Is this 2026 Red Sox team…CONTENDERS or PRETENDERS?

[southpaw777]

PRETENDERS

Currently there are 4 injured starters with no real time table on returns.
they have no clue who’s starting this weekend because Breslow traded away all our starting pitching depth. 
Tolle is over 80ip already and has never gone past 120ip.

our best hitter is going away for four games. 

We are in the easiest part of the schedule and the best team we played, the Yankees, had all their offense injured.

we need another big bat…so doesa LOT of teams.

we need bullpen help…so does a LOT of teams.

we obviously need some starting depth down the stretch.

we would have to empty the farm to be a real contender. 

when are all the starters coming back?

when are our young soft azz players going to start playing again?

We have a great starter and closer to trade. We also have some other pieces we could trade for a higher price.

Whitlock

Abreu

Contreras

 

i like these guys in Boston but if Breslow is overwhelmed, then you take the deal and you have all offseason until February to figure out 2027(?)…If done correctly, We could acquire the right players to either trade for the players we need this offseason, or keep and be legit contenders in 2027…or whenever we play again. 

[moonslav59]

The point about Tolle and IP also applies to Early and Bennett. BTW, Suarez has never gone more than 158 IP, and he's on pace for 175.

Gray & Chapman seem closer to 50 years old than 25. (Note: Chapman is, but Gray is not.)

Anthony & Crochet's returns seem eerily like Hendriks, Crawford and Casas.

I'm still leaning sell, and even if we go 14-7 in the next 21, we might need too much to go "all in."

I hesitate to say "pretenders," but we are not top "contenders," right now, for sure.

Can 1 or 2 big deadline moves get us there? I'd say doubtful, unless Anthony or Crochet return and do very well, too.

[UtahSox]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The point about Tolle and IP also applies to Early and Bennett. BTW, Suarez has never gone more than 158 IP, and he's on pace for 175.

Gray & Chapman seem closer to 50 years old than 25. (Note: Chapman is, but Gray is not.)

Anthony & Crochet's returns seem eerily like Hendriks, Crawford and Casas.

I'm still leaning sell, and even if we go 14-7 in the next 21, we might need too much to go "all in."

I hesitate to say "pretenders," but we are not top "contenders," right now, for sure.

Can 1 or 2 big deadline moves get us there? I'd say doubtful, unless Anthony or Crochet return and do very well, too.

I’m adamant in not jeopardizing 2027 with any of these moves…. I agree we are a long ways away from competing for WS this year.

If we get Crochet, Suarez, and Roman all back healthy, I will say we would be a scarier team in October than last year. But even then it feels like everything has to go perfect for us to make it. 

I think we should be buyers but only players with 27 or beyond control.

Also, if the returns aren’t good enough, I’m OK standing still on additions/ selling. If nothing else this winning streak has given us that, it’s the leverage that other teams know they arent only having to outbid the other bidders. It also other orgs need to understand we are super OK trying to make the playoffs with this current roster.

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Also, if the returns aren’t good enough, I’m OK standing still on additions/ selling. If nothing else this winning streak has given us that, it’s the leverage that other teams know they arent only having to outbid the other bidders. It also other orgs need to understand we are super OK trying to make the playoffs with this current roster.

It's the trade deadline and it almost always is a seller's market. Less teams than ever move quality players. Time to open up shop IMO. 

[southpaw777]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's the trade deadline and it almost always is a seller's market. Less teams than ever move quality players. Time to open up shop IMO. 

Teams that are right there will usually go a little extra if they can taste that ring.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

Teams that are right there will usually go a little extra if they can taste that ring.

 

That's why the Sox should just cash in.

[JoeBrady]

Every time we win, we move closer to being buyers rather than sellers.  But still plenty of time.  If Pitt was going to do something stupid with Bubba or Hernandez (they won't), then I'd make the move and worry about it later.  Outside of that, I can easily wait two+ weeks before making a decision.

[Bellhorn04]

It's a team that now has a reasonable chance to make the playoffs.  Like about 20 other teams.  Playing a lot better, though.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's a team that now has a reasonable chance to make the playoffs.  Like about 20 other teams.  Playing a lot better, though.

I guess it's hard to know who this team is.

A few months ago, many of us felt like we were better than the 2025 team.

A month or two later, we were being called "possibly the worst Sox team" in decades or history.

Now, we've gone 12-2 and are playing as well as just about anyone else, despite losing half our top 10 SP'ers and a rookie many felt was poised to be a top MLB force.

By the deadline, maybe 10 teams will be 4, 5 or 6+ games behind, and I'd say the chance are we won't be in that group.

Buy?

Sell?

Buy and sell?

Do next to nothing?

Maybe the next 20 games will make the choice easier.

[notin]

Heart says contenders and to grab a couple pieces.

But head says cash on several players and gear up for 2027.  The very young Sox rotation could be especially fragile and once the deadline passes, it gets harder to reload for any injuries…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Heart says contenders and to grab a couple pieces.

