A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Can free agent pitcher king stay healthy? He has tremendous stuff when he is healthy!!!

I'm not too impressed with the FA pitching class.

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, notin said:

One trade I think I’d like to see is Jhostnyxon Garcis to San Diego for RHRP Jeremiah Estrada.

Garcia is a BA Top 100 prospect currently 6th on the Sox OF depth chart, sitting behind Duran, Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela and possibly Kristian Campbell.  Using him as a RHH platoon option is a waste.  Either play him or trade him.  And it would take a lot of injuries to need to play him.

San Diego needs an OF.  They have virtually no prospect depth and started the rather vanilla Bryce Johnson in LF during the postseason.  And their bullpen is absolutely stacked with Robert Suarez (whose option will be exercised), Mason Miller, and Adrian Morejon at the backend with Estrada.

A bullpen with Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, and Estrada at the back end can do wonders for the SP, leaving them fewer IP.

BTV does value both players nearly identically.

Make the call, Craig…

Preller loves Duran. He's going to want him or nobody from us I think. 

[moonslav59]

I'm all for trading Duran for the right return, but if we don't add two bats (better than Duran & Bregman) our offense takes a step back, when need a major step up.

I realize that for many years the farm focus was on everyday players, and we have about 12-15 pretty decently, mostly young bats with a lot of promise, but we need to add some surer bets.

If Breggie returns we still need two bats- maybe just one mega and the other like a Hoskins, Polanco or even Torres.

[moonslav59]

For how many years have we heard criticism about the 2-3 "black holes" our line-up seemed to have year-after-year? With all the 2025 injuries, we saw it happen, again this season, but the reality is that our line-up was one of the most balanced in MLB.

Let's start with the reality of a league with a .719 OPS, this year. (It was .734 in 2023 & .758 in '19.) One big help for the Sox was having a catcher that his .726. Many teams had a black hole from that slot. Only 17 out of the top 37 catchers by PAs had an OPS over .719. The Sox did end up with a black hole at 1B, due to the Casas injury, but Lowe was acquired in AUG and topped the .719 mark with a decent .790 OPS. Rafaela fell below the .719 mark, but it's hard to view 11 points under average as a "black hole." Even Yoshida managed to get his OPS out of the "black hole" range (.696)

Our black holes in 2025 were:

.659 Toro (10th in PAs and the Casas back-up, until Lowe/Romy took over 1B)

.664 Campbell (11th in PAs and one more failure at fixing the long-standing 2B issue.)

.590 DHam (14th in PAs hardly matters much, but when coupled w KC: OUCH!)

.500 Wong (15th and as a back up catcher with improved defense, maybe near acceptable.)

Of course, we can't really count our #8 PA guy, Devers in the mix (.905,) so here are the rest:

Listed by most PAs:

.774 Duran (24 SBs)

.741 Story (31 SBs)

.708 Rafaela (20 SBs)

.821 Bregman (46 XBHs in 433 ABs)

.726 Narvaez (42 XBHs in 403 ABs)

.786 Abreu (39 XBHs in 373)

.826 Romy (35 XBHs in 341)

.859 Anthony (Could be the key to '26)

.838 Refsnyder (21 XBHs in 209 ABs)

.696 Yoshida (just 15 XBHs in 188)

.674 Mayer (13 in 136)

.790 Lowe (just 9 in 100)

In short, it looks like we have done a great job cutting way back on black hole bats getting near FT play, but now the problem has shifted to the lack of a couple big bopper bats blatantly bashing balls.

If we can replace the Toro's, DHam's & Wong's with a couple top batters, maybe we can go places.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

For how many years have we heard criticism about the 2-3 "black holes" our line-up seemed to have year-after-year? With all the 2025 injuries, we saw it happen, again this season, but the reality is that our line-up was one of the most balanced in MLB.

Let's start with the reality of a league with a .719 OPS, this year. (It was .734 in 2023 & .758 in '19.) One big help for the Sox was having a catcher that his .726. Many teams had a black hole from that slot. Only 17 out of the top 37 catchers by PAs had an OPS over .719. The Sox did end up with a black hole at 1B, due to the Casas injury, but Lowe was acquired in AUG and topped the .719 mark with a decent .790 OPS. Rafaela fell below the .719 mark, but it's hard to view 11 points under average as a "black hole." Even Yoshida managed to get his OPS out of the "black hole" range (.696)

Our black holes in 2025 were:

.659 Toro (10th in PAs and the Casas back-up, until Lowe/Romy took over 1B)

.664 Campbell (11th in PAs and one more failure at fixing the long-standing 2B issue.)

