Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[notin]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think the Red Sox are at or near the top of the tier 2 MLB teams. WIthout Contreras, we may lose an entire tier and be more comparable to the tier 3 teams (Rangers, Royals, Astros Reds)

The Sox outscored the Rangers by 100 runs last year and the Royals by 130.  Do you really think Boston’s offense has dropped off that much? Or that either Texas or KC has done enough to significantly close that gap?  The biggest offensive additions these teams made were Brandon Nimmo (Rangers) and Isaac Collins (Royals)

Or that either team has equal or better SP?

It occurs to me that  most people saying the Sox are going to be worse than all these other teams are not actually taking into account  those other teams…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It occurs to me that  most people saying the Sox are going to be worse than all these other teams are not actually taking into account  those other teams…

That's been a point I've been making for a while.

We know our team inside and out. It's easy to concentrate on the faults or be hypercritical.

I don't see how many other AL teams got better, especially those that were good in 2025.

The O's did, but they sucked last year.

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Duran is the worst of the four OF but Rafaela-unless things have changed for him-is much worse with a bat in his hands. We actually have five OF if you want to stick Masa in LF occasionally. I suspect that Duran will get at least 20% of the OF starts since Breslow didn’t do his job and trade one of them for a good IF.

Rafaela is going into his age 25 season this year. Duran's age 25 season was '22 where he had a 77 wRC+ and was pretty bad. Rafaela has steadily improved each year since being called up. There's a nonzero chance Rafaela hits as well as Duran does this season. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

The Sox outscored the Rangers by 100 runs last year and the Royals by 130.  Do you really think Boston’s offense has dropped off that much? Or that either Texas or KC has done enough to significantly close that gap?  The biggest offensive additions these teams made were Brandon Nimmo (Rangers) and Isaac Collins (Royals)

Or that either team has equal or better SP?

It occurs to me that  most people saying the Sox are going to be worse than all these other teams are not actually taking into account  those other teams…

I don't see the offense dropping off all that much at all, if any. Contreras replaces Bregman. Durbin will outhit last year's 2b. As long as the other players don't fall off, they should be fine. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela is going into his age 25 season this year. Duran's age 25 season was '22 where he had a 77 wRC+ and was pretty bad. Rafaela has steadily improved each year since being called up. There's a nonzero chance Rafaela hits as well as Duran does this season. 

RAF Man most likely isn’t going to hit as well as Duran, Abreu, and Anthony, but IMO he doesn’t have to. 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't see the offense dropping off all that much at all, if any. Contreras replaces Bregman. Durbin will outhit last year's 2b. As long as the other players don't fall off, they should be fine. 

Agreed, but these two additions don't account for the nearly 550 PAs lost from Devers and Refsnyder. Anthony could get 300 more PAs, and Abreu will start hitting vs LHPs, so there is still some doubts.

I do think the Chicken Little cry-outs are a bit overboard, but not without a bit of merit.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but these two additions don't account for the nearly 550 PAs lost from Devers and Refsnyder. Anthony could get 300 more PAs, and Abreu will start hitting vs LHPs, so there is still some doubts.

I do think the Chicken Little cry-outs are a bit overboard, but not without a bit of merit.

Chicken Little cry-outs? Wow!🤭

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but these two additions don't account for the nearly 550 PAs lost from Devers and Refsnyder. Anthony could get 300 more PAs, and Abreu will start hitting vs LHPs, so there is still some doubts.

I do think the Chicken Little cry-outs are a bit overboard, but not without a bit of merit.

You believe Casas is coming back too? Ref had a 838 OPS. Do you think Casas could come close to 210 PA and 830ish OPS? 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Chicken Little cry-outs? Wow!🤭

We love nicknames around here, don't we folks! 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We love nicknames around here, don't we folks! 

Players 100%. Owners on down 100%.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

John Heyman on the Sox' O: "I feel like the bottom third of the lineup is gonna be a challenge, and you're in a really tough division when you got Toronto, the Yankees and the Orioles, all of whom have way better offenses than you do."

Positive Poster: "They haven't faced our two starting rotations or our bullpen led by Jeremy Wu-Yelland and Tyler Samaniego!"

Way better? Rut-roh...

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Chicken Little cry-outs? Wow!🤭

I knew you'd like that one.

