A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

doesn't bother me even a little. Duran, like just about everybody else in the lineup has turned to s*** this year. weird how they all decided to suck at the same time. 

Top 9 batters on Sox by PAs 2025 and 2026:

***2025 Devers .905

2026 Abreu .860

***2025 Anthony .859

***2025 Romy .826

2026 Contreras .822

***2025 Bregman .821

***2025 Abreu .786

***2025 Duran .774

2026 Rafaela .762

***2025 Story .741

***2025 Narvaez .726

***2025 Rafaela .708

2026 Anthony .675

2026 Narvaez .608

2026 Mayer .606

2026 Story .529

2026 Durbin .509

_________________

Top 4 bench

***2025 Refsnyder .838

2026 Monasterio .733

2026 Yoshida .720

2026 Wong .674

***2025 KC .664

***2025 Toro .659

***2025 DHam .590

2026 IKF .456

[notin]

53 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

doesn't bother me even a little. Duran, like just about everybody else in the lineup has turned to s*** this year. weird how they all decided to suck at the same time. 

That’s the thing.  It’s actually weird.

Ive seen some theorize they all just gave up because the Sox didn’t spend enough money, but that’s just nonsense. It’s really projecting from ppl that wanted to see them spend more.  At some point, that logic implies some player or players gave up because they are upset that they were not replaced as starters.  Really? Think anyone starting for any team in MLB ever has ever thought “if ownership really wanted to win, they shouldn’t rely on me to help at all.  They need to replace me AND FAST.”

Or they throw teammates under the bus.  “This team doesn’t want to win.  Otherwise why would they let Andy start.  He’s f***ing horrible.  I quit.”

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s the thing.  It’s actually weird.

Ive seen some theorize they all just gave up because the Sox didn’t spend enough money, but that’s just nonsense. It’s really projecting from ppl that wanted to see them spend more.  At some point, that logic implies some player or players gave up because they are upset that they were not replaced as starters.  Really? Think anyone starting for any team in MLB ever has ever thought “if ownership really wanted to win, they shouldn’t rely on me to help at all.  They need to replace me AND FAST.”

Some might be wondering, now, "When will they replace Duran, Story and Durbin?"

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Some might be wondering, now, "When will they replace Duran, Story and Durbin?"

I’ve been wondering that.  
 

As hard as I’ve been on Durbin, I did notice he started equally poorly last year, with a .501 OPS as late as May 20th.  If he can repeat his June-Oct performance he would be acceptable.

Story? I’m ok with his benching.  Duran?  Biggest disappointment on this team to the point I’d be ok watching the Sox role the dice with Braiden Ward.  Especially since I’ve noticed how Tampa has taken advantage of teams no longer knowing how to defend bunts…

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s the thing.  It’s actually weird.

Ive seen some theorize they all just gave up because the Sox didn’t spend enough money, but that’s just nonsense. It’s really projecting from ppl that wanted to see them spend more.  At some point, that logic implies some player or players gave up because they are upset that they were not replaced as starters.  Really? Think anyone starting for any team in MLB ever has ever thought “if ownership really wanted to win, they shouldn’t rely on me to help at all.  They need to replace me AND FAST.”

It has to be because the offense lost the tutelage of Bregman. And I know I may be repeating myself to infinity, but thankfully that can be quantified: 3.141592653589793,

At least, that's what a NASA engineer states online he uses "for JPL's highest accuracy calculations, which are for interplanetary navigation..."

... or for pieholes as inept as me trying to navigate the Red Sox' otherworldly batting stats on fangraphs (I could just round it off to 3.14 -- hey, that's their runs scored per week!)

 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ve been wondering that.  
 

As hard as I’ve been on Durbin, I did notice he started equally poorly last year, with a .501 OPS as late as May 20th.  If he can repeat his June-Oct performance he would be acceptable.

Story? I’m ok with his benching.  Duran?  Biggest disappointment on this team to the point I’d be ok watching the Sox role the dice with Braiden Ward.  Especially since I’ve noticed how Tampa has taken advantage of teams no longer knowing how to defend bunts…

 

They will likely wait for Anthony to make the call on Duran.

Monasterio over Story?

Call up Sogard? He's been hot.

