Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bailey is not the magician many think he is.

I don't think anyone believes he's a magician. Pitchers have left and improved. Sox are just tweaking guys and adding velo. There's no secret sauce.

[notin]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He means Ryan Ward for LAD. I wouldn't trust PCL numbers though! 

Why the f*** would the Sox want to add another inexperienced player into the mix?!

And a left-handed one? Are we getting dazzled by 34 PA stretches from other teams now?

All this and more on the next episode of “The Monster is Always Greener”…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I can see reasons why and why not.

Torkelson is 26, makes $4mill and has two more years until free agency.  His career OPS+ is 101, making him a league average hitter.  
 

But his StatCast page is surprisingly red, and this quite often carries greater future implications than past stats.  And if I know it, certainly Detroit does too.

But his last two years could cost Detroit $10-15mill.  Are they willing to see if he plays up to his skill in that time?  If they lose Skubal, what is their plan for 2027 and beyond?

BTV gives him a surplus value of $2.4mill, similar to that of Tyler Samaniego.  I doubt they make that trade, BTW.  But I think Boston could get their attention. I’d deal Bello here yesterday, but not sure about Detroit...

Why are the Tigers trading their starting 1b when they are actually in the playoff hunt and Skubal is coming back? 

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Why the f*** would the Sox want to add another inexperienced player into the mix?!

And a left-handed one? Are we getting dazzled by 34 PA stretches from other teams now?

All this and more on the next episode of “The Monster is Always Greener”…

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Give Early the rest of the season this year and his fWAR will look like Bello's previous few years. Bello is a back end starter, which you said "was perfectly fine for him to settle into at 9M." If it was fine for him to be paid as a back end guy at 9M in 24, why dump him now? He's been a guy that you can rely on to be out there just about 30 G every year unlike the majority of pitchers. 

Everyone is NOT healthy and Gray will not be returning next season. I'm also not sold on Jake Bennett as a starter. I think the rotation is Crochet/Suarez/Tolle/Early/Bello. We've seen Bello be successful this season. The Sox just have to unlock whatever is going on with him.

The starting rotation looks good until the IL comes a calling. Let’s see how. Early, and Tolle make it through the rest of the year before expectations for next year.

[UtahSox]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Some were, but I wasn’t. Con Man has worked out well so far, but career wise he hasn’t had the BIG bat Alonso’s had. Con was cheaper option for a shorter period of time.

Old Red and I weren’t. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Why are the Tigers trading their starting 1b when they are actually in the playoff hunt and Skubal is coming back? 

They’re 0.5 games ahead of Boston.  But they’re back in the mix and Boston isn’t?  

Plus thisdeal could happen in the off-season.  I first mentioned Torkelson when UtahSox asked about free agent targets, and I pivoted to trade targets

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

They’re 0.5 games ahead of Boston.  But they’re back in the mix and Boston isn’t?  

Is Crochet coming back as soon as Skubal is? 

[UtahSox]

54 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I wonder, does anyone believe the Sox should be buyers?

Yes I think the Red Sox need to be 2027 buyers now.

I literally can’t fathom another year of this anemic offense. Buyers on 2027 bats. Sellers on anyone who doesn’t heavily weigh into 2027 plan

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I thought we were all high fiving that we didnt get Alonso?

I've said going back to the offseason that Contreras would have a higher fWAR than Alonso. If they were to acquire both and put Alonso at DH, fine. 

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Why the f*** would the Sox want to add another inexperienced player into the mix?!

And a left-handed one? Are we getting dazzled by 34 PA stretches from other teams now?

All this and more on the next episode of “The Monster is Always Greener”…

I meant Braden Ward.  Granted the context was bad as i segued from external add to an internal candidate and looking back, i see why you guys thought i meant an external ward.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

Yes I think the Red Sox need to be 2027 buyers now.

I literally can’t fathom another year of this anemic offense. Buyers on 2027 bats. Sellers on anyone who doesn’t heavily weigh into 2027 plan

Pitching and defense didn't work this year. What if they tried to buy bunting and stolen bases this offseason? 🤩

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I meant Braden Ward.  Granted the context was bad as i segued from external add to an internal candidate and looking back, i see why you guys thought i meant an external ward.

Do you still need help finding his OBP? 

[UtahSox]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I've said going back to the offseason that Contreras would have a higher fWAR than Alonso. If they were to acquire both and put Alonso at DH, fine. 

I think at the time of Alonso signing most people in here thought AB2 would be back. Hindsight being 20/20 I’ll bet RS are going to regret not even entertaining the Alonso deal. Not as badly as 2021 Schwarber but still regret it. 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is Crochet coming back as soon as Skubal is? 

