A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bragging about being right on 2 out of a 100 positions is a victory lap better left uncelebrated.

Not bragging at all. Common sense , and stats tell the story. CON man has 199 HR in 11 seasons while Alonso has 307 HR in 8 seasons. CON man has 629 RBI in 11 seasons while Alonso has 825 RBI in 8 seasons. It’s not even close who’s a BETTER run producer. Play 30 more games wouldn’t make up the difference this year, or any other year. You guys can have the CON Man, but I’ll take Alonso.🙈

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Not bragging at all. Common sense , and stats tell the story. CON man has 199 HR in 11 seasons while Alonso has 307 HR in 8 seasons. CON man has 629 RBI in 11 seasons while Alonso has 825 RBI in 8 seasons. It’s not even close who’s a BETTER run producer. Play 30 more games wouldn’t make up the difference this year, or any other year. You guys can have the CON Man, but I’ll take Alonso.🙈

Paying for Alonso would have meant no Suarez.

Yes, it was bragging about the only two things you got right. Plus, just because you were right that Alonso would have more HRs and RBI, does not mean you were right that he was the better choice over Suarez.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Paying for Alonso would have meant no Suarez.

Yes, it was bragging about the only two things you got right. Plus, just because you were right that Alonso would have more HRs and RBI, does not mean you were right that he was the better choice over Suarez.

I said before the last offseason started I would have signed both Alonso, and Flintstone, and I still stick by that today. Right now also I would rather have Alonso’s, Bregman’s, or a healthy Raffy’s bat going into New York for the postseason than what they have now.🤔

[JAG]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Paying for Alonso would have meant no Suarez.

Yes, it was bragging about the only two things you got right. Plus, just because you were right that Alonso would have more HRs and RBI, does not mean you were right that he was the better choice over Suarez.

I would have preferred signing Alonso over Suarez looking back on the season. Suarez was not dependable at all. Going into New York for the wild card, I would rather have Alonso over Suarez. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I said before the last offseason started I would have signed both Alonso, and Flintstone, and I still stick by that today. Right now also I would rather have Alonso’s, Bregman’s, or a healthy Raffy’s bat going into New York for the postseason than what they have now.🤔

Too funny.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JAG said:

I would have preferred signing Alonso over Suarez looking back on the season. Suarez was not dependable at all. Going into New York for the wild card, I would rather have Alonso over Suarez. 

It would actually be Suarez plus more, because Alson got more money than Suarez.

Had we traded Duran to make room for Alonso, I'd have been fine with that, but we'd be worried about a Bennett/Bello game 3 situation, too, and who takes all those regular season starts by Suarez?

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, JAG said:

I would have preferred signing Alonso over Suarez looking back on the season. Suarez was not dependable at all. Going into New York for the wild card, I would rather have Alonso over Suarez. 

$130M got you 8 wins, and a bunch of 5 innings starts, so I agree on Alonso. Suarez is here now though, so hopefully he can earn some of that contract in the postseason.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Final stats. HR   RBI   AVG

CON man     27    81    275

Alonso.         43   113    267

 

Raffy.            37    98     258

Bregman      28    93.     265

DUBin.           13     64.     248

I said months ago Alonso would end up with more Homers, and RBI than the Con Man, and that was an easy call to make.

Finally little Anthony everyone’s face of the franchise 5-15-.245.🤔

Alonso + Devers = 8.5 bWAR

Contreras + Durbin = 9.0 bWAR, plus $45M to spend on Gray + Suarez.

I agree, great moves, but is it enough to make Breslow Executive of the Year?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Alonso + Devers = 8.5 bWAR

Contreras + Durbin = 9.0 bWAR, plus $45M to spend on Gray + Suarez.

I agree, great moves, but is it enough to make Breslow Executive of the Year?

Seriously? His team won less games than last season and didn't improve their postseason chances since they're in exactly the same house of horrors they were in a year ago.

Point to changes that Brez made -- firing a manager, trading for good players -- but then also admit he extended that manager he fired, and replaced good players he lost with other good players... to basically stay the same in record and standing.

And if anyone cites their great summer, then you can't ignore their abysmal utter failure of a spring -- both with rosters he built.

Now let's see whether they stagnate or actually improve in the Bronx vs. heavy favorites. NY's pitching vs. Boston's... batting out of disorder. Two, maybe three games -- where the Yankees will always get their last ups. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

$130M got you 8 wins, and a bunch of 5 innings starts, so I agree on Alonso. Suarez is here now though, so hopefully he can earn some of that contract in the postseason.

Wins are teams stats, but even so, the Sox were 17-11 in his starts.

We miss the playoffs, if Burgos and Paez types went 10-18.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Seriously? His team won less games than last season and didn't improve their postseason chances since they're in exactly the same house of horrors they were in a year ago.

Point to changes that Brez made -- firing a manager, trading for good players -- but then also admit he extended that manager he fired, and replaced good players he lost with other good players... to basically stay the same in record and standing.

And if anyone cites their great summer, then you can't ignore their abysmal utter failure of a spring -- both with rosters he built.

