Article: Alex Bregman Opts Out, Exactly As Red Sox Planned

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Write an article and say that Suarez is a DH and maybe you will single-handedly take 20m/yr out of his pocket? He'll prob be mad at you tho

Moon can make it up to him in Buc-ee's endorsements. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd sign Suarez for 1B and back-up 3Bman to oft-injured Mayer.

His power blows Bregman away. His age limits the largeness and longness of any deal he signs.

ISO since 2021

.224 Suarez

.184 Bregman

Sox Iso leaders since 2021 (600+ PAs)

.239 Devers

.211 Casas (one reason I am far from giving up on him)

.209 Abreu (why I keep him over Duran, plus his D)

.204 JD

.191 Dalbec (higher than Breggie)

.185 Duran (about the same as Breggie_

.179 Turner, .713 Bogey, .168 Story & Romy

2025: 300+ PAs

.232 Devers (TRADED)

.223 Abreu (Need to keep him)

.189 Bregman (FA)

.185 Duran (in decline)

.179 Narvaez (great from the C position!)

.178 Romy (can he go beyond a platoon role?)

.171 Anthony (should improve greatly as he reached mid 20's)

.170 Story (our HR leader)

.165 Rafaela

Others:

.214 Refsnyder in 209 PAs

.173 Mayer in 136 PAs- should improve like Anthony

You talked me into a big bat or two being our top priority, this winter. Don't try and talk me out of it! LOL!

Bregman is a good bat but not great, and he lacks the power we need.

Don't be surprised if Bregman gets more more money than Suarez (more years, maybe not more more AAV.)

Im not trying to talk you out of anything.  Im simply stating that your "fair" contract to Bregman is BELOW what he opted out of, so you think Suarez is better AND cheaper.  Well, hed have to be a lot cheaper since there appears to be a significant gap between where you and Bregman think Bregman should land.

If Bregman gets 4/160, its hard to see Suarez going for 2/50.

But you answered my q, and you are willing to give suarez a higher aav than I thought you had in mind, which makes him a possibility and us a candidate for him.

[drewski6]

If we trade Duran for Lodolo and sign Suarez to replace Bregman, the offense is worse.  And I dont care how many worms Roman Anthony kills, hes not going to make that okay.

 

[mvp 78]

I'm glad he opted out. I don't want him 4 years from now TBH. The mediocre version of Bregman is an unathletic, punch and judy 3b. It's not worth 40M. It was worth it for a year with opt outs. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If we trade Duran for Lodolo and sign Suarez to replace Bregman, the offense is worse.  And I dont care how many worms Roman Anthony kills, hes not going to make that okay.

 

If they signed Suarez and O'Hearn, they'd be better off offensively than if they had Duran and Bregman.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not trying to talk you out of anything.  Im simply stating that your "fair" contract to Bregman is BELOW what he opted out of, so you think Suarez is better AND cheaper.  Well, hed have to be a lot cheaper since there appears to be a significant gap between where you and Bregman think Bregman should land.

If Bregman gets 4/160, its hard to see Suarez going for 2/50.

But you answered my q, and you are willing to give suarez a higher aav than I thought you had in mind, which makes him a possibility and us a candidate for him.

Suarez will likely cost more than the $90M/3 you maxed out on Breggie for, but I'd do it. He may just get 3-4 years at his age. I get the risk involved with a decline coming from Suarez, but I'd pay him a higher AAV than I would Bregman, and I think the long years is what scares JH more than anything. (See the Bregman deal and opt outs and the Devers contract dump.)

We need power. I'd like Alonso or Schwarber, but both will probably be out of JH's range and both are more DH types than 1Bmen. Of course, Suarez might be no  better at 1B than they are, but all 3 should be better than Casas. (I see Casas as our eventual DH.)

I could see  Okamoto and Suarez signings and trade for a pitcher. Maybe Suarez and Hoskins, but we'd suffer at 3B defense once again. Maybe we go with Mayer at 3B, Suarez at 1B and trade for Marte, but then we need to sign the dreaded FA SP'er.

