Boston Red Sox Offseason Target: 1B Luis Arráez

[Nick John]

Since the start of the 2023 season, the Boston Red Sox have operated under the belief that Triston Casas was their first baseman of the present and future. Unfortunately, injuries in 2024 and 2025 have raised doubt, and the team now appears unwilling to commit to Casas in 2026 as he rehabs from a torn left patellar tendon.

With there being more than a few options available on the free-agent market this offseason, it would be wise for the Red Sox to at least do some perfunctory checking in with various players. Admittedly, however, when you look at the list of available first basemen, it gets rather thin after the top shelf. While the obvious big catch of all first basemen will be New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso, the other big names that stand out are Josh Naylor, Munetaka Murakami, and Cody Bellinger.

Beyond them, there is a vastly different option available—one who is viewed as one of the more divisive players in baseball as his style of play feels more and more archaic by the year. Known for his lack of power and low exit velocities, contact-maven Luis Arráez could be in play for Boston depending on how the market falls.

With a potential bidding war looming for Alonso along with Seattle already planning to go all-in on retaining Naylor, Arráez could be a cheaper option for the Red Sox to plug in at first (and, potentially, second base).

The Good:

Right away, we can immediately state that Arráez is not someone to miss time. Since making his major league debut in 2019 (and excluding the COVID shortened 2020 season), there have only been two seasons where he has played less than 140 games: 2019 and 2021. Since 2022, he has played the following amount of games each season; 144, 147, 150, and 154 this past year. This would be an improvement alone, as the Red Sox have dealt with injuries across their infield these past few seasons, especially at first base with Casas.

And along with playing first base, Arráez has also played quite a bit of second base in his career, making the All-Star team in 2023 with the Miami Marlins as a second baseman. Such versatility would allow the Red Sox to mix and match their lineup depending on the starting pitcher by plugging Arráez in at either position depending on the need.

Where he would be most useful, however, is at the plate. Despite having one of the lowest exit velocities in the game and impossibly-low barrel rates, Arráez rarely misses when he swings. His ability to put the ball in play nearly every at-bat is something that could be extremely useful, especially during a low-scoring playoff series. In 2025, his whiff rate sat at just 5.3% and his strikeout rate was 3.1%, numbers that placed him in the 100th percentile league-wide.

It gets even more impressive when you look at his career. In 3244 career at-bats, Arráez has struck out only 215 times, a feat that feels almost impossible with the way pitchers can rack up strikeouts in today’s game. The left-handed hitter has also displayed some slugging capabilities, though more in the sense of gap-to-gap thanks in part to his 30 doubles this past season. And while he may not hit the ball hard, Arráez possesses perhaps the best bat control in all of baseball—his squared-up percentage in 2025 was 42.6%, also placing him in the 100th percentile.

Currently, Arráez is projected to earn a contract worth around $25 million over a period of two years, according to MLB Trade Rumors and The Athletic. There's no doubt there will be teams who will look to him as a starting first base option, especially once Alonso, Naylor and Ryan O’Hearn sign elsewhere. If the Red Sox could convince him to come to the east coast, he could provide a steady presence in the lineup.

The Bad:

Let’s discuss the biggest issue right away. Despite an incredible bat-to-ball skillset, Arráez has a clear lack of power when it comes to his game. While the first baseman can provide doubles and the occasional home run (he had six last season), when you think of a first baseman you think of a power hitter. Of course, should he slide back to second base, the amount of power you need is more negotiable, but it's still more than what he provides.

As mentioned previously, Arráez ranked near the bottom of the league in exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate, the latter two sitting in the lowest percentile at 1.1% and 16.7%, respectively. His bat speed was also nonexistent, averaging 62.6 mph this past season, the slowest swing speed in the sport.

And despite a season that ended a stat line of .292/.327/.392, Arráez saw his OPS drop for the third straight season as it went from .861 in 2023 to .739 in 2024 down to .719 this past season. He also finished with an OPS+ of 99, the first time in his career it was ever below 100.

There is a chance that a ballpark change could see a slight increase in power for Arráez, as in his career, he’s driven balls in the air to the opposite field 25% of the time and could pepper the Green Monster with his hits. In 2025 alone, he went to the opposite field on all batted balls 38.2% of the time. Despite that, his already low home run numbers would drop even more. Had Arráez played every game at Fenway Park this season, he'd have produced just two home runs. Of course, he would only play 81 games at home and there’s no telling how many home runs he could hit away from Fenway, but the expectation for Arráez would be more towards putting the ball in play and aiming for doubles.

