A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With the addition of Durbin, fangraphs now has the Sox projected as 7th best in 2026 fWAR:

57.3 LAD

48.1 TOR

47.5 NYY

47.4 NYM

47.2 ATL

46.8 SEA

46.2 BOS

46.1 PHI

45.4 BAL

44.8 DET

By position:

1st SP (Oviedo with the 5th most IP, then Sandoval & Crawford)

2nd LF (Anthony then Duran)

5th RP

7th RF (Abreu w some Anthony)

7th CF (Ceddanne)

12th 1B (Willson)

15th DH (Mostly Duran, then Masa, Anthony, Willson & Casas)

17th 2B (Mostly Durbin & Romy)

24th 3B (Mostly mayer but Durbin not far away)

25th SS (but don't bring up asking Cora to make a change)

26th Catcher (Narvaez at 1.9 Tied for 17th most)

If Narvaez is similar to last season and Wong can just be 0.0 fWAR, they should be closer to 15th instead of 26th. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Narvaez is similar to last season and Wong can just be 0.0 fWAR, they should be closer to 15th instead of 26th. 

Agreed, but many teams probably have the same "if" scenario.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good point, and we have the infield depth covered three times over.

We have a lot of noise, but imo, it is less than it seems.  Monastery will replace Romy and the other two are AAA depth.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

No more trading of starting pitching. Injuries will come and we need the depth. 

I think we need to switch out Yoshi for a RH version of Yoshi, but even at that, I'd be fine with shutting down the FO for a few weeks.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt DD trades $20M/1 for $18M/2 (Masa,) but would you?

If DD insiested on $9M or $18M paid in 2027, would that change your mind?

Yes and yes, but probably no.

I figure Yoshi is roughly $26M under-water.  If we swapped him for Casty, you could cut Casty the next day and be ahead.  But I wouldn't pay $9M.  And I kind of would prefer to not have Casty on the team.

Try the same thing with O'Neill instead.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We have a lot of noise, but imo, it is less than it seems.  Monastery will replace Romy and the other two are AAA depth.

I'm not so sure Romy starts the season on the IL, but if he does, it's hard to know how our management orders the depth at each infield slot.

We don't even know who the #1 3Bman and 2Bman are (Durbin or Mayer?)

Kiner-Falefa might be the first infielder off the bench at SS, 3B and 2B.

It's hard to know where they place returnees Sogard and Eaton among ...

Monasterio- 3B, 2B, SS, 1B

Seigler: 3B, 1B, C

Rodgers (not on 40) GG winner at 2B

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Rodgers (not on 40) GG winner at 2B

The only good thing about Rodgers is that he's on a MiLB deal and he can be left in WOO for the whole year, unless there's an opt out that we don't know about. 

[mvp 78]

Red Sox now lead the AL with 14 IFers on the 40 man roster (2nd place is 9). 

[Hitch]

47 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think we need to switch out Yoshi for a RH version of Yoshi, but even at that, I'd be fine with shutting down the FO for a few weeks.

If we can find a way to lose Yoshi, great, but I'd not be moving any more pitching right now.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The only good thing about Rodgers is that he's on a MiLB deal and he can be left in WOO for the whole year, unless there's an opt out that we don't know about. 

It is a very nice thing about his signing with us, but the guy has shown he can hit better than many of the depth guys on the 40.

While 2021 seems like a long time ago, Rodgers is only 29. 2021 was no tiny sample size either: 415 PAs and a .798 OPS. His .733 OPS in '22 was better than most seasons by several indfielders on our 40.

Best seasons and 2 straight seasons:

.917 ('19) .915 ('18-'19) Story (with BOS .741 in '25 and .740 '24-'25 in 760 PAs)

.826 ('25) .786 ('24-'25 in 557 PAs) Romy

.798 ('21) .761 ('21-'22 in 996 PAs) Rodgers

.755 ('25) .655 ('24-'25) Monasterio

.721 ('25) Durbin's rookie year

.699 ('20) .677 ('20-'21) Kiner-Falefa

.664 ('25) Campbell's rookie season

.661 ('25) .656 ('24-'25) Sogard

Career

.819 Story (4460) .717 w BOS (1324)

.729 Romy (796)

.721 Durbin (506)

.714 Rodgers (1957) GG winner

.672 Monasterio (592)

.664 KC (263)

.660 I K-F (3370) GG winner

.655 Sogard (190)

.610 Eaton (268)

.501 Seigler (73)

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is a very nice thing about his signing with us, but the guy has shown he can hit better than many of the depth guys on the 40.

