A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The trade suggests that Casas is gone.  My guess is that he'll need rehab in AAA.  Once healthy, he should have trade value, and probably has trade value even with the injury.

Casas is really awful on defense and is injury prone. If we didn't have Masa at DH, it would look like an easy choice sliding him to DH.

That still might be his landing spot... with us or with another team.

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

The New York radio guys urging stern to revisit Duran for Tong and Vientos! 
 

I do not think Contreras & Vientos make up for the losses of Bregman, Devers, Ref and DLowe.

I realize we are hoping to get more from Anthony and Mayer, but we have to figure injuries or less from others.

Duran for Paredes and ____, maybe. Maybe Rafaela for Paredes.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Casas is really awful on defense and is injury prone. If we didn't have Masa at DH, it would look like an easy choice sliding him to DH.

That still might be his landing spot... with us or with another team.

They couldn’t trade CASAS last year, and is LESS desirable now in a trade.Mybe throw in Hicks, and Masa to get it done.🤔

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

They couldn’t trade CASAS last year, and is LESS desirable now in a trade.Mybe throw in Hicks, and Masa to get it done.🤔

I'm not expecting anything of value for these guys, but marginal and underwater players are often traded.

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not expecting anything of value for these guys, but marginal and underwater players are often traded.

Yes, and SF unloaded Hicks on the RED Sox. I wouldn’t give up on Casas though. He needs to get healthy, and spend some time down in Woo to get straightened out.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

They couldn’t trade CASAS last year, and is LESS desirable now in a trade.Mybe throw in Hicks, and Masa to get it done.🤔

Well, it’s not that they couldn’t trade Casas ladt year; it’s that they couldn’t trade him when they tried to attach Yoshida and his contract.  That’s not the same thing.

Sure he isn’t going to get you a “#2 starter” but Casas’ combination of demonstrated skills and very small financial commitment will appeal to some teams.  If Michael Chavis and Nick Yorke can be dealt for MLB pitchers,  certainly the Sox can get something for Casas.

Whether or not it’s something useful remains to be seen…

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Do you think any teams are calling and asking for Sandlin? 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Yes, and SF unloaded Hicks on the RED Sox. I wouldn’t give up on Casas though. He needs to get healthy, and spend some time down in Woo to get straightened out.

I have been saying Casas should DH.

I just asked the question, will he be traded.

I agree, his upside value is too high to trade, now, while his stock is so low.

We don't have a 40 man roster squeezes and no other real 1B depth on the 40, so keeping him makes the most sense, to me.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you think any teams are calling and asking for Sandlin? 

Yes- not so much for Uberstine or Drohan, who to me are high on my possible DFA list.

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes- not so much for Uberstine or Drohan, who to me are high on my possible DFA list.

And yet we keep Jovani around???? 
Drohan has to be a lefty reliever this year! 
understine has to beat out Kelly for a spot in the bullpen, while not being passed by anybody else 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

And yet we keep Jovani around???? 
Drohan has to be a lefty reliever this year! 
understine has to beat out Kelly for a spot in the bullpen, while not being passed by anybody else 

I have Moran above Sandlin, Uberstine and Drohan, but I'm assuming he can regain what he showed a couple/three years ago.

11.1 K/9 in 95 IP w MIN (Yikes on the 5.2 BB/9!)

In 2022, he had a .490 OPS Against in over 40 IP. I doubt the 3 guys I listed ever come close to that in any 40 IP stretch of their careers.

In AAA: 13.7 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 (0.7 HR/9)

AA: 14.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 (0.8 HR/9)

Here is my ordered to be DFA'd list:

1. Hicks (or traded w cash)

2. Yoshida (traded w cash)

3. Uberstine

T4. Eaton (if we add a 3Bman)

T4. Sogard (if we add a middle infielder)

T4. Drohan

7. Watson returned via Rule 5

By ST'ing, I might have Moran ahead of Kelly.

[Old Red]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have been saying Casas should DH.

I just asked the question, will he be traded.

I agree, his upside value is too high to trade, now, while his stock is so low.

We don't have a 40 man roster squeezes and no other real 1B depth on the 40, so keeping him makes the most sense, to me.

First of all Casas has to get healthy, and then he probably needs to go down to WOO for  a little while, and see what happens, and then go from there. I’m counting on Masa still being on the team, so nothing new there.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

First of all Casas has to get healthy, and then he probably needs to go down to WOO for  a little while, and see what happens, and then go from there. I’m counting on Masa still being on the team, so nothing new there.

That certainly seems like the overwhelming possibility on both the Casas and Masa fronts (and Hicks being on the 26 for opening day, too.)