But head says cash on several players and gear up for 2027.  The very young Sox rotation could be especially fragile and once the deadline passes, it gets harder to reload for any injuries…

Kinda how I feel, and I think whatever your goal is determines which way you lean.

If you think it's all about a ring, then 2026 seems like an extreme longshot, so sell.

If you think it's all about winning games and the here and now. That doing the best you can every year is the strategy, then buy.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Heart says contenders and to grab a couple pieces.

But head says cash on several players and gear up for 2027.  The very young Sox rotation could be especially fragile and once the deadline passes, it gets harder to reload for any injuries…

We have 8 guys that *might* be able to pitch, including Crochet, Bello, and Sandoval.  If we lose rookies due to an innings limit, they could be useful.  If we really knew their status.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If you think it's all about winning games and the here and now. That doing the best you can every year is the strategy, then buy.

Personally, I like the ride.  I don't mind tanking, if I see no road, but this doesn't feel like it.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If you think it's all about a ring, then 2026 seems like an extreme longshot, so sell.

Every year is a long shot for a ring.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Every year is a long shot for a ring.

Especially now with the freaking Dodgers as loaded as they are, and set up to keep rolling like this a few more years.

Which is part of the reason the upcoming labor talks promise to be ugly.  We have teams that are over the salary cap the owners are looking for by vast amounts.

[moonslav59]

Saw some talk show where the guy was singling out the SDP, PHI and NYM for spending so much and never winning a ring, while other teams like the Rays cycle some really good years as much as they do.

[Bellhorn04]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Saw some talk show where the guy was singling out the SDP, PHI and NYM for spending so much and never winning a ring, while other teams like the Rays cycle some really good years as much as they do.

Philly at least has been making the playoffs and did make it to the Series once.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Saw some talk show where the guy was singling out the SDP, PHI and NYM for spending so much and never winning a ring, while other teams like the Rays cycle some really good years as much as they do.

What is the argument? Tampa is always in it, but has never won it.

Fans of SD, Philly and Mets can't fault their teams for trying to win, either, and at least they have star players to watch and root for.

[Behindenemylines]

The Sox have received contender pitching during this recent streak. This without Crochet. A healthy Crochet added to the current staff is as good as pitching in the AL. Strong defense and an average offense and they can be contenders in a VERY WEAK AL. Need to get healthy though! A lot of important pieces are out of action now.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

The Sox have received contender pitching during this recent streak. This without Crochet. A healthy Crochet added to the current staff is as good as pitching in the AL. Strong defense and an average offense and they can be contenders in a VERY WEAK AL. Need to get healthy though! A lot of important pieces are out of action now.

Don't worry, they are probably calling Bello back up to replace Ranger.

 

[southpaw777]

1 hour ago, Behindenemylines said:

The Sox have received contender pitching during this recent streak. This without Crochet. A healthy Crochet added to the current staff is as good as pitching in the AL. Strong defense and an average offense and they can be contenders in a VERY WEAK AL. Need to get healthy though! A lot of important pieces are out of action now.

Tolle and Bennett will hit innings limits. Tolle is a months worth of starts away before he exceeds last years IP, and Bennett is on a strictpitch count per game and innings limit this year after his return from TJS last year.

when will Crochet, who’s had a long injury history be ready? Suarez is out for at least a couple more starts. He always misses 6-7 games a year.  Early has a bad elbow, which isn’t good. 
were playing our IF with all AAAA type guys besides Durbin. Our best hitter is going away for 4 games and we don’t know who’s starting tomorrow night because our starting depth was all traded away. Roman Anthony hasn’t proved anything I MLb except he’s looking pretty soft along with Mayer.
im just not as optimistic as some. We would have to give up a bunch of prospects to have a legit shot at the World Series.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Philly at least has been making the playoffs and did make it to the Series once.  

Yes, I did not agree with all the points this guy was making, and having a highly competitive team that is fun to watch just about every year is also a worthy goal- not just rings every 5-7 years. (BTW, this is year 8.)

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

Tolle and Bennett will hit innings limits. Tolle is a months worth of starts away before he exceeds last years IP, and Bennett is on a strictpitch count per game and innings limit this year after his return from TJS last year.

when will Crochet, who’s had a long injury history be ready? Suarez is out for at least a couple more starts. He always misses 6-7 games a year.  Early has a bad elbow, which isn’t good. 
were playing our IF with all AAAA type guys besides Durbin. Our best hitter is going away for 4 games and we don’t know who’s starting tomorrow night because our starting depth was all traded away. Roman Anthony hasn’t proved anything I MLb except he’s looking pretty soft along with Mayer.
im just not as optimistic as some. We would have to give up a bunch of prospects to have a legit shot at the World Series.

Good point.

I will say that Bennett only had 39 IP in the minors and has 48 in he bigs. He might have 13-14 more starts to go. I think he can give us 5 IP x 13 more. (85+87=172.)

Tolle will have to be given a break beyond the ASB or be on a strict pitch count the remainder of the season. If Early returns, he might, too. The pen will be over-taxed. We may need a couple pen games to give an extra day's rest.

