A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, iortiz said:

And yes, probably giving up Campbell/Mayer instead would have meant keeping Teel or Montgomery as well. 

That's the only point we're trying to make. They chose the wrong guy to deal, unless the ChiSox were adamant about Teel, though they already had a highly ranked C at the time (Quero). 

[mvp 78]

Back to back days of ABS challenge practices.

 

[UtahSox]

MVP you ready to welcome Willy? I am!

[vegasbob]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather have Campbell or Mayer than Meidroth. Meidroth is a fine player, but has a limited ceiling. He's a guy you can go out and get fairly easily. There are still higher hopes for Campbell and Mayer. 

Key words "higher hopes" vs higher ceiling. 

Not touting Meidrith, but Campbell and Mayer should be showing showing some incremental progress in their hitting, however slight to be considered good assets.

Campbell 's contract was like putting a chokehold on his value to any other team.  Ergo, eat it Breslow

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly have the fewest home runs at home this season with 17 roundtrippers.

The Seattle Mariners have the most home runs at home with 50 after another Wednesday afternoon.

How times have changed.

[vegasbob]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Being the better player today doesnt mean he will always be.

Campbell was sent back to work on things.  It’s possible that his light AAA numbers are impacted by this.  And depending on what he is working on, it could heavily steer his batting line negatively.

I doubt the Sox have given up on Campbell like you have.  

 

The contract prevents the Sox from giving up on KC, not that they should give up on a young player.

Reminds me of the Rusney Castillo case

[vegasbob]

18 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

MVP you ready to welcome Willy? I am!

I assume that the position for the RH hitter is DH or dependent on who moves for said slugger.

Don't you know CB is pushing very hard to get Masa in the deal up to the point if absorbing a big chunk of contract

[UtahSox]

4 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

I assume that the position for the RH hitter is DH or dependent on who moves for said slugger.

Don't you know CB is pushing very hard to get Masa in the deal up to the point if absorbing a big chunk of contract

Who you thinking?

[vegasbob]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

Who you thinking?

LAA Joe Adell .

[UtahSox]

16 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

LAA Joe Adell .

Hmmmm that would be not a big contract as he only has a year and a half left. He makes 5.2 this year and will probably make 9-10m next. He has really low AFV 15.1 ( lower than 2025-2026 production should be) on baseballtradevalues.com

I’d like that bat in our lineup right now for sure, but immediately not sure he is an improvement from JD at DH other than RH??

Unless you’re moving Rafaela to 2b, or trading JD or Roman is out all year idk if this makes a ton of sense. 
 

IMO because of the OF heating up, getting Roman back soonish I think Red Sox look to improve w/ RH bat that plays 3b, SS, or 2b. 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Hmmmm that would be not a big contract as he only has a year and a half left. He makes 5.2 this year and will probably make 9-10m next. He has really low AFV 15.1 ( lower than 2025-2026 production should be) on baseballtradevalues.com

I’d like that bat in our lineup right now for sure, but immediately not sure he is an improvement from JD at DH other than RH??

Unless you’re moving Rafaela to 2b, or trading JD or Roman is out all year idk if this makes a ton of sense. 
 

IMO because of the OF heating up, getting Roman back soonish I think Red Sox look to improve w/ RH bat that plays 3b, SS, or 2b. 

My thoughts on who lonely could be thinking of based on three assumptions:

1- Roman Anthony will be back.

2- Ceddanne Rafaela will continue to play center field.

3- The Red Sox will not trade Jarren Duran. (At least not now in this transaction) 

let’s go team by team and look at potential infield right-handed bats who fit what Buster Olney has been hinting at: productive veterans on significant contracts whose teams may be willing to move them.

New York Mets- The Mets are the first team that comes to mind. If the 2025 season didn’t work and the 2026 season is heading in the same direction, maybe ownership decides it’s time to reset and retool for next year.

The most obvious name would be Bo Bichette. He has always hit at Fenway, he’s a proven right-handed bat, and the Mets may decide they aren’t bringing him back after his current deal anyway. They’d probably have to eat some money, but the fit is obvious.

