A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I probably wouldn't do it, but it is real close.  But that's more of a personal preference than my BB opinion.  And if we added a #2 in a trade, I would take them even over any team in the AL.

Well, you broke apart my two trades, and the other one got us that #2.

Basically, we trade Duran and Mayer plus some secondary pieces for a #2SP and a 2B/3Bman that doesn't cost as much as Bregman/Bichette.

[moonslav59]

Not saying I'm for this...

Trade:

Mayer, Crawford ($2.7M) and Hicks ($10.2M Tax hit) for K Marte $19.4M AAV (Adds $6M to tax budget.)

Duran $7.7M for Lodolo $4.5M (Saves $3M)

Sign Okamoto at $15M x 5

This keeps us near the tax line.

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K. Marte 2B

3. R Okamoto 3B

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Casas 1B

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo/Rookies

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Harrison, Dobbins, Kelly, Watson

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think you're high on Bregman.  My guess is that he falls to an affordable $150M/6 with a no-trade and an opt-out after Year 3.  Tie that into your previous post about Marte, add the #2 for Duran, and we are the best team in BB.

I'd be interested in Ranger at that price, though I am curious why DD is not chasing him.  As mentioned earlier, Okamoto for $70M/4 is good, but didn't Grisham accept the QO?

I don't think JH allows us to spend on Bregman & K Marte, unless we somehow dump some salary, like insisting AZ takes Hicks. The #2 SP could be cheap, like Lodolo or Ryan.

You are probably right on Bregman getting $150-155M/5 not $170M. I think Okamoto is more in JH's price range, and if we get AZ to cut some of the cost, maybe we can swing this:

Okamoto (give an extra year to bring down the AAV by $2-3M. ($15M x 6?)

Marte with only an added cost of about $10-13M (they take Hicks w Mayer or Duran)

Lodolo/Ryan/____? for Duran at no added cost on the budget.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer, Crawford ($2.7M) and Hicks ($10.2M Tax hit) for K Marte $19.4M AAV (Adds $6M to tax budget.)

Duran $7.7M for Lodolo $4.5M (Saves $3M)

Sign Okamoto at $15M x 5

I think either one of your two recent posts will work.  I think Duran is an overpay, but close enough that the Reds can kick in a semi-prospect.  

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think either one of your two recent posts will work.  I think Duran is an overpay, but close enough that the Reds can kick in a semi-prospect.  

I was thinking the same on Lodolo for Duran. I doubt they want anything to do with Hicks, but including him plus some cash might help balance it out.

CIN is not a big spending team, so I doubt they do that. Maybe we add a lower level prospect pitcher with Duran and get Lodolo and a nice prospect bat from Cincy.

My view is that there are ways we can get significantly better without spending too much money or trading away too many prospects, or creating gaping holes at other positions via trade-aways.

Losing Duran hurts, and it hurts the offense more than the D, but with Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu and then Campbell/Yoshida on the roster, the loss can be minimized.

Lodolo, Marte and Suarez might be too expensive, but that might be okay, as well as Okamoto at 3B/1B.

I do have concerns about Suarez's age, and to a lesser extent Marte's, but all those choices seem like good enough batters to make us better. 

Adding Lodolo and Gray, plus Oviedo is better than Gio, Buehler and others lost.

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was thinking the same on Lodolo for Duran. I doubt they want anything to do with Hicks, but including him plus some cash might help balance it out.

CIN is not a big spending team, so I doubt they do that. Maybe we add a lower level prospect pitcher with Duran and get Lodolo and a nice prospect bat from Cincy.

My view is that there are ways we can get significantly better without spending too much money or trading away too many prospects, or creating gaping holes at other positions via trade-aways.

Losing Duran hurts, and it hurts the offense more than the D, but with Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu and then Campbell/Yoshida on the roster, the loss can be minimized.

Lodolo, Marte and Suarez might be too expensive, but that might be okay, as well as Okamoto at 3B/1B.

I do have concerns about Suarez's age, and to a lesser extent Marte's, but all those choices seem like good enough batters to make us better. 

Adding Lodolo and Gray, plus Oviedo is better than Gio, Buehler and others lost.

Rotation was a strength of the team last year, youve added 3 pitchers already.  We're flipping our best trade chip (an offensive player) for a .....fourth pitching acquisition?