.590 DHam (14th in PAs hardly matters much, but when coupled w KC: OUCH!)

.500 Wong (15th and as a back up catcher with improved defense, maybe near acceptable.)

Of course, we can't really count our #8 PA guy, Devers in the mix (.905,) so here are the rest:

Listed by most PAs:

.774 Duran (24 SBs)

.741 Story (31 SBs)

.708 Rafaela (20 SBs)

.821 Bregman (46 XBHs in 433 ABs)

.726 Narvaez (42 XBHs in 403 ABs)

.786 Abreu (39 XBHs in 373)

.826 Romy (35 XBHs in 341)

.859 Anthony (Could be the key to '26)

.838 Refsnyder (21 XBHs in 209 ABs)

.696 Yoshida (just 15 XBHs in 188)

.674 Mayer (13 in 136)

.790 Lowe (just 9 in 100)

In short, it looks like we have done a great job cutting way back on black hole bats getting near FT play, but now the problem has shifted to the lack of a couple big bopper bats blatantly bashing balls.

If we can replace the Toro's, DHam's & Wong's with a couple top batters, maybe we can go places.

They were 7th in runs and 11th in wRC+. There couldn't have been THAT many holes in last year's offense. I think the issue is that a high k lineup is just going to struggle against good pitching when it gets to the playoffs. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Preller loves Duran. He's going to want him or nobody from us I think. 

On BTV’s model, he’d have to break up his team to get Duran.  Or take Yoshida, not the best contract for a team actively paring salary in recent years…

[notin]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They were 7th in runs and 11th in wRC+. There couldn't have been THAT many holes in last year's offense. I think the issue is that a high k lineup is just going to struggle against good pitching when it gets to the playoffs. 

Also possible we are reading too much into a 3 game sample in which the entire bench played every game…

[Jasonbay44]

I know some of the players had good numbers against LHP, but I just don’t think a lineup featuring Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez batting lead off and cleanup and a lineup with Nick Sogard and Nate Eaton in general is ideal at all in a playoff series. 
 

This team could really use another elite hitter who isn’t only useful as a platoon bat, someone who can hit both handed pitchers, or at least isn’t completely useless against hand of pitcher. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, Jasonbay44 said:

I know some of the players had good numbers against LHP, but I just don’t think a lineup featuring Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez batting lead off and cleanup and a lineup with Nick Sogard and Nate Eaton in general is ideal at all in a playoff series. 
 

This team could really use another elite hitter who isn’t only useful as a platoon bat, someone who can hit both handed pitchers, or at least isn’t completely useless against hand of pitcher. 

Not to mention, while r Refsnyder and Romy do excel vs LHP, all LHP is not equal.  Fried and Rodon did not get 9 figure contracts because they couldn’t get right-handed hitters out…

[Maxbialystock]

On 10/8/2025 at 8:24 PM, moonslav59 said:

A look at the 2026 Red Sox Pen:

Many of us went into 2025 deeply dissatisfied with the quality of our pen. While it appeared to have depth, the quality of the expected high leverage pitchers was highly in doubt. The pen became one of our strengths, thanks in large part to a stunning season by Chapman and a strong year from Whitlock. The depth came through, despite not really drawing from the expected depth of SP'ers we had lined up over the winter.

We may get to use more SP'ers in the pen in 2026, but I will start with the known pen arms on the roster: 

Chapman had a legendary season, and that is no hyperbole. 61.1 IP with just 28 hits (3 Hrs) and 15 BBs (0 HBP.) He K'd 85. His OPS Against was a mind-boggling .387! It's hard to expect anybody to repeat numbers like that, and for a guy who will be 38 to start the '26 season, it would be miraculous.  Brez extended him, so we'll find out. I'm happy he's here.

Whitlock had his first start-free season since his rookie year in 2021. Some might say it was no coincidence we made the playoffs in just these two seasons. If it wasn't for Chapman, we'd be marvelling at his .543 OPS Against for 2025. In 72 IP, he let up less HRs (2) than Chapman. I'm hopeful he can run back these numbers in '26.