Maybe.  Will Skubal be traded in 4 weeks?

[UtahSox]

OBP% is an irrelevant stat as RS can’t hit w/ RISP until we are up by 3+ or down by 3+. RS need thump. They needed it in August last year, and they’ve needed it everyday since. Hell I need it for my mentals. 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I meant Braden Ward.  Granted the context was bad as i segued from external add to an internal candidate and looking back, i see why you guys thought i meant an external ward.

I hope Braiden Ward makes the 2027 team as a 4th OF / PR.  Especially in ghost runner situations…

[mvp 78]

Just now, UtahSox said:

OBP% is an irrelevant stat as RS can’t hit w/ RISP until we are up by 3+ or down by 3+. RS need thump. They needed it in August last year, and they’ve needed it everyday since. Hell I need it for my mentals. 

If they need thump, it's not Braiden Ward. He'd be one of the 3 weakest hitters in MLB.

 

[mvp 78]

 

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I've said going back to the offseason that Contreras would have a higher fWAR than Alonso. If they were to acquire both and put Alonso at DH, fine. 

And as I said then, and I’ll say the same thing now that Alonso will end up with more HR, and RBI just as he has throughout his career.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

And as I said then, and I’ll say the same thing now that Alonso will end up with more HR, and RBI just as he has throughout his career.

Not fair to compare RBI straight up when Contreras is coming up with fewer runners on base.

Alonso has come up with 214 runners on base and driven on 29 of them.  Contreras has come up with 147 runners on base and driven in 26.

Contreras is coming up with 1 less runner on base every game. And has just 5 fewer RBI…

[notin]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Paredes continues to be pull-happy with his Fenway swing.  BTV gives him a surplus value of $29.2 mill, roughly the same as Anthony Eyanson.  I’m not pulling that trigger just yet…

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Not fair to compare RBI straight up when Contreras is coming up with fewer runners on base.

Alonso has come up with 214 runners on base and driven on 29 of them.  Contreras has come up with 147 runners on base and driven in 26.

Contreras is coming up with 1 less runner on base every game. And has just 5 fewer RBI…

Then I guess it’s been the same way all throughout their careers. Of course that doesn’t account for the HR.

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And as I said then, and I’ll say the same thing now that Alonso will end up with more HR, and RBI just as he has throughout his career.

If Contreras hit in Alonso's spot on the O's, he'd have more RBI than Alonso. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Not fair to compare RBI straight up when Contreras is coming up with fewer runners on base.

Alonso has come up with 214 runners on base and driven on 29 of them.  Contreras has come up with 147 runners on base and driven in 26.

Contreras is coming up with 1 less runner on base every game. And has just 5 fewer RBI…

He's also a supremely cooler ballplayer and more fun to watch.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Then I guess it’s been the same way all throughout their careers. Of course that doesn’t account for the HR.

Well, it does. But only the folks on base when they hit one. 
 

Alonso has 44 RBI, but 15 of them were himself who was not “on base” to be driven in. He’s driven in himself more than any of his individual teammates, although he has driven in Taylor Ward 14 times.  Ward, as mentioned earlier, is having a freakishly good OBP this year.  Contreras has driven in himself 13 times, but hasn’t driven in any teammate more than 8 times.  Sluggers with 20 HR or more often drive in themselves more than any individual teammates.

The fairest comp I use is % of baserunners driven in, which clearly favors Contreras here, 17.6% to 13.6%.  For some reference, most RBI leaders drive in roughly 16-18% of all runners on base.  And folks say OBP isn’t important….  

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Paredes continues to be pull-happy with his Fenway swing.  BTV gives him a surplus value of $29.2 mill, roughly the same as Anthony Eyanson.  I’m not pulling that trigger just yet…

Parades for Eyanson? Pass. 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Parades for Eyanson? Pass. 

Agreed.

But who for Paredes? Not sure what Houston wants here or what Breslow is offering…

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Agreed.

But who for Paredes? Not sure what Houston wants here or what Breslow is offering…

I think Eyanson is probably undervalued ATM on BTV. I don't think they do a great job at valuing guys who don't already have established MLB careers. 

Who else? I'd go with any 2 guys from 15 and below. A lot less value now that this year is shot for both teams. 

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Contreras hit in Alonso's spot on the O's, he'd have more RBI than Alonso. 

That’s pure speculation. As I’ve said before I’m not downing the Con Man. I’m just saying that Alonso has had, and will have more HR, and RBI at the end of the season. Just go back, and compare their production stats since 2019  when Alonso started his career. It’s not that close on the HR, and RBI.