Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, harmony said:

Any interest in righthand-hitting outfielder Rob Refsnyder, who posted an OPS+ of 125 in 936 plate appearances with the Red Sox 2022-25?

The Seattle Mariners could make Refsnyder expendable.😉

Straight-up for Yoshida and we have a deal.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, harmony said:

Any interest in righthand-hitting outfielder Rob Refsnyder, who posted an OPS+ of 125 in 936 plate appearances with the Red Sox 2022-25?

The Seattle Mariners could make Refsnyder expendable.😉

Sure: Yoshida and 80% of his contract- one for one.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Straight-up for Yoshida and we have a deal.

Just saw this...lol.

[notin]

On 5/20/2026 at 4:11 PM, moonslav59 said:

Why'd we trade Brasier?

Why'd as team like LAD trade for him?

(Hint: they hoped he'd do better.)

The Sox didnt trade Brasier anywhere.  He was released…

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sure: Yoshida and 80% of his contract- one for one.

If a team who is 29th in the league scoring runs can’t use Masa For Mayor why would anyone else want him?🤭

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

The Dox didnt trade Brasier anywhere.  He was released…

Oh yes. How about the Kike trade?

[notin]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Oh yes. How about the Kike trade?

What about it?

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If a team who is 29th in the league scoring runs can’t use Masa For Mayor why would anyone else want him?🤭

Because no MLB teams judge players solely on their first 200 plate appearances?

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, notin said:

What about it?

The team who takes players doing crappy have hopes.

The original point.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The team who takes players doing crappy have hopes.

The original point.

 

Kike wasn’t better with the Dodgers after the Sox traded him there.  His best season far and away was with Boston.

He just rode along everyone else’s coattails to get rings in LA…

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Kike wasn’t better with the Dodgers after the Sox traded him there.

.731 vs .599 was better.

[harmony]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Straight-up for Yoshida and we have a deal.

Masataka Yoshida would represent an expensive downgrade from current Mariners at Yoshida's positions.

2026 OPS+ (PA) through Friday's games:

Masataka Yoshida 99 OPS+ (109 PA)

Dominic Canzone 121 OPS+ (119 PA)

Luke Raley 149 OPS+ (137 PA)

Randy Arozarena 149 OP+ (218 PA)

Julio Rodriguez 117 OPS+ (226 PA)

Yoshida has $30 million remaining on his contract, including $18 million in 2027. His closest Seattle roster comps are Raley, who has a 2026 salary of $2.05 million and two more years of team control, and Canzone, who earns the league minimum this season with three more years of team control.

[moonslav59]

Looks like a great trade!

[urban cowboy]

On 5/21/2026 at 7:54 AM, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Duran's current value at 16. That seems about right. A few days ago, I might have said it's bit too high.

The have Anthony 52, Rafaela 48, Tolle 47, Arias 46, Mayer 45, Abreu 44, Early 39, Crochet 38

Narvaez 26, Witherspoon 17

Duran & Durbin 16, Suarez 14, Eyanson & Soto 13, Phillips 11, Azocar & Gonzales 10

Slaten 9, Godbout 8, Cespedes 7 Valera & Romy 6, Holobetz & Bennett 5

-37 Story (owed $48M) In theory, we could trade him and "save" 9M to be even.

-19 Yoshida (owed $31M) We could maybe "save" $12M trading him.

-15 Bello (owed $49M) They say he will bring $34M value to his team!

-5 Sandoval (owed $9M) "save $4M?" LOL

-4 Gray (owed $18M)

-3 Chapman, Houck & IKF

 -2 Crawford & Whitlock, -1 Casas & Oviedo

 

 

I'm not familiar with BTV. Why is Chapman negative? He could be the key to a contender, no?

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, urban cowboy said:

I'm not familiar with BTV. Why is Chapman negative? He could be the key to a contender, no?

Baseball Trade Values calculates a player's net value based strictly on their contracts and their projected WARs.  It can be useful, but you're right about Chapman, he would fetch a pretty good return.  BTV doesn't take into account things like how much a team trying to win it all would give up for an elite closer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not opposed to trading off expiring contracts, but skeptical that Breslow can get commensurate value in return from actual contenders. Why would a team that is going for it give up a legitimate big league power bat or an All-Star hitter not whiffer... because those are what this franchise needs in multiple spots in the batting order today, tomorrow and next season. 

We don't need more low-level prospects to overhype for another half decade and then ruin their swings by ordering them to pull their heads and step in the bucket.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not opposed to trading off expiring contracts, but skeptical that Breslow can get commensurate value in return from actual contenders. Why would a team that is going for it give up a legitimate big league power bat or an All-Star hitter not whiffer... because those are what this franchise needs in multiple spots in the batting order today, tomorrow and next season. 

We don't need more low-level prospects to overhype for another half decade and then ruin their swings by ordering them to pull their heads and step in the bucket.

 

They won’t, which is why the Dustin May trade was so questionable.