Slaten missed a lot of key time in 2025, and perhaps the most important thing for him is to just stay healthy for the full 2026 season. His rookie 2024 season was pretty amazing. He had a .576 OPS Against in 55 IP with a 6.4 K/BB. Although most of his numbers looked worse in 2026, he still logged a .580 OPS Against over 34 IP. Perhaps we can count on him to counter an expected regression from Chapman. I gotta say, I think we have an impressive top 3 RP'ers.

Weissert caught some grief over the season, much of it during game thread lash-outs, but he did the job in 2025. He very well may outshine Fitts as the prize from the Dugo trade. He put in 67 IP with a decent .647 OPS Against. I'm hoping we can count on him, again in 2026.

Bernardino had a second straight decent season. His .569 OPSA was impressive. He missed some time, near the end of the season, but I think he's locked into a sure slot on the 2026 26 man roster.

Guerrero .530 OPSA in just 17 IP could still win a big role on the '26 roster.

Murphy .598 OPSA in 35 IP looks great, but he walked too many batters and was inconsistent. He was coming off a long time off with injury, so maybe there is till hope for a significant role in 2026.

Winckowski missed most of 2025, but was a decent pitcher for a few years, beforehand. His 2023 saw a 2.88 ERA, but he's never really had great numbers in other areas or measurement.

Moran could be a surprise pitcher for 2026.

Kelly did not impress but will likely get another long look in 2025.

Hicks might have an inside shot at a slot on the 26, but only because he's out of options, gets paid $12M a year and throws near 100 mph.

I won't go into all the SP'ers who may be converted to pen arms or used in the pen temporarily, but there could be some impressive skillsets available.

I'm pretty confident in our 2026 pen outlook, despite losing Wilson, Matz and a few others.

Impressive laydown.  

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They were 7th in runs and 11th in wRC+. There couldn't have been THAT many holes in last year's offense. I think the issue is that a high k lineup is just going to struggle against good pitching when it gets to the playoffs. 

They also had more high end batters in '24 than '25, especially among top PAs players.

Split Season Listed by most PAs '24 and '25

.834 Duran '24 (a top hitter in '24 NOT '25) > .774 Duran '25

.741 Story '25

.871 Devers '24> .821 Bregman '25 and .905 Devers for 2 months in '25

.708 Rafaela '25 

.664 Rafaela '24 (black hole in '24 not '25)

.758 Wong '24 (black hole in '25 not '24>  but we had .726 Narvaez '25

.847 O'Neill a top hitter in '24>>> replaced by .859 Anthony '25

.781 Abreu '24 >>.786 Abreu '25 (near the same as '24)

.765 Yoshida '24 (near a black hole in '25)

.826 Romy '25

.905 Devers '25 (traded away)

______________________________

.830 Ref '24>.838 in '25

.659 Toro '25 (black hole) .>706 D Smith ('24 near black hole)

.800 Casas '24> .664 Campbell '25 (black hole)

.633 E Valdez '24 + .723 Romy '24 > .697 DHam '24 (became a black hole in '25)

 

Here's another way of looking at it: worst OPS in 2024 or 2025 (200+ PAs)

We started the 2024 season with 2 guys that went on to be blackholes and Wong became one the following year. We started 2025 with Campbell as a soon-to-be black hole. It was 2 to 1.

2024 EValdez .633 in 223 PAs was the starting 2Bman opening day '24 (See DHam below)

2025 Toro .659 in 284 as a sub not a starter

2024 Rafaela .664 (no longer a black hole in '25) Starting CF'er

2025 Campbell .664 was staring 2Bman in '25

Borderline Black Holes:

2025 Yoshida .696

2024 DHam .697 took over 2B

 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

On BTV’s model, he’d have to break up his team to get Duran.  Or take Yoshida, not the best contract for a team actively paring salary in recent years…

Agreed, but if the give up Buxton and or Lopez, they'd still save a lot. (Or, we pay a chunk of Yoshida's deal.)

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but if the give up Buxton and or Lopez, they'd still save a lot. (Or, we pay a chunk of Yoshida's deal.)

Actually the post you’re replying to was about Preller and San Diego…

[notin]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Preller loves Duran. He's going to want him or nobody from us I think. 

Also, I don’t think Preller is all “Duran or bust.”  He did move on to Ramon Laureano last year, a step down so large I assume bungy cord was involved…

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Also possible we are reading too much into a 3 game sample in which the entire bench played every game…

And Game 2 is probably won 40-45% of the time if they play if over and over again. It was a very close series. If the Sox want to be WS contenders, they need to have a deeper rotation, better defense and add HR's or reduce k's IMO. 

