Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

"By acquiring Jahmai Jones we've bolstered our outfield corpse," said nobody out loud in the front office. "His 2 homers, .137 batting average and .440 OPS from the right side are the perfect complement to Duran from the left side."

Shows how low Duran has set the bar.

[moonslav59]

Due to being rentals, BTV assigns some pretty low values for Jeffers and BLowe. I suspect it will cost way more than what is listed here, just as it would cost more to trade for the -$2M Sonny Gray or $3.3M Chapman. 

$5.9M Jeffers

$4.3M BLowe

To me, these two feel right. They are good enough to not be dud of a deadline, but not so costly that we need to trade Early, Arias or Eyanson to acquire.

What would it take to get both?

Here are some BTV values of players I might part with:

31.2 Mayer (maybe for both, somehow involving more players or teams)

24.2 Azocar (for both or one plus more?)

22.0 Gonzales (for both or one plus more?)

16.9 D Soto?

12.7 Valera?

11.8 Witherspoon?

11.2 Delzine (I would for one)

9.3 Godbout (I would for one)

8.6 Duran (yea, right)

8.3 Phillips (I would for one)

5.9 Rivas +2.1 Uberstine? I would

5.1 Cespedes +2.8 Holobetz? I would

2.3 Romero + 2.4 Samaniego+ 1.7 Mullins/Monegro/Ramos? I would

I kinda like this line-up:

1. Jeffers RHB C (.404 OBP)

2. Rafaela RHB CF (.328 OBP/.433 SLG)

3. BLowe LHB 2B (.487 SLG)

4. Contreras RHB 1B (.542 SLG)

5. Abreu LHB RF (.428 SLG) Flip to 6 slot v L

6. Durbin RHB 3B (Man on Fire) Flip to 5 slot v L

7.  Romy RHB DH v L & R / Seigler L/R v some R

8. Yoshida LHB LF 

9. Monasterio L/R SS v R/ Cheng RHB v L (until Story returns?) Seigler at SS? Yikes!?!?

Bench: Wong (Narvaez to AAA) Seigler, Duran, Cheng or Monasterio

 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Due to being rentals, BTV assigns some pretty low values for Jeffers and BLowe. I suspect it will cost way more than what is listed here, just as it would cost more to trade for the -$2M Sonny Gray or $3.3M Chapman. 

$5.9M Jeffers

$4.3M BLowe

To me, these two feel right. They are good enough to not be dud of a deadline, but not so costly that we need to trade Early, Arias or Eyanson to acquire.

What would it take to get both?

Here are some BTV values of players I might part with:

31.2 Mayer (maybe for both, somehow involving more players or teams)

24.2 Azocar (for both or one plus more?)

22.0 Gonzales (for both or one plus more?)

16.9 D Soto?

12.7 Valera?

11.8 Witherspoon?

11.2 Delzine (I would for one)

9.3 Godbout (I would for one)

8.6 Duran (yea, right)

8.3 Phillips (I would for one)

5.9 Rivas +2.1 Uberstine? I would

5.1 Cespedes +2.8 Holobetz? I would

2.3 Romero + 2.4 Samaniego+ 1.7 Mullins/Monegro/Ramos? I would

 

 

 

If anything, I think Gray’s surplus value is high. 
 

I think/hope the Sox prioritize LF/DH over 2b.  Seigler is doing a good job and the Sox have a glut of middle infielders on the IL that might come off…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

If anything, I think Gray’s surplus value is high. 
I think/hope the Sox prioritize LF/DH over 2b.  Seigler is doing a good job and the Sox have a glut of middle infielders on the IL that might come off…

The thing about Gray is that the team has to pay his salary, even the part STL pays to BOS, unless we kick that back to the new team.

Gray's value to a team not worried about money is higher, IMO, but maybe 20 teams cannot or will not pay that amount.

Chapman seems under-valued, but closers often are.

To me, Catcher should be #1 or #2.

DH/LF or DH/C as #2 or #3

SS #3 or #2

(2B as #4.)

I just like Lowe's power, despite being a LHB.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

If anything, I think Gray’s surplus value is high. 
 

I think/hope the Sox prioritize LF/DH over 2b.  Seigler is doing a good job and the Sox have a glut of middle infielders on the IL that might come off…

I'd like to see a SS and Jeffers.

Lindor, Adames, Neto, Pena, _____?

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to see a SS and Jeffers.

Lindor, Adames, Neto, Pena, _____?

We have Story, Mayer, IKF, and Cheng at SS.   And Arias waiting for his Big Ď

LF is just Duran and Jahmai Jones until Roman returns…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

We have Story, Mayer, IKF, and Cheng at SS.   And Arias waiting for his Big Ď

LF is just Duran and Jahmai Jones until Roman returns…

Or upgrade to Mrs. Middlebrooks and Jahmai Webster until Heidi Whatney returns.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd like to see a SS and Jeffers.

Lindor, Adames, Neto, Pena, _____?

Pena is the most reasonable here as he's on a short contract. Angels have already sent out signals that it would take a king's ransom for Neto. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pena is the most reasonable here as he's on a short contract. Angels have already sent out signals that it would take a king's ransom for Neto. 