If the Sox unload expiring/optionable contracts (Chapman, Gray, Whitlock, IKF, Coulombe), they’re getting prospects back.  Maybe not A-ball ones, but prospects.

But those prospects might be fluppable for other needs.

And yes, IKF is tradable.  He was a deadline deal as recently as last year.  And it seems that speedy pinch runner is a more common deadline target than I realized…

[notin]

21 hours ago, harmony said:

Any interest in righthand-hitting outfielder Rob Refsnyder, who posted an OPS+ of 125 in 936 plate appearances with the Red Sox 2022-25?

The Seattle Mariners could make Refsnyder expendable.😉

Why would the Red Sox want another player in the midst of a career worst season?

[notin]

On 5/21/2026 at 12:38 PM, Behindenemylines said:

I think the Durbin experiment is over. As good as the D has been, the O has been terrible. It's amazing that the Brewers won trades with the Sox for young controllable pitching two years in a row. If the Brewers call up Sox about a young pitcher in the Sox system, they need to hang up the phone.

So trades are judged at the 200PA/50 IP limits now?  Wait - are we even there yet?

Durbin has an OPS+ of 86 through 668 PA at age 26.  While not elite company, three former Sox secondbasemen have been right around that level of performance at that age.  
 

Mark Loretta, who had an OPS+ of 86 after 708 PA and only briefly played in Boston as part of his 15 year, two-time All Star career that included a Silver Slugger. (But surprisingly no Gold Gloves)

David Eckstein broke in at age 26 with an OPS+ of 89 and weak SS defense.  But he was part of two World Series champion teams, even taking home the WS MVP in 2001.

Freddy Sánchez - inarguably the least successful of the three, not even taking over as a full time starter until he was 27.  Of course he did somehow manage to win a batting title.

 

That’s three reasons to not give up on Durbin.  Even if he’s just the next Freddy Sánchez, Freddy did have some good years…

[notin]

Two BTV-friendly deals that make sense in one way, but also don’t. 
 

Bello (-18 -actually dropped to -22.2 but SF isn’t backing off on that) to SFG for SS Willie Adames (-18.3).  SF is pitching poor and has a crowded INF.  They’re in last place, and Adames sees his salary jump from $13mill this year to $31mill per for the next 5.   Adames could bring so RHH pop to an anemic Sox lineup, especially if he is already past his historically slow starts at the plate.

The downside - Adames is not a good SS, with less range than Sylvester Stallone.  He does have a strong arm, so 3b is a possibility.  His contract could be dangerous and most definitely will not age well, putting him in the exact opposite position of Bello.  If the Sox do move on Adames, do so with a different bad contract

Trade 2.  Same teams.  Kyson Witherspoon (-16.7) straight up for INF Casey Schmitt (-16.3) .  Schmitt is a RHH StatCast hero at the plate slugging over .500 and being used mostly at DH, but capable of any infield role (although I recommend limiting his time at SS).  Former first round pick could be expendable in SF with the emergence of Bryce Eldridge threatening his time at DH.

Downside - mostly for SF.  While they are having a bad season, dealing for prospects in May/June is some seriously negative PR, and not a message to fans teams with large payrolls like to send.  They might still have tickets available.

It does mean giving up on a first round pick quickly for Boston, but Schmitt was also a first round pick.  

 

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

.731 vs .599 was better.

Hernandez played more than one half season in Boston.  He was a 5 WAR player his first season there - something he never accomplished in LA and likely never will…

[notin]

21 hours ago, Old Red said:

If a team who is 29th in the league scoring runs can’t use Masa For Mayor why would anyone else want him?🤭

Are you seriously suggesting Mayer has no trade value and no other teams would have interest if Boston made him available?
 

I look forward to your non-answer…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Baseball Trade Values calculates a player's net value based strictly on their contracts and their projected WARs.  It can be useful, but you're right about Chapman, he would fetch a pretty good return.  BTV doesn't take into account things like how much a team trying to win it all would give up for an elite closer.

 

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Baseball Trade Values calculates a player's net value based strictly on their contracts and their projected WARs.  It can be useful, but you're right about Chapman, he would fetch a pretty good return.  BTV doesn't take into account things like how much a team trying to win it all would give up for an elite closer.

The problem is with WAR and how it treats high leverage 9th innings the same as some guy coming into a 10-0 games to pitch one inning.

Simply put, Chapman is worth more than his WAR and likely his projected WAR, too.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

The problem is with WAR and how it treats high leverage 9th innings the same as some guy coming into a 10-0 games to pitch one inning.

Simply put, Chapman is worth more than his WAR and likely his projected WAR, too.

Bit of a Strawman argument there.

Not all save situations are high leverage.  Not all non-save sutuations are low leverage.  The counter argument is - would you consider protecting a 3-run lead wuth the 7-8-9 hitters coming up to be “high leverage”?   Is one inning of a 3-run lead high leverage ever?  
 

What about coming in with runners on base (which closers rarely do) and the heart of the order due up, but it’s the 7th or 8th? Is that low leverage?

