Four Free Agent Fits For the Top of the Red Sox’s Rotation

[Maddie Landis]

The Boston Red Sox’s rotation lacks a No. 2 starter. There are plenty of in-house candidates (Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison) to fill in at the back of the rotation, along with pitchers returning from injuries. Hunter Dobbins (torn ACL), Kutter Crawford (mysterious wrist injury), and Patrick Sandoval (torn UCL) are expected to pitch again at some point in the 2026 season. However, you can’t rely on recovering pitchers to immediately contribute like they would at full health.

Effectively, the Red Sox need a pitcher to cement their rotation and fill the gap between Garrett Crochet and their backend starters. Fortunately, the team possesses the financial resources to allocate towards free-agent starters (or perhaps an expensive trade target). Which pitchers should they go after? 

Dylan Cease (30, 3.4 fWAR)

Projected Contract
Analyst	Length	AAV	Total
Jim Bowden	6-years	$31.67 M	$187.0 M
Tim Britton	6-years	$29.0 M	$174.0 M
Matthew Pouliot	7-years	$30.0 M	$210.0 M

2025 Stats
IP	ERA	K-BB%	HardHit%	GB%	FIP	xFIP	WAR
168.0	4.55	19.9%	37.4%	36.6%	3.56	3.56	3.4

Dylan Cease’s durability is his most valuable asset. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched at least 150 innings, and the Red Sox’s rotation needs consistency behind Crochet. His slider is an authoritative pitch. In 2024, it posted the highest run value (25) among all pitch types. Cease’s 11.52 strikeouts per nine innings was the best in the majors this year.

He's attached to a qualifying offer, so it'll be interesting to see where his market leads. In terms of complementing Crochet, it's hard to imagine Boston doing better than a right-hander with his raw stuff.

Ranger Suárez (30, 4.0 fWAR)

Projected Contract
Analyst	Length	AAV	Total
Jim Bowden	6-years	$27.33 M	$164.0 M
Tim Britton	6-years	$25.5 M	$153.0 M
Matthew Pouliot	5-years	$27.0 M	$135.0 M

2025 Stats
IP	ERA	K-BB%	HardHit%	GB%	FIP	xFIP	WAR
157.1	3.20	17.4%	31.1%	46.8%	3.21	3.61	4.0

Ranger Suárez has been a cornerstone of the Phillies’ rotation over the past two seasons, but Zach Wheeler’s sheer dominance and the rise of Cristopher Sanchez pushed him down to the No. 3 spot. On any other team, he’d likely profile as a No. 2 starter. Read more about Ranger’s potential fit with the Red Sox in @Jordan Leandre's write-up.

Zac Gallen (30, 1.1 fWAR)

Projected Contract
Analyst	Length	AAV	Total
Jim Bowden	5-years	$27.0 M	$135.0 M
Tim Britton	2-years	$21.0 M	$42.0 M
Matthew Pouliot	2-years	$22.5 M	$45.0 M

2025 Stats
IP	ERA	K-BB%	HardHit%	GB%	FIP	xFIP	WAR
192.0	4.83	13.4%	41.0%	43.6%	4.50	4.12	1.1

Going into the 2025 season, it seemed like Zac Gallen was primed to cash in on a large contract. Three years ago, Gallen finished third in the NL Cy Young race and has remained a consistent Cy Young candidate throughout his career. Unfortunately, for most of the 2025 season, Gallen appeared to be a shell of his former self. His performance was, as my fellow Gen Z-ers say, “mid”. With a 5.40 ERA in the first half, his potential trade value took a hit, and he remained with the Diamondbacks through the conclusion of the trade deadline. 

Gallen’s fastball is the staple of his arsenal. He’s thrown the pitch 47% of the time throughout his career. The pitch is the bridge to his secondaries (knuckle curve, cutter, changeup, slider, and sinker). When he paints his fastball on the outer edges of the strike zone, he creates a deadly combo with his secondaries.

Between March and July, he struggled to command his fastball, and its velocity dropped (93.3 mph). Once the dog days of summer passed, he found better control and improved his velocity (94.0 mph). By the conclusion of the second half, he posted a 3.97 ERA.