[jad]

What's the problem?  Breslow just said he'll sign both Bregman and Bellinger for what he saved from Devers, which is FANTASTIC, since both apparently have agreed to deep discounts and will be signing at about 15mil/year!  Eaat your hearts out, haters!

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the signed Suarez and O'Hearn, they'd be better off offensively than if they had Duran and Bregman.

I agree, and I don't see Anthony being a step down from Duran.

Adding Suarez plus Hoskins/O'Hearn or Naylor would be a plus over Bregman and Lowe/Toro.

Losing Duran does hurt the offense, but with Masa as our DH, there is no room for the OF rotation at DH idea. Trade Masa and maybe we can keep Duran.

[moonslav59]

Just now, jad said:

What's the problem?  Breslow just said he'll sign both Bregman and Bellinger for what he saved from Devers, which is FANTASTIC, since both apparently have agreed to deep discounts and will be signing at about 15mil/year!  Eaat your hearts out, haters!

It's total money not AAV, if he did even think that. Devers is owed about $240M/8.

Bregman might get $120M/4 andBellinger might get close to the same.

 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Suarez will likely cost more than the $90M/3 you maxed out on Breggie for, but I'd do it. He may just get 3-4 years at his age. I get the risk involved with a decline coming from Suarez, but I'd pay him a higher AAV than I would Bregman, and I think the long years is what scares JH more than anything. (See the Bregman deal and opt outs and the Devers contract dump.)

We need power. I'd like Alonso or Schwarber, but both will probably be out of JH's range and both are more DH types than 1Bmen. Of course, Suarez might be no  better at 1B than they are, but all 3 should be better than Casas. (I see Casas as our eventual DH.)

I could see  Okamoto and Suarez signings and trade for a pitcher. Maybe Suarez and Hoskins, but we'd suffer at 3B defense once again. Maybe we go with Mayer at 3B, Suarez at 1B and trade for Marte, but then we need to sign the dreaded FA SP'er.

Like I said, I didnt realize you were thinking this much $$ for suarez and i thought you thought hed be a steal, and i was worried that you would bound to be disappointed because convincing a player why he doesnt deserve $x when he has a contract offer in hand for that $ hardly works. Not directing that at you but so many conversations ive had in the past, just assuming that player x will sign for a specified amount of money/years because the person telling me this thinks they can justify it.

But going above 90m for suarez does make it feel like hes a real possibility. I agree that JH seems to hate long term commitments so maybe keep going after guys on short term, but you dry up the budget fast this year because you give the higher AAV to compensate less on the back end, and I understand why people clamor for it, but it does kind of overlook inflation.  And the upside.  Sign a guy for term and he breaks out, now you have a steal. You dont really get that on a 1 yr deal.

But im good with everything in your first paragraph. 

And regarding your third paragraph, yeah, it does seem like we arent in this awesome position going forward and we need to get creative.  We need to improve the hitting, and pitching, while losing Bregman and dealing with significant raises that dry up a lot of the money saved.

I think we are going to need to snake someone.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Like I said, I didnt realize you were thinking this much $$ for suarez and i thought you thought hed be a steal, and i was worried that you would bound to be disappointed because convincing a player why he doesnt deserve $x when he has a contract offer in hand for that $ hardly works. Not directing that at you but so many conversations ive had in the past, just assuming that player x will sign for a specified amount of money/years because the person telling me this thinks they can justify it.

But going above 90m for suarez does make it feel like hes a real possibility. I agree that JH seems to hate long term commitments so maybe keep going after guys on short term, but you dry up the budget fast this year because you give the higher AAV to compensate less on the back end, and I understand why people clamor for it, but it does kind of overlook inflation.  And the upside.  Sign a guy for term and he breaks out, now you have a steal. You dont really get that on a 1 yr deal.

But im good with everything in your first paragraph. 

