A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Letting Devers and Bregman go was dumb. The Adley trade has not worked out so far. 

Adley is not a #3 hitter, even as they try to contrive a #3 hitter.

Anthony could be a #3 hitter -- if they can only find anyone in the organization to consistently get on base in front of him. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Letting Devers and Bregman go was dumb.  

Uh no.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Adley is not a #3 hitter, even as they try to contrive a #3 hitter.

Anthony could be a #3 hitter -- if they can only find anyone in the organization to consistently get on base in front of him. 

Abreu Should be the #5, but 3 is okay.

I'm not sure AR should be the #5, either, but who else?

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has determined we lost the most fWAR due to injuries in MLB, but here we still are. the third best team in the AL. It's not like we had the easiest schedule either.

The rotation took a big hit, even if we don't count Houck, who was known to be out for all of 2026.

Crochet, Crawford, Oviedo and then Early all went down before Sandoval came back. Bello didn't get injured, but he forced more rotation depth needed due to his yips.

The rest of the major injuries seemed to affect 3 positions way more than others: SS, 2B and DH.

DH: We started the season with Anthony & Duran in sort of shared LF/DH roles with Yoshida getting a few sniffs here and there. It didn't take long (5 weeks or so) for Anthony to go on the IL. Yoshida pretty much played FT with Gasper and a few others like Jones & Romy starting once in a while. We picked up White to play OF a little bit. When Yoshida went down, it became pretty much Gasper & Jones.

SS: Story was handed the FT job after having led the team in HRs, RBI and SB, last year. By mid-May he was out and Monasterio/Mayer took over. Then, Mayer got hurt, and it was pretty much all Monasterio and Cheng for a while. Story came back a few weeks back and has been the SS pretty much FT

2B: The season started with Mayer and IKF sharing the position. Once mayer began playing SS, we saw IKF and Sogard at 2B a lot. IKF got hurt. Our big winning stretch began when Seigler started playing 2B a lot. For some reason, we moved towards Sogard at 2B. Once IKF returned, it's been Sogard-IKF at 2B.

Check out the GS numbers:

2B- 40 Seigler, 39 Mayer, 35 Sogard, 30 IKF (That's not easy to do: 4 guys at 30+) Monasterio started 9 at 2B, Romy 5 and Mead that one game.

SS- 60 Story, 51 Monasterio, 20 Mayer, 13 Cheng, 11 IKF, 4 Sogard (5 guys with 11+)

DH- 65 Yoshida, 33 Gasper, 25 Jones, 21 Anthony, 12 Monasterio

8 Duran & Romy, 4 Eaton, 3 Wong & Abreu, 2 Story & Seigler and 1 by White, Contreras, Sogard, AR and Narvaez

[vegasbob]

Other than, IMO,  2027 will be a short season, Boston should be loaded on the mound and better in the lineup.

Depends somewhat on Story , Yoshida and Duran's presence or absence.  

A shorter season (130-110) games could help the Sox .

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If the playoffs are totally random, the Dodgers shouldn't have won 3 of the last 6.

There is definitely some randomness in the playoffs because of the short series.

But it's by no means a pure randomness.

Random, but not absolutely random.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Other than, IMO,  2027 will be a short season, Boston should be loaded on the mound and better in the lineup.

Depends somewhat on Story , Yoshida and Duran's presence or absence.  

A shorter season (130-110) games could help the Sox .

I'm super pumped about '27.

The big loss could be Gray, but I think he may be back.

Nick Martinez might be the second choice, as he won't get a long deal.

Morejon would be a fantastic add to the pen, and if we got 2 of these 3 pitchers, I'd be fine with the Offense as is. Story, Duran and Yoshida would be fine as bench/depth pieces, but I doubt we'll view them that way. If we don't trade Story or Yoshida, I'm almost certain Duran will be gone. Somehow. Someway.

I think Brez makes a few minor to moderate trades, this winter. He always does. Even if we somehow trade Story, I think we'll trade some middle IF depth too. (IKF is a FA.)

Arias, Story, Mead

Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio

Romy, Cheng, Romero/Rodgers.

I also think Brez would be okay with the OF depth of Jones/White and maybe Yoshida/Campbell/Eaton/Ward, assuming we trade Duran.

We need some SP'er depth and some pen help, so maybe we trade for pitching. The return or replacement of Gray could be the key, and of course how Crochet does could be the biggest feature of the 2027 staff, but here is a look at the foundation. (Note some pitching depth is listed as starters and relievers.)