Another possibility is Marcus Semien. He’s still a productive player, but he’s 35 years old and owed a lot of money. If Francisco Lindor is returning and the Mets want to turn the page, maybe they’d rather give more playing time to younger players while moving Semien’s contract. Hopefully it’s not him, but if it is, maybe Boston would acquire him on significant subsidy from Mets.

Miami Marlins- I don’t see a fit here. The one player I really like is Otto Lopez. He plays excellent defense, gets on base, hits for average, and can handle both shortstop and second base. The problem is that he’s still in his arbitration years and doesn’t fit the “large contract veteran” profile. He’d cost actual prospects to acquire.

Colorado Rockies- Ezequiel Tovar is at least worth mentioning. He looked like a future star not long ago but has seen his production drop significantly. He’s still young and talented, but because he isn’t on a large contract, he doesn’t really fit the Buster Olney criteria. He’d also require legitimate prospect capital. Still, if the Red Sox wanted to buy low on a shortstop with upside, he’s an interesting name.

Los Angeles Angels- I just don’t see a major fit here. Maybe there are smaller moves involving players like Oswald Peraza, Yoán Moncada, or Jorge Soler, but none of them feel like the type of impact right-handed bat we’re talking about.

Minnesota Twins no one fits olneys quote: Maybe Byron Buxton becomes available??

He’s still an impact player when healthy and would immediately improve any lineup. The challenge is figuring out where he fits with Rafaela in center and Duran in the outfield. It probably requires a third team trade of one our outfielders and gets complicated quickly.

Kansas City Royals- My dream target remains Maikel Garcia. He’s exactly the type of player I would love to add. Great defender, quality bat, versatile, and entering his prime. Unfortunately, that’s also why Kansas City probably doesn’t want to move him.

the more realistic short-term option could be Salvador Perez. The Royals have catcher Carter Jensen coming, and if Kansas City were willing to eat salary, maybe Perez could be acquired relatively cheaply. Even at his age, he would add some serious punch to the lineup.

Houston Astros- The obvious name is Isaac Paredes. Houston has Cam Smith, who originally came up as a third baseman, and another young infielder in Xavier Neyens who has been hitting well and looks ready for big league opportunity, That could make Paredes even more expendable than he was in February. 

The second name is Jeremy Peña. Houston also has Brice Matthews developing, and if they believe they can replace Peña internally, perhaps they’d consider moving him while his value is high.

The third name is Carlos Correa. I don’t think this is likely, but if Houston were willing to eat a substantial portion of the contract, you could at least see the logic. He’s still only 31 and could have productive years ahead of him.

Of the Houston options, I think Paredes is by far the most likely.

San Francisco Giants- This is the team that makes the most sense to me. The Giants are in last place, have an expensive roster, and have several contracts that may not age particularly well. At the same time, they have a top prospect in Bryce Eldridge who needs at-bats. They also have Rafael Devers, who essentially has to play, and Casey Schmitt, who has broken out and is producing while making very little money. Between 1b, 3b and DH they have 4 guys Bryce Eldridge, Casey Shmitt, Rafi Devers and Matt Chapman. 

That creates a roster crunch. The obvious odd man out is Matt Chapman. He still plays excellent defense, is respected in the clubhouse, and can absolutely help a team. But he’s older, expensive, and perhaps no longer fits San Francisco’s long-term timeline. If the Giants are motivated to create payroll flexibility, Boston could potentially acquire him while San Francisco absorbs a significant portion of the remaining contract.

The other name we’ve discussed endlessly is Willy Adames. He’s only 30 years old, still has real power, and has multiple years remaining on a large contract. If the Giants decide they need financial flexibility and want to reshape the roster, Adames becomes a logical trade candidate.

Of all the names mentioned, the 5 that make the most sense to me in order of probability are:

1- Isaac Paredes

2- Matt Chapman

3- Willy Adames

4- Bo Bichette

5- Marcus Semien 

If Buster Olney is hearing about a veteran right-handed bat with a significant contract becoming available, my money is on one of these guys. 

[iortiz]

IMO they are done this season. Anthony is out and probably for the season and not sure how Crochet will come back. Whitlock is also already in IL already. Mayer is not hitting. Narvaez has regressed badly. Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras while good are not elite in my book. Duran while is improving, he’s still chasing fastballs above the zone. We still don’t have a legit 2nd baseman. Story is out and even if he returns I don’t expect anything from him. Gasper is a good discovery and IFK is a good story but who knows how much this is going to last especially IKF. Yoshida is an automatic groundout hitter. 