Now let's see whether they stagnate or actually improve in the Bronx vs. heavy favorites. NY's pitching vs. Boston's... batting out of disorder. Two, maybe three games -- where the Yankees will always get their last ups. 

He thinks he's serious 

[notin]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

I said before the last offseason started I would have signed both Alonso, and Flintstone, and I still stick by that today. Right now also I would rather have Alonso’s, Bregman’s, or a healthy Raffy’s bat going into New York for the postseason than what they have now.🤔

Just Alonso and Schwarber? No Tucker, Bichette and Cease?  

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Seriously? His team won less games than last season and didn't improve their postseason chances since they're in exactly the same house of horrors they were in a year ago.

Point to changes that Brez made -- firing a manager, trading for good players -- but then also admit he extended that manager he fired, and replaced good players he lost with other good players... to basically stay the same in record and standing.

And if anyone cites their great summer, then you can't ignore their abysmal utter failure of a spring -- both with rosters he built.

Now let's see whether they stagnate or actually improve in the Bronx vs. heavy favorites. NY's pitching vs. Boston's... batting out of disorder. Two, maybe three games -- where the Yankees will always get their last ups. 

Well, record was not as good.  But last year was carried by a pitcher that went 18-5 2.59 6.0 bWAR.

If you had Alonso and Bregman on this team (and obviously no Suarez, Durbin) and you knew on April 25th, Crochet was done for the year, where would you put the Sox chances of seeing the postseason?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Well, record was not as good.  But last year was carried by a pitcher that went 18-5 2.59 6.0 bWAR.

If you had Alonso and Bregman on this team (and obviously no Suarez, Durbin) and you knew on April 25th, Crochet was done for the year, where would you put the Sox chances of seeing the postseason?

Those stats aren't black and white; they're Gray: 18-5, 2.72, 4.3. 

Also with Crochet, don't forget Bello done starting for nearly the year (even though most weren't counting on him after the playoffs). To me, even though Suarez made the All-Star team and Gray didn't, I don't think Ranger was the link that pushed the Sox into the playoffs.

I know they had a good record in Suarez starts, but the rotation was boosted immensely by Tolle and nearly 100 IP by Early -- two guys a lot of us expected to play big roles since ST...

... and the forgotten link, the best starter in the best streak. Jake Bennett's June/June ERA in 9 starts: 2.43. 

Oviedo was supposed to be Breslow's key subtle move, but it turned out Bennett.

[drewski6]

Im holding out my opinion on Breslows season because the most important games of the year are still to play.

To me, if we cant score and lose, then he took a team that struggled to hit was carried by the rotation to the playoffs, and then couldnt hit well enough in the playoffs to get out of the first round (2025) and turned them into a team that struggled to hit, was carried by the rotation to the playoffs, and couldnt hit well enough in the playoffs to get out of the first round (2026).

I understand that Joe Brady wants to annoint him GM of the decade and is already talking about his pitcher heavy wishlist this offseason - but we dont throw parades for teams that lose in the first round.  And sure, we made it, and Im happy to have playoff baseball.  But we wouldnt have made it if we were NL. 

It looks to me like we are an above average team very strong on pitching, but equally weak on the runs created side.  Final tally is in, and we were 23 out of 30 in runs scored.

[notin]

46 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Those stats aren't black and white; they're Gray: 18-5, 2.72, 4.3. 

Also with Crochet, don't forget Bello done starting for nearly the year (even though most weren't counting on him after the playoffs). To me, even though Suarez made the All-Star team and Gray didn't, I don't think Ranger was the link that pushed the Sox into the playoffs.

I know they had a good record in Suarez starts, but the rotation was boosted immensely by Tolle and nearly 100 IP by Early -- two guys a lot of us expected to play big roles since ST...

... and the forgotten link, the best starter in the best streak. Jake Bennett's June/June ERA in 9 starts: 2.43. 

Oviedo was supposed to be Breslow's key subtle move, but it turned out Bennett.

But the bottom line is they built a pitching-defense team and lost their ace.  The counter argument really isn’t “but Gray was just as good.”  Gray was acquired to pitch alongside Crochet, not to be the Reserve Ace in case Crochet broke down.  

The Sox built a pitching/defense team, lost their ace, and still made the postseason.  And people are still 1) completely ignoring that and 2) upset about the Sox not making some acquisition last December a full 87 wins ago because it didn’t meet their single-minded vision on the only way to build a team…

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

But the bottom line is they built a pitching-defense team and lost their ace.  The counter argument really isn’t “but Gray was just as good.”  Gray was acquired to pitch alongside Crochet, not to be the Reserve Ace in case Crochet broke down.  

The Sox built a pitching/defense team, lost their ace, and still made the postseason.  And people are still 1) completely ignoring that and 2) upset about the Sox not making some acquisition last December a full 87 wins ago because it didn’t meet their single-minded vision on the only way to build a team…

No we are upset at the posters going to lengths to high five themselves after saying stuff like we had one of the best offseasons all time last year.  We are set up on the positional side better than any team in history.  I think our top 3 offseason list should be pitching, pitching , pitching.