Trade for Paredes long before the deadline? (Mayer to SS and Monasterio/Durbin/Story to 2B?)

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, notin said:

Does this count?

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/roman-anthony-701350?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

It's good, but it's not close.  Anthony's good grades are Yordan's bad grades, and I don't mean that as a slight.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

That’s the thing.  It’s actually weird.

Ive seen some theorize they all just gave up because the Sox didn’t spend enough money, but that’s just nonsense. It’s really projecting from ppl that wanted to see them spend more.  At some point, that logic implies some player or players gave up because they are upset that they were not replaced as starters.  Really? Think anyone starting for any team in MLB ever has ever thought “if ownership really wanted to win, they shouldn’t rely on me to help at all.  They need to replace me AND FAST.”

Or they throw teammates under the bus.  “This team doesn’t want to win.  Otherwise why would they let Andy start.  He’s f***ing horrible.  I quit.”

That's not so much weird as hanging-upsidedown batschitt crazy.

I've seen players become lackadaisical,  I've never seen a player, at any level, ever give up an at-bat, even when they were warming up in batting practice.  Even pitchers want to take their hacks.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

(I could just round it off to 3.14 -- hey, that's their runs scored per week!)

Sadly, you wouldn't even be remotely close.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They take direction from Breslow. If Breslow said "teach them how to go oppo" that's what they'd start teaching. It's (a) too many cooks in the kitchen and (b) player regression.

so,Breslow's team's problem......is Breslow?

[urban cowboy]

On 5/14/2026 at 7:58 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think MLB changed the rules, so if we traded for Yordan, the tax hit would be $26M, since he'll be owed $52M/2 after 2026. That's still a good deal, but unless JH spends more in 2027 and beyond, trading for Yordan would mean not adding another key piece or two.

I'm not against trading for Yordan, but the return will be high and the budget hit is not $19M as his whole contract AAV is.

Getting Yordan and Paredes would be very nice. Paredes has a club option for 2027 at $13.3M.

This would not be a trade for the long term. It would strengthen a 1-2 year window and possibly weaken the long term one. If we could extend one or both, that dynamic changes, as does the budget numbers.

HOU will not want Yoshida or Story, but we could "help" the budget hit by including (forcing upon HOU) KC and or Bello, and of course other high value players/prospects would be needed.

BTV accepets:

Arias, Witherspoon, Phillips & Bennett

for

Alvarez, Paredes & Janek (nice catching prospect)

I seriously doubt HOU accepts this. Sub Tolle or Early for Phillips and maybe still a no.

Alvarez has been hurt a lot. Might be someone who won't last or hits an early decline. As bad as this year has been so far, I wouldn't panic and give away young pitching. Maybe take our lumps for now and hope that things start to click in the second half -- which isn't that crazy.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, urban cowboy said:

Alvarez has been hurt a lot. Might be someone who won't last or hits an early decline. As bad as this year has been so far, I wouldn't panic and give away young pitching. Maybe take our lumps for now and hope that things start to click in the second half -- which isn't that crazy.  

Just don't trade pitchers to the Brewers. Or the Braves. Or the Yankees. Or the Cardinals. 

Basically, any team that will face the Red Sox.

[notin]

19 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It has to be because the offense lost the tutelage of Bregman. And I know I may be repeating myself to infinity, but thankfully that can be quantified: 3.141592653589793,

At least, that's what a NASA engineer states online he uses "for JPL's highest accuracy calculations, which are for interplanetary navigation..."

... or for pieholes as inept as me trying to navigate the Red Sox' otherworldly batting stats on fangraphs (I could just round it off to 3.14 -- hey, that's their runs scored per week!)

 

I’d be more prone to believe the Bregman thing if a few players had career years ladt year and reverted to career norms this  year, but that’s not the case.  They didn’t all suddenly forget how to hit because Bregman left…

[notin]

19 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It has to be because the offense lost the tutelage of Bregman. And I know I may be repeating myself to infinity, but thankfully that can be quantified: 3.141592653589793,

At least, that's what a NASA engineer states online he uses "for JPL's highest accuracy calculations, which are for interplanetary navigation..."