Defensively, he also just isn’t very good. He had one of the lowest Outs Above Average at the position at -9 and his Fielding Run Value was at -5 this season. While he only committed one error at first base this season, he isn’t the defensive stalwart the team would like to have manning first base.

The Verdict:

Personally, I like a player who can get on base and not strike out. Despite the importance of having high-OPS guys in the middle of lineups, I still feel a team needs one or two guys who put the ball in play often and produce high averages. Unfortunately for Arráez, I don’t think he would work out as a first baseman with the Red Sox.

As mentioned before, first basemen are expected to be power hitters and Arráez clearly does not fit that mold. And even if you were to slot him in at second base instead, $12-15 million a year for a second baseman is a lot when you could realistically split the position between Marcelo Mayer and Romy González for a lot less money.

With guys like Alonso and Naylor available who have shown the ability to hit for a lote more power in their careers, it would make more sense for the Red Sox to try and sign one of them first, and should they fail in that endeavor have Arráez as their backup plan. If the Red Sox could get him to sign a pillow contract—maybe a one-year deal with a mutual option—to prove he’s better than the hitter he was in 2025 (first time in his career he would be considered below league average), I don’t see why they shouldn’t offer it, especially if they invest the money they saved into upgrading other parts of the lineup.

But for right now, with bigger names available and the options currently in-house, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Red Sox to invest a lot of money into a league-average hitter who’s really good at just putting the ball in play. Despite his contact skills, it isn’t worth the price he’s going likely to command, especially after the Red Sox lacked power in their lineup for most of 2025.

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[notin]

I don’t expect Arraez, but I am glad to see the care for him.

I think his days are 2b might be done however…

[Hitch]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t expect Arraez, but I am glad to see the care for him.

I think his days are 2b might be done however…

Agreed. I think it's 1st or nothing. If we're getting power elsewhere, I don't dislike it if he only plays 1st. I can live without his power as we need people who can put the damn ball in play. It's a reasonable salary on a 2 year deal. But that takes Alonso out of the equation, and I'm not sure we get Schwarber with the Phillies not wanting him to go, and Masa on the roster. So where does the power we badly need come from if we did this?

[mvp 78]

If Arraez could have played average defense, he would have been PAID. Now he can't field and his wRC+ is retreating to 100. Sad! 

[Duran Is The Man]

pass

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Already paying a lefty contact hitter with little power who has no real position... bad enough to have one guy who's a poor fit, but don't get stuck up Poor Fits Creek with just a tennis racket.

Just pay Pete Alonshmoe.

 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

I'm shocked at how quickly fans discard young players.  Casas could get hurt every year from now on or he could never have another extended time period on the IL.  More than likely, it will be somewhere between these two extremes so just maybe we should consider his skills first then estimate his injuries as a highly insignificant factor to apply at the end of the analysis.

In three seasons he's finished 3rd in the ROY race and had two key injuries the other two years.  In his best season he played in 132 games thanks to Cora's insistence on over playing the bench and he put up a .263 average, an OBP that was over 100 points higher than his average meaning he has a great eye, a slugging percent that is .220 above his average (his Isolated Power) which was excellent and an .856 OPS that translated to an excellent 129 OPS+.  

For me, that's enough upside to give him at least one more season in Boston, much like Campbell.  Rafaela's and Duran's hitting didn't initially wow fans and now they are two potential all-stars.  Both Casas and Campbell have the same huge upside if the organization shows patience.

So where does the off-season money need to be invested?  Starting right-handed stud pitcher and an excellent catcher like Realmuto since catchers are not typically expensive so buying an expensive one is relative meaning not terribly expensive.  The rest of the money needs to upgrade the bullpen.  This team is on the verge of greatness with just a few tweaks.  Breslow needs to his job and fill the holes with the best available players.  I think he will.  I still pray he finally hires his own manager because they need a manager who can deliver a great August and September run because Cora's Achilles Heel is poor performance down the stretch due to his unorthodox managerial choices.

[JoeBrady]

144, 147, 150, and 154 this past year.

That's 149 on average.  There were 10 1Bs in 2025 that had 153 games last year,  149 is 'meh.

[moonslav59]

Nope.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

144, 147, 150, and 154 this past year.

That's 149 on average.  There were 10 1Bs in 2025 that had 153 games last year,  149 is 'meh.