One struggling expensive bat won’t fix this anyways. 

Time to give most of the ABs to the youngsters including Campbell and sell all your “good” veteran assets to get something good in return. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

My thoughts on who lonely could be thinking of based on three assumptions:

1- Roman Anthony will be back.

2- Ceddanne Rafaela will continue to play center field.

3- The Red Sox will not trade Jarren Duran. (At least not now in this transaction) 

let’s go team by team and look at potential infield right-handed bats who fit what Buster Olney has been hinting at: productive veterans on significant contracts whose teams may be willing to move them.

New York Mets- The Mets are the first team that comes to mind. If the 2025 season didn’t work and the 2026 season is heading in the same direction, maybe ownership decides it’s time to reset and retool for next year.

The most obvious name would be Bo Bichette. He has always hit at Fenway, he’s a proven right-handed bat, and the Mets may decide they aren’t bringing him back after his current deal anyway. They’d probably have to eat some money, but the fit is obvious.

Another possibility is Marcus Semien. He’s still a productive player, but he’s 35 years old and owed a lot of money. If Francisco Lindor is returning and the Mets want to turn the page, maybe they’d rather give more playing time to younger players while moving Semien’s contract. Hopefully it’s not him, but if it is, maybe Boston would acquire him on significant subsidy from Mets.

Miami Marlins- I don’t see a fit here. The one player I really like is Otto Lopez. He plays excellent defense, gets on base, hits for average, and can handle both shortstop and second base. The problem is that he’s still in his arbitration years and doesn’t fit the “large contract veteran” profile. He’d cost actual prospects to acquire.

Colorado Rockies- Ezequiel Tovar is at least worth mentioning. He looked like a future star not long ago but has seen his production drop significantly. He’s still young and talented, but because he isn’t on a large contract, he doesn’t really fit the Buster Olney criteria. He’d also require legitimate prospect capital. Still, if the Red Sox wanted to buy low on a shortstop with upside, he’s an interesting name.

Los Angeles Angels- I just don’t see a major fit here. Maybe there are smaller moves involving players like Oswald Peraza, Yoán Moncada, or Jorge Soler, but none of them feel like the type of impact right-handed bat we’re talking about.

Minnesota Twins no one fits olneys quote: Maybe Byron Buxton becomes available??

He’s still an impact player when healthy and would immediately improve any lineup. The challenge is figuring out where he fits with Rafaela in center and Duran in the outfield. It probably requires a third team trade of one our outfielders and gets complicated quickly.

Kansas City Royals- My dream target remains Maikel Garcia. He’s exactly the type of player I would love to add. Great defender, quality bat, versatile, and entering his prime. Unfortunately, that’s also why Kansas City probably doesn’t want to move him.

the more realistic short-term option could be Salvador Perez. The Royals have catcher Carter Jensen coming, and if Kansas City were willing to eat salary, maybe Perez could be acquired relatively cheaply. Even at his age, he would add some serious punch to the lineup.

Houston Astros- The obvious name is Isaac Paredes. Houston has Cam Smith, who originally came up as a third baseman, and another young infielder in Xavier Neyens who has been hitting well and looks ready for big league opportunity, That could make Paredes even more expendable than he was in February. 

The second name is Jeremy Peña. Houston also has Brice Matthews developing, and if they believe they can replace Peña internally, perhaps they’d consider moving him while his value is high.

The third name is Carlos Correa. I don’t think this is likely, but if Houston were willing to eat a substantial portion of the contract, you could at least see the logic. He’s still only 31 and could have productive years ahead of him.

Of the Houston options, I think Paredes is by far the most likely.

San Francisco Giants- This is the team that makes the most sense to me. The Giants are in last place, have an expensive roster, and have several contracts that may not age particularly well. At the same time, they have a top prospect in Bryce Eldridge who needs at-bats. They also have Rafael Devers, who essentially has to play, and Casey Schmitt, who has broken out and is producing while making very little money. Between 1b, 3b and DH they have 4 guys Bryce Eldridge, Casey Shmitt, Rafi Devers and Matt Chapman. 