... or for pieholes as inept as me trying to navigate the Red Sox' otherworldly batting stats on fangraphs (I could just round it off to 3.14 -- hey, that's their runs scored per week!)

 

If a bunch of players had career years ladt year and reverted to career norms this year, this is a plausible theory.  But Jarren Duran is .250 below his previous career worst OPS.  He didn’t forget how to hit because Bregman left.  Story is also have a career worst season. Yoshida is having his career worst SLG.  That’s not all because Bregman left.  Might as well ask how these players even got to MLB in the first place without Bregman…

[Bellhorn04]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

If a bunch of players had career years ladt year and reverted to career norms this year, this is a plausible theory.  But Jarren Duran is .250 below his previous career worst OPS.  He didn’t forget how to hit because Bregman left.  Story is also have a career worst season. Yoshida is having his career worst SLG.  That’s not all because Bregman left.  Might as well ask how these players even got to MLB in the first place without Bregman…

These things are impossible to prove one way or the other, of course. When your team can't hit you start grasping for straws. It would be interesting to hear Breslow's explanation for why he decided to fire the hitting coaches.

[Old Red]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

These things are impossible to prove one way or the other, of course. When your team can't hit you start grasping for straws. It would be interesting to hear Breslow's explanation for why he decided to fire the hitting coaches.

Or most of the coaches for that matter. Except for Bailey it’s a minor league operation in more ways than one.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’d be more prone to believe the Bregman thing if a few players had career years ladt year and reverted to career norms this  year, but that’s not the case.  They didn’t all suddenly forget how to hit because Bregman left…

And many hit better in 2024 (before Bregman) than 2026, too.

Bregman and Bichette were NOT the "BIG BATS" we needed.

[moonslav59]

How long do we go on before a player is blamed and sent packing?

If it does happen, who it the one?

Story?

Duran?

Maybe start with a lesser piece like IKF?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How long do we go on before a player is blamed and sent packing?

If it does happen, who it the one?

Story?

Duran?

Maybe start with a lesser piece like IKF?

Today. Story on the IL. 

Sogard up. We've got our starting second baseman back from our last playoff team.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Today. Story on the IL. 

Sogard up. We've got our starting second baseman back from our last playoff team.

Make story rehab for the max time allowed and then decide what to do with him.

Sogard can't be worse, but with the bar set so low, it's not saying anything positive.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Today. Story on the IL. 

Sogard up. We've got our starting second baseman back from our last playoff team.

Hamilton Romy?

[moonslav59]

Coulombe had his first rehab game, last night and did okay.

Whoopieeeee!

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Make story rehab for the max time allowed and then decide what to do with him.

Sogard can't be worse, but with the bar set so low, it's not saying anything positive.

I hate hearing that, because now Sogard is going to prove you wrong.

A .540 OPS might be as bad as you think it gets, but that OPS alone can get 0.540 points worse…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Hamilton Romy?

Sogard started the first two games in the Wild Card series and hit .333 in the playoffs.

How could you mock a guy whose name is chanted three times in every game before the bottom of the 8th inning by the entire Fenway Park crowd.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sogard started the first two games in the Wild Card series and hit .333 in the playoffs.

How could you mock a guy whose name is chanted three times in every game before the bottom of the 8th inning by the entire Fenway Park crowd.

Well hope he enjoys his time.  Think he will be one of those utility infielders who morphs into a regular season All Star like Justin Turner or Max Muncy or Kike Gonzalez or Chris Taylor?  Or does that only happen to Dodgers?

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

I hate hearing that, because now Sogard is going to prove you wrong.

A .540 OPS might be as bad as you think it gets, but that OPS alone can get 0.540 points worse…

Of course Sogard can hit below .540, but Story's D can easily be improved upon.

[moonslav59]

Hey if Gasper can shine, even briefly, maybe others can, too.

[UtahSox]

On 5/13/2026 at 12:41 PM, JoeBrady said:

Bregman + Alonso = 1.6 bWAR

Contreras + Durbin = 1.9 bWAR

They’d be better in Boston 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

They’d be better in Boston 

Not by enough, and with JH's limited budget, we'd be crippled for 5 years.

[moonslav59]

Berrios broke his elbow.

Fried to IL.