We don't have much depth at 1B. If we trade an OF'er the DH depth is one less deep. That is what I see happening.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have traded away these prospects, this winter:

4. Perales (for #6 Bennett)

6. Jh Garcia (Oviedo and #29 Samaniego & #31 Guzman)

8. Clarke (with Fitts for S Gray)

8. Fajardo (w Dobbins & Aita for Contreras)

20. Travieso (w Jg Garcia for Oviedo plus)

21. Paez (Rule 5 loss- not a trade)

36. Aita (w others for Contreras)

All together, we traded these 13 players & prospects:

Dobbins, Fitts, Bernardino, Grissom, Murphy, Guerrero, Jh Garcia, Perales, Clarke, Fajardo, Travieso, Aita & Reimer

For these 12 players and prospects:

Sonny Gray, Wilson Contreras, Johan Oviedo, Ryan Watson, Tristan Gray, Jake Bennett, Tyler Samaniego, Adonys Guzman, Ronny Hernandez, Braiden Ward,  Luke Heyman & Isaiah Jackson

No free agents signings, so far- the only AL team in that boat.

 

[Larry Cook]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have traded away these prospects, this winter:

4. Perales (for #6 Bennett)

6. Jh Garcia (Oviedo and #29 Samaniego & #31 Guzman)

8. Clarke (with Fitts for S Gray)

8. Fajardo (w Dobbins & Aita for Contreras)

20. Travieso (w Jg Garcia for Oviedo plus)

21. Paez (Rule 5 loss- not a trade)

36. Aita (w others for Contreras)

All together, we traded these 13 players & prospects:

Dobbins, Fitts, Bernardino, Grissom, Murphy, Guerrero, Jh Garcia, Perales, Clarke, Fajardo, Travieso, Aita & Reimer

For these 12 players and prospects:

Sonny Gray, Wilson Contreras, Johan Oviedo, Ryan Watson, Tristan Gray, Jake Bennett, Tyler Samaniego, Adonys Guzman, Ronny Hernandez, Braiden Ward,  Luke Heyman & Isaiah Jackson

No free agents signings, so far- the only AL team in that boat.

 

In summary, thus far this offseason, we have traded 10 arms and have acquired 5 arms?? 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

In summary, thus far this offseason, we have traded 10 arms and have acquired 5 arms?? 

Yes, and when you looked at our projected SP'ers from the A to MLB levels, we had a surplus of more than 5, so this makes sense, to me

I question the Bernardino trade, but something happened, last season that turned Brez & Cora off. I liked Dobbins, Clarke and some others, and I still though Perales has giant upside, but Fajardo is the guy I hated seeing traded.

Sonny Gray certainly rates to be a better 2026 pitcher than any ones we traded. Oviedo might be, too. Watson, Samaniego and Bennett all have various levels of promise- not as much as Fajardo, Clarke & Dobbins and maybe Perales, but we should still be a big plus on SP'er depth at the ML level down to A+.

[vjcsmoke]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Contreras turns 34 in May, but has just 2 years left.

Does this make Casas trade bait or in the running for the DH slot?

Do we still feel like we are logjammed at SP'ers from A+ to MLB?

I gotta think 2B/3B is still a major need area. I'm not sure Brez is still looking for a #2 SP'er. Maybe we add a RP'er and 3B/2Bman (KMarte? Bregman? Bichette? Paredes? Donovan? Suarez? Vientos?)

I believe Casas trade value is next to zero right now. We could hope for a trade of another team's failed prospect but that's about it. His injury history is terrifying and his only good season was nearly 3 years ago now.

His trade value isn't negative yet  He has 3 years of team control left. However he enters arbitration starting in 2026. So I think his days as a Red Sox are numbered unless he shows vast improvement and soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start out in AAA to get his groove back against easier competition and then he could get eased back into the majors if he does well down there.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I believe Casas trade value is next to zero right now. We could hope for a trade of another team's failed prospect but that's about it. His injury history is terrifying and his only good season was nearly 3 years ago now.

His trade value isn't negative yet  He has 3 years of team control left. However he enters arbitration starting in 2026. So I think his days as a Red Sox are numbered unless he shows vast improvement and soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start out in AAA to get his groove back against easier competition and then he could get eased back into the majors if he does well down there.

He hit .800 in 2024- just one year ago, but he did miss a lot of time.

.856 in 2023 was nice. That will be 3 years ago after 2026 is over.

I do agree, his trade value is too low to move him. We need 1B depth and a power bat, so he may fill one or both needs in '26.

[moonslav59]

Although another move or two are likely, here is what we have, right now:

1. L Duran DH

2. L Anthony LF

3 R Contreras 1B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. R Romy 2B (L DHam)

7. L Mayer 3B (R Romy)

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Campbell, Yoshida/Casas, DHam

SP: Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Sandoval/Crawford/Harrison (Tolle/Early)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Watson, Hicks, Kelly, SP or Moran

This is not a better team than 2025.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This is not a better team than 2025.

Not yet.

It's not even as good yet.

