Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[Hugh2]

Alright, time to place your hypothetical bets.  The prize???? bragging rights. 

[Hugh2]

I set the poll to close on opening day, so people are free to change their minds as players get hurt or show up in BSOHL in ST. 

[mvp 78]

90-72

One game better than last season. A winning % the franchise has only done once before in its history: 2011. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That .5 of a win will come on half of a walk-off home run by Willson on a rising liner that the Green Monster eats and spits back out...

... the ball will bounce back over the leftfielder, but Contreras will just beat it to second base safely.

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

90-72

One game better than last season. A winning % the franchise has only done once before in its history: 2011. 

What a wild, weird, strange, and disappointing season that was.  Never seen a team do such a 180 before

To me, they were the most talented bad team ever.  On paper they were really good, they just went out and got AGON and Crawford and still had Lester/Becket at the top of their rotation. 

They lost the first 6 games of the year and finished April 11-15

They went on to finish 7-20 in September, and miss the playoffs by 1 game.

Everything in between? for 2/3 of the MLB season they were the most dominant team in MLB.  For the majority of the MLB season they were on pace to easily be a 100 win team (106 wins).  But they started off slow, and completely fell off a cliff in September. 

They looked like the 2025 Dodgers by the end of August, and by the end of the year they looked like the 2026 Athletics. 

[mvp 78]

2011 was about the starting pitching just falling apart: Lackey, Wakefield, Weiland, Miller, Matsuzaka.

They ran through a bunch of guys that were just awful that year. If Buchholz pitches a full season, they get into the playoffs. 

[Hugh2]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2011 was about the starting pitching just falling apart: Lackey, Wakefield, Weiland, Miller, Matsuzaka.

They ran through a bunch of guys that were just awful that year. If Buchholz pitches a full season, they get into the playoffs. 

I mean, the offense did average 2.9 runs per game in September.   But I do agree the pitching was a major major part of that collapse. 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I mean, the offense did average 2.9 runs per game in September.   But I do agree the pitching was a major major part of that collapse. 

Recheck your math.

They scored 5.4 runs per game in September. (146 runs)

They gave up 6.4 runs per game. (172 runs)

 

[JoeBrady]

92.  And, if we win the division, we go to the WS.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Buchholz pitches a full season, they get into the playoffs. 

2011 was the last time Fred was right about something.  He said that Buchholz injury was such that he could have returned in September, had they treated it right.  But I believe the RS crack medical staff said 'we don't MRI boo-boos'.

[harmony]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

92.  And, if we win the division, we go to the WS.

Like the Patriots, the Red Sox will need to get past Seattle.😉😉😉

Best wishes to the Red Sox and Mariners this season.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Recheck your math.

They scored 5.4 runs per game in September. (146 runs)

They gave up 6.4 runs per game. (172 runs)

 

5.4 of those September RPG were just by Derek Lowe…

[Hugh2]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Recheck your math.

They scored 5.4 runs per game in September. (146 runs)

They gave up 6.4 runs per game. (172 runs)

 

Ok this is what I get for trusting AI

Interesting enough the offense had a few blowouts, they scored 18 runs a game twice tha month.

you take out those two games the average drops by a whole run scored. 4.4

I’m not denying the pitching was a large part of the collapse, I don’t even want to argue that it wasn’t the main cause.  But the offense was t exactly showing up either

[FredLynn]

23 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

92.  And, if we win the division, we go to the WS.

I'd take that wager-ie, win the division and go to the WS. Interested?

[JoeBrady]

41 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I'd take that wager-ie, win the division and go to the WS. Interested?

Let's hear what your win total is and we can discuss it.  I am eagerly looking forward to your non-response.

[Larry Cook]

Last year I thought 87 wins. 
 

this year I am thinking 91 wins. 
 

crochet - 15

suarez - 12

gray - 8

bello - 14

Oviedo - 5

Cutter - 4

early - 5

tolle - 5

Whitlock - 4

chapman - 4

weisset - 3

slaten - 3 

others combined - 8

 

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

I'd take that wager-ie, win the division and go to the WS. Interested?

So brave!

[Duran Is The Man]

83-79. we don't have enough offense and i think Mayer, Story, Casas and half the pitching staff spend significant time on the IL.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Let's hear what your win total is and we can discuss it.  I am eagerly looking forward to your non-response.

I’ll take that as another (wise) refusal on your part.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So brave!