What happened to two big bats? What happened to one?

But Okajoko has 0 major league at-bats. Who hits second, third, fourth?  ANd if its a wildcard (okie), abreu, and story guess what? Rotation is NOT going to matter. Cuz your fourth place.  Five aces and your fourth place.  

Is Kutter Crawford hitting third?

You all may think you want pitching and defense even if it comes with noodlebat city, but ive seen that movie before and you'll be turning off the game when its 2-0 in the second because we'l be averaging 1.8 runs / game.

Then 3 of your five aces will get hurt.  The BP will start blowing games and we'll be talking about 2028 in July while Pumpsie takes a victory lap.

Do you, though.
 

[drewski6]

I would have liked Lodolo, I like the pitcher a lot.

We , at this point, have 11 pitchers and 0 guys who were top 50 hitters last year (if we move Duran for Lodolo).  If you think one 22 yr old sophmore (Roman) is enough, you are punting

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Rotation was a strength of the team last year, youve added 3 pitchers already.  We're flipping our best trade chip (an offensive player) for a .....fourth pitching acquisition?

What happened to two big bats? What happened to one?

But Okajoko has 0 major league at-bats. Who hits second, third, fourth?  ANd if its a wildcard (okie), abreu, and story guess what? Rotation is NOT going to matter. Cuz your fourth place.  Five aces and your fourth place.  

Is Kutter Crawford hitting third?

You all may think you want pitching and defense even if it comes with noodlebat city, but ive seen that movie before and you'll be turning off the game when its 2-0 in the second because we'l be averaging 1.8 runs / game.

Then 3 of your five aces will get hurt.  The BP will start blowing games and we'll be talking about 2028 in July while Pumpsie takes a victory lap.

Do you, though.
 

SD was top 3 in ERA last season and 18th in runs. That's what the Sox would be. YUCKO! 

 

They also went 90-72. 🫠 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I would have liked Lodolo, I like the pitcher a lot.

We , at this point, have 11 pitchers and 0 guys who were top 50 hitters last year (if we move Duran for Lodolo).  If you think one 22 yr old sophmore (Roman) is enough, you are punting

Duran was 34th in fWAR, Cedanne was 38th. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

SD was top 3 in ERA last season and 18th in runs. That's what the Sox would be. YUCKO! 

 

They also went 90-72. 🫠 

I disagree that we'd be 18th in runs if you subtract Duran, Bregman and only add the Japanese hitter.  And also, I think the dudes who want the Japanese player are underestimating his market and hes not as cheap as they pencil him in for, either.

Also, SD didnt get out of the first round.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran was 34th in fWAR, Cedanne was 38th. 

Thats great, im talking about hitting.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran was 34th in fWAR, Cedanne was 38th. 

Whats the projected wrc+

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Whats the projected wrc+

Why do I care? Do the projections earn them anything going into the season? Home field advantage in the playoffs? Reduced tax penalties? Better beer draft selections. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The last homegrown Red Sox player to bat .300 was Bogaerts.

The last one before him was Devers.

The one before him was Betts.

The one before him was Pedroia.

All four played together in 2017 for the middle club of three straight first place teams.

They weren't just guys who could hit home runs, but guys who could hit.

The current roster has no one like that. We hope Roman Anthony can be that guy... but where are the others? Who is part of any longterm heart of the order in Boston, the core of the next sustained contenders? We hope prospects like Mayer and Campbell can make it, and established regulars can cut down their strikeouts... but right now there's nada.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The last homegrown Red Sox player to bat .300 was Bogaerts.

The last one before him was Devers.

The one before him was Betts.

The one before him was Pedroia.

All four played together in 2017 for the middle club of three straight first place teams.

They weren't just guys who could hit home runs, but guys who could hit.

The current roster has no one like that. We hope Roman Anthony can be that guy... but where are the others? Who is part of any longterm heart of the order in Boston, the core of the next sustained contenders? We hope prospects like Mayer and Campbell can make it, and established regulars can cut down their strikeouts... but right now there's nada.

Only 7 batters hit above 300 last season. Bichette was one. Yandy was another (name mentioned via trade here and there). 

[JoeBrady]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why do I care? Do the projections earn them anything going into the season? Home field advantage in the playoffs? Reduced tax penalties? Better beer draft selections. 

