Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Hes my salary dump for Bello.  Not the missing piece.

Bello struggling for 2 months shouldn't be a reason to give up on him. He's been a quality starter for the past few years. If the pitching dev can't fix him, than Breslow, Bailey, et al really are lost. 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Hes my salary dump for Bello.  Not the missing piece.

 

You advertised him as this

" it makes sense to add him as a RHH C/1b/DH bat. "

 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello struggling for 2 months shouldn't be a reason to give up on him. He's been a quality starter for the past few years. If the pitching dev can't fix him, than Breslow, Bailey, et al really are lost. 

They are more lost than the passengers of the flight that crashed on the mythical island.

[notin]

Just now, drewski6 said:

You advertised him as this

" it makes sense to add him as a RHH C/1b/DH bat. "

 

Does that mean he is the missing piece? He does and can do all those things.  And can pribably outhit Narvaez while playing equal or better defense.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello struggling for 2 months shouldn't be a reason to give up on him. He's been a quality starter for the past few years. If the pitching dev can't fix him, than Breslow, Bailey, et al really are lost. 

So now Bello has been a quality starter for years ”for years”?  Which years?

He had an impressive top ten ERA last year, but overall he had barely more fWAR than Connelly Early.  And Early only had 14 IP!

Bello is not untalented, but he is overpaid and probably miscast.  I’d like him more if he was amenable to relieving, but he isn’t so far.

His contract isn’t deadly, but it’s definitely an overpay.  If he would accept a bullpen role that Boston badly needs, I could see keeoing him.  But he’s not among Boston’s top 7 starting pitchers when everyone is healthy…

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Does that mean he is the missing piece? He does and can do all those things.  And can pribably outhit Narvaez while playing equal or better defense.

You want to see this turkey at DH? 1B?  You looking to improve the D behind the plate?

This just feels like more of the same.  We need a RH bat, lets limit the scope to guys who fit our positional holes....This is jsut another noodlebat taking a spot on the 26 man roster.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

They are more lost than the passengers of the flight that crashed on the mythical island.

Those guys weren’t lost.  I saw them every Wednesday at 8pm.  I knew right where they were - on ABC…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You want to see this turkey at DH? 1B?  You looking to improve the D behind the plate?

This just feels like more of the same.  We need a RH bat, let’s limit the scope to guys who fit our positional holes....This is jsut another noodlebat taking a spot on the 26 man roster.

As I said, I’m looking to maintain the D behind the plate while improving the O.  No catcher plays full time, and Narvaez shouldn’t be relegated to 40-50 games, either.  But if you like Connor Wong…

I did mention another DH/1b name I thought were get more negative attention…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I’m for just riding things out as they are right now, and just limbo how low you can go until the trade deadline. Getting a BIG bat like Alonso who hit his 15th last night should have been done in the offseason.

I thought we were all high fiving that we didnt get Alonso?

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

He could fill in there.  I did mention another DH/1b name I thought were get more negative attention…

I love being one injury away from a .150 OPS DH/1B.

[drewski6]

Our DH for 2027 is likely Roman Anthony.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

He could fill in there.  I did mention another DH/1b name I thought were get more negative attention…

I like Spencer idea.  Hes a bat first player having a cold streak.  Thats way different from a lets get better at backup catcher defense.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Our DH for 2027 is likely Roman Anthony.

Possible if they keep Duran.  No idea if that’s the plan…

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

They are more lost than the passengers of the flight that crashed on the mythical island.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Possible if they keep Duran.  No idea if that’s the plan…

I think if they move Duran , we see another bat brought in.  Whats Wards OBP and is he serviceable defensively?

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I like Spencer idea.  Hes a bat first player having a cold streak.  Thats way different from a lets get better at backup catcher defense.

I figured most would hate Torkelson and his .717 OPS and SLG only slightly better than Andruw Monasterio.

But is red StatCast page indicates there is more beneath the surface…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think if they move Duran , we see another bat brought in.  Whats Wards OBP and is he serviceable defensively?

No Taylor Ward.  His .410 OBP looks great, but it’s not only a career high, it’s 50 points above his previous best that was 5 years ago

I hope our CBO learns to avoid players in their mid-30s having sudden resurgent years right before free agency…

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

So now Bello has been a quality starter for years ”for years”?  Which years?

He had an impressive top ten ERA last year, but overall he had barely more fWAR than Connelly Early.  And Early only had 14 IP!

Bello is not untalented, but he is overpaid and probably miscast.  I’d like him more if he was amenable to relieving, but he isn’t so far.

