A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He would not pass through waivers.

Maybe HOU has no want for DHam and might take Sogard, instead or nobody else. It's just conjecture.

BTW, 2024-2025

3.6 bWAR

1.8 fWAR (31st among 2Bmen with 500+ PAs)

Not bad for a sub.

Hamilton is a great sub.  His split issues is all that keeps him from being a starter.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

B Lowe & Mangum to PIT

Mike Borrows to HOU

Jacob Melton & A Brito to TBR

IMHO, Pitt should've kept Burrows as their #5, and traded a more valuable SP for a more valuable hitter.  Lowe is a one-year rental with injuries and split concerns.

[JoeBrady]

42 minutes ago, notin said:

That depends.  Do teams not want the player or not want the contract?

This is standard fare.  Almost every player has value at a given price.  Yoshida is surely better than the TX DHs (& 5 other teams) last year.  5 teams had 2Bs that were worse than Hamilton.  And plenty of teams will have worse RPs than Hicks.

[vjcsmoke]

Would you be interested in the Red Sox signing any of the Japanese free agents?

I think a low cost option for 1st base could be Okamoto at around 3 years/45 million.

He's an experienced player who could man 1st base at a reasonable price.

Or would you want to go for a top 3 pitcher like Imai, although projections have his contract topping 90 million. I don't think the Red Sox will spend that kind of money even if Imai turns into a top 3 MLB pitcher. He sounds more like a Yankees acquisition.

I think least likely would be 25 year old slugger Murakami. He's young enough to demand a high salary and has a high power ceiling but he's somewhat risky because of his high strikeout rate. How will he fare against even tougher MLB pitching?

Article on top 3 Japanese free agents coming to MLB: Breaking down the top Japanese free agents coming to MLB - ESPN

[JoeBrady]

28 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I think a low cost option for 1st base could be Okamoto at around 3 years/45 million.

Everything depends on numbers, but Okamoto looks like a good fit.  Even if Casas is healthy, and Mayer and Yoshida do okay, he is still a worthy backup at all three positions.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, vjcsmoke said:

Would you be interested in the Red Sox signing any of the Japanese free agents?

I think a low cost option for 1st base could be Okamoto at around 3 years/45 million.

He's an experienced player who could man 1st base at a reasonable price.

Or would you want to go for a top 3 pitcher like Imai, although projections have his contract topping 90 million. I don't think the Red Sox will spend that kind of money even if Imai turns into a top 3 MLB pitcher. He sounds more like a Yankees acquisition.

I think least likely would be 25 year old slugger Murakami. He's young enough to demand a high salary and has a high power ceiling but he's somewhat risky because of his high strikeout rate. How will he fare against even tougher MLB pitching?

Article on top 3 Japanese free agents coming to MLB: Breaking down the top Japanese free agents coming to MLB - ESPN

I’m interested in Murakami’s market…, he has a Monday deadline… there has been very little conversation about him. He might be the 2025 Bregman contract Beta Breslow does this year. Where he signs a 3yr 45m deal, with opt outs after each year. 

[moonslav59]

If those rankings are correct, the need for offense is legit.

[Randy Red Sox]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If the DBags are able to go up to 6 years (reported), the Sox have no shot. 

Time to work on that backup plan.

the Sox backup plan is to wait until the last minute until anyone still left standing is desperate enough to sign a 1 yr deal

[Larry Cook]

8 hours ago, notin said:

They gain it all back and then some if enough teams are interested…

Again, not sure hope is a good strategy 

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Would you be interested in the Red Sox signing any of the Japanese free agents?

I think a low cost option for 1st base could be Okamoto at around 3 years/45 million.

He's an experienced player who could man 1st base at a reasonable price.

Or would you want to go for a top 3 pitcher like Imai, although projections have his contract topping 90 million. I don't think the Red Sox will spend that kind of money even if Imai turns into a top 3 MLB pitcher. He sounds more like a Yankees acquisition.

I think least likely would be 25 year old slugger Murakami. He's young enough to demand a high salary and has a high power ceiling but he's somewhat risky because of his high strikeout rate. How will he fare against even tougher MLB pitching?

Article on top 3 Japanese free agents coming to MLB: Breaking down the top Japanese free agents coming to MLB - ESPN

Sox are only interested in guys who will sign a 1 yr deal

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Sox are only interested in guys who will sign a 1 yr deal

I doubt we only sign 1 year guys, this winter.