SP: Crochet (Gray) Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Oviedo, Houck, Crawford

Paez/Holobetz/Wehunt/Ziehl/Mullins

RP:  Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Slaten, Guerrero, Weissert, Moran, Gamboa, Kelly, Burgos, Bastardo, Olds, Samaniego, Rivera

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A team in a month-long scoring slump is about to go to battle in the playoffs without both its best hitter and its second-half home run hero vs. a host with the best ERA and lowest runs allowed per game in baseball.

It's a grim outlook, but luckily they boast the second-best pitching staff in the league -- so they do have a chance.

If they're really trying to field a line-up that gives them the best shot at outscoring opponents, do they:

A) bring up a journeyman replacement player

B) activate a trade acquisition who hasn't faced live pitching since July 27

C) call up their Minor League Offensive Player of the Year, the third-ranked prospect in all of baseball.

What makes the most sense if they're really trying to win?

 

[NHNative]

25 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A team in a month-long scoring slump is about to go to battle in the playoffs without both its best hitter and its second-half home run hero vs. a host with the best ERA and lowest runs allowed per game in baseball.

It's a grim outlook, but luckily they boast the second-best pitching staff in the league -- so they do have a chance.

If they're really trying to field a line-up that gives them the best shot at outscoring opponents, do they:

A) bring up a journeyman replacement player

B) activate a trade acquisition who hasn't faced live pitching since July 27

C) call up their Minor League Offensive Player of the Year, the third-ranked prospect in all of baseball.

What makes the most sense if they're really trying to win?

 

C. Take a chance.

[notin]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A team in a month-long scoring slump is about to go to battle in the playoffs without both its best hitter and its second-half home run hero vs. a host with the best ERA and lowest runs allowed per game in baseball.

It's a grim outlook, but luckily they boast the second-best pitching staff in the league -- so they do have a chance.

If they're really trying to field a line-up that gives them the best shot at outscoring opponents, do they:

A) bring up a journeyman replacement player

B) activate a trade acquisition who hasn't faced live pitching since July 27

C) call up their Minor League Offensive Player of the Year, the third-ranked prospect in all of baseball.

What makes the most sense if they're really trying to win?

 

Minor League Offensive Player of the Year and third-ranked prospect?  Sounds like Kristian Campbell.

Go with the known commodity here.  The notion that a prospect that has never faced MLB pitching and gets to debut against said second best staff in order to suddenly save their season is actually even more ridiculous than it sounds…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, NHNative said:

C. Take a chance.

Would you use a Financial Advisor who doled out advice like that?

”Yes you have considerable debt and a child in college.  We could use some of these investments and take out a short term loan.  Or, and hear me out here - Lotto!!  Solves EVERYTHING!”

[NHNative]

I am debt free and have never used an advisor...taking chances are backed up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Minor League Offensive Player of the Year and third-ranked prospect?  Sounds like Kristian Campbell.

Go with the known commodity here.  The notion that a prospect that has never faced MLB pitching and gets to debut against said second best staff in order to suddenly save their season is actually even more ridiculous than it sounds…

Were six other MLB clubs ridiculous to call up prospects to make their MLB debut in the postseason?

Chase DeLauter, Ryan Weathers, Shane McClanahan, Alex Kiriloff, Adalberto Mondesi, Mark Kigor...

... some of them weren't even ruined for life!

[NHNative]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Were six other MLB clubs ridiculous to call up prospects to make their MLB debut in the postseason?

Chase DeLauter, Ryan Weathers, Shane McClanahan, Alex Kiriloff, Adalberto Mondesi, Mark Kigor...

... some of them weren't even ruined for life!

This.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, NHNative said:

This.

A Gasper replacement for the playoffs is worth discussing on talksox.

Even though we all know it's going to be Romy -- who bats righty, and doesn't replace Mickey's lefty pop (nor does Arias or Campbell).

Should it be Woo HR leader Allan Castro (15 bombs LHH)... or Mikey Romero (12 LHH) or Tyler McDonough, 20 dingers at two levels (switch-hitting; no info on how many LHH)?

[NHNative]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A Gasper replacement for the playoffs is worth discussing on talksox.

Even though we all know it's going to be Romy -- who bats righty, and doesn't replace Mickey's lefty pop (nor does Arias or Campbell).

Should it be Woo HR leader Allan Castro (15 bombs LHH)... or Mikey Romero (12 LHH) or Tyler McDonough, 20 dingers at two levels (switch-hitting; no info on how many LHH)?

I don't really know. What I do know is he isn't hitting and no tellin how bad he is injured---yet. Unless you have heard.

[moonslav59]

Are we certain Contreras won't play in NYC?

Gasper will not come back, IMO. His injury is too severe.

Replacement options are Campbell or Romy. (Arias might help, but keeping him off the 40 makes sense, since he's not clearly the best option.)