Like Dylan Cease, Gallen’s durability is a major asset, throwing an average of 183.5 innings per season since 2022. Given his subpar performance in his walk year, Gallen won’t fetch a lengthy, long-term contract. If Andrew Bailey’s pitching lab can help him rebound, he’s a high-ceiling reclamation project.

Tatsuya Imai (28)
 

Projected Contract
Analyst	Length	AAV	Total
Jim Bowden	7-years	$22.0 M	$154.0 M
Tim Britton	8-years	$23.75 M	$190.0 M

2025 Stats
IP	ERA	K-BB%	HardHit%	GB%	FIP	xFIP
163.2	1.92	20.7%	16.5	48.3%	2.01	2.26

Freshly minted 2025 World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto has proved that smaller Japanese starters can succeed in MLB. Imai (5’11”) is the youngest free-agent starter this offseason, and I’d expect the Red Sox to be interested in him. For a deeper look into Imai, check out my piece from October.

---

Improving the rotation is a priority for the Red Sox’s front office this offseason. A free-agent acquisition is a start (no pun intended), though this year's free agency class is weaker compared to previous seasons. That said, the organization boasts a strong pitching development program, and has a history of turning even questionable signings into consistent contributors (see: Aroldis Chapman). Through whatever means, expect the Sox to enter the 2026 season with another starter between Crochet and Bello in the pecking order.

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[moonslav59]

At those prices the only one I might sign would be Ranger Suarez. (A distant second would be Imai.)

I'm thinking these guys might be more likely targets:

Merrill Kelly 37 (due to age and shorter term deal)

Nick Martinez 35 (same)

Jose Quintana 37, Justin Verlander 43, Max Scherzer 41, Tyler Anderson 36 (1 year deal and bridge to the kids)

Adrian Houser 33 or Jordan Montgomery 33(cause this is what the Sox do)

Michael Lorenzen 34

Shota Imanaga (if he passes and in-depth physical)

If 2-3 years or less....

King 31, Gio 30, Woodruff 33, Littell 30, Eflin 32, Mahle 31

[mvp 78]

Suarez or Imai could be the best available. Woodruff came back really strong. He still has TOTR stuff. Those would be the 3 guys I'd want to bring in. 

King had a down year and was offered a QO, so I'd pass on him if it's only a 2 year deal. No way on Imanaga with his QO. I'm not a fan of Cease or Valdez. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Suarez or Imai could be the best available. Woodruff came back really strong. He still has TOTR stuff. Those would be the 3 guys I'd want to bring in. 

King had a down year and was offered a QO, so I'd pass on him if it's only a 2 year deal. No way on Imanaga with his QO. I'm not a fan of Cease or Valdez. 

Two of the four MLBTR writers picked Cease for Boston.  I’m sure that’s mentioned somewhere on another thread…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Two of the four MLBTR writers picked Cease for Boston.  I’m sure that’s mentioned somewhere on another thread…

Then I have nothing to worry about! 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Then I have nothing to worry about! 

Not even Armageddon?

[Malcolm White]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

At those prices the only one I might sign would be Ranger Suarez. (A distant second would be Imai.)

I'm thinking these guys might be more likely targets:

Merrill Kelly 37 (due to age and shorter term deal)

Nick Martinez 35 (same)

Jose Quintana 37, Justin Verlander 43, Max Scherzer 41, Tyler Anderson 36 (1 year deal and bridge to the kids)

Adrian Houser 33 or Jordan Montgomery 33(cause this is what the Sox do)

Michael Lorenzen 34

Shota Imanaga (if he passes and in-depth physical)

If 2-3 years or less....

King 31, Gio 30, Woodruff 33, Littell 30, Eflin 32, Mahle 31

 

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Two of the four MLBTR writers picked Cease for Boston.  I’m sure that’s mentioned somewhere on another thread…

Free agency is so tricky because the length of deals.  If they're spending big money, would rather give it to Alonso and use trade capital to get the pitcher from a team that can't afford his contract (Lopez of the Twins) or needs other assets even more (Greene from the Reds for Duran+).

There's so many starters in the system with potential that I'd rather go short-term with the starter. Who knows what Tolle, Early, Perales, etc. might look like in a year.  This first two took a major leap forward last season, and it's possible Bres, Bailey and the pitching lab know what they're doing.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Suarez or Imai could be the best available. Woodruff came back really strong. He still has TOTR stuff. Those would be the 3 guys I'd want to bring in. 