K rates

TOR: 17.8% #1 (low k, av HR)

MIL: 20.3% #5 (low k, low HR)

CHC: 20.7% #7 (low k, high HR)

HR rates

LAD: 244 #2 (av k, high HR)

SEA: 238 #3 (high HR, high k)

CHC: 223 #6 (low k, high HR)

 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Actually the post you’re replying to was about Preller and San Diego…

My bad.

[Maxbialystock]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Not to mention, while r Refsnyder and Romy do excel vs LHP, all LHP is not equal.  Fried and Rodon did not get 9 figure contracts because they couldn’t get right-handed hitters out…

Good pitching is good pitching, righty or lefty. 

This season the Sox OPS's against lefties and righties were both around .744. 

Righty batters are usually better at hitting righty pitchers than lefty bats hitting lefty pitchers simply because most pitchers are righties.  If you want to play everyday, you must hit righties. 

So Story, Rafaela, Bregman, and Narvaez, were almost as good against righties as lefties.  Gonzalez was way better against lefties. 

None of the Sox lefty bats--Anthony, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida, Lowe, Mayer--hit lefties as well as righties.  Except Casas, who in 11 at bats vs lefties had a 1.409 OPS.  In 88 at bats vs righties it was .477.  The other exception was Devers, whose OPS's vs righties and lefties were both over .900!!!!  Also, as a DH he never missed a game.  

Given the above plus the Green Monster, I think the Sox should go for a good righty bat at almost any position.  Were it not for his weak arm in the outfield, Aaron Judge would be a decent fit.  😄

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Good pitching is good pitching, righty or lefty. 

This season the Sox OPS's against lefties and righties were both around .744. 

Righty batters are usually better at hitting righty pitchers than lefty bats hitting lefty pitchers simply because most pitchers are righties.  If you want to play everyday, you must hit righties. 

So Story, Rafaela, Bregman, and Narvaez, were almost as good against righties as lefties.  Gonzalez was way better against lefties. 

None of the Sox lefty bats--Anthony, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida, Lowe, Mayer--hit lefties as well as righties.  Except Casas, who in 11 at bats vs lefties had a 1.409 OPS.  In 88 at bats vs righties it was .477.  The other exception was Devers, whose OPS's vs righties and lefties were both over .900!!!!  Also, as a DH he never missed a game.  

Given the above plus the Green Monster, I think the Sox should go for a good righty bat at almost any position.  Were it not for his weak arm in the outfield, Aaron Judge would be a decent fit.  😄

Growing up, most hitters are used to learning almost exclusively off of RHP from dads, coaches and other kids. I can see how it's a little bit harder for LHB vs LHP as it's not as ubiquitous. Kids just don't get those reps during practice.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Good pitching is good pitching, righty or lefty. 

This season the Sox OPS's against lefties and righties were both around .744. 

Righty batters are usually better at hitting righty pitchers than lefty bats hitting lefty pitchers simply because most pitchers are righties.  If you want to play everyday, you must hit righties. 

So Story, Rafaela, Bregman, and Narvaez, were almost as good against righties as lefties.  Gonzalez was way better against lefties. 

None of the Sox lefty bats--Anthony, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida, Lowe, Mayer--hit lefties as well as righties.  Except Casas, who in 11 at bats vs lefties had a 1.409 OPS.  In 88 at bats vs righties it was .477.  The other exception was Devers, whose OPS's vs righties and lefties were both over .900!!!!  Also, as a DH he never missed a game.  

Given the above plus the Green Monster, I think the Sox should go for a good righty bat at almost any position.  Were it not for his weak arm in the outfield, Aaron Judge would be a decent fit.  😄

 

Casas has a history of doing okay v L (.796) and is almost identical to vs R (.814)

Rafaela has reverse splits, but since he's not very good both vs L and R, it might not matter much. With an OF full of lefties, he does not help, when we face RHPs.

Abreu & Romy both improved measurably vs LHPs, but we can't be sure that continues.

[Maxbialystock]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They also had more high end batters in '24 than '25, especially among top PAs players.