We basically have the month of January to complete the roster. All the glass is half fool guys will tell you that.

The thing is, we know whatever team leaves Florida in March is what you see is what you get. 

Once the actual season begins, the worst talksox talk is always "it's still early"... in April... and May... and June... and July before the trade deadline... because we all know, nothing really ever changes at the trade deadline. In Boston, Massachusetts, AL East, American League, Major League Baseball.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not yet.

It's not even as good yet.

We basically have the month of January to complete the roster. All the glass is half fool guys will tell you that.

The thing is, we know whatever team leaves Florida in March is what you see is what you get. 

Once the actual season begins, the worst talksox talk is always "it's still early"... in April... and May... and June... and July before the trade deadline... because we all know, nothing really ever changes at the trade deadline. In Boston, Massachusetts, AL East, American League, Major League Baseball.

I think two things are near certainties before opening day:

1. We trade an OF'er.

2. We add a 2Bman or 3Bman.

Maybe...

To PIT: Rafaela (38) Mullins (3) & Hicks (-18) owed $24M/2

To HOU: Hunter Barco (16)

To BOS: Paredes (11) Bennett Sousa (5 and a LHP) & M Keller (9)  owed $56M/3

[moonslav59]

SOXPROSPECTS.com has Crawford, Sandoval and Casas beginning the 2026 season on the IL. (Houck will be moved to the 60 Day IL once the season starts.)

They used to have Rafaela at 2B, but he's back in CF again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

SOXPROSPECTS.com has Crawford, Sandoval and Casas beginning the 2026 season on the IL. (Houck will be moved to the 60 Day IL once the season starts.)

They used to have Rafaela at 2B, but he's back in CF again.

I can't even talk about moving the best centerfielder in the league to the infield.

It's not like we're desperate to keep his streaky Jackie Bradley bat in the lineup.

Ceddanne isn't some reverse Robin Yount Hall of Fame hitter.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't even talk about moving the best centerfielder in the league to the infield.

It's not like we're desperate to keep his streaky Jackie Bradley bat in the lineup.

Ceddanne isn't some reverse Robin Yount Hall of Fame hitter.

While I agree, our 2B and 3B options are:

2B: Mayer, Romy, DHam, Sogard (Campbell)

3B: Mayer, Eaton, Romy, Sogard

Mayer can only play one slot.

I am 100% against playing Rafaela in the IF. Same as not wanting Duran at DH.

[moonslav59]

How many posters think by signing Bregman or Bichette, we'd look better on paper than 2025?

Would signing Suarez make us better?

How about Rafaela, Crawford, Mullins and Holobetz for KMarte? Better, the same or worse?

No way do we do two of these deals.

[Larry Cook]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How many posters think by signing Bregman or Bichette, we'd look better on paper than 2025?

Would signing Suarez make us better?

How about Rafaela, Crawford, Mullins and Holobetz for KMarte? Better, the same or worse?

No way do we do two of these deals.

Hard to imagine us signing either bichete or Bregman as bres-slow will not be crazy with the years 

[moonslav59]

With so many pitchers and pitching prospects traded away, and a few added, this could be how we start 2026, in terms of rotations by level:

MLB: Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Sandoval (Maybe Crawford/Harrison in pen)

AAA: Crawford, Harrison, Tolle, Early, Uberstine/Drohan (Sandlin/Mullins in pen)

AA: Bennett, Holobetz, Rivera, Wehunt, Rogers/Dean

A+: Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Tygart/Neely

A-: J Bello, Patton, Morgan, Brown, Finley/ Y Ruiz

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Hard to imagine us signing either bichete or Bregman as bres-slow will not be crazy with the years 

Bichette is the right age, but I would not make him the exception.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

The New York radio guys urging stern to revisit Duran for Tong and Vientos! 

The addition of Contreras makes the addition of Vientos less favorable, but that would still be a good trade for us.  Just using Duran 2025, he is worth 10.7.  Vientos projects as 1.9 fWAR * 4 is 7.6.  Tong is maybe 2.5*6 is 15.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The addition of Contreras makes the addition of Vientos less favorable, but that would still be a good trade for us.  Just using Duran 2025, he is worth 10.7.  Vientos projects as 1.9 fWAR * 4 is 7.6.  Tong is maybe 2.5*6 is 15.

I realize the future production by Duran is kind of hard to project, but Vientos and Tong are very suspect, going forward.

I'm kinda looking for something more like a sure bet.

I don't project Vientos to outhit Duran, so we'd take another step back on offense, after already losing Devers, Bregman, Refsnyder and D Lowe.

The Contreras gain at 1B is significant, but he and Anthony can't make up for all that loss and then add Duran to the loss list.

I'd feel better about trading Duran, if we got a solid #2 SP'er or someone like KMart or even Donovan plus something else from STL or a third team involved.

Duran to PHI

Painter & Hicks to STL

Donovan to BOS