And regarding your third paragraph, yeah, it does seem like we arent in this awesome position going forward and we need to get creative.  We need to improve the hitting, and pitching, while losing Bregman and dealing with significant raises that dry up a lot of the money saved.

I think we are going to need to snake someone.

I can see my wording was not that clear.

I know AAV is important, due to the tax line, so Suarez might end up being more than Bregman. Paying a higher AAV for a big drop on D is not all that appealing, but I want Suarez at 1B and back-up 3B for Mayer. Having Mayer at 3B also makes 2B a priority (or SS if we move Story to 2B.) That's not appealing, either, but we need that big bat.

We both seem to agree that Alonso & Schwarber are likely too expensive for JH and will likely get 1-3 more years than Suarez. That's why my focus is on Suarez.

The second bat should be 2B or 3B (Mayer to SS and Story to 2B.) That can be via trade for K Marte of FA for Polanco. If we don't trade major pitching for Marte, maybe we can get by with our current pitching staff plus a minor addition or topping out with Merrill Kelly, but I think Suarez, Kelly and Marte is too expensive for JH, despite losing Devers, Bregman, Gio & Buehler. The extensions that kick in are significant.

AAV

3.8> 28.3 Crochet +24.5

Min> 16,3 Anthony +15.5

Min> 7.5 Campbell +7.0

That's $57M added AVV, then this...

Plus 10.3 for Hicks and Duran from 3.8 to 8.0 & Chapman from 10.3 to 13.3 and some arb raises.

This cuts sharply into all the "savings" we've drooled over. If JH wants to reset the tax, there is not enough to add two large and long contracts, let alone 3, unless we trade some salary, too.

I'm not going with the broken record of trading Masa and Hicks, but these guys offer some salary relief that could be just enough to allow us to add 3 players via free agency or trade. (Some of the trade ideas do not involve huge salary gains.)

First of all, non tender Lowe. $10-12M arb due.

$8M Duran plus 2 more arbs

$7.5M Campbell (8 more years plus options)

$6.3M Rafaela (6 more years)

~$4M Houck (plus one more arb)

~$3M Crawford arb (+ 2 more arbs)

Abreu is still pre-arb, and that is one reason why I avoid trading him over Duran.

Trading Story and his $23.3M x 2 is not realistic, especially when our hole is at 2B and 3B.

 

 

[Kimmi]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

If Bregman opts out just say thanks, but NO thanks. Bregman has 2 yrs, and $80M on the table no matter how it’s constructed,and doesn’t deserve anymore than that, or for a longer time IMO. Some say he tailed off the last part of the season, but after his hot start, which was done batting behind Raffy he ended up BA wise at 273, which is his career average, and he hadn’t seen that since 2019. Offering him more than $80M, and for longer than 2 more years is not a good deal to me for the Red Sox looking at his whole body of work, and not just his hot start.

The saving grace of Bregman's contract was that it was only for 3 years.  Even with that, the $40M a year was a gross overpay.  I would like to have Bregman back, but I agree that offering him any larger/longer of a contract than he already had with the Red Sox would not be a good idea.

I guess we'll have to watch him play for another team next year.

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be okay with Mayer.  You have to play the kids at some point.

I don't have time to read through all of the threads, so this is the first post I've seen of yours.  Good to see you JoeyB.

I am okay with Mayer at 3B.  I'm also okay with Casas at 1B, and maybe even Campbell at 2B.  That would be my dream scenario if they all worked out, but that's a big if.  Regardless of what the Red Sox decide to do, they need to have better back up plans than they did this year.  

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If they signed Suarez and O'Hearn, they'd be better off offensively than if they had Duran and Bregman.

Ummmm… no.

Last year:

Suarez plus O’Hearn - 6.6 oWAR

Bregman plus Duran - 7.0 oWAR 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I want nothing to do with E. Suarez. Has anybody seen him in the postseason? Guy's on a loaded offense, and he has 12 Ks in 29 ABs for a 41% K-rate. He looks like Rafaela after a whole winter diet of Papi protein shakes, hacking at every single pitch.