I’m batting 1000 vs Brady. My winning streak continues….

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

83-79. we don't have enough offense and i think Mayer, Story, Casas and half the pitching staff spend significant time on the IL.

Do you see the Sox having more key injuries than the Yanks, Jays and Tigers?

[Duran Is The Man]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you see the Sox having more key injuries than the Yanks, Jays and Tigers?

we always seem too... don't know why this year would be any different. would be nice to go thru a season without several of our key players go down. and i think that's what it is going to take with such an impotent lineup.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I’ll take that as another (wise) refusal on your part.

So are you going to be the only one in here to not post a win total?

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

we always seem too... don't know why this year would be any different. would be nice to go thru a season without several of our key players go down. and i think that's what it is going to take with such an impotent lineup.

We had our share of SP'er injuries, and the Casas injury was no surprise, but other teams had a lot, too.

I think we led the league in IL placements and were second in days on the IL, so I guess you are right.

Losing Crawford for the full season hurt. Houck was probably hurt to start the year or even to end 2024, and his loss hurt, too. Casas and Sandoval's were known or somewhat expected. Losing Bregman, who never really seemed to return to form and Anthony hurt, badly. Shorter term injuries to Abreu, Narvaez, Slaten and others didn't help.

Going into 2025, I only see 3 key guys as significant injury risk players: Casas, Story and Mayer. (Sandoval, too, but I'm not sure how "key" he is.)

The Yanks have Cole, Rodon and Schmidt beginning the season on the IL and a bunch of aging players who might be due.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We had our share of SP'er injuries, and the Casas injury was no surprise, but other teams had a lot, too.

I think we led the league in IL placements and were second in days on the IL, so I guess you are right.

Losing Crawford for the full season hurt. Houck was probably hurt to start the year or even to end 2024, and his loss hurt, too. Casas and Sandoval's were known or somewhat expected. Losing Bregman, who never really seemed to return to form and Anthony hurt, badly. Shorter term injuries to Abreu, Narvaez, Slaten and others didn't help.

Going into 2025, I only see 3 key guys as significant injury risk players: Casas, Story and Mayer. (Sandoval, too, but I'm not sure how "key" he is.)

The Yanks have Cole, Rodon and Schmidt beginning the season on the IL and a bunch of aging players who might be due.

i can see the Yankees winning a lot of 11-9 games and us losing a lot of 2-1 games.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i can see the Yankees winning a lot of 11-9 games and us losing a lot of 2-1 games.

Yes, and us winning 3-2 games while they lose 8-7.

[jad]

i'd post a number, but I'm afraid someone might do something unfair, like offer someone more money than we do, or spend  more and ruin not only our season but baseball generally.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Home runs don't mean more wins in the regular season.

As a teen it was so fun watching the 1977 Red Sox blasting HRs all summer. Boston led the majors with 213 as the only team to hit over 200. Five guys hit at least 26 homers (more than team leader Story in '25), including AL champ Rice, Scott, Hobson, Yaz and FIsk. They didn't make the playoffs.

Flash forward 30 years later to the most underrated world champions in Red Sox history: the '07 SOX only hit 166 home runs. The MLB average was 165; 17 clubs went yard more than Boston. Ortiz cranked 35, but Mike Lowell and Manny only had 21 and 20. Other Sox legends: Varitek 17, Youkilis 16, Pedroia 8, Cora 3, Kevin Cash 0.

The '07 Red Sox also had the best pitching staff in the AL, leading in ERA and WHIP, and the best Defensive Efficiency with the lowest Runs Against Per Game. 

If the '26ers can replicate those standings, it's going to be ok. Btw: the '07 Sox also launched 18 more home runs in the postseason when they went 11-3.

[JoeBrady]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Home runs don't mean more wins in the regular season.

There are the OBP/HR rankings for our 4 recent WS teams.  Small sample size and all, but the disparity is incredible.  We finished 1st in scoring in three of those seasons.

• 	OBP	HR
  2004	1	5
  2007	2	18
  2013	1	6
  2018	1	9

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

There are the OBP/HR rankings for our 4 recent WS teams.  Small sample size and all, but the disparity is incredible.  We finished 1st in scoring in three of those seasons.

• 	OBP	HR
  2004	1	5
  2007	2	18
  2013	1	6
  2018	1	9

That's a great chart. And it's also a reminder that the '07 champs that finished 18 in the long regular season also crushed 18 HRs in the Only Sample Size Postseason.