While 2021 seems like a long time ago, Rodgers is only 29. 2021 was no tiny sample size either: 415 PAs and a .798 OPS. His .733 OPS in '22 was better than most seasons by several indfielders on our 40.

Rodgers COL

'22 Home 10 HR, 313 AVG, 899 OPS

'22 Away 3 HR, 212 AVG, 588 OPS

Yuck

'23 Home 855 OPS

'23 Away 531 OPS

'24 Home 888 OPS

'24 Away 571 OPS

Moves to HOU

'25 Home 511 OPS

'25 Away 574 OPS

If it wasn't for Coors, this guy would be a NOBODY. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rodgers COL

'22 Home 10 HR, 313 AVG, 899 OPS

'22 Away 3 HR, 212 AVG, 588 OPS

Yuck

'23 Home 855 OPS

'23 Away 531 OPS

'24 Home 888 OPS

'24 Away 571 OPS

Moves to HOU

'25 Home 511 OPS

'25 Away 574 OPS

If it wasn't for Coors, this guy would be a NOBODY. 

Wow. Two sample sizes in the 60's and he's a "nobody."

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow. Two sample sizes in the 60's and he's a "nobody."

What it shows is that he's not a good hitter away from Coors. That's why he signed a MiLB deal.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What it shows is that he's not a good hitter away from Coors. That's why he signed a MiLB deal.

His numbers w COL did show that. I heard the same about Story.

The numbers from HOU are barely large enough to even mention. \

Maybe we'll call him up, only when we play at COL.

[JoeBrady]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow. Two sample sizes in the 60's and he's a "nobody."

Probably.  But he was also the overall #1/3, and consistently ranked in he top-20.  Feels like a decent minor league gamble to me.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Probably.  But he was also the overall #1/3, and consistently ranked in he top-20.  Feels like a decent minor league gamble to me.

He may fall way short of his career numbers that were aided by his games in COL, but some of these other infielders we have have not had much more offensive success than DHam. My point was to say he may end up being better than some of the guys on the 40, now.

The bar is set pretty low (on offense) and Rodgers has a GG on defense, so he doesn't even have to be equal on offense to maybe pass a couple/three guys up on the depth charts.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He may fall way short of his career numbers that were aided by his games in COL, but some of these other infielders we have have not had much more offensive success than DHam. My point was to say he may end up being better than some of the guys on the 40, now.

The bar is set pretty low (on offense) and Rodgers has a GG on defense, so he doesn't even have to be equal on offense to maybe pass a couple/three guys up on the depth charts.

He's a terrible baseball player who is lower than the other 40 man roster guys on the depth chart simply because he doesn't have options or a 40 man roster spot. He's stuck in AAA until they need someone else to play in WOO. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a terrible baseball player who is lower than the other 40 man roster guys on the depth chart simply because he doesn't have options or a 40 man roster spot. He's stuck in AAA until they need someone else to play in WOO. 

I get that. My point was that he may be better than some on the 40. When you have guys like Eaton, Sogard, Seigler and maybe even Monasterio, the bar is not set very high.

Hell, less than a week ago, we thought DHam might be starting vs RHPs at 2B.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get that. My point was that he may be better than some on the 40. When you have guys like Eaton, Sogard, Seigler and maybe even Monasterio, the bar is not set very high.

Hell, less than a week ago, we thought DHam might be starting vs RHPs at 2B.

He is not better than Eaton or Monasterio. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He is not better than Eaton or Monasterio. 

Okay, but maybe the other two?

I've never been all that high on Eaton, and I'm not sure we need him for OF depth.

BTW, Eaton's Home and Away splits in larger sample sizes than Rodgers with HOU:

.458 Home

.638 Away

Maybe he's really a great batter and KC held him back! LOL

[moonslav59]

I'll be fair and present the everyday players, later, but here are the top projected fWARs for ALE pitchers only in 2026:

5.5 Crochet

3.9 Cease

3.8 Gray

3.7 Fried

3.2 Suarez (Sox with 3 in top 5)

3.1 Bradish

2.9 Gausman & McClanahan

2.8 Rasmussen (TBR w 2 in top 9)

2.4 Bieber (TOR w 3 in top 10)

2.3 Ponce (TOR w 4 in top 11)

2.2 Rodon (NYY 2 in top 12-4) & T Rogers (BAL w 2 in top 12-14) Yesavage (TOR 5 in top 12-14)

2.1 Pepiot (TBR 3 in top 15)

2.0 Cole (NYY 3 in top 16)

1.9 Baz (BAL 3 in top 17)

1.9 Bello (4 in top 18)

[moonslav59]

