What the AL East Division competition is doing

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

My bad, because I didn’t even know Rodon had surgery, so thanks for straightening me out.🤓

We shouldn't write Rodon off, nor Cole, but we need to question them like we question our own.

I'm kinda bummed at our 2026 outlook, so far, but the rotation is our bright spot- on paper. Of course, the games are played on the field, but it helps to have your pitchers lined up as best as can be, when possible.

I'm pretty confident our offense will be good enough, but I'm assuming we add a good 2B/3Bman. If we can add a very good one, we should be better in 2026, assuming good health and expected progressions and regressions all around.

I like the Contreras addition more and more, but there is a chance he declines due to age. Maybe the park helps him put that off a couple more years.

The vast majority of our everyday players are on the upswings of their careers, by following the normal age bell curve, but we all know most players rarely follow the curve perfectly. We will likely need some luck on the confluence of good years by just enough players to make a serious run at a ring, but we have enough pieces to think it "could happen."

Our returning players are listed here by most PAs in 2025 with their ages listed (OPS in '25):

696 Duran 28 .774

654 Story 32 .741

587 Rafaela 24 .708

446 Narvaez 26 .726

417 W Abreu 26 .786

The top 5 have nobody over .786, but none below .708, and only Story is over 28. The next group is where much of the hope lies...

341 Romy 28  .826 (maybe an outlier)

303 Anthony 21 .859 (enormous upside, here)

263 Campbell 23 .664 (could bounce back bigtime)

205 Yoshida 31 .696 (should hit over .750)

194 DHam 27 .590 & 188 Wong 29 .500 (hard to imagine they do this poorly and get these PAs numbers, if they do.)

136 Mayer 22 .674 (another guy with upside)

112 Casas 25  .580 (could be the wildcard in '26)

Contreras hit .791 in 563 PAs in '25 at age 33.

7 key players will be under 27: Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Narvaez, Casas, Campbell &, Mayer

2 key players will be 28-30: Duran & Romy

3 key players will be 31-33: Story, Contreras & Yoshida

No batters will be 34 on opening day.  (Contreras turns 34 in May.) Normally, it makes sense to project overall improvement when your batters slot in these age groups.

 

 

 

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

Projections, and predictions are all useless, and meaningless IMO, and if they weren’t rosters haven’t even been set yet.🤭

So, if projections don't count for anything, then all 30 teams are identical, right?

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

So, if projections don't count for anything, then all 30 teams are identical, right?

GMs have to try and build the best teams they can on paper, and projecting production plays into that task heavily. Projecting health is not easy and often domms a GM, and a team, but some players are clearly more likely to get hurt than others.

Age progression and regression is just one aspect of projection outcomes. To me, the age thing is working in the Sox favor, as we have very few key players past prime. Only Chapman and Gray are significantly past prime, and bot have key roles, but the rest of the 24 players on the 26 are all close enough to prime to not expect major regressions. Most of our key players are on the upswing or in peak prime. That might be the best hope we have for 2026.

It's super hard to project players like Mayer, Campbell, Early, Tolle and Anthony. It's not much easier figuring out how well Narvaez, Romy and Rafaela will do. Story's health is a worry, but he, Duran, Abreu, Contreras, Crochet and Gray seem like the only players we can reasonably guess how well they will do.

I get the argument that we lack true major stars, beyond Crochet and maybe Chapman, but teams can win with balance, too.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

GMs have to try and build the best teams they can on paper,

I was just making fun of the idea that someone will project one team to have a better record that another team, but also claims that you cannot project anything.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I was just making fun of the idea that someone will project one team to have a better record that another team, but also claims that you cannot project anything.

Yes, I understood your point and the context.

To go further, the one who never predicts anything, very often claims he was right on open-ended non predictions.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I understood your point and the context.

To go further, the one who never predicts anything, very often claims he was right on open-ended non predictions.

I just don’t have room for big mounds of spaghetti than ran down the wall at my house.🤭

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I just don’t have room for big mounds of spaghetti than ran down the wall at my house.🤭

But I love spaghetti!

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

But I love spaghetti!

I both predicted and projected that he would say that.  I told you that past events can predict future events.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I both predicted and projected that he would say that.  I told you that past events can predict future events.

I predict, at some point, this season, he will say, "See, I told you ____ would happen," despite never making any tangible predictions.

[Old Red]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I predict, at some point, this season, he will say, "See, I told you ____ would happen," despite never making any tangible predictions.

If the situation warrants it, and it ALWAYS does.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

If the situation warrants it, and it ALWAYS does.

If by always, you mean NEVER, I agree…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

If the situation warrants it, and it ALWAYS does.