His contract isn’t deadly, but it’s definitely an overpay.  If he would accept a bullpen role that Boston badly needs, I could see keeoing him.  But he’s not among Boston’s top 7 starting pitchers when everyone is healthy…

He was 53rd out of 106 qualified starters in fWAR from 23-25. If that's not quality, I don't know what to tell you. Is he a #2? No! He's fine for a backend guy, which is just what posters were telling me was fine for his dumb extension. He's underpaid! He's actually a bargain! I've been told that hundreds of times on here. You've made that argument. Now you want to dump him because he's not pitching well for a few months? Crazy. 

Barely more fWAR than Early? Include Early's numbers from this year and they still don't add up to Bello's fWAR from last season. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

As I said, I’m looking to maintain the D behind the plate while improving the O.  No catcher plays full time, and Narvaez shouldn’t be relegated to 40-50 games, either.  But if you like Connor Wong…

I did mention another DH/1b name I thought were get more negative attention…

Getting Murphy would barely move the needle on offense while giving up on a young pitcher who has a cheap, cost controlled contract. Crazy.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think if they move Duran , we see another bat brought in.  Whats Wards OBP and is he serviceable defensively?

They haven't been able to move Duran yet. No reason they'll be able to now.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

No Taylor Ward.  His .410 OBP looks great, but it’s not only a career high, it’s 50 points above his previous best that was 5 years ago

I hope our CBO learns to avoid players in their mid-30s having sudden resurgent years right before free agency…

He means Ryan Ward for LAD. I wouldn't trust PCL numbers though! 

[Hugh2]

I wonder, does anyone believe the Sox should be buyers?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I wonder, does anyone believe the Sox should be buyers?

Anyone that isn't employed by the Red Sox you mean?

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Free agent class sucks.  And I will ignore the very important but unknown CBA implications for now.
 

But I would try to add Bo Bichette (can opt out and was the only FA worth looking at last year) and - here comes my typical controversial choice - Spencer Torkelson…

Agree on FA class which is why we are seeing the gold standard of big spenders already committed next year to higher payrolls than this year. Dodgers 421m next year. Actually some decent pitching available in free agency, but the bats are abysmal. Good thing RS don’t need any of those. 

Bo after tax implications will cost Mets 100m this year. Maybe they move him now? I think Bo fits exactly what this team needs a good baseball player that can hit….. He can play decent 3b and projects solidly at 2b. But what this team really needs are MLB caliber AB’s. Bo will do that. 

I just don’t see Tigers trading Torkelson, former #1 pick, only 26 years old, it’s not like they have a great young 1b/DH pushing him out. He can mentor McGonigle/ Max Clark as they come up. Still has 3 years left. IDK I just don’t see it. He is a nice piece for their quick rebuild…. Is there something I’m missing? I know he and Riley Greene both have a ton of swing and miss, maybe tigers wanting a different bat profile?
 

[notin]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He was 53rd out of 106 qualified starters in fWAR from 23-25. If that's not quality, I don't know what to tell you. Is he a #2? No! He's fine for a backend guy, which is just what posters were telling me was fine for his dumb extension. He's underpaid! He's actually a bargain! I've been told that hundreds of times on here. You've made that argument. Now you want to dump him because he's not pitching well for a few months? Crazy. 

Barely more fWAR than Early? Include Early's numbers from this year and they still don't add up to Bello's fWAR from last season. 

Ive argued his AAV is not bad for him as a pitcher, but he’s not anywhere close to the Sox top 5 starters.  That Early hasn’t caught him yet in fWAR or bWAR yet is not the pro-Bello argument you’re posting it as since Early still has barely more than half the IP.

I wanted to trade Bello last off-season along with Duran.  And that was before he was demoted.  And even this year Ive wanted him to move to the bullpen and be the RP Breslow should have acquired last November. While Bello insists he is a starter, I don’t know how obstinate he really is, so I’m not going to yet claim he’s being difficult.   But I’d move him.

Murphy was a close BTV matchup, and I think his hitting since 2023 is a product of injuries and losing playing time to Drake Baldwin.  The actual BTV matchup was Murphy (whose surplus value is a couple mill lower than Duran’s) plus AJ Smith-Shaw er for Bello, which I do if AJSS is healthy or close to it.

Id also move Bello to Detroit for Spencer Torkelson yesterday.  And I’d move him to the pitching-depleted Cubs if there was a march, and I don’t think they give up Shaw in that trade.

Bello is outside the Sox top 5?starterscwhen everyone is healthy.  If he wants to try relieving, great.  But he is absolutely movable and the biggest obstacle is probably his contract…

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I thought we were all high fiving that we didnt get Alonso?

Some were, but I wasn’t. Con Man has worked out well so far, but career wise he hasn’t had the BIG bat Alonso’s had. Con was cheaper option for a shorter period of time.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Agree on FA class which is why we are seeing the gold standard of big spenders already committed next year to higher payrolls than this year. Dodgers 421m next year. Actually some decent pitching available in free agency, but the bats are abysmal. Good thing RS don’t need any of those. 