Only 19 players had over 100 games at 1b last year. Being able to lace them up for 149 is good (only 115 were at 1b). 

[mvp 78]

Only 66 players appeared in 150+ games last season. 

Arraez is 27th in games played over the previous 4 seasons (more than any current Red Sox). 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 66 players appeared in 150+ games last season. 

Arraez is 27th in games played over the previous 4 seasons (more than any current Red Sox). 

So you’re saying if Boston signs him, he will break his index finger putting his name on the contract…

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

So you’re saying if Boston signs him, he will break his index finger putting his name on the contract…

I LITTERALLY didn't say that. 🤬

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

I'm shocked at how quickly fans discard young players.  Casas could get hurt every year from now on or he could never have another extended time period on the IL.  More than likely, it will be somewhere between these two extremes so just maybe we should consider his skills first then estimate his injuries as a highly insignificant factor to apply at the end of the analysis.

In three seasons he's finished 3rd in the ROY race and had two key injuries the other two years.  In his best season he played in 132 games thanks to Cora's insistence on over playing the bench and he put up a .263 average, an OBP that was over 100 points higher than his average meaning he has a great eye, a slugging percent that is .220 above his average (his Isolated Power) which was excellent and an .856 OPS that translated to an excellent 129 OPS+.  

For me, that's enough upside to give him at least one more season in Boston, much like Campbell.  Rafaela's and Duran's hitting didn't initially wow fans and now they are two potential all-stars.  Both Casas and Campbell have the same huge upside if the organization shows patience.

So where does the off-season money need to be invested?  Starting right-handed stud pitcher and an excellent catcher like Realmuto since catchers are not typically expensive so buying an expensive one is relative meaning not terribly expensive.  The rest of the money needs to upgrade the bullpen.  This team is on the verge of greatness with just a few tweaks.  Breslow needs to his job and fill the holes with the best available players.  I think he will.  I still pray he finally hires his own manager because they need a manager who can deliver a great August and September run because Cora's Achilles Heel is poor performance down the stretch due to his unorthodox managerial choices.

I agree on Casas, with two notes.  First and foremost, we have to know his injury status.  He's always hit, so I am not concerned about that.  But if he is out until May, we need a contingency plan.  Second, and less important, a righty like Alonso is a better fit.

Yes to the best pitcher that we can sign or trade for.

But no to Realmuto.  In order to spend an extra $15-20M, he would need to be a substantial upgrade over Narvaez, and I am not seeing that.  I also have no interest in trying to outbid Philly.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 19 players had over 100 games at 1b last year. Being able to lace them up for 149 is good (only 115 were at 1b). 

I used total games since many 1B also DH.  But his games played via 1B and DH is not impressive.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I used total games since many 1B also DH.  But his games played via 1B and DH is not impressive.

Being "impressive" and "meh" are two completely different things. He has been able to stay on the field for the past 4 seasons. Most players are unable to do that. To me, staying healthy is a skillset.

Unfortunately, Arraez is a healthy contact hitter with no power, speed or defense. Not a whole lot going on. Doesn't seem like a fit for the Sox at all. 

[mvp 78]

The question about Casas is less about him as a hitter and more about his current injury. I can even ignore his previous injury concerns. I just think this particular injury is a substantial setback for his career. I hope to be wrong. No matter what, he has options and can start the year as the DH in AAA. He can work his way back to DH in BOS if they sign a RHB everyday 1B. At that point, you make a decision on Masa and either find a trade and eat salary or DFA if Casas is 100% healthy. 

[JoeBrady]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Being "impressive" and "meh" are two completely different things. He has been able to stay on the field for the past 4 seasons. Most players are unable to do that. To me, staying healthy is a skillset.

Unfortunately, Arraez is a healthy contact hitter with no power, speed or defense. Not a whole lot going on. Doesn't seem like a fit for the Sox at all. 

I don't think I've ever considered total games played as a criteria for a 1B.  They can get HBP or in a collision, but this is not a position where some players can't handle the stress of playing every day.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The question about Casas is less about him as a hitter and more about his current injury. I can even ignore his previous injury concerns. I just think this particular injury is a substantial setback for his career. I hope to be wrong. No matter what, he has options and can start the year as the DH in AAA. He can work his way back to DH in BOS if they sign a RHB everyday 1B. At that point, you make a decision on Masa and either find a trade and eat salary or DFA if Casas is 100% healthy. 