Split Season Listed by most PAs '24 and '25

.834 Duran '24 (a top hitter in '24 NOT '25) > .774 Duran '25

.741 Story '25

.871 Devers '24> .821 Bregman '25 and .905 Devers for 2 months in '25

.708 Rafaela '25 

.664 Rafaela '24 (black hole in '24 not '25)

.758 Wong '24 (black hole in '25 not '24>  but we had .726 Narvaez '25

.847 O'Neill a top hitter in '24>>> replaced by .859 Anthony '25

.781 Abreu '24 >>.786 Abreu '25 (near the same as '24)

.765 Yoshida '24 (near a black hole in '25)

.826 Romy '25

.905 Devers '25 (traded away)

______________________________

.830 Ref '24>.838 in '25

.659 Toro '25 (black hole) .>706 D Smith ('24 near black hole)

.800 Casas '24> .664 Campbell '25 (black hole)

.633 E Valdez '24 + .723 Romy '24 > .697 DHam '24 (became a black hole in '25)

 

Here's another way of looking at it: worst OPS in 2024 or 2025 (200+ PAs)

We started the 2024 season with 2 guys that went on to be blackholes and Wong became one the following year. We started 2025 with Campbell as a soon-to-be black hole. It was 2 to 1.

2024 EValdez .633 in 223 PAs was the starting 2Bman opening day '24 (See DHam below)

2025 Toro .659 in 284 as a sub not a starter

2024 Rafaela .664 (no longer a black hole in '25) Starting CF'er

2025 Campbell .664 was staring 2Bman in '25

Borderline Black Holes:

2025 Yoshida .696

2024 DHam .697 took over 2B

 

Also a good laydown.  To me the big difference between 2024 and 2025 was Devers leaving 15 June 2025.  

The good news is I think Anthony shows even more promise than Devers did in his early years.  Bregman could be a 2d good bat--he was for the first half of this season--if he can stay off the IL.  And let's not forget that after May of 2024 Story's OPS's were .827 in June, .870 in July, .817 in August, and ,795 in September--plus in the Wild Card 3 games, his OPS was 1.000.  

For the middle of the order, I see Abreu, Yoshida, and Gonzalez, who I think are all capable of .800 OPS's.  In the 3d wild card game, Yoshida had 2 of 5 Sox hits, and in the series his OPS was 1.143.  In September it was .837.  

And for the bottom 3 I see Rafaela, Narvaez/Wong, and whoever plays 1b.  If Casas stops going on the IL and meets his career .800 OPS, so much the better.  

Plus let's not forget Mayer, who can field and hit.  If Bregman leaves, Mayer would be an excellent fit at 3b but not a top 3 hitter.  

if the Sox pick up a good bat this offseason, so much the better.  

 

 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

if the Sox pick up a good bat this offseason, so much the better.  

 

Good post, max.

I don't think we can say "if." We simply have to add one big bat, even if Breggie returns and two if he bolts.

I'm actually for adding 2 big bats w Breggie or 3 w/o, but that ain't happening.

[moonslav59]

If you had to pick one projected OPS for 2026, which would it be? Closer to A or B?

2025 OPS

.859 Anthony: A. 775/ B .850 (I pick B)

.786 Abreu: A. .775/ B. .850 (B)

.774 Duran: A .800/ B .725 (A)

.741 Story: A. .700/ B. .775 (A)

.708 Rafaela: A. .650/ B. .725 (B)

.726 Narvaez: A. .675/ B. .750 (B)

.696 Yoshida: A. .725/ B. .800 (B)

.674 Mayer: A. .700/ B. 775 (B)

.580 Casas: A. .750/ B. .825 (B)

.826 Romy: A. .750/ B. .825 (A)

.500 Wong: A. .625/ B. .700 (B)

_____________________

If returns...

.821 Bregman: A. .750/ B. .825 A)

.838 Refsnyder: A. .775/ B. .850 (B as strict platoon)

.790 Lowe: A. .725/ B. .800 (A)

 

[moonslav59]

How about the three Rays with one last team option with buyouts?

1B Yandy Diaz $12M (No buyout)

2B Brandon Lowe $11.5M ($500K buyout)

RP Pete Fairbanks $7M ($1M buyout)

We certainly will not trade for all 3, but they'd all surely make our 26 man roster, as it stands now. Diaz over Lowe or Casas. Lowe over DHam, Grissom and Sogard. Fairbanks over all but 3-4 pen arms likely to make the 8 man pen.