It will be extremely difficult to score enough runs without Contreras, but I'd still think we have a good enough team to win. I wouldn't bet on it, but I don't bet anymore, so that's not saying much.

We have very good pitching and defense. We've gotten where we are today in large part on the back of our bench. They've come through time and time again- sometimes just for short spurts, but nevertheless, they did, and then the next guy did, and the next. None of these guys were viewed as starters or even on the 26, 40 or even the team, at various points last winter:

Rutschman, Monasterio, Sogard, Seigler, Cheng, Jones, White and these pitchers:

Tolle, Bennett (Early>Sandoval) Miller, Guerrero, Gamboa, Olds, Rivera, Burgos, Paez, Uberstine & Samaniego.

We have some guys back from injury (Anthony, Story, Rafaela and others,) back from the yips (Bello) and back for second and third looks (a whole bunch of players perhaps led by Sogard.) 

We can do this!

 

 

[moonslav59]

Romy hit .371 in SEPT with WOO. He's killed lefties in the past, but we kinda need someone who kills righties. (Romy did okay vs RHPs, last season.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Were six other MLB clubs ridiculous to call up prospects to make their MLB debut in the postseason?

Chase DeLauter, Ryan Weathers, Shane McClanahan, Alex Kiriloff, Adalberto Mondesi, Mark Kigor...

... some of them weren't even ruined for life!

And how did that pan out?  I didn’t make any comments about the impact on Arias, because anyone who comments on that either way is just speculating (except Arias himself).  Did any of those teams win?

Does Arias give the Sox their best chance to win?  Or is this along the lines of “I don’t like the known options, so the unknown has got to be better?”

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A Gasper replacement for the playoffs is worth discussing on talksox.

Even though we all know it's going to be Romy -- who bats righty, and doesn't replace Mickey's lefty pop (nor does Arias or Campbell).

Should it be Woo HR leader Allan Castro (15 bombs LHH)... or Mikey Romero (12 LHH) or Tyler McDonough, 20 dingers at two levels (switch-hitting; no info on how many LHH)?

This is a bigger deal, because myself (and probably several others) prefer it not be Duran.  Although we all know it will be…

[notin]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Are we certain Contreras won't play in NYC?

Gasper will not come back, IMO. His injury is too severe.

Replacement options are Campbell or Romy. (Arias might help, but keeping him off the 40 makes sense, since he's not clearly the best option.)

It will be extremely difficult to score enough runs without Contreras, but I'd still think we have a good enough team to win. I wouldn't bet on it, but I don't bet anymore, so that's not saying much.

We have very good pitching and defense. We've gotten where we are today in large part on the back of our bench. They've come through time and time again- sometimes just for short spurts, but nevertheless, they did, and then the next guy did, and the next. None of these guys were viewed as starters or even on the 26, 40 or even the team, at various points last winter:

Rutschman, Monasterio, Sogard, Seigler, Cheng, Jones, White and these pitchers:

Tolle, Bennett (Early>Sandoval) Miller, Guerrero, Gamboa, Olds, Rivera, Burgos, Paez, Uberstine & Samaniego.

We have some guys back from injury (Anthony, Story, Rafaela and others,) back from the yips (Bello) and back for second and third looks (a whole bunch of players perhaps led by Sogard.) 

We can do this!

 

 

Isn’t Campbell injured?

Whats Yoshida’s status?

[moonslav59]

The fWAR Ranking should not change much, so here is how the Sox lined up, this year:

4.1 Contreras -129 games (4.9 per 150)

4.1 Tolle -26 GS (5.0 per 32 GS)

4.0 Rafaela- 137 (4.6)

3.8 Suarez- 28 GS (4.3)

3.4 Gray-29 GS (3.7)

3.2 Abreu- 156 (3.2)

3.0 Durbin- 152 (3.0)

2.3 Bennett- 20 GS (3.6)

2.0 Whitlock- 52 IP (2.1 per 60 IP)

1.6 Chapman -52 IP (1.7)

1.2 Sogard- 65 (2.7)

1.1 Sandoval -14 GS (2.5)

1.0 IKF- 66 (2.3)

1.0 Guerrero -40 IP (1.5)

1.0 Bello- 11 GS (1.2 adjusted to RP)

0.9 Anthony 54 (2.8)

0.9 Gasper 67 (2.5)

0.7 Jones 36 (2.9)

0.5 Rutschman 31 (2.4)

0.5 Duran 150 (0.5)

0.4 Seigler 49 (1.2)

0.4 Yoshida 87 (0.7)

0.2 Story 63 (0.5)

0.2 Eaton 23 (1.3)

0.1 Cheng 14 (1.0)

0.1 White 27 (0.6)

___________________

Other batters:

0.0 Mead 1

-0.1 Mayer 70

-0.2 Wong 76

-0.2 Narvaez 62

-0.2 Romy 19

-0.5 Monasterio 106

__________________

Other Pitchers:

0.6 Early

0.6 Slaten

0.5 Gamboa

0.3 Crochet

0.3 Miller

0.3 Weissert

0.2 Samaniego & Burgos

0.1 Moran, Paez, Kelly, Olds

0.0 Watson, Rivera, Anderson

-0.1 Kahnle, Uberstine, La Sorsa, Coulombe

-0.2 Monasterio

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Isn’t Campbell injured?

