Jarren Duran Might Be Turning the Corner At the Plate In August

[Alex Mayes]

The month of August has been kind to Boston Red Sox players up and down the roster. The offense seems to be clicking again, even as the starting rotation and bullpen have taken a bit of a step backward. There’s one player that has really turned his stock around this month, and it may surprise you that I’m the one talking about it.

That’s right, we’re here to give some flowers to Jarren Duran. I’m not here to tell you he’s rediscovered his 2024 self as we’re approaching the playoffs, but he’s looking mostly passable at the plate over the last three weeks and that needs to be celebrated. 

Thus far in August, Duran is slashing .250/.304/.484 with a .335 wOBA, 111 wRC+, and 0.4 fWAR. To go along with that, he’s hit four home runs, driven in six runs, scored 12 times, and swiped three bags. What’s arguably most impressive, though, is his hard-hit rate for the month has jumped up to 53.2%, second only to the 54.5% posted by Willson Contreras. Comparing those two is really just comparing apples to oranges, but if Duran is finally rediscovering how to be an effective offensive player... well, the remainder of the season, and hopefully the postseason, will seem like a much less daunting gauntlet for the Red Sox. 

Multiple members of the Red Sox’s commentating team are fond of telling watchers and listeners of the games that Duran has the ability to ‘spark’ the offense and that it’s been missing for much of the season. There’s likely some truth to that, as Duran is at his best as a leadoff hitter with a knack for getting on base and then being a major threat to steal bags at any point. Of course, us viewers know that his biggest struggle this year has been doing just that.

He was an ineffective leadoff hitter and he has only swiped 18 bags on the season so far. The power is sort of there with him (he has 17 home runs), but it’s been pretty inconsistent and is being carried heavily by the nine home runs he hit during his one hot month in May. Many had hoped that would be the catalyst to turning his slow start around but until now, he’s been arguably the easiest out in the lineup on a nightly basis. 

It’s unclear if this sudden turnaround is here to stay or not. Duran is still in the 19th percentile for chase rate at 35.2%, the sixth percentile for whiff rate at 34%, the 13th percentile in strikeout rate at 28.4%, and the 20th percentile in walk rate at 6.7%. He’s struggling to get on base and striking out far more than he’s walking, but August seems to have pushed him in the right direction so far. He has come through with some clutch hits and driven in runs when the guys in front of him got on base as he’s been moved further down in the lineup. If—and that’s a big if—Jarren Duran can sustain this new level of offensive productivity, then he may yet prove useful to the Red Sox's ultimate ambitions. 

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[moonslav59]

I hope to God, posters razz me for years and years about how I have treated Duran over the last few months, and even years.

We really need someone to step up and do significantly better than the start of their season.

Maybe it's an IL player coming back, but I've all but given up hope on that. 

Abreu as stepped up. Durbin stepped up. Rafaela & Willson have been steady all season long, but one more guy could make all the difference in the world.

Speaking of the IL, would this team listed below be a .500 team if all 100% healthy?

IL and AAA depth

Rotation: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo (Valera)

Pen: Whitlock, Slaten, Kelly 

C: Delay/Baez/Montero (coulda been Rogers)

1B: Romy/Casas

2B: Story/Romy

SS: Arias/Story

3B: IKF/Romero

LF: Mead/Campbell

CF: Anthony/Eaton

RF: Campbell/Anthony

DH: Yoshida/Campbell

That's a pretty decent team, to me.

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope to God, posters razz me for years and years about how I have treated Duran over the last few months, and even years.

I wouldn't do that.  I've preached patience with Duran, but I can easily see why fans wanted some change.  This is not like some of the posts where fans turn on players for a bad week, or a bad outing. or in the case of Fred, two bad ABs in the 1st ST game.

And I still like Duran, but there is almost no guarantee that he will continue his mini-streak, or conversely, go on an even bigger bender.

[illinoisredsox]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't do that.  I've preached patience with Duran, but I can easily see why fans wanted some change.  This is not like some of the posts where fans turn on players for a bad week, or a bad outing. or in the case of Fred, two bad ABs in the 1st ST game.