If you don't care about projects, then I am willing to play SS for $1M, which leaves you a ton of money to spend elsewhere.  Full disclosure-I can't catch a groundball, but as long as we aren't projecting anything...

[drewski6]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why do I care? Do the projections earn them anything going into the season? Home field advantage in the playoffs? Reduced tax penalties? Better beer draft selections. 

Im not in love with projections either.  I was only trying to differentiate between hitting and WAR.  I do not believe that an A+ hitter and a c+ fielder vs a C+ hitter and an a+ defender are interchangeable.  

I am very concerned about our lack of bats. Cedannes defense does 0 for this concern.

Im not a good pitching beats good hitting guy, nor am I a pitching wins chapionships guy.  Im sick of hearing abou run prevention. I think one day someone made up a bunch of misleading cliches, but teams generally go as far as their bats will take them.  Especially these days when sub 4 era pitchers grow on trees, but guys who can still mash in a pitcher's era like judge, vlad, ohtani, freeman seem to get further.

Im not saying pitching and defense are inconsequential or meaningless.  But I do believe that if you can choose between having :1) elite hitting, 2) elite defense and 3) elite pitching, there IS a right answer and its not preference. And its hitting.  I am also open to the possibility that I am wrong.

[drewski6]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The last homegrown Red Sox player to bat .300 was Bogaerts.

The last one before him was Devers.

The one before him was Betts.

The one before him was Pedroia.

All four played together in 2017 for the middle club of three straight first place teams.

They weren't just guys who could hit home runs, but guys who could hit.

The current roster has no one like that. We hope Roman Anthony can be that guy... but where are the others? Who is part of any longterm heart of the order in Boston, the core of the next sustained contenders? We hope prospects like Mayer and Campbell can make it, and established regulars can cut down their strikeouts... but right now there's nada.

I do think Roman will be that guy, especially if we are setting the bar low enough to include Pedroia (no knock on pedey, i think roman will be a better hitter).  But I do not think that teams should put their eggs in any sophmore's basket.  Roman will be a 22 yr old sophmore. Sophmore's slump. ALso, he doesnt even have his man strenght yet.

Im fine with Roman leading off.  I think he is going to be next year , a top 5 leadoff hitter, in all of baseball. But I dont think hes going to be an absolute lineup carrying superstar next year.  In fact, I think its very hard for a leadoff hitter to do this.  If we had 2 very good hitters hitting behind him, we would be a much much much much much better team.  And some people just poo-poo that need and it boggles my mind.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If you don't care about projects, then I am willing to play SS for $1M, which leaves you a ton of money to spend elsewhere.  Full disclosure-I can't catch a groundball, but as long as we aren't projecting anything...

Do you really think he meant that results dont matter when he said hes not interested in researching projections? Or are you taking a comment and making it what you want to be in order to score a point? Do you think you are fooling literally anyone?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 7 batters hit above 300 last season. Bichette was one. Yandy was another (name mentioned via trade here and there). 

Now its you who is not arguing in good faith.

Substitue .300 hitter for top 20% in wrc+ or something else

Hes saying we have had historical success when we've had good hitters, and right now we dont have good hitters.

[drewski6]

We had like one player in the top 50 in runs created last year, and it was the guy who everyone thinks we should trade for pitching for our fourth pitching acquisition this offseason (0 offense).  And if you are pointing to roman and mayer, you are punting. Because those guys are 5 years away from their prime.  And we are already 7 lousy years into a rebuild.

Rebuilds for big market teams should not take 12 years.  ANd by the way, these dudes who some of you have been waiting for a decade are trending down.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

If you don't care about projects, then I am willing to play SS for $1M, which leaves you a ton of money to spend elsewhere.  Full disclosure-I can't catch a groundball, but as long as we aren't projecting anything...

Done!!

Except you will play 2b…

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

We had like one player in the top 50 in runs created last year, and it was the guy who everyone thinks we should trade for pitching for our fourth pitching acquisition this offseason (0 offense).  And if you are pointing to roman and mayer, you are punting. Because those guys are 5 years away from their prime.  And we are already 7 lousy years into a rebuild.

Rebuilds for big market teams should not take 12 years.  ANd by the way, these dudes who some of you have been waiting for a decade are trending down.

Hey I want to trade him for Marte.

Top 50 or not, the Sox have 4 viable candidates to start in the OF.  Given they have other needs, one of them is the most logical trade candidate….

