A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I’ve got some bad news for you. No one is eating crow.

It's like that in real life as well.  Just imho, I rather enjoy being proven wrong.  Admitting one's mistakes is a great way to learn.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think it is fairly obvious that a good record beats a bad record, but thank you for bringing that to the court's attention.

But if you want to determine how well a team is playing Py W/L is a better descriptor than record.  I could show you some numbers, but I doubt you'd look at them.

Who was it who said you are what your record says you are? I would rather have a better record, and playing bad than a bad record when SOMETHING says you’re playing better. I could care less how well a team is supposedly playing if their record doesn’t match it, so you’re right i wouldn’t look at any numbers outside of a W-L record.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Who was it who said you are what your record says you are? I would rather have a better record, and playing bad than a bad record when SOMETHING says you’re playing better. I could care less how well a team is supposedly playing if their record doesn’t match it, so you’re right i wouldn’t look at any numbers outside of a W-L record.

I'd make a friendly honor wager that anyone whose record is 75 points above or below their Py W/L at the end of April, with spend the rest of the season closer to their Py W/L than their actual record.  And I won't even bother to research it before making that wager.

[moonslav59]

The trade will make beating the L. A. Skubals... errrr... I mean ... Dodgers that much more satisfying.

[Larry Cook]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The trade will make beating the L. A. Skubals... errrr... I mean ... Dodgers that much more satisfying.

How sad is it that you can give up 3 studs from your farm and still have a great farm system, but now you have Skubal too

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

How sad is it that you can give up 3 studs from your farm and still have a great farm system, but now you have Skubal too

i'm glad Skubal went to the NL, and when we beat the Dodgers it will be even sweeter.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have the 3rd best record in the AL, joining two other ALE teams. They are 7th best in all MLB with the Yanks as the closest team.

-6 GB TBR

-2.5 NYY

+1.0 CWS

+3.0 HOU

+4.0 MIN & CLE (T3rd WC team)

+4.5 TEX

____________________

Sox OPS Leaders:

.943 Willson

.798 Ceddanne

.773 Andruw

.747 Wilyer

.708 Connor & Masataka

.705 Caleb & Isiah

.701 Anthony as in Seigler

_______________________

ERA Starters:

2.74 Bennett

2.93 Gray

3.15 Suarez

3.30 Suarez

3.31 Sandoval

ERA RP'ers

1.67 Chapman

2.03 Whitlock

2.08 Gamboa (in AAA) & Guerrero

2.66 Samaniego (In AAA, now)

2.84 Moran

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 27-5 since June 25th, when we swept the Yanks in 4.

It's nice to think the Yanks helped us break from our funk.

The Yanks are also next in line. (2.5 game difference.)

This is historic. Not just the 15 game streak. We've gone 12-5 sandwiching the streak.

[Old Red]

I haven’t done this in quite a while so right now all the Red Sox have to do is go 22-30 the rest of the way to get to that once 500 number that looked so far away when the Red Sox were 14 under. 2 games back of the Yankees in the loss column, and closing , so as Gomer would say Shazam.👏

[cp176]

`

It has been a magical season.  I’m glad Tolle is still in a Red Sox uniform.  Trading anybody for anybody right now might possibly screw up what we already have.  A group of guys many of whom have either been journeymen or career minor leaguers are playing together and winning.  Whatever the formula is it’s working.  

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, cp176 said:

`

It has been a magical season.  I’m glad Tolle is still in a Red Sox uniform.  Trading anybody for anybody right now might possibly screw up what we already have.  A group of guys many of whom have either been journeymen or career minor leaguers are playing together and winning.  Whatever the formula is it’s working.  

On paper it doesn’t look like the most talented group, but on the field they’re playing like it.

[cp176]

47 minutes ago, Old Red said:

On paper it doesn’t look like the most talented group, but on the field they’re playing like it.

It’s got to drive the data driven analytical folks nuts because in many ways it just isn’t explainable.  it’s a whole bunch of professionals playing as one for each other.  

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

1 hour ago, cp176 said:

`

It has been a magical season.  I’m glad Tolle is still in a Red Sox uniform.  Trading anybody for anybody right now might possibly screw up what we already have.  A group of guys many of whom have either been journeymen or career minor leaguers are playing together and winning.  Whatever the formula is it’s working.  

This is the first Red Sox team where I look at the starting pitcher and feel confident nearly every game.  They don't have their ace but they have a stable of #2's and high end #3's.  This is the deepest rotation I can ever remember.  

[cp176]

20 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

This is the first Red Sox team where I look at the starting pitcher and feel confident nearly every game.  They don't have their ace but they have a stable of #2's and high end #3's.  This is the deepest rotation I can ever remember.  