And I still like Duran, but there is almost no guarantee that he will continue his mini-streak, or conversely, go on an even bigger bender.

Agree.  He’ll hit a few homers within a 3-4 games and go back to trying to pull everything.  It’s been his pattern all year.

It’s hard to believe a guy with his speed has only got 13 doubles all year after being over 40 the past two seasons and over 30 in 2023 (in only 102 games).  Even Narvaez had 6 in less than 30 percent of the plate appearances

[moonslav59]

Well, I never gave Duran the Fred on Ceddane treatment, so there is that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have no idea the adversity a guy like Duran faces every single day of his career.

We only hear or read about the obvious issues like going public about his metal health or getting suspended for using bad language with a heckler.

But there have to be so many other instances. Same with Contreras -- who it was reported yesterday had an exchange with a fan for not running out a grounder at the end of the game.

On a New England talkshow a few fans sitting close to the action called in with more details -- one sent her phone video -- about what happened. Contreras was actually speaking to a loudmouth who was continually swearing at Red Sox players in the dugout. One of them was Duran, who to his credit chose not to confront the guy, who was with a kid. 

Contreras had security escort the blowhard to the exits, while fans in the section applauded. He was sticking up for his teammates.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

 

It’s hard to believe a guy with his speed has only got 13 doubles all year after being over 40 the past two seasons and over 30 in 2023 (in only 102 games).  

Yes, and even if you add 2B to 3B, we see this...

17 Duran (508 PAs)

35 Rafaela (518)

31 Abreu (545)

23 Monasterio (290)

23 Durbin (462)

23 Willson (483)

22 Mayer+Seigler (386)

19 Story+Sogard+IKF (449)

17 Gasper+Anthony+Romy+Cheng (382)

17 Yoshida (297)

16 Wong+Narvaez (391)

Counting HRs, nobody with more than 230 PAs has a lower XB%:

10.1 Contreras

10.0 Monasterio

9.9 Rafaela

9.7 Abreu

7.6 Durbin

7.4 Yosida

6.7 Duran

Players over 150 PAs and under 230:

9.5 Seiler

7.2 Wong

5.7 Story

4.6 Narvaez

SLG% probably captures this point made best:

.541 Contreras

.474 Abreu

.462 Rafaela

.419 Monasterio

.399 to .403 Seigler, Durbin & Yoshida

.371-.383 Wong, Sogard & Gasper

.361-.365 Duarn & IKF

SLG% does not tell everything. Someone with Duran's speed could more than make up for the loss of power by getting on base, but....

OBP:

.396 Willson

.377 Sogard

.354 Roman 

.347 Masa

.344 IKF

.341 Abreu

.332 Wong

.324 Durbin

.318-.322 Rafaela, Seigler, Gasper, Cheng & Monasterio

.282-.286 Mayer & Eaton 

.267 Duran

.260-.264 Romy & Narvaez

.244 Story

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope to God, posters razz me for years and years about how I have treated Duran over the last few months, and even years.

 

If no one else will, I’ll do it.  Regardless of whether or not Duran turns it around completely and regardless of the fact that I’ve been harder on Duran, which I plan on denying layer…

[JoeBrady]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

which I plan on denying layer…

I thought 'denying it later' was part of the TOS on this site?

[Bellhorn04]

43 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We have no idea the adversity a guy like Duran faces every single day of his career.

We only hear or read about the obvious issues like going public about his metal health or getting suspended for using bad language with a heckler.

But there have to be so many other instances. Same with Contreras -- who it was reported yesterday had an exchange with a fan for not running out a grounder at the end of the game.

On a New England talkshow a few fans sitting close to the action called in with more details -- one sent her phone video -- about what happened. Contreras was actually speaking to a loudmouth who was continually swearing at Red Sox players in the dugout. One of them was Duran, who to his credit chose not to confront the guy, who was with a kid. 

Contreras had security escort the blowhard to the exits, while fans in the section applauded. He was sticking up for his teammates.

Great post, thanks.

[Bellhorn04]

It's notable that the team stuck with him so long, just kept plugging him in the lineup.  They obviously figured he would turn it around.  Makes me think it's a well managed team.