Bo after tax implications will cost Mets 100m this year. Maybe they move him now? I think Bo fits exactly what this team needs a good baseball player that can hit….. He can play decent 3b and projects solidly at 2b. But what this team really needs are MLB caliber AB’s. Bo will do that. 

I just don’t see Tigers trading Torkelson, former #1 pick, only 26 years old, it’s not like they have a great young 1b/DH pushing him out. He can mentor McGonigle/ Max Clark as they come up. Still has 3 years left. IDK I just don’t see it. He is a nice piece for their quick rebuild…. Is there something I’m missing? I know he and Riley Greene both have a ton of swing and miss, maybe tigers wanting a different bat profile?
 

I think Bo has an opt out and he'd be pretty crappy at Fenway IMO. He doesn't pull the ball and has a high GB rate.  Can't have a high $$$ guy like that putting up years like 24 and 26 TBH.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello struggling for 2 months shouldn't be a reason to give up on him. He's been a quality starter for the past few years. If the pitching dev can't fix him, than Breslow, Bailey, et al really are lost. 

Bailey is not the magician many think he is.

[notin]

19 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Agree on FA class which is why we are seeing the gold standard of big spenders already committed next year to higher payrolls than this year. Dodgers 421m next year. Actually some decent pitching available in free agency, but the bats are abysmal. Good thing RS don’t need any of those. 

Bo after tax implications will cost Mets 100m this year. Maybe they move him now? I think Bo fits exactly what this team needs a good baseball player that can hit….. He can play decent 3b and projects solidly at 2b. But what this team really needs are MLB caliber AB’s. Bo will do that. 

I just don’t see Tigers trading Torkelson, former #1 pick, only 26 years old, it’s not like they have a great young 1b/DH pushing him out. He can mentor McGonigle/ Max Clark as they come up. Still has 3 years left. IDK I just don’t see it. He is a nice piece for their quick rebuild…. Is there something I’m missing? I know he and Riley Greene both have a ton of swing and miss, maybe tigers wanting a different bat profile?
 

I can see reasons why and why not.

Torkelson is 26, makes $4mill and has two more years until free agency.  His career OPS+ is 101, making him a league average hitter.  
 

But his StatCast page is surprisingly red, and this quite often carries greater future implications than past stats.  And if I know it, certainly Detroit does too.

But his last two years could cost Detroit $10-15mill.  Are they willing to see if he plays up to his skill in that time?  If they lose Skubal, what is their plan for 2027 and beyond?

BTV gives him a surplus value of $2.4mill, similar to that of Tyler Samaniego.  I doubt they make that trade, BTW.  But I think Boston could get their attention. I’d deal Bello here yesterday, but not sure about Detroit...

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Ive argued his AAV is not bad for him as a pitcher, but he’s not anywhere close to the Sox top 5 starters.  That Early hasn’t caught him yet in fWAR or bWAR yet is not the pro-Bello argument you’re posting it as since Early still has barely more than half the IP.

I wanted to trade Bello last off-season along with Duran.  And that was before he was demoted.  And even this year Ive wanted him to move to the bullpen and be the RP Breslow should have acquired last November. While Bello insists he is a starter, I don’t know how obstinate he really is, so I’m not going to yet claim he’s being difficult.   But I’d move him.

Murphy was a close BTV matchup, and I think his hitting since 2023 is a product of injuries and losing playing time to Drake Baldwin.  The actual BTV matchup was Murphy (whose surplus value is a couple mill lower than Duran’s) plus AJ Smith-Shaw er for Bello, which I do if AJSS is healthy or close to it.

Id also move Bello to Detroit for Spencer Torkelson yesterday.  And I’d move him to the pitching-depleted Cubs if there was a march, and I don’t think they give up Shaw in that trade.

Bello is outside the Sox top 5?starterscwhen everyone is healthy.  If he wants to try relieving, great.  But he is absolutely movable and the biggest obstacle is probably his contract…

Give Early the rest of the season this year and his fWAR will look like Bello's previous few years. Bello is a back end starter, which you said "was perfectly fine for him to settle into at 9M." If it was fine for him to be paid as a back end guy at 9M in 24, why dump him now? He's been a guy that you can rely on to be out there just about 30 G every year unlike the majority of pitchers. 

Everyone is NOT healthy and Gray will not be returning next season. I'm also not sold on Jake Bennett as a starter. I think the rotation is Crochet/Suarez/Tolle/Early/Bello. We've seen Bello be successful this season. The Sox just have to unlock whatever is going on with him.