I may be wrong, but I thought you were most worried about the rib injury- not the ruptured patellar tendon.

To me, even if a doctor says he's 100% healthy, I doubt he'll make it through a full season in 2026. It's the next injury that worries me more.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

16 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree on Casas, with two notes.  First and foremost, we have to know his injury status.  He's always hit, so I am not concerned about that.  But if he is out until May, we need a contingency plan.  Second, and less important, a righty like Alonso is a better fit.

Yes to the best pitcher that we can sign or trade for.

But no to Realmuto.  In order to spend an extra $15-20M, he would need to be a substantial upgrade over Narvaez, and I am not seeing that.  I also have no interest in trying to outbid Philly.

I see Narvaez as a one year wonder like Wong.  If he can repeat his career year, I agree with you but I doubt it.  The Devers money is still not used up so we can afford Realmuto but if we can steal the Colorado catcher that would be excellent.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I may be wrong, but I thought you were most worried about the rib injury- not the ruptured patellar tendon.

To me, even if a doctor says he's 100% healthy, I doubt he'll make it through a full season in 2026. It's the next injury that worries me more.

You are wrong. It's the leg injury that is bothering me, not the rib. 

[Hitch]

Both injuries bother me, but the knee injury was a big one, and came just from him running to first. 

I really hope he can get back healthy and stay that way. I have serious reservations and shouldn't be considered until he can prove otherwise.

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You are wrong. It's the leg injury that is bothering me, not the rib. 

I know that's why he's out, but for some reason I thought you were more worried about the prior injury coming back to haunt him. Sorry.

In his current injury often a career ender? It's not like he relied on speed and agility in any part of his value skillsets. If we DH him, he may still hurt himself again running to 1B or just walking down the steps of the dugout, but I think it's more likely he finds a new injury that repeats this one, over and over.

I'm no MD, but I've read people fully recover from this injury/surgery in 6-9 months.

[Deja Doh]

Slap hitter without power.  If his OBP was closer to 0.400 maybe as a 2nd baseman.  Not as a 1st baseman.   No way.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

Slap hitter without power.  If his OBP was closer to 0.400 maybe as a 2nd baseman.  Not as a 1st baseman.   No way.

He used to be a nice .375 to .390 OBP, but has declined sharply there.

A big NOPE from me.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I know that's why he's out, but for some reason I thought you were more worried about the prior injury coming back to haunt him. Sorry.

In his current injury often a career ender? It's not like he relied on speed and agility in any part of his value skillsets. If we DH him, he may still hurt himself again running to 1B or just walking down the steps of the dugout, but I think it's more likely he finds a new injury that repeats this one, over and over.

I'm no MD, but I've read people fully recover from this injury/surgery in 6-9 months.

Leftfielder on our softball team pulled a hammy sliding a case of Bud cans out of the trunk of his car.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

Slap hitter without power.  If his OBP was closer to 0.400 maybe as a 2nd baseman.  Not as a 1st baseman.   No way.

No team could ever make the postseason with a bat like that at 1b!

Well, except San Diego…

[notin]

29 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Leftfielder on our softball team pulled a hammy sliding a case of Bud cans out of the trunk of his car.

Have him put to sleep and split the beers up 8 ways instead of 9.  Math works out better this way anyway…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Have him put to sleep and split the beers up 8 ways instead of 9.  Math works out better this way anyway…

Softball fields 10 with a 4-man outfield. Long time ago anyway... nowadays, kings come in 4-packs -- mainly because beer is so expensive.

I don't frequent bars anymore, but I'm told it's all old guys, since young people can't afford $10-dollar drafts (ah, the old days when we used to pound pitchers at the plate and then at the bar...).

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I know that's why he's out, but for some reason I thought you were more worried about the prior injury coming back to haunt him. Sorry.

In his current injury often a career ender? It's not like he relied on speed and agility in any part of his value skillsets. If we DH him, he may still hurt himself again running to 1B or just walking down the steps of the dugout, but I think it's more likely he finds a new injury that repeats this one, over and over.

I'm no MD, but I've read people fully recover from this injury/surgery in 6-9 months.

He doesn't rely on speed and agility, but he relies on his lower half to generate a lot of power to drive the ball. An average joe recovering from an injury is not the same as a professional athlete recovering from an injury. When I looked into it during the season, this injury wrecked the vast majority of MLB careers of the people who got it.