Lets see if we score in NY is all Im saying.

[moonslav59]

Sox Record in GS by...

21-8 Gray

17-11 Suarez

15-11 Tolle

10-9 Bennett

6-7 Sandoval

11 minutes ago, notin said:

But the bottom line is they built a pitching-defense team and lost their ace.  The counter argument really isn’t “but Gray was just as good.”  Gray was acquired to pitch alongside Crochet, not to be the Reserve Ace in case Crochet broke down.  

The Sox built a pitching/defense team, lost their ace, and still made the postseason.  And people are still 1) completely ignoring that and 2) upset about the Sox not making some acquisition last December a full 87 wins ago because it didn’t meet their single-minded vision on the only way to build a team…

As you've pointed out, signing a DH, after getting Contreras was a nonstarter, as long as we still had Duran, Anthony and Yoshida on the roster.

The real choice, IMO was this...

Suarez, IKF, Durbin, Monasterio & Seigler

vs

Bregman, Harrison, Drohan & DHam

(Bregman Lux tax money= Suarez + IKF)

 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No we are upset at the posters going to lengths to high five themselves after saying stuff like we had one of the best offseasons all time last year.  We are set up on the positional side better than any team in history.  I think our top 3 offseason list should be pitching, pitching , pitching.

Lets see if we score in NY is all Im saying.

I'm curious on your thoguths: how does this Pitching, pitching, pitching winter line up in Sox history?

Gray

Suarez

Bennett

Guerrero, Gamboa, Watson, Coulombe (MIller in summer)

2024-2025

Crochet, Buehler, Sandoval, Chapman, Newcomb (Matz & May in summer) (Tolle drafted in 2024)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Lets see if we score in NY is all Im saying.

I surmise you echo what a lot of Red Sox fans hear in their heads drumming from one eardrum to the other (and it's getting louder, like Keith Moon vs. John Bonham in heaven solo jams).

I never care about statistical rankings that show how normal an offense is in an era where it's normal not to hit. It doesn't matter how much you score if you can't score when it matters.

Does everyone here know that Ceddanne Rafaela -- forum punching bag in the post-JBJ years -- just finished an All-Star season as one of the TOP TEN BATTERS IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE?

Rafaela was 6th in the AL for the batting crown... with an average of .283. For perspective, in 1968 -- the Year of the Pitcher when Yaz was the only .300 hitter and won the batting title at .301, an outfielder for the Twins named Ted Uhlaender finished 5th at .283.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I surmise you echo what a lot of Red Sox fans hear in their heads drumming from one eardrum to the other (and it's getting louder, like Keith Moon vs. John Bonham in heaven solo jams).

Bonham was probably the best drummer ever, but Moon gets under my skin with the off-beat rumblings.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bonham was probably the best drummer ever, but Moon gets under my skin with the off-beat rumblings.

But Ringo had Moon teach Zak Starkey how to play drums, so your namesake played it forward.

[NHNative]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bonham was probably the best drummer ever, but Moon gets under my skin with the off-beat rumblings.

Ginger Baker? Buddy Rich?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But Ringo had Moon teach Zak Starkey how to play drums, so your namesake played it forward.

Moon's my fave, and it's how I came up with moon-slav.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, NHNative said:

Ginger Baker? Buddy Rich?

Great drummers, but Bonham's my choice as the best technical and powerful drummer.

I always said of Moon, "He plays the drums like he's the lead guitarist." 

It's what made the Who so great- 4 guys all wanting to be the lead.

[moonslav59]

Since 2022 best current Sox OPS vs RHP (300+ PAs unless noted)

(Note: White hit .906 v R in 37 PAs, this year)

.878 Contreras (a RHB! w BOS only)

.865 Anthony

.832 Gasper (217) .902 '25-'26

.798 Duran (.744 '25-'26)

.796 Casas (almost as many PAs as Contreras+Anthony)

.794 Abreu (.767 '25-'26)

.784 Yoshida (.739 '25-'26)

.784 Seigler (131 w BOS only)

.775 AR (86 w BOS only)

.716 Durbin (BOS only/reverse splits and .744 '25-'26)

.714 Rafaela (reverse splits and .731 '25-'26)

.694 Story (.707 '25-'26)

.674 Wong (.572 '25-'26)

.658 Campbell (189)

.656 Sogard

.637 Romy (BOS only) but .690  '25-'26

.602 Monasterio (217 BOS only)

_______________________________

vs LHPs (120+ PAs unless noted)

1.058 Jones (68 BOS only)

.966 Contreras (BOS)

.892 Romy (BOS) .901 '25-'26

.814 Casas (reverse splits)

.800 Sogard (.828 '25-'26)

.772 Monasterio (BOS)

.746 Abreu (.767 '25-'26)

.719 Story (.704 '25-'26)

.696 Durbin (BOS)

.695 Rafaela (.743 '25-'26)

.686 Anthony

.675 Campball (74)

.674 Wong (.572 '25-'26)

.662 Yoshida (should not start v L and .634 '25-'26)

.625 Duran (should not start v L and .603 '25-'26))