I'd call projecting 4th place, because we added Contreras not Alonso is worse than "Chicken Little."

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You believe Casas is coming back too? 

No. I only said he could be "the key," if he does.

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ref had a 838 OPS. Do you think Casas could come close to 210 PA and 830ish OPS? 

If he stays healthy- bif if- he could hit .790 to .840, yes.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

We love nicknames around here, don't we folks! 

It was used as a verb not as a nickname, but a certain poster who rhymes with Fred fits the name.

[FredLynn]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You believe Casas is coming back too? Ref had a 838 OPS. Do you think Casas could come close to 210 PA and 830ish OPS? 

There is a non zero chance that Casas comes back . I think his career OPS is over .800. I haven’t given up on him . The question would become where to put him. 

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, notin said:

The Sox outscored the Rangers by 100 runs last year and the Royals by 130.  Do you really think Boston’s offense has dropped off that much? Or that either Texas or KC has done enough to significantly close that gap?  The biggest offensive additions these teams made were Brandon Nimmo (Rangers) and Isaac Collins (Royals)

Or that either team has equal or better SP?

It occurs to me that  most people saying the Sox are going to be worse than all these other teams are not actually taking into account  those other teams…

To be clear, I only meant that with the contreras acquisition - it feels to me that we are comparable to tier 2 MLB teams, with a half step on most of them (Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Cubs) and had we not aquired Contreras, the team would feel more like a bottom T2 team and the teams that we would be comparable to (while having an advantage over) would be like the Astros, Brewers, Rangers, Royals.....

And this doesnt imply that we are a contreras injury away from being where we sould had we never got contreras, because the tiers are based on going into the season with no attrition but with future attrition expected
 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't see the offense dropping off all that much at all, if any. Contreras replaces Bregman. Durbin will outhit last year's 2b. As long as the other players don't fall off, they should be fine. 

The offense that ended the year last year, was not fine. It was pathetic.  However, that was after injries to Roman, Mayer, Bregman (even though he ame back, he came a different player), no durbin, Casas.

I think we should expect some injuries, not as bad as lat year, and whether or not we will be "fine" entering next playoffs will depend on injuries, in-season acquistions, and what one personally means by "fine".  Of course, fine offense for a playoff team is a higher bar.  Because if going into the playoffs you say offense is fine , I would think that means can keep up wth most other playoff teams.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I knew you'd like that one.

I'd call projecting 4th place, because we added Contreras not Alonso is worse than "Chicken Little."

Ive seen plenty of neutral / no dog in the fight sources predict fourth place.  Its not  chicken little.  Its not optimistic, but Ive seen it too many times to call it out as nonsensical.  Still, smart money is on third because most likely outcomes are:

Yanks, Red Sox, Jay, Orioles, Rays
Yanks,  Jay, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays
Yanks, Orioles, Rred Sox, Jays, Rays
Yanks, Jay, Orioles, Red Sox, Rays

Not saying we cant come in first (or last), just saying that to me, the four final ALE standings presented above are more liely than any other outcome, and 2/4 of those have us in 3rd vs 1/4 in first and 1/4 in second.

Just law of averages.  If you flip 2 coins, you are most likely to get one heads and one tails (because 2/4 outcomes for 1 ofeach (HT, TH) vs 1/4 for HH and 1/4 for TT)

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't see the offense dropping off all that much at all, if any. Contreras replaces Bregman. Durbin will outhit last year's 2b. As long as the other players don't fall off, they should be fine. 

And last year’s team was carried by pitching.  There is a good chance this year’s pitching is actually better.

I would like another quality arm (or two) in that bullpen.  But I’m fine if they are Crawford and/or Tolle…

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

John Heyman on the Sox' O: "I feel like the bottom third of the lineup is gonna be a challenge, and you're in a really tough division when you got Toronto, the Yankees and the Orioles, all of whom have way better offenses than you do."

Positive Poster: "They haven't faced our two starting rotations or our bullpen led by Jeremy Wu-Yelland and Tyler Samaniego!"

Way better? Rut-roh...