And it's not quite a slump. He had a regular season 36% K-rate for Seattle. 

The Red Sox need more power, but the last thing they need is more all-or-nothing strikeout artists -- especially at some of the prices typed around here. It'd be cheaper to just bring back Tony Armas, and have hit BP off Tony Armas Junior.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Ummmm… no.

Last year:

Suarez plus O’Hearn - 6.6 oWAR

Bregman plus Duran - 7.0 oWAR 

The claim was offensively. It's close, but edge to S & O

OPS+

126 Suarez 

125 O'Hearn 

____________________

128 Bregman 

114 Duran 

 

[urban cowboy]

21 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Mayer in AAA is fantastic depth, but we may have too many holes and not enough resources to allow for this.  But if Mayer is your starting 3b, and story is your ss , you are starting with 2 guys with an injury history and who knows who plays 2b.  You will be seeing a lot of noodlebats, once the injuries start.

I find it likley that Bregman and his agent understand the market better than we do.  Could be wrong, but I suspect Bregman will get longer term at a similar AAV, so if you think this is a blessing in disguise, I have to think we'll get less for same money :/

The challenge with that is bregman is also "injury prone."

[mvp 78]

46 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

The challenge with that is bregman is also "injury prone."

My worry is the age causing more injuries like this year and him just wearing down. I like the player. I like what he brings to the table. I just don't like the  price tag. 

[notin]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I want nothing to do with E. Suarez. Has anybody seen him in the postseason? Guy's on a loaded offense, and he has 12 Ks in 29 ABs for a 41% K-rate. He looks like Rafaela after a whole winter diet of Papi protein shakes, hacking at every single pitch.

And it's not quite a slump. He had a regular season 36% K-rate for Seattle. 

The Red Sox need more power, but the last thing they need is more all-or-nothing strikeout artists -- especially at some of the prices typed around here. It'd be cheaper to just bring back Tony Armas, and have hit BP off Tony Armas Junior.

Who are all these high home run/low strikeout guys the Sox need?

Juan Soto is probably the closest thing, and he still strikes out 17% of the time.

More home runs would be a good thing, but it’s more than likely going to come with more strikeouts…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Who are all these high home run/low strikeout guys the Sox need?

Juan Soto is probably the closest thing, and he still strikes out 17% of the time.

More home runs would be a good thing, but it’s more than likely going to come with more strikeouts…

They're out there. I've been advocating trading for Diaz and signing Bichette. They're not 40 HR guys, but 25 with a ton more contact and less than 20% K-rate. That type of hitter gives the Sox better balance -- starting with replacing Bregman with two bats with his profile.

You mentioned Ketel Marte, Josh Bell and Cody Bellinger -- they've all improved their K-rates as they've aged. I'll take any of them over a swing-and-miss goon.

Josh Naylor is a winner, bringing consistent energy and contact to a line-up. Jorge Polanco looks better than ever. Kyle Tucker might be too expensive, but how much prospect capital would it take to shake Vinnie P. loose from the Royals? If the Sox could persuade KC, I'd immediately learn how to spell his last name...

[notin]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They're out there. I've been advocating trading for Diaz and signing Bichette. They're not 40 HR guys, but 25 with a ton more contact and less than 20% K-rate. That type of hitter gives the Sox better balance -- starting with replacing Bregman with two bats with his profile.

You mentioned Ketel Marte, Josh Bell and Cody Bellinger -- they've all improved their K-rates as they've aged. I'll take any of them over a swing-and-miss goon.

Josh Naylor is a winner, bringing consistent energy and contact to a line-up. Jorge Polanco looks better than ever. Kyle Tucker might be too expensive, but how much prospect capital would it take to shake Vinnie P. loose from the Royals? If the Sox could persuade KC, I'd immediately learn how to spell his last name...

Pasquantino is a Poor Man’s Mike Greenwell (RIP); he rarely strikes out because he rarely sees three pitches.   There are a few others on here who use aggression as their form of plate discipline.

