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Posted
34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for signing 30+ pitchers to 5 year deals.

Just because Lester did well, doesn't mean all of them do.

Ok you lost me.

Your premise was to avoid those 1-2 year flier deals and sign one pitcher to a big deal, right? But now you’re opposed to it?   
 

Most free agent pitchers are 30 or older.  Any worthwhile free agent under 30 seems unlikely to settle for a mere 5 years (source: history).  And very few free agent pitchers have as many as 5 good years left.  Hopefully Suarez does, and his non-reliance on velocity might help but it’s not any sort of guarantee…

Community Moderator
Posted
11 minutes ago, notin said:

Year two of an 8 year deal that costs more than all the Sox one year fliers combined…

🤩

Posted
6 minutes ago, notin said:

Ok you lost me.

Your premise was to avoid those 1-2 year flier deals and sign one pitcher to a big deal, right? But now you’re opposed to it?   
 

Most free agent pitchers are 30 or older.  Any worthwhile free agent under 30 seems unlikely to settle for a mere 5 years (source: history).  And very few free agent pitchers have as many as 5 good years left.  Hopefully Suarez does, and his non-reliance on velocity might help but it’s not any sort of guarantee…

Well, I'd rather we sign a 30 year old to 5 years than sign 5 34-36 year olds to 1 year deals- five times, but there are chances to sign under 30 guys, too.

Community Moderator
Posted
4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, I'd rather we sign a 30 year old to 5 years than sign 5 34-36 year olds to 1 year deals- five times, but there are chances to sign under 30 guys, too.

You want a high ceiling ace for 5 years over a string of low ceiling 4th starters??? WTH?

Posted
5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You want a high ceiling ace for 5 years over a string of low ceiling 4th starters??? WTH?

I never said ace. You don't get an ace at $10M x 5 years, but it's more likely you get a better pitcher than 5 x $10M/1 yr guys.  That's my theory.

It's not a sure bet.

Posted
3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not for signing 30+ pitchers to 5 year deals.

Just because Lester did well, doesn't mean all of them do.

Lester isn't the slam-dunk that folks think he is.  He cost $155M for 12.2 bWAR.  He's worth it because they won a WS, but in his final 4 years, he averaged 1 bWAR/season.

Posted
2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I never said ace. You don't get an ace at $10M x 5 years, but it's more likely you get a better pitcher than 5 x $10M/1 yr guys.  That's my theory.

It's not a sure bet.

It's not an either/or situation.  You need an ace + a #1 + a #2.  If you can do that, you can add a couple of aging league-average SPs for $10M.

Community Moderator
Posted
26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Lester isn't the slam-dunk that folks think he is.  He cost $155M for 12.2 bWAR.  He's worth it because they won a WS, but in his final 4 years, he averaged 1 bWAR/season.

Per FanGraphs, he wasn't quite worth it (135M value), but I think the Cubbies take that contract every time since it helped win the WS.

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