A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Where you went off course, is when you defended being 12th in hitting and 4th in pitching.  Aim higher.

I'm not defending it.  I'm telling you what the numbers tell me.  The 12th/4th projection is a very solid number.  Of the 13 playoff contenders, only 4 teams have a lower number than the combined 16 (Mil, LAD, NYY, Atl).  The Cubs have a 16 and TB has a 17.  (All based on RS and RA).

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I just checked right now and the Red Sox are 22nd in MLB in runs scored, lol.  Not 12th.

Runs scored is a much more complicated calculus than OPS, so I use OPS for projections.  They should align, but occasionally diverge.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm not defending it.  I'm telling you what the numbers tell me.  The 12th/4th projection is a very solid number.  Of the 13 playoff contenders, only 4 teams have a lower number than the combined 16 (Mil, LAD, NYY, Atl).  The Cubs have a 16 and TB has a 17.  (All based on RS and RA).

You jumped for joy all off-season at the hitters we didnt sign and weirdly asked for more pitching when we went full pitching.  At one point , I wasnt sure you were serious.

And here we sit with a 20th ranked offense based on ...... runs scored.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I can find many examples where we sucked for a game or two or more vs crappy pitchers then beat up on a good or great one.

I've always cringed when we had to face a TBD pitched against us.  Usually someone I never heard of, and usually shuts us down.  For like 60 years now.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Runs scored is a much more complicated calculus than OPS, so I use OPS for projections.  They should align, but occasionally diverge.

OPS isnt what it use to be, but still a very good indicator.  Im not disputing that.  But right now , to act like our offense is or has been acceptable , is either misleading, homerism, or complacency.

To point out that we tried to fix it at the deadline but ran into some bad luck with Mead specifically is fair. But thats one guy.  Adley, I liked the acquisition at the time, but I really think that looking to improve your offense  as a whole from a catcher is dubious.  I liked the Adley and Mead acquisitions, however.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

I've always cringed when we had to face a TBD pitched against us.  Usually someone I never heard of, and usually shuts us down.  For like 60 years now.

This I can agree with.  It seems like the first 2 at-bats a hitter takes (in their career) against a pitcher with even an ounce of competence - makes that pitcher look like Maddux.

When I was a kid , I thought a cheat code was having guys make their MLB pitching debut in the post-season.  This year, I'll trust Gray, Tolle, and Ranger over Holobretz or whatever his name is.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Unfortunately, they also have one of the most impotent pitching staffs

Lot of injuries to the rotation.  The playoffs are still random, but they don't even have a #1 SP, and barely have any #2s.  They did a good job at the deadline adding warm bodies, but they have a tough row to hoe. 

[NHNative]

Its simple for me. We have all the talent we need to win the WS. The team just needs to play to their potential. A wee success and good attituude is contagious, just as the opposite is.

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

In todays MLB with the crazy spins, you gotta jump on the first thing straight. 

Yes, but with one caveat.  If you are facing a weak pitcher, you can be more patient, because they usually won't beat you.  And for a few hitters, the counts don't matter.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox offense in September looks exactly like the Sox offense in April.  Hot weather hitters only?  I don't know but the numbers are pretty grim.