I like Pena better anyway. He's a better hitter and Neto leads the league in strikeouts; I know Zach has big time power, but I'm so sick of Red Sox Ks. 

And we already know Pena can succeed in New England, drafted out of UMaine!

[notin]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pena is the most reasonable here as he's on a short contract. Angels have already sent out signals that it would take a king's ransom for Neto. 

Mayer and Duran for Pena?

[southpaw777]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Mayer and Duran for Pena?

If they were to trade for a couple players Peralta and Pena would be good choices. 
they should sell. I’m just playing along.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Mayer and Duran for Pena?

I'd consider giving him an extension through 2030 after trading for him too. 

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

We have Story, Mayer, IKF, and Cheng at SS.  

Exactly the reason SS is #1 or #2.

If and when Arias is ready, we have a need at 2B, too.

1. Catcher

2. SS or DH/LF

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I like Pena better anyway. He's a better hitter and Neto leads the league in strikeouts; I know Zach has big time power, but I'm so sick of Red Sox Ks. 

And we already know Pena can succeed in New England, drafted out of UMaine!

Pena does have 1 more year of arb, but he as missed time with injuries the last 1.5 seasons.

Word down here is that HOU will not extend him.

HOU does not want Duran, but they need a LHB OF'er. Maybe we can force him upon them and offer them a second piece that convinces them. It might take Early & Duran, but maybe Witherspoon, Duran & Phillips?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly the reason SS is #1 or #2.

If and when Arias is ready, we have a need at 2B, too.

1. Catcher

2. SS or DH/LF

Sea Dawgs have been playing Arias at 2B lately, too... getting him ready for a utility role in a big league stretch run (or showcasing him for someone else's run)?

[Hugh2]

I know BTV isn't the end all be all but it's a usefull tool none the less. 

One thing I've looked at there the last couple years is how actual trades that happened were valued.  And for the most part the BTV was very close to equal on both sides of the vast majority of trades. 

What is interesting, and not surprising at all, is where I saw larger discrepencies in value.  Trade deadline trades where prospects where traded for MLB talent.  Pretty consistently.  So if you're putting together a prospect package that matches the value of a proven quality mlb player on BTV......odds are you're probably way too light. 

It makes sense....a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Pena does have 1 more year of arb, but he as missed time with injuries the last 1.5 seasons.

Word down here is that HOU will not extend him.

HOU does not want Duran, but they need a LHB OF'er. Maybe we can force him upon them and offer them a second piece that convinces them. It might take Early & Duran, but maybe Witherspoon, Duran & Phillips?

You would know. But I would expect it will take MLB-ready pitching for Houston to deal. Early is hurt, Bello is owed lots, and Tolle isn't happening... so it has to be Bennett. Unless they'd want a couple guys not far away, like Eyanson and Holobetz.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sea Dawgs have been playing Arias at 2B lately, too... getting him ready for a utility role in a big league stretch run (or showcasing him for someone else's run)?

Our middle infield as been a disaster for many years. Back to the Pedey days. Bogey was a plus value SS, but not good on D. Story was okay at 2B, when healthy and had one okay year at SS.

We have sucked at middle infield.

Keeping Arias is a must, despite the chance he flops.

Nobody else excites me. I need more time to evaluate Seigler.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

What if they want Arias?

Tough one I’d probably do it… make them take back Bello/ yoshida in deal. 

[UtahSox]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Mayer and Duran for Pena?

Mayer, Duran, Phillips for Pena? I’m still in

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Pena is the most reasonable here as he's on a short contract. Angels have already sent out signals that it would take a king's ransom for Neto. 

This tracks as there is not much to get excited about in Anaheim these days. Big market team w/ an owner that believes people come to ballpark to watch stars hit. Neto is that…… Neto is a great young player would be a lot of fun. You guys would love him, there’s some Pedroia esque qualities to him. 
 

but agree with analysis if the assets used to acquire him is even marginally higher than Pena… I’m of the belief Pena would be awesome. 

[notin]

McCullers to Milwaukee.

Houston, 0.5 games behind Boston, appears to be selling…

[notin]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Mayer, Duran, Phillips for Pena? I’m still in

It’s not unreasonable. But what’s the lightest package you walk away from?

[UtahSox]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

McCullers to Milwaukee.

Houston, 0.5 games behind Boston, appears to be selling…

Go get Paredes AND Peña. 🙏 I’m getting greedy

[notin]

26 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Tough one I’d probably do it… make them take back Bello/ yoshida in deal. 

If Sacra-Vegas is dealing Langeliers, it’s for cash reasons.  Doubtful they want to take back a cumbersome contract. 
 

But part of me thinks they want to debut in Vegas with some stars and therefore prefer to keep Kurtz, Langeliers, Rooker and Butler on their squad… 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Go get Paredes AND Peña. 🙏 I’m getting greedy

In the standings, the Sox are barely better than a team already selling.

Worth noting that dealing the perennially injured McCullers might not equate to a complete white flag.  It might just be moving an annual headache to another team…

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s not unreasonable…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Was he singing about Jeremy Peña back then?

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Was he singing about Jeremy Peña back then?

Not until '99.