[JoeBrady]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's notable that the team stuck with him so long, just kept plugging him in the lineup.  They obviously figured he would turn it around.  Makes me think it's a well managed team.

Duran is tougher than most to figure out, but his history makes him easy to start.  Frustrating, sure, but his downside is probably league-average.  While his upside is near AS.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Duran is tougher than most to figure out, but his history makes him easy to start.  Frustrating, sure, but his downside is probably league-average.  While his upside is near AS.

I think a 1400+ recent sample size makes the hope he can near his upside potential hard to fathom.

His 650+ recent sample size is frightening. He's days away from turning 30, and while many players do well from 30-33 or more, many do not.

I don't think it's "easy to start" him, except for his recent month of decent batting. The easiest part about starting him is that we have no other LHB option in LF. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of Duran earning a FT or platoon role, but it is what it is.

I'd keep playing him, for now, but I'd sit hi vs all or most LH'd SP'ers, then PH him later in the game.

Duran is at .654 in his last 365 days, including this recent warm stretch.

.215 BA (.268 BAbip)

.279 OBO

.375 SLG

179K- 47 BB (30 HBP)

22 SB- 5 CS

9 SH+SF

21 GDP

Looking at just this, he looks like a bench guy.

He's ,570 v LHPs after batting .600 vs them in 2025. He should be platooned, at best. He should bat 8th or 9th vs RHPs.

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I thought 'denying it later' was part of the TOS on this site?

I cannot confirm that, but I can deny it later…

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I hope to God, posters razz me for years and years about how I have treated Duran over the last few months, and even years.

We really need someone to step up and do significantly better than the start of their season.

Maybe it's an IL player coming back, but I've all but given up hope on that. 

Abreu as stepped up. Durbin stepped up. Rafaela & Willson have been steady all season long, but one more guy could make all the difference in the world.

Speaking of the IL, would this team listed below be a .500 team if all 100% healthy?

IL and AAA depth

Rotation: Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo (Valera)

Pen: Whitlock, Slaten, Kelly 

C: Delay/Baez/Montero (coulda been Rogers)

1B: Romy/Casas

2B: Story/Romy

SS: Arias/Story

3B: IKF/Romero

LF: Mead/Campbell

CF: Anthony/Eaton

RF: Campbell/Anthony

DH: Yoshida/Campbell

That's a pretty decent team, to me.

i like it except DH. i want an absolute masher in that position. and Masa is the complete opposite of that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Great post, thanks.

I like seeing many perspectives.

When I typed about Duran's metal health, I must have meant the sharpness of his spikes, which produced an increase in stolen bases the past month, and last night carried him counterclockwise to an easy triple.

[SoxDiehard]

It’s really good to see so many people coming around and support of Duran. The immense pressure that some terrible fans have put on him, in the way that he has withstood it and does his best. Every night is more than admirable. Thank you to this group of posts for saying the right things and supporting him. He does have the skills to be a guy who can carry a team.

[jad]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We have no idea the adversity a guy like Duran faces every single day of his career.

We only hear or read about the obvious issues like going public about his metal health or getting suspended for using bad language with a heckler.

But there have to be so many other instances. Same with Contreras -- who it was reported yesterday had an exchange with a fan for not running out a grounder at the end of the game.

On a New England talkshow a few fans sitting close to the action called in with more details -- one sent her phone video -- about what happened. Contreras was actually speaking to a loudmouth who was continually swearing at Red Sox players in the dugout. One of them was Duran, who to his credit chose not to confront the guy, who was with a kid. 

Contreras had security escort the blowhard to the exits, while fans in the section applauded. He was sticking up for his teammates.

Belligerent, loud-mouthed fans are so annoying and such a bore.  I won't go to the SeaDogs ("baseball the way it should be") anymore, bec. of a drunken, unmolested fan with his pissed off wife, and two soon to be f'ed up 7 and 8 year old kids, with a steady stream of drunken and moronic, infantile 'abuse' of an umpire.  I can't imagine what kind of pathetic lives folks have who get off on loudly abusing athletes.   Do they stand up in movies and shout "That line sucked!"