Polanco was the underrated bat, although postseason exposure could change that.  But he has no real position, at least not one he is good at.

Josh Naylor is a 25 HR hitter the same way Yandy Diaz is one; he did it once.  Hes a good hitter but not someone to fix a power outage.  Plus he looks like the villain from a Spaghetti Western, and that needs to be held against him at some point…

[Duran Is The Man]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Pasquantino is a Poor Man’s Mike Greenwell (RIP); he rarely strikes out because he rarely sees three pitches.   There are a few others on here who use aggression as their form of plate discipline.

Polanco was the underrated bat, although postseason exposure could change that.  But he has no real position, at least not one he is good at.

Josh Naylor is a 25 HR hitter the same way Yandy Diaz is one; he did it once.  Hes a good hitter but not someone to fix a power outage.  Plus he looks like the villain from a Spaghetti Western, and that needs to be held against him at some point…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Josh Naylor is a 25 HR hitter the same way Yandy Diaz is one; he did it once. 

Jarren, Wily, Tris, Masa, Romy, Ref, Ceddanne, Narvey, KC, Hammy, Sogie, Eatonotscoring, Mayer, Password, the Wonger and the Roman Candle have all hit 25 homers nonce.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Who are all these high home run/low strikeout guys the Sox need?

Juan Soto is probably the closest thing, and he still strikes out 17% of the time.

More home runs would be a good thing, but it’s more than likely going to come with more strikeouts…

Okamoto has a k% below 20. I'll take an average k% over something at 30 in NPB TBH. 

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Pasquantino is a Poor Man’s Mike Greenwell (RIP); he rarely strikes out because he rarely sees three pitches.   There are a few others on here who use aggression as their form of plate discipline.

Polanco was the underrated bat, although postseason exposure could change that.  But he has no real position, at least not one he is good at.

Josh Naylor is a 25 HR hitter the same way Yandy Diaz is one; he did it once.  Hes a good hitter but not someone to fix a power outage.  Plus he looks like the villain from a Spaghetti Western, and that needs to be held against him at some point…

Naylor would definitely not hit 25 at Fenway. I like his demeanor, but his swing profile is a bad fit in BOS. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Jarren, Wily, Tris, Masa, Romy, Ref, Ceddanne, Narvey, KC, Hammy, Sogie, Eatonotscoring, Mayer, Password, the Wonger and the Roman Candle have all hit 25 homers nonce.

Let's comp 21 year old Naylor to 21 year old Anthony...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Let's comp 21 year old Naylor to 21 year old Anthony...

Nah, I see Naylor as more of a Jonny Gomes type. Yankee fans already hate him, so he's got that going for him.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Nah, I see Naylor as more of a Jonny Gomes type. Yankee fans already hate him, so he's got that going for him.

He taking a Gomes contract? 

[illinoisredsox]

4 hours ago, urban cowboy said:

The challenge with that is bregman is also "injury prone."

I don’t get the injury prone narrative.  He missed a couple months with a left quad strain in 2021 and he missed a couple months with a right quad strain this year.  His first 3 full seasons (2017-19), he played in 155, 157 and 156 games.  2020 was Covid.  From 2022-24, he played 155 161 and 145 games.  That’s not the history of an injury prone player.

If you want to say that the money he wants  isn’t worth it based on his overall career numbers, we can have that conversation.  Injury history isn’t a valid reason IMO.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

I don’t get the injury prone narrative.  He missed a couple months with a left quad strain in 2021 and he missed a couple months with a right quad strain this year.  His first 3 full seasons (2017-19), he played in 155, 157 and 156 games.  2020 was Covid.  From 2022-24, he played 155 161 and 145 games.  That’s not the history of an injury prone player.

If you want to say his contract isn’t worth it based on his overall career numbers, we can have that conversation.  Injury history isn’t a valid reason IMO.

Missing significant time in 40% of post COVID seasons due to quad injuries isn't being injury prone? 

It's only going to get worse as he gets older.