[harmony]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Why would the Red Sox want another player in the midst of a career worst season?

It’s considered buying low instead of paying a premium for player experiencing a highly productive season.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Bit of a Strawman argument there.

Not all save situations are high leverage.  Not all non-save sutuations are low leverage.  The counter argument is - would you consider protecting a 3-run lead wuth the 7-8-9 hitters coming up to be “high leverage”?   Is one inning of a 3-run lead high leverage ever?  
What about coming in with runners on base (which closers rarely do) and the heart of the order due up, but it’s the 7th or 8th? Is that low leverage?

How is it strawman?

I fully realize many other innings have high leverage situations, too.

To come in for a save situation is nearly pre-determined to be high leverage. Chapman pitches in more high leverage situations than others, so to me his IP count more than others.

PAs in High-Medium-Low Leverage

37-17-14 Chapman (54 High)

31-27-20 Whitlock (40%)

15-13-9 Slaten (40%)

13-5 18 Coulombe (36%)

28-15-42 Weissert (33%)

21-16-34 Kelly (30%)

17-26-68 Moran (15%)

5-10-118 Watson (4%)

Late & Close

85% (58 out of 68) Chapman

76% (59 out of 78) Whitlock

 

73% (27 out of 37) Slaten

28% (10 out of 36) Coulombe

28% (26 out of 93) Moran

27% (23 out of 85) Weissert

27% (19 out of 71) Kelly

8% (11 out of 133) Watson

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

It’s considered buying low instead of paying a premium for player experiencing a highly productive season.

The Sox have no use for Refsnyder.

Buying low for what? Hoping he turns it around in August?  This is a player on a short term here.  When it’s a Mariner player, his .355 OPS can be ignored because he’s been “highly productive” at some point.  But the Boston players only have immediate stats considered for comparison to the career Seattle bench players.

When teams in the postseason hunt start pawning off rostered Major League players, it’s not because those players have too much usefulness left.

The main reason you’re thinking they should move Refsnyder is because he sucks this year.  Why not lead with that?  
 

Exactly…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How is it strawman?

I fully realize many other innings have high leverage situations, too.

To come in for a save situation is nearly pre-determined to be high leverage. Chapman pitches in more high leverage situations than others, so to me his IP count more than others.

PAs in High-Medium-Low Leverage

37-17-14 Chapman (54 High)

31-27-20 Whitlock (40%)

15-13-9 Slaten (40%)

13-5 18 Coulombe (36%)

28-15-42 Weissert (33%)

21-16-34 Kelly (30%)

17-26-68 Moran (15%)

5-10-118 Watson (4%)

Late & Close

85% (58 out of 68) Chapman

76% (59 out of 78) Whitlock

 

73% (27 out of 37) Slaten

28% (10 out of 36) Coulombe

28% (26 out of 93) Moran

27% (23 out of 85) Weissert

27% (19 out of 71) Kelly

8% (11 out of 133) Watson

 

 

Youre post only mentioned high leverage closer innings to low leverage innings from other relievers, as if thats all either faces.  Non-closing relievers can experience as many high leverage innings as closers.  Sometimes more.

All Save situations might be listed as “high leverage” but that’s actually ridiculous.   Theyre simply not all made equal…

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Youre post only mentioned high leverage closer innings to low leverage innings from other relievers, as if thats all either faces.  Non-closing relievers can experience as many high leverage innings as closers.  Sometimes more.

All Save situations might be listed as “high leverage” but that’s actually ridiculous.   Theyre simply not all made equal…

Nowhere did I say all save situations are high leverage, but most are.

Chapman clearly pitches more high leverage and Late & Close as any other Sox pitcher and way more than the average of all Sox pitchers not names Chapman.

Most closers face a much higher proportion of high leverage/late & close IP than the norm, but WAR only counts all IP as equal and results. It's a flaw in the system. Do you disagree?

Most closer have a higher percentage of high leverage IP.

Yes, a 7th inning high leverage situation where a RP'er comes in with bases loaded may be more important than a 9th inning save situation, where a closer comes in to start the inning. The high leverage and late & close data is not perfect for that reason, but overall, the numbers I posted tell a story that Chapman's IP'd are more valuable than others. Way more than some.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nowhere did I say all save situations are high leverage, but most are.

Chapman clearly pitches more high leverage and Late & Close as any other Sox pitcher and way more than the average of all Sox pitchers not names Chapman.

Most closers face a much higher proportion of high leverage/late & close IP than the norm, but WAR only counts all IP as equal and results. It's a flaw in the system. Do you disagree?

Most closer have a higher percentage of high leverage IP.

Yes, a 7th inning high leverage situation where a RP'er comes in with bases loaded may be more important than a 9th inning save situation, where a closer comes in to start the inning. The high leverage and late & close data is not perfect for that reason, but overall, the numbers I posted tell a story that Chapman's IP'd are more valuable than others. Way more than some.

Leverage Index is a factor in WAR

https://library.fangraphs.com/war/calculating-war-pitchers/