They’ve made baseball fun for me to pay attention to again.   

[Duran Is The Man]

55 minutes ago, cp176 said:

They’ve made baseball fun for me to pay attention to again.   

same here. losing every day gets old really fast. especially with the resources this franchise has.

[cp176]

14 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

same here. losing every day gets old really fast. especially with the resources this franchise has.

We just keep scratching our heads and saying how long can this roster keep this up and this roster just keeps on keeping it up!

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, cp176 said:

It’s got to drive the data driven analytical folks nuts because in many ways it just isn’t explainable.

I tend to think of things from an overall perspective.  The full-season Py W/L is almost exactly what many expected (90 wins).

[moonslav59]

We've won 8 straight series and 9 out of 10. That's not easy to do, especially when you figure we beat some good teams:

4/4 v TBR #1 AL

4/4 v NYY #2 AL

2/2 v LAD #2 MLB, but was #1 when we beat them

3/3 v CWS #4 AL but were #3 when we beat them

2/3 v BAL & TOR who were in the race when we beat them

3/3 v NYM & LAA who have not been good all year.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

same here. losing every day gets old really fast. especially with the resources this franchise has.

I’d say since the Rockies series this has been the most gratifying summer I’ve had as a Red Sox fan (25 years)

the lows have made the highs so fun. Other than I’m a happiness hedge bettor, it’s cost me $4k this month. 
 

[moonslav59]

While our 26 man roster looks very different from the opening day roster, almost everyone was in the system when the season began. In that sense, this is the same team that was hovering near the worst team in the AL over the first two months of the season.

This team is a prime example for showing that Wins and Losses are not always the best indicator of how good or bad a team actually is. Many and mostly W-Ls are pretty close to it, but not always.

That is one reason I always try to make the distinction between saying ...

"This team sucks!"

vs

"We are playing like crap."

Same with players:

"He sucks"

vs

"He's playing really badly."

Teams and players slump and streak for good and bad. There were times I wondered if the 2025 was a fluke, since I felt like we improved upon that team over the winter- on paper. I fully realize how "on paper" does not always translate to wins, and the game is played on the field not on paper, but the team looked pretty damn good to me, despite the lack of a second or even third really good hitter with power.

I've always felt that most winning teams have really good pitching, especially at the top of the rotation and a closer + set up man. We had that. We also had the pitching depth that was probably the best this team ever had. (Maybe 2025 was second.) That depth has basically carried this team all year, along with a pen that quite frankly has stunned the whole league.

While the rotation has rightfully gotten a lot of attention, the pen ranks 2nd in MLB in fWAR, and the starters 8th. What makes that 2nd place ranking even more remarkable is that fWAR is greatly influenced by IP, and our pen ranks 18th in IP. That is unreal! It also shows how deep our starters have gone, despite using openers in many games. ERA- has our pen 1st and our starters 7th.

The starter rankings would be much higher had we not started the season with Crochet & Bello stinking up the place. They deserve to be counted, but if you look at the May 1st to now numbers, our starters rank 2nd in fWAR and  3rd in ERA-. The point about our pen was not meant to disparage the rotation. They have been nothing short of amazing.

I won't get into the defense, but it has been steady all year and at nearly every position.

Of course the major turnaround was mostly generated by the major batting turnaround. I'll just submit one set of numbers here: OPS by month ranking

28th MAR/APR (Team record: 12-19)

8th May (13-14 is perhaps the most puzzling month)

24th June (12-14)

5th July (21-4- compare this to May)

I gotta say this team has pulled together nicely. There is still a couple months to go, and have we have seen, a team can turn on a dime, so nothing can or should be taken for granted, but this season has a magical quality to it- kinda like 2013.

I'm not predicting a ring in 2026, but we have arrived as a top MLB contender- not just a top AL contender. I'm hoping Brez makes a couple significant moves to improve a couple weaker areas, but I'm also aware that this team was being built for long term success. The amount of younger players with 3+ years of control is very high, and despite the farm graduating so many key players in the past 2-3 seasons, it still looks pretty strong from the DSL/FCL to SAL & GRE to POR & WOO. The pitching issue we've had for decades looks as strong as ever, and all we might lose is Gray and Sandoval. That's not peanuts, but we have so many SP'ers on the IL, that counting on 2 to take their place is not a huge ask. The everyday player outlook is even more longer term set-up. We only lose IKF, this year and Story & Yoshida next year. None of these 3 are major components of our success. Duran leaves after 2027, and many want him gone, now. That's it!

I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm, but what the HELL! Why? This team is for real, so why not expect we go far?