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Hey I want to trade him for Marte.

Top 50 or not, the Sox have 4 viable candidates to start in the OF.  Given they have other needs, one of them is the most logical trade candidate….

That doesnt bother me.  You dont bother me except for one thing.  We (your fans) want you to bring back shocked face moe.

Do you know what your boston.com pic was in 2007 when we won the ws? Do you not want to win the ws? I even retrieved it for you! (It was this one, right? Im not 100% this was the exact shocked face moe pic)

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not saying pitching and defense are inconsequential or meaningless.  But I do believe that if you can choose between having :1) elite hitting, 2) elite defense and 3) elite pitching, there IS a right answer and its not preference. And its hitting.  I am also open to the possibility that I am wrong.

I don't think you can play favorites with those 3 if you want to be a winner. You have to very good all around. Sox have said they want two bats and need better defense, but we don't know their path forward TBH.

The only Sox WS team that punted on one of those 3 areas was the 04 Sox and defense. 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Now its you who is not arguing in good faith.

Substitue .300 hitter for top 20% in wrc+ or something else

Hes saying we have had historical success when we've had good hitters, and right now we dont have good hitters.

I wasn't arguing. I was bringing up two players that could further the point. Two guys that could help the BoSox. Two guys that people on here have talked about bringing in. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Hey I want to trade him for Marte.

Top 50 or not, the Sox have 4 viable candidates to start in the OF.  Given they have other needs, one of them is the most logical trade candidate….

3 out of the 4 are LHB as well. Plus, they have an 18M LHB already signed to be DH.

If they didn't have Masa, I'd just rotate Anthony/Abreu/Duran through DH. 

[drewski6]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think you can play favorites with those 3 if you want to be a winner. You have to very good all around. Sox have said they want two bats and need better defense, but we don't know their path forward TBH.

The only Sox WS team that punted on one of those 3 areas was the 04 Sox and defense. 

I very strongly believe that hitting (45%) + baserunning (5%) = pitching (35%) + defense (15%)

Its algebraic (kind of) but it derives from runs created = runs prevented, then breaks down each side of the equation into components and because i think baserunning is the least impactful of the 4, that makes the other component in that equation's side highest imporance if that makes sense.

This kind of is derived from my 11th grade physics teacher, who burned into my head that f = ma. And then he would draw a giant f with a tiny m and a huge A.  Or a giant f with a huge m and a tiny a.

The point is that force alwasy equals mass * acceleration. so if you have a lot of force and not a lot of mass , you have a real lot of acceleration.

Runs prevented always equals runs created (in terms of importance) so if one component of the runs created side is small (in terms of importance) the other component must be large. Im not sure if i am explaining that well.

ALso, should probabaly disclose that the physics teacher im talking about quit and ran away with one of his high school students (she was 18 but still gross)

[drewski6]

Just now, drewski6 said:

I very strongly believe that hitting (45%) + baserunning (5%) = pitching (35%) + defense (15%)

Its algebraic (kind of) but it derives from runs created = runs prevented, then breaks down each side of the equation into components and because i think baserunning is the least impactful of the 4, that makes the other component in that equation's side highest imporance if that makes sense.

This kind of is derived from my 11th grade physics teacher, who burned into my head that f = ma. And then he would draw a giant f with a tiny m and a huge A.  Or a giant f with a huge m and a tiny a.

The point is that force alwasy equals mass * acceleration. so if you have a lot of force and not a lot of mass , you have a real lot of acceleration.

Runs prevented always equals runs created (in terms of importance) so if one component of the runs created side is small (in terms of importance) the other component must be large. Im not sure if i am explaining that well.

ALso, should probabaly disclose that the physics teacher im talking about quit and ran away with one of his high school students (she was 18 but still gross)

she wasnt gross, the situation was gross.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

3 out of the 4 are LHB as well. Plus, they have an 18M LHB already signed to be DH.

If they didn't have Masa, I'd just rotate Anthony/Abreu/Duran through DH. 

And that becomes possible if they can move Yoshida.  Of course any trade of Yoshida will yield nothing in the way of an enthusiastic return.

There is also the unpopular solution of returning Rafaela to the INF, where he is much less of a contributor.  But he might be the best internal option for 2b, not counting their other starting infielders…