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, SoxDiehard said:

It’s really good to see so many people coming around and support of Duran. The immense pressure that some terrible fans have put on him, in the way that he has withstood it and does his best. Every night is more than admirable. Thank you to this group of posts for saying the right things and supporting him. He does have the skills to be a guy who can carry a team.

 Now, I'm feeling like turning back against Duran,

(Just kidding.)

[Alex Mayes]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't do that.  I've preached patience with Duran, but I can easily see why fans wanted some change.  This is not like some of the posts where fans turn on players for a bad week, or a bad outing. or in the case of Fred, two bad ABs in the 1st ST game.

And I still like Duran, but there is almost no guarantee that he will continue his mini-streak, or conversely, go on an even bigger bender.

I'm actually expecting him to come crashing back to earth sooner than later and, ultimately, be moved to the bench once Anthony is back.

[Alex Mayes]

19 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

Agree.  He’ll hit a few homers within a 3-4 games and go back to trying to pull everything.  It’s been his pattern all year.

It’s hard to believe a guy with his speed has only got 13 doubles all year after being over 40 the past two seasons and over 30 in 2023 (in only 102 games).  Even Narvaez had 6 in less than 30 percent of the plate appearances

Unfortunately this is correct. My hope is he can adapt to the bench/rotating DH spot better than he did earlier in the year once Anthony is back and that helps boost his trade value over the offseason. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Alex Mayes said:

I'm actually expecting him to come crashing back to earth sooner than later and, ultimately, be moved to the bench once Anthony is back.

With Yoshida injured it becomes less likely that Duran gets benched…

[Alex Mayes]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

With Yoshida injured it becomes less likely that Duran gets benched…

Bench/rotating DH I should have said. I expect Anthony to be given the Adley treatment once he’s back. Two games on, one game off. Duran likely gets the start on those off days, unless it’s a lefty starter then Jones should get that look. 

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Alex Mayes said:

Bench/rotating DH I should have said. I expect Anthony to be given the Adley treatment once he’s back. Two games on, one game off. Duran likely gets the start on those off days, unless it’s a lefty starter then Jones should get that look. 

 
Since Anthony is getting activated in September, he could be platooned with Jones at DH while White plays LF vs LHP in a platoon with Duran…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

 
Since Anthony is getting activated in September, he could be platooned with Jones at DH while White plays LF vs LHP in a platoon with Duran…

I'm thinking the righty DH will be Mona since Tracy said the other day he's staying in the batting order somewhere when Story comes back.

And I doubt that means moving over to second base, because Sogard is Chad's man -- and (every day more) fans' man.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm thinking the righty DH will be Mona since Tracy said the other day he's staying in the batting order somewhere when Story comes back.

And I doubt that means moving over to second base, because Sogard is Chad's man -- and (every day more) fans' man.

Possible as well.

Without Yoshida and Anthony, the DH position is getting rather tenuous.  Gasper isn’t going to be the answer forever…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Possible as well.

Without Yoshida and Anthony, the DH position is getting rather tenuous.  Gasper isn’t going to be the answer forever…

Mickey and Tony Sigs may be demoted when Ant, Story and IKF return (one of those three can be added when rosters expand Sept. 1). 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Mickey and Tony Sigs may be demoted when Ant, Story and IKF return (one of those three can be added when rosters expand Sept. 1). 

And if Mead comes back?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

And if Mead comes back?

A good problem to have, because it may mean the Sox have advanced past the first round in October.

If Mead returns and is deemed ready to rock, we may have to say goodbye to Jahmai. Mead's role would almost certainly be as a righty DH or PH, as it's hard to imagine him supplanting anyone at 2B and providing playoff defense...

... even before he broke his glove-hand/wrist, he was a negative-dWAR position player.

But upgrading the batting order with a guy who was on a 30-home run pace could be like when the 2016 Cubs suddenly got Schwarber back in time to win the World Series.

[Alex Mayes]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Possible as well.

Without Yoshida and Anthony, the DH position is getting rather tenuous.  Gasper isn’t going to be the answer forever…

Get Mickey off this team as quickly as possible. I’m over the Gasper experience, haha.