We signed Gio and Hendriks to super long 2 year deals (LOL) before 2024, and signed Sandoval, last winter. Now, when we need top talent, we will back off on 2 year deals?

How about a one year with team option with a buyout?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we only sign 1 year guys, this winter.

We signed Gio and Hendriks to super long 2 year deals (LOL) before 2024, and signed Sandoval, last winter. Now, when we need top talent, we will back off on 2 year deals?

How about a one year with team option with a buyout?

As long as all preseason ticket sales to Fenway Park come with an opt out. 

Don't tell me it's time to upgrade and time to add, and then you couldn't make it happen because things just didn't align. 

(not a plug, but there's align right past Fenway on David Ortiz Drive to Mighty Squirrel Brewing, where I'd rather spend time and money right now...)

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we only sign 1 year guys, this winter.

We signed Gio and Hendriks to super long 2 year deals (LOL) before 2024, and signed Sandoval, last winter. Now, when we need top talent, we will back off on 2 year deals?

How about a one year with team option with a buyout?

those are the norm since the player is usually out for the first year with injury and we hope he can give us the 2nd year.

[Randy Red Sox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we only sign 1 year guys, this winter.

We signed Gio and Hendriks to super long 2 year deals (LOL) before 2024, and signed Sandoval, last winter. Now, when we need top talent, we will back off on 2 year deals?

How about a one year with team option with a buyout?

well  Hendriks sure worked out didn't he?  but hey we did get 3/4 of a yr for 38 million out of Gio. And dont forget Fulmer too. And people wonder why I would be skeptical of assuring that Sandalvol should be guaranteed a spot in next season's rotation.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

those are the norm since the player is usually out for the first year with injury and we hope he can give us the 2nd year.

Yes, the deals like Paxton, Hendriks and Sandoval all promised some help in late season 1, but it never happened, and then year 2 was no walk in the park.

The Gio signing was different. He was healthy and had a durable history. The year 1 was an unexpected event, but nevertheless, it happened.

The other longer deals had opt-outs.

It was good to see Chapman extended and given another option year, but they guy is turning 80 soon.

We did lock up Crochet, but when the next longterm FA signing happens is in doubt. Yoshida and Story are the only two in over 6 years, and neither was really top dollar.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

well  Hendriks sure worked out didn't he?  but hey we did get 3/4 of a yr for 38 million out of Gio. And dont forget Fulmer too. And people wonder why I would be skeptical of assuring that Sandalvol should be guaranteed a spot in next season's rotation.

Deals like Fulmer are fine with me, and he was not a major add. He was signed as depth.

Sandoval does not have a guaranteed rotation slot- far from it. We only have 3- Crochet, Gray and Bello. Oviedo might be ahead of Sandoval on the current depth chart based on expectations, but all of our rotation depth after Bello have to earn their slots.

As of today, I might order them like this, but none are locked into any slot:

4/5 Oviedo & Sandoval

5/6 Crawford & Harrison

6/7/8/9/10 Dobbins, Tolle, Early

11+ Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin and maybe Bennett or Mullins with Holobetz as a longshot.

I'd much prefer a bit more quality over quantity, but we had 11+ guys last winter and ended up with Newcomb in the opening season rotation and had to trade for DMay and start 2 rookies not in that initial top 11 depth chart in March 2025.

[Larry Cook]

We signed gamoa from Korea. He can be number 11. 

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We signed gamoa from Korea. He can be number 11. 

Over Uberstine & Drohan????

[moonslav59]

Selected Players' fWAR (MLB rank) + OPS since 2021:

20.3 Devers (21st) .868 (1st on this listy)

20.0 Bogey (25th) .784 (10th on list)

19.6 Bregman (29th) .799 (7th on this list)

19.4 K Marte (31st) .857 (3rd on this list)

17.7 Bichette (37th) .795 (8th)

17.4 Realmuto (39th) ,771

16.3 S Murphy (43rd) .767

15.8 Alonso (44th) .842 (4th)

15.4 Suarez .767 & Y Diaz .822 (5th) (T45th in fWAR) 

14.4 Wi Contreras (59th) .809 (6th)

13.0 T Hernandez (65th)

14.1 Schwarber (61st) .867 (2nd)

12.8 Duran (67th) .780

12.4 Paredes (70th) .777

11.9 B Lowe (76th) .792 (9th)

11.2 H-S Kim (82nd)

10.1 Donovan (91st)

8.7 Story (105th)

Last 3 years top OPS (1000+ PAs)

