A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I think Durbin would fit this team really well IF we get 2 more + power bats for 2027. His defense has been nothing less than incredible. 

I'd like a better bat at 3B, but I think we won't be looking to add a 3Bman.

We do need 2 major bats- 3 good ones would be fine, too.

Assuming we trade Duran and only count Story and Yoshida at best as depth, I see the following positions as the best areas to focus on:

***SS

 

*** Catcher

Then....

DH/OF (if 2B/3B instead, the DH might be Romy/Anthony/Duran, if not traded)

or

2B/3B with Durbin/RomyMayer filling the other.

Getting all 4 would be nice, but we are talking Brez, JH & Co. here. 3 is probably a pipe dream.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If you are referring to Bregman, there is a -0- chance that you move a GG 3B to 1B to accommodate Devers glove at 3rd.

I'd never even consider moving Bregman to 2B, let alone 1B.

I was for moving Devers to 1B over 3-4 years ago. Even when Casas looked promising, he sucked at 1B defense, and I suggested Casas to DH and Devers to 1B. Thatw as before we even had a decent replacement at 3B.

[moonslav59]

21 hours ago, notin said:

Do you think the Braves are happy with Murphy and Riley? 

Of course not, and that is the main reason they may take on salary dumps rather than pay part of their deals to trade them away. They might actually start Story, once healthy, and we know their luck with injury-prone ex Sox players is grand!

They may not mind Yoshida at DH, either. Their current PA  leader at DH is Dominic Smith (192) hitting .715. They could use Murphy at DH, but if you think Riley has declined too much to want, Murphy has batted .663 since 2024, so I'm not sure ATL wants him either. Yoshida has hit better than that and costs about the same AAV. (Murphy has 1 more year of control, I believe, so would cost more in total.)

We could send them Wong to offset losing Murphy, if they want him, but they already have Baldwin, Bart and others on their roster.

I'm not sure I want to bet on a Riley turn around and take on that massive contract, though. I think the Sox would say no. Maybe ATL, too.

[Old Red]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course not, and that is the main reason they may take on salary dumps rather than pay part of their deals to trade them away. They might actually start Story, once healthy, and we know their luck with injury-prone ex Sox players is grand!

They may not mind Yoshida at DH, either. Their current PA  leader at DH is Dominic Smith (192) hitting .715.

We could send them Wong to offset losing Murphy, if they want him, but they already have Baldwin, Bart and others on their roster.

I'm not sure I want to bet on a Riley turn around and take on that massive contract, though. I think the Sox would say no. Maybe ATL, too.

Murphy! 🙈🤭👎🤮

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts:

Gray (0.5 yrs), Chapman (1.5) & Duran (1.5) for Josh Hader (2.5 yrs) & Paredes (1.5 yrs) & $3M

Gray (0.5 yrs), Chapman (1.5) & Duran (1.5) & $3M for T Shaw (3.5) Swanson (3.5) & P Maton (1.5) 

[moonslav59]

Worst Seven Records in MLB 2026 and Payroll/Tax Rankings

36-55 LAA 15/17

37-54 COL 21/22

37-54 KCR 18/18

37-53 NYM 1/2

37-52 SFG 11/12

40-50 DET 10/10

40-48 BOS 12/6

Interesting to see just COL is in the bottom 3rd tier in spending. Most are mid 3rd tier.

If you divided into 2 tiers: 5 of the 7 teams are top tier in one sample and 4 of 7 in the Tax sample. 3 of the top 10 Tax sample teams have bottom 7 records. (4 of the top 12.)

[moonslav59]

So, Sandoval finally joins the MLB staff and will take Early's start or two.

What happens when Early returns? He is likely on an innings limit, so maybe we use him from the pen and keep Sandoval in the rotation, assuming he's doing okay.

Other pending staff moves could occur when and if Crochet ever gets healthy. I'm highly skeptical on Oviedo, Houck & Crawford returning this year. Could Bello, Kelly, Samaniego, Rivera or Uberstine eventually boot Watson off the roster, or are they just injury depth?

Guerrero seems like he's staying. Weissert & Slaten have struggled, but I doubt either gets demoted. 

MLB.com Injury Report:

Suarez: Day to Day

Early: Will get second opinion after MRI revealed inflammation.