Once again, you miss the point:

One who never makes predictions and doesn't even believe in them cannot later say they predicted something correctly. One can try, but the claims ring hollow.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Once again, you miss the point:

One who never makes predictions and doesn't even believe in them cannot later say they predicted something correctly. One can try, but the claims ring hollow.

What he is saying is he doesn’t believe in the predictions and projections of other people, unwashed heathen that they be…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

What he is saying is he doesn’t believe in the predictions and projections of other people, unwashed heathen that they be…

No. He says making predictions is pointless and worthless.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One who never makes predictions and doesn't even believe in them cannot later say they predicted something correctly.

You either predict, or you don't.  If someone wants to predict 85-88-91 wins,. then they they stand, or fall, with their predictions.  But the Freds will NEVER predict a number.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You either predict, or you don't.  If someone wants to predict 85-88-91 wins,. then they they stand, or fall, with their predictions.  But the Freds will NEVER predict a number.

Fred or Red?

[JoeBrady]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fred or Red?

Are they not both both part of the Fellowship of the Freds?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Are they not both both part of the Fellowship of the Freds?

Old Fred 

& 

Red Lynn

[notin]

On 12/27/2025 at 4:22 PM, moonslav59 said:

No. He says making predictions is pointless and worthless.

I was saying that just the other day to my local weather man…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I was saying that just the other day to my local weather man…

The weathermen in TX have it easy. They are never wrong.

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The weathermen in TX have it easy. They are never wrong.

Because the weather never changes.

”It’s going to be unbearably hot and unbearably humid, but on the bright side at 4pm there will be a torrential downpour that makes you think it’s time to gather two of every animal, but you will only get cats ready by the time it ends at 4:05.  
 

“Also, as we go thru this everyday, do I have to keep telling you to stop gathering cats that have been fixed?”

[Kimmi]

On 12/25/2025 at 9:59 PM, moonslav59 said:

GMs have to try and build the best teams they can on paper, and projecting production plays into that task heavily. Projecting health is not easy and often domms a GM, and a team, but some players are clearly more likely to get hurt than others.

Age progression and regression is just one aspect of projection outcomes. To me, the age thing is working in the Sox favor, as we have very few key players past prime. Only Chapman and Gray are significantly past prime, and bot have key roles, but the rest of the 24 players on the 26 are all close enough to prime to not expect major regressions. Most of our key players are on the upswing or in peak prime. That might be the best hope we have for 2026.

It's super hard to project players like Mayer, Campbell, Early, Tolle and Anthony. It's not much easier figuring out how well Narvaez, Romy and Rafaela will do. Story's health is a worry, but he, Duran, Abreu, Contreras, Crochet and Gray seem like the only players we can reasonably guess how well they will do.

I get the argument that we lack true major stars, beyond Crochet and maybe Chapman, but teams can win with balance, too.

No one knows what's going to actually happen on the field.  Building a good team on paper is really all a GM can do.  If projections, including analytics and scouting reports, have the Red Sox winning 98 games, then IMO, the GM has done his job.  If the Sox then go on to only win 80 games, I can't really fault the GM for that.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Kimmi said:

No one knows what's going to actually happen on the field.  Building a good team on paper is really all a GM can do.  If projections, including analytics and scouting reports, have the Red Sox winning 98 games, then IMO, the GM has done his job.  If the Sox then go on to only win 80 games, I can't really fault the GM for that.

Well said. I hope we end up at a projected98 wins.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well said. I hope we end up at a projected98 wins.

We should start an under/over contest to see who gets closest to what the bookies project.  Can I count on the Freds to make their prediction?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

We should start an under/over contest to see who gets closest to what the bookies project.  Can I count on the Freds to make their prediction?

After all winter deals are done, yes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well said. I hope we end up at a projected98 wins.

Hey -- it could happen: 85 regular season wins and a Wild Card + 13 more in a hot October/November... when the Great Pumpkin finally returns to the pumpkin patch with candy corn for all good little girls and boys.

The key won't be a middle-inning reliever with good potential horizontal sweep traded for in the last minute of the deadline as the Red Sox' one major summer acquisition.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

After all winter deals are done, yes.

84 wins if no other moves are made. 

[Hugh2]

I'd project 87 wins now, 93 if they make a significant addition in the infield. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I predict the Sox are really looking forward to June, when they travel for a pair of three-game series in Seattle and Colorado.

They'll score 30 runs vs. the Rockies, and then the PR Dept and fans can brag that Boston's highly-rated offense averaged 5 runs per game on the road trip.

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

84 wins if no other moves are made. 

I predict other moves will be made…