Whats Yoshida’s status?

Not sure on KC. He did miss the last few games.

I heard Yoshida is out until 2027.

[notin]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Romy hit .371 in SEPT with WOO. He's killed lefties in the past, but we kinda need someone who kills righties. (Romy did okay vs RHPs, last season.)

Thinking the Gasper replacement likely comes from within, and while any replacement whose not an elite prospect with some sort of Worcester pedigree will be consudered trying to catch lightning in a bottle, in Gasper isn’t that exactly what they’ve replacing?   Assuming Contreras is out and Mead isn’t, we probably see

C: Rutschman

1b: Sogard

2b: Kiner-Falefa

3b: Durbin

SS: Story

LF: Anthony

CF:Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Mead

BN: Wong, Duran, Jones, Monasterio

Working in Jones vs LHP might be interesting.  Jones to DH, Mead to 1b? 

If Mead can’t go, not sure who next man up is.   I assume Jones and Duran platoon in LF (with Anthony to DH).  But who becomes that 4th bench bat?  The only healthy options on the 40 man are Eaton, Romy and Cheng.

So if no Mead - Eaton…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure on KC. He did miss the last few games.

I heard Yoshida is out until 2027.

The initial reports said he might be back for the postseason, but that probably relied on a few assumptions that didn’t pan out…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

This is a bigger deal, because myself (and probably several others) prefer it not be Duran.  Although we all know it will be…

I realize that all they're going to do with Gasper out is play Duran full-time. They may pinch-hit for him vs. late lefties, and Eaton plays outfield if the game is still going. 

If Willson is still out, Mona or Romy will play 1B.

Sorry, board. I really want it to be different than last October. But those are the same options (without Yoshida from the left side) -- exactly a year later -- returning to the scene of the crime.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I realize that all they're going to do with Gasper out is play Duran full-time. They may pinch-hit for him vs. late lefties, and Eaton plays outfield if the game is still going. 

If Willson is still out, Mona or Romy will play 1B.

Sorry, board. I really want it to be different than last October. But those are the same options (without Yoshida from the left side) -- exactly a year later -- returning to the scene of the crime.

Wasn’t replacing Kyle Hudson with Chad Epperson enough?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Thinking the Gasper replacement likely comes from within, and while any replacement whose not an elite prospect with some sort of Worcester pedigree will be consudered trying to catch lightning in a bottle, in Gasper isn’t that exactly what they’ve replacing?   Assuming Contreras is out and Mead isn’t, we probably see

C: Rutschman, Wong

1b: Sogard

2b: Kiner-Falefa

3b: Durbin

SS: Story

LF: Anthony

CF:Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Mead

BN: Wong, Duran, Jones, Monasterio

Working in Jones vs LHP might be interesting.  Jones to DH, Mead to 1b? 
 

The last report on Mead (9/22) he was advancing from hitting off a tee to BP. I think the odds for Contreras are higher.

I think KC is not ready. Nothing on Seigler since Sept 16th. White and Yoshida are done.

I see the NYC line-up as such:

vs RHP (Schlitter & Cole)

1. L Anthony DH

2. S Rutschman C

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Contreras 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Duran LF

7. R Durbin 3B

8. R Rafaela CF

9. R IKF 2B 

Bench: Wong, Sogard, Jones, Monasterio or Romy

vs LHP (Fried & Rodon)

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Rafaela CF

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Contreras 1B/DH

5. S Rutschman C

6. R Story SS

7. R Durbin 3B

8. R Sogard DH/1B

9. R Monasterio 2B/ Romy DH or 2B

Bench: Wong, Duran, IKF, Jones

 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I realize that all they're going to do with Gasper out is play Duran full-time. They may pinch-hit for him vs. late lefties, and Eaton plays outfield if the game is still going. 

If Willson is still out, Mona or Romy will play 1B.

Sogard could play 1B, too.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sogard could play 1B, too.

It seems to be Tracy’s preference.

 

And let’s face, there is a really good chance Romy has already played his last game for the Boston Red Sox…