Crochet: last updated June 22. "Improving but not quite ready to throw yet." and "No earlier than August."

Anthony: no new update. In FLA to "focus on rehab"

Casas: "Shut down...due to wrist hiccup."

Sogard is rehabbing, now, and may return in early July.

Story: "Sometime after all star break" and "Not at full speed, yet."

Mayer: "was shut down" and "after ASB."

IKF: "after ASB"

Oviedo: "started throwing program" and "no earlier than August." (last update June 14.)

Crawford: "Throwing plyo balls in FLA." August or Sept return

Houck: "started light mound work" and "aiming for late '26."

[UtahSox]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Sandoval finally joins the MLB staff and will take Early's start or two.

What happens when Early returns? He is likely on an innings limit, so maybe we use him from the pen and keep Sandoval in the rotation, assuming he's doing okay.

Other pending staff moves could occur when and if Crochet ever gets healthy. I'm highly skeptical on Oviedo, Houck & Crawford returning this year. Could Bello, Kelly, Samaniego, Rivera or Uberstine eventually boot Watson off the roster, or are they just injury depth?

Guerrero seems like he's staying. Weissert & Slaten have struggled, but I doubt either gets demoted. 

MLB.com Injury Report:

Suarez: Day to Day

Early: Will get second opinion after MRI revealed inflammation.

Crochet: last updated June 22. "Improving but not quite ready to throw yet." and "No earlier than August."

Anthony: no new update. In FLA to "focus on rehab"

Casas: "Shut down...due to wrist hiccup."

Sogard is rehabbing, now, and may return in early July.

Story: "Sometime after all star break" and "Not at full speed, yet."

Mayer: "was shut down" and "after ASB."

IKF: "after ASB"

Oviedo: "started throwing program" and "no earlier than August." (last update June 14.)

Crawford: "Throwing plyo balls in FLA." August or Sept return

Houck: "started light mound work" and "aiming for late '26."

Early is not gonna pitch again til spring training 2028 you heard it here 1st. TJ’s surgery impending. But in Boston fashion we will wait 60 days then realize it’s not improving opting for TJ’s in September 2026. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, UtahSox said:

Early is not gonna pitch again til spring training 2028 you heard it here 1st. TJ’s surgery impending. But in Boston fashion we will wait 60 days then realize it’s not improving opting for TJ’s in September 2026. 

elbow inflammation is often a precursor for TJS, but it can also be several other things. I hope it's not TJS. If he does need it, it would help to do it ASAP.

[notin]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Early is not gonna pitch again til spring training 2028 you heard it here 1st. TJ’s surgery impending. But in Boston fashion we will wait 60 days then realize it’s not improving opting for TJ’s in September 2026. 

If the Sox do sell, that’s fine.  
 

They can still have a rotation of Gray, Tolle, Bennett, Bello and Sandoval.  And at some point, hopefully Crawford and Crochet return.  If not, maybe we get our first look at Wehunt or Eyanson or a pitcher acquired from dealing Gray, Chapman, etc.

[moonslav59]

Missed starts by Sox starters in 2026:

11+ Crochet

1+ Early

17+ Houck

17+ Crawford

17 Sandoval

16+ Oviedo

(Bello, Tolle and Bennett missed starts due to GM or manager choice or demotion.)

We can argue about who the starting 5 would be, if everyone was 100% healthy, but I'd go with: 1 Crochet, 2 Suarez, 3 Gray, 4 Houck & 5 Crawfor 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Sox do sell, that’s fine.  
 

They can still have a rotation of Gray, Tolle, Bennett, Bello and Sandoval.  And at some point, hopefully Crawford and Crochet return.  If not, maybe we get our first look at Wehunt or Eyanson or a pitcher acquired from dealing Gray, Chapman, etc.

If they sell, Gray is gone.

[vegasbob]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Sox should still offer him arbitration.  He has shown he can hit and Boston needs that plus apparently he still has 3 options left…

Understand the peripheral benefits but he cannot hit if he can't rehabilitate and get on the field.  Maybe next year

[UtahSox]

 

[UtahSox]

 

[UtahSox]

Annnnnnnd just like that we are buyers again? I’m all for buying, but no rentals….. The buy must have a minimum of ‘27-28 control.