Sox to acquire Sonny Gray

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

He was better in '24 than '25.

He was better in '23 than '24.

By what metric?  
 

If you’re using fWAR, the drop from 3.8 to 3.6 really doesn’t indicate decline…

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Yeah I'm really hoping a 36 year old who is clearly on the decline is not considered the solution for the #2 spot in the rotation.  

[Randy Red Sox]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I never fully bought into the whole "wilts in the spotlight" thing. Sometimes pitchers just have a bad year.

He was coming off two injury shortended seasons in that bad 2018 season. It's notable that his worst season was with OAK- certainly no spotlight's there.

He's had only 3 seasons below 100 ERA+

2016 OAK

2018 NYY

2025 STL

His next 3 worst seasons: STL, CIN, OAK, so one of his worst 6 seasons was in NY. His 2017 season was in the middle with a 122 ERA+.

like another poster pointed out though--Gray failed badly in NY and they rocked Gray in his start vs them last year. He is not a #2 in my opinion.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are 30 teams with ideally 5-man rotations, so 150 starting pitchers. 

After seeing some of the comparative stats by moon and others -- when considering the total #1 and #2 guys -- here's what needs to be asked: 

Is Sonny Gray at least one of the top 60 starting pitchers in the MLB?

... or to reword: are there really 90 starting pitchers in the MLB better than Gray?

(yes, I realize 5 of those 60 are probably Dodgers... but then 0 are Rockies).

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, notin said:

By what metric?  
 

If you’re using fWAR, the drop from 3.8 to 3.6 really doesn’t indicate decline…

I've listed the numbers several times, including fWAR and FIP, which hold Gray in a more glamorous light. He they are a 4th or 5th time:

K-BB% (I have showed he has not declined here)

17.0>24.4>21.6 (but slightly from '24>'25)

fWAR: 5.4>3.8>3.6 (YES, very slight decline '24-'25)

bWAR: 5.6>1.8>1.4 (Clear and continuing decline)

ERA+: 157>107>96 (Clear decine)

ERA-: 65>95>104  (Clear 2 year decline)

FIP: 2.83>3.12>3.39 (an almost perfect straight line decline.)

They guy has gotten worse, but is still pretty good. We don't have to deny the decline to thiink he's still good.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

like another poster pointed out though--Gray failed badly in NY and they rocked Gray in his start vs them last year. He is not a #2 in my opinion.

IMO, he's a decent #3, who has some numbers that show he's a high #2.

He's better than Crawford, but may not do much better than Gio did in 2025.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've listed the numbers several times, including fWAR and FIP, which hold Gray in a more glamorous light. He they are a 4th or 5th time:

K-BB% (I have showed he has not declined here)

17.0>24.4>21.6 (but slightly from '24>'25)

fWAR: 5.4>3.8>3.6 (YES, very slight decline '24-'25)

bWAR: 5.6>1.8>1.4 (Clear and continuing decline)

ERA+: 157>107>96 (Clear decine)

ERA-: 65>95>104  (Clear 2 year decline)

FIP: 2.83>3.12>3.39 (an almost perfect straight line decline.)

The guy has gotten worse, but is still pretty good. We don't have to deny the decline to thiink he's still good.

Some numbers going the wrong way, some not.  But the only one that scares me of the one mentioned earlier - age.

[notin]

50 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

There are 30 teams with ideally 5-man rotations, so 150 starting pitchers. 

After seeing some of the comparative stats by moon and others -- when considering the total #1 and #2 guys -- here's what needs to be asked: 

Is Sonny Gray at least one of the top 60 starting pitchers in the MLB?

... or to reword: are there really 90 starting pitchers in the MLB better than Gray?

(yes, I realize 5 of those 60 are probably Dodgers... but then 0 are Rockies).

A reasonable way to look at #2 or #3 pitchers!!

Are there even 30 better than Gray?

[Randy Red Sox]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, he's a decent #3, who has some numbers that show he's a high #2.

He's better than Crawford, but may not do much better than Gio did in 2025.

definitely better than Crawford but not sure he will match Gio from last year. I am glad we got Gray but I don't see him as more than a #4 at this stage of his career but he will have some games where he looks like a #2 but will it be in the AL East games is the big question.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, he's a decent #3, who has some numbers that show he's a high #2.

He's better than Crawford, but may not do much better than Gio did in 2025.

