving up 8 runs a game like the past week -- and finish with 83 wins. That still means one of the clubs chasing them: Baltimore, Toronto, Texas etc. will need to go 15-7 for Boston to miss the playoffs.

Anything's still possible, but i caution again: if they take it easy, it's not so easy a month from now to just push a button and be good again.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agreed. After the dropping 3 of 4 in the Bronx, they know they're not hosting any Wild Card series.... so why push it.

And there are only 22 games left. Say they go 8-14 -- definitely doable if they're going to keep giving up 8 runs a game like the past week -- and finish with 83 wins. That still means one of the clubs chasing them: Baltimore, Toronto, Texas etc. will need to go 15-7 for Boston to miss the playoffs.

Anything's still possible, but i caution again: if they take it easy, it's not so easy a month from now to just push a button and be good again.

In a short series, I like our chances if the starters are Gray, Tolle and Bennett. Suarez is really going through it right now. Sandoval will not be in the rotation. No bullpen games or Paez. 

[notin]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Agreed. After the dropping 3 of 4 in the Bronx, they know they're not hosting any Wild Card series.... so why push it.

And there are only 22 games left. Say they go 8-14 -- definitely doable if they're going to keep giving up 8 runs a game like the past week -- and finish with 83 wins. That still means one of the clubs chasing them: Baltimore, Toronto, Texas etc. will need to go 15-7 for Boston to miss the playoffs.

Anything's still possible, but i caution again: if they take it easy, it's not so easy a month from now to just push a button and be good again.

Whether or not that’s true, it will certainly be the story if they go out early again.

I do think it’s easier to push that button if they are rested and healthy than if they’re banged up and burned out.

The bottom line is the postseason will see 12 teams enter and 11 of them are going to end on a loss.  And then the best way to be that final team is to be as close as possible to full strength…

[notin]

9 hours ago, vegasbob said:

For example, if the Red Sox can simply go 11-11, then Cleveland would need to go 16-7 to tie.

Orioles and Rangers need 17-5 to  tie.

The difficulty in the numbers above is the Sox going 11-11 

I could be way wrong but I think 2011 showed they could not achieve .500 as Papelbon blew it

I think you’re thinking of Daniel Bard.  Papelbon pitched 9.2 IP that month with a 3.72 ERA (not great for a closer but really only 4 ER), a 7.5 K/BB and even notched two saves.

Bard was utterly horrific….

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

I think you’re thinking of Daniel Bard.  Papelbon pitched 9.2 IP that month with a 3.72 ERA (not great for a closer but really only 4 ER), a 7.5 K/BB and even notched two saves.

Bard was utterly horrific….

Paps lead the pitching staff with 1 fWAR from 9/1 on. 

Albers 10 IP 7.20 ERA

Weiland 14.2 IP 7.36 ERA (GS 3)

Lackey 23.2 IP 9.13 ERA (GS 5)

Bard 11 IP 10.64 ERA

Miller 10 IP 11.70 ERA (GS 2)