.892 Tucker

.887 K Marte

,886 Schwarber

.857 Devers

.843 Y Diaz

.827 Alonso

.817 Wi Contreras

.810 Duran

.796 Bregman

.780 B Lowe

.778 Bichette

.775 Suarez

.774 Teoscar

,771 Donovan

.762 Yoshida

.753 Polanco

.746 S Murphy

.738 Viento (and Bogey)

.736 Realmuto

[moonslav59]

Remaining top FAs (ranked by MLBTR)

1. Tucker OF  (no chance)

2. Bichette 2B/SS (fat chance)

4. Murakami 3B/1B (Hmmm)

5. Bregman 3B (maybe)

6. Valdez SP (nope)

7. Imai SP (only if we trade 2-3 pitchers)

8. Bellinger OF/1B (nope)

10. Ranger Suarez SP (not likely)

15. Gallen SP (nope)

19. Okamoto 3B/1B (might be our best chance at a top 20 FA)

20. Suarez 3B (1B?) Maybe?

22. Imanaga SP, 24 Bassitt SP, 27 Giolito (longshots)

29. Realmuto C (I hope not.)

30. O'Hearn 1B/DH/OF & 34. Arraez 1B (doubt it)

33. N Martinez SP, 35 Littell SP  & 38 Verlander (maybe on 1 yr deal)

43 S Dominguez RP, 44 Fairbanks (maybe?)

N/R J Wilson RP, Hoskins 1B, Moncada 3B/2B, Refsnyder OF

 

[vjcsmoke]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we only sign 1 year guys, this winter.

We signed Gio and Hendriks to super long 2 year deals (LOL) before 2024, and signed Sandoval, last winter. Now, when we need top talent, we will back off on 2 year deals?

How about a one year with team option with a buyout?

Two year deals are reserved for guys who will be injured the first year for the Red Sox.

Giolito was on IR for all of 2024. Thus the Red Sox only paid 20% of his salary that year even though on the payroll it looked like they had a 20 million dollar per year player.

Sandoval was coming off elbow surgery and did not play for the Red Sox at all in 2025. Again on the books it looks like they have an 18 million dollar player. In reality the insurance picked up 80% of the salary because he never played for us.

This is the beauty of signing injury prone players. The accountants can put 20 million on the payroll but in reality the club pays peanuts. We might actually see Sandoval play in 2026, but I doubt he will make a big difference.

In case you are still skeptical that the Red Sox are being intentionally cheap take a look at the payroll versus revenue stats from Sportrac.

As you can see the Red Sox are 4th in overall revenue in MLB. They trail only the LA Dodgers #1, the New York Yankees #2, and The Chicago Cubs #3 in total revenues. Yet their payroll percentage versus their revenue is 23rd overall in professional baseball. And we're not even counting the fake 2 year contracts such as Giolito or Sandoval who never play a game for the Red Sox even if their money is officially on the books.

Quite frankly I'm disgusted by how the 4th biggest team in MLB is being run like they are bottom dwelling minnows. The ownership has failed the fans. They have disappointed year after year and this has become a clear pattern of behavior now and it's tiresome.

 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

Two year deals are reserved for guys who will be injured the first year for the Red Sox.

Giolito was on IR for all of 2024. Thus the Red Sox only paid 20% of his salary that year even though on the payroll it looked like they had a 20 million dollar per year player.

Gio was not signed while injured. Perhaps there is a 2 year jinx, but that one wasn't planned.

The Jansen & Chris Martin 2 year deals worked well, but that was Bloom.

The 2024 Ref signing to 2 years worked very well, but let's not discuss good 2 year deals.

It is a bummer that these are the only deals we have done, recently. I hope we break the mold.

 

 

[JoeBrady]

56 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

In reality the insurance picked up 80% of the salary because he never played for us.

I'd like to see some documentation on that.  It's kind of like you're saying that you bought a car that was gutted in a fire for $20k.  And the insurance company still insured it for $20k.  I'm pretty sure insurance companies don't get rich by issuing policies and settling claims and damaged property.  

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking we may just sign one guy: Okamoto.

He can play 3B or 1B, so he allows for a number of scenarios to develop:

If Casas is healthy and doing well:

1B Casas

2B Mayer/Romy

3B Okamoto

SS Story

If Casas is not ready:

1B: Okamoto/Romy v L

2B: Romy FT or v L/DHam 

3B: Mayer v R/Romy or Okamoto v L

SS: Story

Maybe we add a FA RP and/or #2 SP via trade. (Rafaela or Duran)

[moonslav59]

On 12/19/2025 at 4:39 PM, JoeBrady said:

Hamilton is a great sub.  His split issues is all that keeps him from being a starter.