It's pretty obvious Gray replaces Giolito as a good veteran presence in the rotation. And Gio was arguably the #2 of a playoff team last year. 

If Sonny is only a decent #3 that means there's at least 60 to 70 starting pitchers better than him...

... though his durability -- which Gio once had -- gives Brez a better chance that he'll actually start a playoff game.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

like another poster pointed out though--Gray failed badly in NY and they rocked Gray in his start vs them last year. He is not a #2 in my opinion.

So what is a #2 starter?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just now, notin said:

So what is a #2 starter?

Possible answer: the guy who starts Game 2 in a playoff... but who you're not afraid to start Game 1, if you just used your ace to clinch the last round...

... and that doesn't necessarily mean an All-Star, who made that squad after a good first half: I'm looking at you, Matt Clement, Game 1 starter in the '05 playoffs (but probably the #4 behind Wake, Wells and Arroyo)...

... or you, Drew Pomeranz, who didn't even get a start in the '16 ALDS sweep at the hands of Cleveland, but who did give up the playoff-losing homer to Coco Crisp.

 

[harmony]

A healthy Blake Snell would likely be preferred over Sonny Gray as the starter in a Game 2 of a postseason series but a durable Gray would be of more help in getting a club to the postseason.

[Old Red]

It just amazes me on the fixation that everyone has on numbering starting pitches in the first place, and then spend countless hours debating what each number means like in the big scheme of things it means anything. There are many different ways to measure how good a starting pitcher is stat wise, but how they rank 1-5 isn’t one of them. The most important thing that can happen when a starter pitches is if the team wins the game, or not even if his stats,  are good, or bad for that game. I asked this question last year if on game day you sit, and analyze if you have a #2 pitcher going against a #4 pitcher, or a #3 pitcher going against a #5 pitcher, and so on, and so on? You can pretty much tell if one pitcher is better, or worse than another pitcher with out them being assigned any number to them.🤔🤭

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It just amazes me on the fixation that everyone has on numbering starting pitches in the first place, and then spend countless hours debating what each number means like in the big scheme of things it means anything. There are many different ways to measure how good a starting pitcher is stat wise, but how they rank 1-5 isn’t one of them. The most important thing that can happen when a starter pitches is if the team wins the game, or not even if his stats,  are good, or bad for that game. I asked this question last year if on game day you sit, and analyze if you have a #2 pitcher going against a #4 pitcher, or a #3 pitcher going against a #5 pitcher, and so on, and so on? You can pretty much tell if one pitcher is better, or worse than another pitcher with out them being assigned any number to them.🤔🤭

Exactly.

Gray is an improvement for this team.  
 

Theres also a lot of talking about “replacing players” and whether or not it’s just status quo.  If they replace Bregman with Player X and Giolito with Player Y, then we are no better than last year.  Or will be when we replace Devers.

Stop.  

Thats not how it works and we all know it.   Especially arguing the team needs to replace both Devers (who played less than half of a season) and Bregman (less than 3/4 and wasn’t that good when he came back) with TWO FULLTIME NINE FIGURE CONTRACTS.  (No one ever just asks  to improve over Abraham Toro.)

The rationale for what this team needs looks like nothing more than cries and pleas for more free agents.  No wonder John Henry hates you people…

[Larry Cook]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He was better in '24 than '25.

He was better in '23 than '24.

And yet, he is getting 41mm to pitch in 2026??? 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

So what is a #2 starter?

IMO, someone who can reliably expect to be ranked between 31-60 in WAR.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

A healthy Blake Snell would likely be preferred over Sonny Gray as the starter in a Game 2 of a postseason series but a durable Gray would be of more help in getting a club to the postseason.

IMO, there are two directions to go in.  Having 5 Grays is the easiest path towards making the playoffs.  Having two Crochets is the easiest path to a WS, but you have to get to the playoffs first.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, someone who can reliably expect to be ranked between 31-60 in WAR.

Sonny Gray more than meets that criterion…

[JoeBrady]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Sonny Gray more than meets that criterion…

Absolutely.  I have some fear that he might not like Fenway, and some fear that he might be one year older, but very few pitchers come without question marks.  TO just paid out $210M to someone with similar grades.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

And yet, he is getting 41mm to pitch in 2026??? 

So?