The bullpen is led by Wu-Yellend? That guy needs a swirly. 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Ive seen plenty of neutral / no dog in the fight sources predict fourth place.  Its not  chicken little.  Its not optimistic, but Ive seen it too many times to call it out as nonsensical.  Still, smart money is on third because most likely outcomes are:

Yanks, Red Sox, Jay, Orioles, Rays
Yanks,  Jay, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays
Yanks, Orioles, Rred Sox, Jays, Rays
Yanks, Jay, Orioles, Red Sox, Rays

Not saying we cant come in first (or last), just saying that to me, the four final ALE standings presented above are more liely than any other outcome, and 2/4 of those have us in 3rd vs 1/4 in first and 1/4 in second.

Just law of averages.  If you flip 2 coins, you are most likely to get one heads and one tails (because 2/4 outcomes for 1 ofeach (HT, TH) vs 1/4 for HH and 1/4 for TT)

So the Yankees are a lock for first?

Fangraphs has them third.

The problem with the AL East is the top four teams could finish in any order and could all make the postseason. Not likely, but possible.  A lot will come down, unfortunately, to injuries…

[notin]

39 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

To be clear, I only meant that with the contreras acquisition - it feels to me that we are comparable to tier 2 MLB teams, with a half step on most of them (Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Cubs) and had we not aquired Contreras, the team would feel more like a bottom T2 team and the teams that we would be comparable to (while having an advantage over) would be like the Astros, Brewers, Rangers, Royals.....

And this doesnt imply that we are a contreras injury away from being where we sould had we never got contreras, because the tiers are based on going into the season with no attrition but with future attrition expected
 

Who do you have as the ther 1 teams in the AL besides the Yankees?

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The offense that ended the year last year, was not fine. It was pathetic.  However, that was after injries to Roman, Mayer, Bregman (even though he ame back, he came a different player), no durbin, Casas.

I think we should expect some injuries, not as bad as lat year, and whether or not we will be "fine" entering next playoffs will depend on injuries, in-season acquistions, and what one personally means by "fine".  Of course, fine offense for a playoff team is a higher bar.  Because if going into the playoffs you say offense is fine , I would think that means can keep up wth most other playoff teams.

Sox were 8th in runs scored from July 1 on. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

And last year’s team was carried by pitching.  There is a good chance this year’s pitching is actually better.

I would like another quality arm (or two) in that bullpen.  But I’m fine if they are Crawford and/or Tolle…

Unsure where Kutter is physically right now. If he's ready to go in the pen, I'm more than fine with it. Tolle still had some work to do so probably starts in AAA then maybe pushes Moran off the 40 man after being called up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

There is a non zero chance that Casas comes back . I think his career OPS is over .800. I haven’t given up on him . The question would become where to put him. 

If he's hitting homers with an .800 OPS again, I'd put Casas 3rd in the batting order... after Roman-Durbin and ahead of Contreras

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Unsure where Kutter is physically right now. If he's ready to go in the pen, I'm more than fine with it. Tolle still had some work to do so probably starts in AAA then maybe pushes Moran off the 40 man after being called up.

Why would Tolle push Moran off the 40 when both are already on the 40?  I doubt they release Moran just to promote Tolle to the back end of the bullpen.

i could see, say, Hayden Mullins pushing Moran off the 40 at some point. 
 

If Crawford is not fully healthy and Tolle is in the minors (and the Sox use a 5 man rotation that ends with Sandoval), who gets those last two bullpen slots ?  Kelly and Uberstine?

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

So the Yankees are a lock for first?

Fangraphs has them third.

The problem with the AL East is the top four teams could finish in any order and could all make the postseason. Not likely, but possible.  A lot will come down, unfortunately, to injuries…

Not a lock, just that I think they are most likely to win.  Havent seen something by fangraphs to the contrary, but I do see that their projected standings are only like 1-2 games against other AL teams.

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If he's hitting homers with an .800 OPS again, I'd put Casas 3rd in the batting order... after Roman-Durbin and ahead of Contreras

And where would you play him? DH?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would Tolle push Moran off the 40 when both are already on the 40?  I doubt they release Moran just to promote Tolle to the back end of the bullpen.

i could see, say, Hayden Mullins pushing Moran off the 40 at some point. 
 

If Crawford is not fully healthy and Tolle is in the minors (and the Sox use a 5 man rotation that ends with Sandoval), who gets those last two bullpen slots ?  Kelly and Uberstine?

Tolle would be in AAA. Moran doesn't have options.