King had a down year and was offered a QO, so I'd pass on him if it's only a 2 year deal. No way on Imanaga with his QO. I'm not a fan of Cease or Valdez. 

I agree. I'm not sure about Imai, but he seems like a better gamble than others being talked up.

[TedYazPapiMookie]

The pitching pecking order is simple:

Crochet, Bieber (most cost effective choice), Early, H, Giolito, Tolle (off season needs to a d pitch) with Bello the first depth starter that can be the long relief guy until someone gets hurt.

Dylan Cease is an over-priced alternative.

Ranger Suarrez is not a SP2 in Boston.

Gallen is no Bieber but is a decent fall-back choice.

Imai is yet another wasteful Japanese pick so stay away.

Go get Bieber and let's win the division with Bregman returning and Realmuto taking over at catcher.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Malcolm White said:

 

Free agency is so tricky because the length of deals.  If they're spending big money, would rather give it to Alonso and use trade capital to get the pitcher from a team that can't afford his contract (Lopez of the Twins) or needs other assets even more (Greene from the Reds for Duran+).

There's so many starters in the system with potential that I'd rather go short-term with the starter. Who knows what Tolle, Early, Perales, etc. might look like in a year.  This first two took a major leap forward last season, and it's possible Bres, Bailey and the pitching lab know what they're doing.

Agreed.

For a long time, I've been suggesting we trade for a solid SP (Ryan or Lodolo- last resort M Keller) and use the money for big bats.

[moonslav59]

Just now, TedYazPapiMookie said:

 

Imai is yet another wasteful Japanese pick so stay away.

 

What is the "wasteful" rate on Japanese pitchers vs American, Dominican, or _____?

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

For a long time, I've been suggesting we trade for a solid SP (Ryan or Lodolo- last resort M Keller) and use the money for big bats.

Well, the Sox are definitely moving a good and cheap outfielder for something.   Pitching would be good…

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. I'm not sure about Imai, but he seems like a better gamble than others being talked up.

We've seen some NPB guys really pop and the price wouldn't include a QO. 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

The pitching pecking order is simple:

Crochet, Bieber (most cost effective choice), Early, H, Giolito, Tolle (off season needs to a d pitch) with Bello the first depth starter that can be the long relief guy until someone gets hurt.

Dylan Cease is an over-priced alternative.

Ranger Suarrez is not a SP2 in Boston.

Gallen is no Bieber but is a decent fall-back choice.

Imai is yet another wasteful Japanese pick so stay away.

Go get Bieber and let's win the division with Bregman returning and Realmuto taking over at catcher.

Hard to get Bieber when he just re-signed with TOR for $16M. 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Malcolm White said:

 

Free agency is so tricky because the length of deals.  If they're spending big money, would rather give it to Alonso and use trade capital to get the pitcher from a team that can't afford his contract (Lopez of the Twins) or needs other assets even more (Greene from the Reds for Duran+).

There's so many starters in the system with potential that I'd rather go short-term with the starter. Who knows what Tolle, Early, Perales, etc. might look like in a year.  This first two took a major leap forward last season, and it's possible Bres, Bailey and the pitching lab know what they're doing.

I agree.  I think some of writers are over-estimating the length of some of those deals.  I think the Reds and Pirates are primed to deal from the rotation depth, but they need GMs capable of making big-time trades.  And Minny is almost definitely dealing, and maybe Miami.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com released it's top 50 FA list and here are the players listed with Sox predictions:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

3. Cease $189M/7

4. Murakami $180M/8

(Bregman at #5 at $160M/6 was not projected by anyone to be a Sox signing.)

20. E Suarez $63M/3

Polanco was not listed by anyone as Sox bound, but getting Suarez ($21M AAV) + Polanco $14M AAV) would keep us easily under the tax line. We could likely add Matz and Ref.

If we signed Suarez & Polanco and also traded Duran for Ryan, we'd add $3-4M to the roughly $10M left to spend and stay under the line. What can we get for $13-14M AAV? O'Hearn, Realmuto, N martinez, Arraez, Littell or maybe Hoskins or bell plus Matz.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S Polanco 2B

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Suarez 3B

5. S Josh Bell 1B 

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

We could also play Mayer at 3B, Suarez at 1B and DH Bell.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB.com released it's top 50 FA list and here are the players listed with Sox predictions:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

3. Cease $189M/7

4. Murakami $180M/8

(Bregman at #5 at $160M/6 was not projected by anyone to be a Sox signing.)