I'm not as high on DHam and a certain poster thinks, but I know many teams would want him as their sub. He's pretty good at 2B defense. He's a great PR'er. He can probably be oaky vs RHPs, but that is not for sure.

With Romy looking like he may morph into a FT player at 2B or 1B, maybe we don't need DHam as a platoon, but he's nice insurance. Too bad his SS defense is really bad.

The metrics shows he's better than I think he is:

3.6 bWAR 2024-2025 (511 PAs) 14 HRs/55 SBs

1.7 fWAR is still not too bad. (That's top 30 in MLB among 2Bmen)

Complaining about a sub with numbers like that seems silly.

 

[UtahSox]

 

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm thinking we may just sign one guy: Okamoto.

He can play 3B or 1B, so he allows for a number of scenarios to develop:

If Casas is healthy and doing well:

1B Casas

2B Mayer/Romy

3B Okamoto

SS Story

If Casas is not ready:

1B: Okamoto/Romy v L

2B: Romy FT or v L/DHam 

3B: Mayer v R/Romy or Okamoto v L

SS: Story

Maybe we add a FA RP and/or #2 SP via trade. (Rafaela or Duran)

Section 10 said that Okamoto might be a really poor defensive 1b. That he actually projects best at DH.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Section 10 said that Okamoto might be a really poor defensive 1b. That he actually projects best at DH.

Well, Casas is about as bad on defense as any 1Bman in MLB, so he could still be an upgrade. (Casas might be our DH sooner than we think.)

If he's okay at 3B defense, I'm wondering why he sucks at 1B.

The option may be E Suarez, who is not great at 3B, but should be okay at 1B, if needed there. He might take a 2 year deal of with a mutual option 3rd year or opt out after 1 and or 2 years.

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Two year deals are reserved for guys who will be injured the first year for the Red Sox.

Giolito was on IR for all of 2024. Thus the Red Sox only paid 20% of his salary that year even though on the payroll it looked like they had a 20 million dollar per year player.

Sandoval was coming off elbow surgery and did not play for the Red Sox at all in 2025. Again on the books it looks like they have an 18 million dollar player. In reality the insurance picked up 80% of the salary because he never played for us.

This is the beauty of signing injury prone players. The accountants can put 20 million on the payroll but in reality the club pays peanuts. We might actually see Sandoval play in 2026, but I doubt he will make a big difference.

In case you are still skeptical that the Red Sox are being intentionally cheap take a look at the payroll versus revenue stats from Sportrac.

As you can see the Red Sox are 4th in overall revenue in MLB. They trail only the LA Dodgers #1, the New York Yankees #2, and The Chicago Cubs #3 in total revenues. Yet their payroll percentage versus their revenue is 23rd overall in professional baseball. And we're not even counting the fake 2 year contracts such as Giolito or Sandoval who never play a game for the Red Sox even if their money is officially on the books.

Quite frankly I'm disgusted by how the 4th biggest team in MLB is being run like they are bottom dwelling minnows. The ownership has failed the fans. They have disappointed year after year and this has become a clear pattern of behavior now and it's tiresome.

 

I’ve seen this a few times… but had never recognized how little we ran into luxury tax…. An organization running into the luxury tax by 91k. Is that weird? Feels intentional so as to give excuses for not running salary up later. 

[UtahSox]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, Casas is about as bad on defense as any 1Bman in MLB, so he could still be an upgrade. (Casas might be our DH sooner than we think.)

If he's okay at 3B defense, I'm wondering why he sucks at 1B.

The option may be E Suarez, who is not great at 3B, but should be okay at 1B, if needed there. He might take a 2 year deal of with a mutual option 3rd year or opt out after 1 and or 2 years.

Per section 10 they have scouts who have followed Japanese hitters, and their thoughts were it wouldnt translate in MLB at 3b for either Okamoto or Munetaka. And that both will be poor at 1b, that most likely be destined for DH. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I’ve seen this a few times… but had never recognized how little we ran into luxury tax…. An organization running into the luxury tax by 91k. Is that weird? Feels intentional so as to give excuses for not running salary up later. 

I think the Lux Tax resets with a new CBA, so I don't think it matters much.