I like Gray. He's better than Sandoval. Crawford & Co. and probably better than Bello in 2026.

I had hoped we'd do better, but we didn't use up the trade capital I was expecting to give up for Ryan or Lodolo, so if we use that capital in a good way, I might be fine with the winter moves as a whole.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, notin said:

So what is a #2 starter?

Coming from you i know this is a no-win trick question but I would say it would be someone who can fill most of all or all of the following

1} pitch at least 160 innings with a sub 4.00 era

2} be effective against teams in the AL East

3} be cost controlled for at least 2-3 years

4} preferably but not a must that he be RH

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Sonny Gray more than meets that criterion…

I agree, even if his ERA-/ERA+ places him in the 61-90 group (#3's.)

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

And yet, he is getting 41mm to pitch in 2026??? 

1-The contract was backloaded.

2-That's the way contracts work.  You generally get more value earlier and less value later.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Exactly.

Gray is an improvement for this team.  
 

Theres also a lot of talking about “replacing players” and whether or not it’s just status quo.  If they replace Bregman with Player X and Giolito with Player Y, then we are no better than last year.  Or will be when we replace Devers.

Stop.  

Thats not how it works and we all know it.   Especially arguing the team needs to replace both Devers (who played less than half of a season) and Bregman (less than 3/4 and wasn’t that good when he came back) with TWO FULLTIME NINE FIGURE CONTRACTS.  (No one ever just asks  to improve over Abraham Toro.)

The rationale for what this team needs looks like nothing more than cries and pleas for more free agents.  No wonder John Henry hates you people…

I am NOT against adding Sonny Gray.  I like him but just don't know that he can be a frontline SP vs many teams in the AL East at this stage of his career. I dont see him as more than a replacement for Gio though.  I am also tired of adding all these 1 year players and listening to how we are going to be"all-in" on front line guys and then just adding more 1 year rentals. 

I the true plan is just to continue to build from with-in then just say so instead of having 1 disappointing offseason after another.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

1-The contract was backloaded.

2-That's the way contracts work.  You generally get more value earlier and less value later.

That dollar amount includes the 2027 $10M buyout.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Randy Red Sox said:

I am NOT against adding Sonny Gray.  I like him but just don't know that he can be a frontline SP vs many teams in the AL East at this stage of his career. I dont see him as more than a replacement for Gio though.  I am also tired of adding all these 1 year players and listening to how we are going to be"all-in" on front line guys and then just adding more 1 year rentals. 

I the true plan is just to continue to build from with-in then just say so instead of having 1 disappointing offseason after another.

Trusting a 36 year old pitchers with ERA-/ERA+ in the #3-#4 range seems like we are repeating the same strategy that has failed from Richards to Buehler, but IMO, Gray is the second best starting pitcher we have added since the Nate trade in 2018. (Crochet is the clear #1.) 

That being said, the comp group is headlined by Wacha, who missed key time in his one and done year.

[Randy Red Sox]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Trusting a 36 year old pitchers with ERA-/ERA+ in the #3-#4 range seems like we are repeating the same strategy that has failed from Richards to Buehler, but IMO, Gray is the second best starting pitcher we have added since the Nate trade in 2018. (Crochet is the clear #1.) 

That being said, the comp group is headlined by Wacha, who missed key time in his one and done year.

Gray is definitely better than Richards or Buehler

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Gray is definitely better than Richards or Buehler

He's better than what we expected from Wacha, too.

I like him more than I liked Gio, and 1 year is better than 2.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

It just amazes me on the fixation that everyone has on numbering starting pitches in the first place, and then spend countless hours debating what each number means like in the big scheme of things it means anything. There are many different ways to measure how good a starting pitcher is stat wise, but how they rank 1-5 isn’t one of them. 

It's the offseason. Things are barely happening yet, but it's already primetime for fans who post daily on forums. Here's another ranking...

Talksox SPECULATING ROTATION: #1 -- Cy Offseason with his five pitches to improve the team (free agency, winter meetings, blockbuster trade, waiver wire acquisition, Rule V draft); #2 -- Preseason Predictor, who always takes the over on his Ws every Spring; #3 -- Julio Tradeadline, whose promising deceptive curveballs are inevitably spiked in the dirt; #4 and #5 -- Stretchrun Pickup and I.M. Ineligible... any contributions are appreciated.

Type, post, repeat.