20. E Suarez $63M/3

No way are they spending 70M AAV on Cease, Murakami and Suarez. 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No way are they spending 70M AAV on Cease, Murakami and Suarez. 

Yup. Those are just the 3 that got some votes.

I doubt we get any of those 3.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup. Those are just the 3 that got some votes.

I doubt we get any of those 3.

That Murakami contract is a very expensive lottery ticket. I don't want any part of it. The variance on what he could be isn't worth it to me since JH isn't free spending anymore. 

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That Murakami contract is a very expensive lottery ticket. I don't want any part of it. The variance on what he could be isn't worth it to me since JH isn't free spending anymore. 

A lot of those predictions seem too long, and may way too long.  I don't see much appeal among any of them.  Without a lot of research, maybe Ranger Suarez, Alonso or Okamoto, and Kim I like a lot, 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

A lot of those predictions seem too long, and may way too long.  I don't see much appeal among any of them.  Without a lot of research, maybe Ranger Suarez, Alonso or Okamoto, and Kim I like a lot, 

I almost mentioned Kim.

We could get Alonso and Kim for close to $50M.

1B Alonso

2B Story

SS Kim

3B Mayer

[Hitch]

I don't think we're signing a single free agent starting pitcher. 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

I don't think we're signing a single free agent starting pitcher. 

That would break a long streak, but if we trade for one, I agree.

(We may sign another Sandoval type or another Criswell type, although I think we originally signed him to a MiLB deal.)

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/7/2025 at 6:13 AM, moonslav59 said:

At those prices the only one I might sign would be Ranger Suarez. (A distant second would be Imai.)

I'm thinking these guys might be more likely targets:

Merrill Kelly 37 (due to age and shorter term deal)

Nick Martinez 35 (same)

Jose Quintana 37, Justin Verlander 43, Max Scherzer 41, Tyler Anderson 36 (1 year deal and bridge to the kids)

Adrian Houser 33 or Jordan Montgomery 33(cause this is what the Sox do)

Michael Lorenzen 34

Shota Imanaga (if he passes and in-depth physical)

If 2-3 years or less....

King 31, Gio 30, Woodruff 33, Littell 30, Eflin 32, Mahle 31

how many more years do we keep doing "one year bridge to the kids" ?

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

That would break a long streak, but if we trade for one, I agree.

(We may sign another Sandoval type or another Criswell type, although I think we originally signed him to a MiLB deal.)

i fully expect another Sandoval, Criswell, Fulmer, Hendriks....... type signing because they have all worked out great so far and I am sure I'm missing a few too.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i fully expect another Sandoval, Criswell, Fulmer, Hendriks....... type signing because they have all worked out great so far and I am sure I'm missing a few too.

my expectations as well. or some really old dude, like Merrill Kelly.

funny they gave up on Pivetta last year, but he goes to San Diego for relatively cheap deal and is one of the top pitchers in the league. his 5.3 bWAR. ranks 7th in the league, one spot ahead of Dodgers ace Yamamoto. how does he go from cream of the crap to cream of the crop? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

how many more years do we keep doing "one year bridge to the kids" ?

I'm against the idea.

At times, I'm only suggesting what I think might happen.

Other times, I suggest what I want to happen and try to stay within reasonable budget (JH) considerations.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i fully expect another Sandoval, Criswell, Fulmer, Hendriks....... type signing because they have all worked out great so far and I am sure I'm missing a few too.

Criswell worked out fine, especially for the money. I don't mind MiLB signings like Fulmer.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

my expectations as well. or some really old dude, like Merrill Kelly.

That's what I expect, too. The added bonus is that he's not coming off an injury. This will thrill JH just enough to say yes on a 2 year deal. (Maybe add a 3rd year option with buyout to cut down on the tax line AAV calculations.)

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That would break a long streak, but if we trade for one, I agree.

(We may sign another Sandoval type or another Criswell type, although I think we originally signed him to a MiLB deal.)

you wait--Criswell will turn out to be nothing more than a fill-in/bottom of the rotation guy