That creates a roster crunch. The obvious odd man out is Matt Chapman. He still plays excellent defense, is respected in the clubhouse, and can absolutely help a team. But he’s older, expensive, and perhaps no longer fits San Francisco’s long-term timeline. If the Giants are motivated to create payroll flexibility, Boston could potentially acquire him while San Francisco absorbs a significant portion of the remaining contract.

The other name we’ve discussed endlessly is Willy Adames. He’s only 30 years old, still has real power, and has multiple years remaining on a large contract. If the Giants decide they need financial flexibility and want to reshape the roster, Adames becomes a logical trade candidate.

Of all the names mentioned, the 5 that make the most sense to me in order of probability are:

1- Isaac Paredes

2- Matt Chapman

3- Willy Adames

4- Bo Bichette

5- Marcus Semien 

If Buster Olney is hearing about a veteran right-handed bat with a significant contract becoming available, my money is on one of these guys. 

Correa is out for the year.  Semien hasn’t had an OPS north of .700 since 2023.  Adames is the Sylvester Stallone of shortstops - big name, big paycheck, no range.

Chapman certainly makes sense.  Another nane that might sneak into the discussion is Xander Bogaerts.  Plenty of reasons to avoid him, starting with a contract that lasts 7 more years at $25.4 mill per.  But he is definitely available for Yoshida, and San Diego might take another questionable deal as well.  And he is a PR boom since he’s a fan favorite.

From this list, none dazzle me.  Maybe Chapman…

 

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, iortiz said:

The point is that they are not projecting well their prospects which again is worrisome. 

KC was ranked #4 by BA, #7 by MLB, and #3 by BP.  He was voted minor league player of the year.  The list of minor league players of the year include:

• Frank Thomas
• Salmon
• Manny R
• Jeter
• Andruw Jones
• Mauer
• Trout
• Vlad
• Witt
• Dozens of other AS players

You're trying to make this like the RS were making up his value.  Everyone on the entire planet loved this guy.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, iortiz said:

It’s early but I think they didn’t rank and project them well. 

Professional agencies, that have been around many decades, rank the prospects.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, vegasbob said:

LAA Joe Adell .

LOL!  You must be reading my posts in MLB Rumors.  I mentioned him earlier today.  Perfect fit.  Adell for Masa, we eat a ton of money, and we give up a couple of decent lottery tickets.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

The obvious odd man out is Matt Chapman. He still plays excellent defense, is respected in the clubhouse, and can absolutely help a team. But he’s older, expensive, ...

The other name we’ve discussed endlessly is Willy Adames.

A week ago, some in here were making fun of the idea of Chapman + Adames.  Adames now has 6 HRs in his last 14 games.  And Chapman has a solid .762 OPS over the same period.

That said, Adames is the better target, though SF is far less likely to trade him now.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, UtahSox said:

1- Isaac Paredes

2- Matt Chapman

3- Willy Adames

4- Bo Bichette

5- Marcus Semien 

Paredes doesn't have a significant contract.  Semien & Chapman are difficult to to add given their age & contract, and especially because they don't really add much, if any, offense.

BB and Adames are worth discussing, but are kind of expensive.  I'd prefer Adames.

[notin]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

LOL!  You must be reading my posts in MLB Rumors.  I mentioned him earlier today.  Perfect fit.  Adell for Masa, we eat a ton of money, and we give up a couple of decent lottery tickets.

Is Adell and his .653 OPS really the cure for an ailing offense?

Gleyber Torres makes more sense IMO.  Although they’re not taking back Yoshida.  (Neither are the Angels.)

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Is Adell and his .653 OPS really the cure for an ailing offense?

Gleyber Torres makes more sense IMO.  Although they’re not taking back Yoshida.  (Neither are the Angels.)

 

.778 last year.  About a .900 against lefties over the past three years.  He's not THE answer, but even if we land Adames, we might need a 2nd bat.  And the cost should be small.

[moonslav59]

Great to see Tolle doing so well

[Old Red]

2 out of 3 ain’t bad, or is it? Which way will it go today?