Everyday Players in ALE

6.7 Judge NYY

5.7 Henderson BAL

4.8 Guerrero TOR

4.2 Kirk TOR

4.0 Caminero TBR

(Neto was ranked 12th in the AL at 3.7)

3.5 Rutschman BAL

3.1 Chisholm & Wells NYY

2.8 Y Diaz TBR & Bellinger NYY

2.7 Alonso BAL

2.6 Rafaela (12th best in ALE)

2.5 Okamoto TOR

2.2 Grisham & Rice NYY Gimenez TOR

2.1 T Ward BAL & Volpe NYY

2.0 Duran (19th) Narvaez (19th) Abreu (19th) 4 in top 21, but bunched near the bottom of the top 21.

[moonslav59]

Some selected fangraphs OPS projections:

.858 KMarte

.851 Schwarber

.831 Alonso

.810 Devers

.804 Anthony

.801 Paredes

.789 Abreu & Murakami

,787 Bichette 

.786 Contreras

.784 ESuarez & Bregman

.783 Casas

.775 Neto & Ozuna

.769 Okamoto

.768 Yoshida

.765 Polanco

.763 Duran

.755 Donovan, ,754 Bohm & B Lowe

.746 Durbin

.731 Hoerner

.726 Refsnyder

.725 Rafaela & Mayer

[moonslav59]

The more I think about missing out on Neto, the more I wonder how close we got, and of course what the demand was.

I like Durbin and his upside, but Neto looked like the infielder and power bat we needed- all in one. High K rate, but can steal bases and showed some flash on D, despite not so good metrics.

Let's see how this pans out. Word is the Angels were asking for a ton.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, but maybe the other two?

I've never been all that high on Eaton, and I'm not sure we need him for OF depth.

BTW, Eaton's Home and Away splits in larger sample sizes than Rodgers with HOU:

.458 Home

.638 Away

Maybe he's really a great batter and KC held him back! LOL

Where'd you get those splits for Eaton? 

Career (FanGraphs)

Home 591

Away 627

Eaton hit really well at Fenway last season (874).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'll be fair and present the everyday players, later, but here are the top projected fWARs for ALE pitchers only in 2026:

5.5 Crochet

3.9 Cease

3.8 Gray

3.7 Fried

3.2 Suarez (Sox with 3 in top 5)

For anyone who thinks Breslow has actually improved the club this offseason, this is the only possible reason. The Red Sox aren't better in the batting order or even on defense yet because Bregman was an All-Star third baseman (and no matter what stats say, was clutch on D and a total difference-maker in stabilizing the infield).

Here's the starting rotation that opened the first five games in 2025: Crochet-Houck-Buehler-Fitts-Newcombe. We know now that Giolito and Bello became good #2 and #3 starters and underrated keys to making the playoffs.

Is it automatic that Gray and Suarez will be an improvement over '25 Gio and Bello? I'd actually be happy if they are just as good, and we get more quality consistency from Bello-Oviedo-Crawford in the #4, #5 and #6 slots. THAT may be where Boston is most improved. Plus, Early or Tolle or both could emerge...

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Where'd you get those splits for Eaton? 

Career (FanGraphs)

Home 591

Away 627

Eaton hit really well at Fenway last season (874).

His splits with KCR only- kinda like you used for the Rodgers HOU tiny sample sizes, but in reverse.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For anyone who thinks Breslow has actually improved the club this offseason, this is the only possible reason. The Red Sox aren't better in the batting order or even on defense yet because Bregman was an All-Star third baseman (and no matter what stats say, was clutch on D and a total difference-maker in stabilizing the infield).

Here's the starting rotation that opened the first five games in 2025: Crochet-Houck-Buehler-Fitts-Newcombe. We know now that Giolito and Bello became good #2 and #3 starters and underrated keys to making the playoffs.

Is it automatic that Gray and Suarez will be an improvement over '25 Gio and Bello? I'd actually be happy if they are just as good, and we get more quality consistency from Bello-Oviedo-Crawford in the #4, #5 and #6 slots. THAT may be where Boston is most improved. Plus, Early or Tolle or both could emerge...

Suarez & Gray dont have to improve on Gio and Bello- they will improve on Gio and Buehler. Bello is still here and moved down a notch.

The Contreras bat should be almost equal to what Breggie gives this year.

It's the Devers and Ref numbers that went unfilled.

We are a better team, IMO- it's just a matter of degree.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Suarez & Gray dont have to improve on Gio and Bello- they will improve on Gio and Buehler. Bello is still here and moved down a notch.

The Contreras bat should be almost equal to what Breggie gives this year.

It's the Devers and Ref numbers that went unfilled.

We are a better team, IMO- it's just a matter of degree.

Luke Warm to Luke Appling.