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox sent Jojo Ingrassia to DET as the PTBNL for Jahmai Jones.

Ingrassia had shown some flash before his injury, namely 193 Ks and only 78 Hits in 119 IP, but the 46 BBs is the issue.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe the overall record at this point was expected by many Red Sox fans and media before the season began, but let's not pretend certain factors to get here weren't a total surprise.

The Sox are on about an 86-win pace. If you knew preseason that the starting rotation would get basically nothing from Crochet, Bello and the departed Giolito, would you still expect that? Maybe, with Gray and Suarez aboard, and progress from the young guys. Still, that means every new thing had to go right... right?

And what if I told you that in the greatest month of the history of the franchise, one of the back-up infielders in the Durbin trade would be the primary shortstop and lead the team in batting average?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox sent Jojo Ingrassia to DET as the PTBNL for Jahmai Jones.

Ingrassia had shown some flash before his injury, namely 193 Ks and only 78 Hits in 119 IP, but the 46 BBs is the issue.

Jojo was a man who thought he was a Red Sox, but he knew it couldn't last.

[moonslav59]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Jojo was a man who thought he was a Red Sox, but he knew it couldn't last.

Jojo was left his home in El Cajon, California

for some Ridge Yak grass

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Maybe the overall record at this point was expected by many Red Sox fans and media before the season began, but let's not pretend certain factors to get here weren't a total surprise.

The Sox are on about an 86-win pace. If you knew preseason that the starting rotation would get basically nothing from Crochet, Bello and the departed Giolito, would you still expect that? Maybe, with Gray and Suarez aboard, and progress from the young guys. Still, that means every new thing had to go right... right?

And what if I told you one of the back-up infielders in the Durbin trade would be the primary shortstop and lead the team in batting average in the greatest month of the history of the franchise...

The Monasterio and Seigler additions were bonuses nobody saw coming. Funny how after a good game by DHam, the talk was about how we suck at getting the most out of our infielders.

Durbin's start to 2026 was a bit surprising, but it was just his second year, so many of us felt maybe we just mis-valued him before the trade.

We'd heard the same about pitching after the Priester, Harrison & Drohan trades, too.

It's funny how evaluations work out. Many were not too excited when we traded for Harrison and Priester, then acted like Brez was an idiot when he trade them away. Everybody hated the Dustin May trade, and now we see him doing pretty well for the Cards. Anyone complaining about letting him "get away?" LMAO. (Anyone want him back?) Do we blame Brez for not resigning May? Nope.

We still have a poster calling Brez "BresLOW" and the "1 2th pick." Maybe he'll name his next bowling team "Twelfth Pick."

It's hard for some to show respect after a long spell of disrespecting a guy and position.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Monasterio and Seigler additions were bonuses nobody saw coming. Funny how after a good game by DHam, the talk was about how we suck at getting the most out of our infielders.

Durbin's start to 2026 was a bit surprising, but it was just his second year, so many of us felt maybe we just mis-valued him before the trade.

We'd heard the same about pitching after the Priester, Harrison & Drohan trades, too.

It's funny how evaluations work out. Many were not too excited when we traded for Harrison and Priester, then acted like Brez was an idiot when he trade them away. Everybody hated the Dustin May trade, and now we see him doing pretty well for the Cards. Anyone complaining about letting him "get away?" LMAO. (Anyone want him back?) Do we blame Brez for not resigning May? Nope.

We still have a poster calling Brez "BresLOW" and the "1 2th pick." Maybe he'll name his next bowling team "Twelfth Pick."

It's hard for some to show respect after a long spell of disrespecting a guy and position.

Wha, wha, wha. Disrespect to poor poor bresLOW, and yes he wears #12 on his back. No other venue that I know of whines, and cries about stuff like this, and the criticism is a lot milder on here than other venues. Why is that?🤔

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And what if I told you one of the back-up infielders in the Durbin trade would be the primary shortstop and lead the team in batting average in the greatest month of the history of the franchise...

Again, baseball is a game of wild variance, and some fans just look at short-term results.  110 games into the season, and we are roughly exactly where we should be.  And some guys will out-perform and some will under-perform.  

[UtahSox]

So basically we give up Connolly Early a MLB ready #3 starter for Mead and then 5 days later Nationals trade a LHB (which we need badly) for a couple top 20 prospects. Make this sh** make sense

[UtahSox]

Pirates lost again. What would it take to get Brandon Lowe??

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

9 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

So basically we give up Connolly Early a MLB ready #3 starter for Mead and then 5 days later Nationals trade a LHB (which we need badly) for a couple top 20 prospects. Make this sh** make sense

I was under the impression the Sox were looking for a RH bat at the time they traded for Mead.