The Sox have more games to play than others due to postponed games. There is a doubleheader coming up in the middle of a long stretch of games without a day off.

Tracy will need to be a magician, unless Crochet returns or Bello gets his act together, and this assumes Suarez is okay. BTW, Ranger has never gone more than 158 IP in a season.

Taking all this into account, selling makes more sense than buying.

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point.

I will say that Bennett only had 39 IP in the minors and has 48 in he bigs. He might have 13-14 more starts to go. I think he can give us 5 IP x 13 more. (85+87=172.)

Tolle will have to be given a break beyond the ASB or be on a strict pitch count the remainder of the season. If Early returns, he might, too. The pen will be over-taxed. We may need a couple pen games to give an extra day's rest.

The Sox have more games to play than others due to postponed games. There is a doubleheader coming up in the middle of a long stretch of games without a day off.

Tracy will need to be a magician, unless Crochet returns or Bello gets his act together, and this assumes Suarez is okay. BTW, Ranger has never gone more than 158 IP in a season.

Taking all this into account, selling makes more sense than buying.

Jake Bennett is already at a career high in IP AND coming off TJS rehab last season, but you want him to pitch another 90 IP? Crazy. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Jake Bennett is already at a career high in IP AND coming off TJS rehab last season, but you want him to pitch another 90 IP? Crazy. 

I didnt say "want." I said he could maybe pitch 85 more.

[scs1918]

This team is weird just like this whole Anthony injury mess and I'm a little skeptical when Crochet is coming back from his injury. Just like I was when he himself didn't have that many professional innings under his belt prior to last year.

I feel like we are getting teased with this team. Are they just clicking is it the competition? I agree we have AAAA players all over the IF. I mean my daughter was pulling hard for Mickey Gasper to get more playing time when they couldn't hit as a team. She said I'm taking what I can get.

It is unfortunate that this team has pitched so well and played good defense without any offense for most of the year.

For me, Bello and Sandoval will be important pieces if we are to contend in the 2nd half, as we have too many rookies in the rotation. It would be awesome if we could get enough healthy pieces to get a six man rotation but that's wishful thinking as we are barely getting five now.

Also, I think or hope if they get a great return for Grey they have to pull the trigger as there are just too many teams lumped together and I'm not sure if this team can contended.

Though, I would like to see Grey come back and maybe finish his career with the Sox.

More concerned as I don't really have too much faith in Breslow and his word salads. I'm still laughing about Breslow wanting Bello to love baseball again.

[southpaw777]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point.

I will say that Bennett only had 39 IP in the minors and has 48 in he bigs. He might have 13-14 more starts to go. I think he can give us 5 IP x 13 more. (85+87=172.)

Tolle will have to be given a break beyond the ASB or be on a strict pitch count the remainder of the season. If Early returns, he might, too. The pen will be over-taxed. We may need a couple pen games to give an extra day's rest.

The Sox have more games to play than others due to postponed games. There is a doubleheader coming up in the middle of a long stretch of games without a day off.

Tracy will need to be a magician, unless Crochet returns or Bello gets his act together, and this assumes Suarez is okay. BTW, Ranger has never gone more than 158 IP in a season.

Taking all this into account, selling makes more sense than buying.

Bennett just got back from TJS just last year. No way they throw him 172ip. No way. He’s on a strict IP and it’s NOT 172.  Tolle won’t even go that far. He’s had 120ip as his max career IP and he’s around 90 now. Figure 30-40 is more than last year is what the6 usually do. Tolle and Bennett will be gassed come mid September.

i mean, they could push them a little but i doubt either will have much left come Oct.. Bello still blows this year and do you want to count on Sandoval after two years off? He’s an opener at this point. 4-5ip. 
THIS is why I bitch about not having enough pitching depth. You need starters 1-10 ready, not 1-7 or 8.Sandy would be starter 9 but he’s only an opener at this point.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, southpaw777 said:

Bennett just got back from TJS just last year. No way they throw him 172ip. No way. He’s on a strict IP and it’s NOT 172.  Tolle won’t even go that far. He’s had 120ip as his max career IP and he’s around 90 now. Figure 30-40 is more than last year is what the6 usually do. Tolle and Bennett will be gassed come mid September.

i mean, they could push them a little but i doubt either will have much left come Oct.

This September, it will be 3 years since his surgery..

I agree, it would be pushing it, but he could come close. It's not unheard of after 1.5 years off and rehabbing.

[moonslav59]

We will almost certainly need Bello or Crochet to eat some innings, if we stay in this thing and keep Gray.

Early and Tolle will be limited, and Bennett will not be overworked.

Gray & Suarez will need to max out.

I doubt Crawford or Oviedo even pitch. Houck is a long shot, even in a relief role for 2026.

Uberstine is a pen arm, and Holobetz & Eyanson are in AA and not on the 40.

[southpaw777]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This September, it will be 3 years since his surgery..

I agree, it would be pushing it, but he could come close. It's not unheard of after 1.5 years off and rehabbing.

I know butHe just returned last year and they will NOT throw him 172. I doubt his arm would go that far at this point anyway….