It's hard to know who the Rays covet, but we know they don't want high-prices players. Even Duran at $7*M then 2 arbs might be too expensive for them. They might like guys like Rafaela and Campbell, knowing they can trade them, when their contracts grow larger. They might like DHam, but if they do, not as the centerpiece of a deal.

Would DHam & Sandlin get un Lowe? Romero & Mullins?

Casas for Diaz? 

Sandlin or Mullins for Fairbanks? Paez & Monegro?

Campbell & Mullins for all three? (I'm not sure I'd do that, unless we got Fairbanks or Lowe to extend.)

I'm sure they'd like a young pitcher or two, but I'm not sure we'd give up a real good one for a one and done player(s.) I doubt Rule 5 guys like Sandlin or Mullins get it done. The Rays have 40 man roster issues, too.

 

[moonslav59]

Some other players that may be available for a trade, due to a cheap owner and or an increasing contract:

PIT: Keller $16.5m>$18M>$20M ($15.4M AAV)

MIA: Alcantara $17M & club option '27 for $21M ($2M buyout) $11.2M AAV

AZ: K Marte $15M>$12M>$20M>$22M> $22M> $11.5M player option in '31  ($19.4M AAV)

TX: Seager $31M x 6 (#32.5M AAV ) Semien $26M>$26M>$20M ($25M AAV,)  Nate: $25M>$20M ($25M AAV)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

The good news is I think Anthony shows even more promise than Devers did in his early years. 

Max, I know Devers is dead to most Sox fans right now, but I remember watching him spray ropes all over the field in 2019 when he was 22 and thinking he could be the best hitter in the league. That was the year Raffy had 90 extra-base hits, with career highs in batting average, slugging and OPS... and a career-low K-rate.

But ever since, Devers tried to pull every pitch to New Hampshire and became more all-or-nothing like most modern sluggers. Not sure if it was ego, money ("home run hitters drive Cadillacs") or requests by the org -- but I hope none of those factors taint Roman Anthony's path to stardom.

Anthony looks like he has the potential to command the strike zone and consistently use the Green Monster to win batting crowns, like other Red Sox lefty swingers named Lynn and Boggs.

We also know Fenway doesn't favor lefty pull hitters, especially since the sky boxes installed behind home plate in 1988 blocked the wind currents that surely helped Yaz and Ted aim for the red seat before then... (or the protein shakes that helped Papi).

 

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some other players that may be available for a trade, due to a cheap owner and or an increasing contract:

PIT: Keller $16.5m>$18M>$20M ($15.4M AAV)

MIA: Alcantara $17M & club option '27 for $21M ($2M buyout) $11.2M AAV

AZ: K Marte $15M>$12M>$20M>$22M> $22M> $11.5M player option in '31  ($19.4M AAV)

TX: Seager $31M x 6 (#32.5M AAV ) Semien $26M>$26M>$20M ($25M AAV,)  Nate: $25M>$20M ($25M AAV)

Keller and Alcantara are definitely available.

Marte? My personal theory is that he is, but no rumors around that I know of.

Seager and Eovaldi? Unlikely.  Semien should be, but even without hitting he was worth around 3.5 WAR last year…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Keller and Alcantara are definitely available.

Marte? My personal theory is that he is, but no rumors around that I know of.

Seager and Eovaldi? Unlikely.  Semien should be, but even without hitting he was worth around 3.5 WAR last year…

It's hard to know how TEX and AZ are looking at their budgets and near future chances, as well as some other teams. There may be a team out there I'm overlooking.

AZ already traded some of their better players and lose Gallen to free agency. TEX has to be dissapointed, and have to see an aging roster in front of them. I doubt they chose to open a window for a 1-2 year stretch: they may decide to retool, and we have a lot of young talent and high potential players.

I realize most of us overvalue our own players, but I also think we undervalue some players who don't have flashy numbers or just had a tough season. For example, I think many GMs would jump at the opportunity to get Rafaela and even Campbell. Both are not overpaid. Many view Abreu as a the dreaded "platoon guy," but every GM would love him on their roster and would pay a pretty high price to get him. I will agree that Casas has lost almost all his trade value, and that's why I'd keep him, but maybe some GMs would pay for him. Our younger pitchers have to be on many GMs minds. With the cost and risk associated with FA pitchers, I think every team is looking at trading for young and low-cost pitchers, even if some have only potential or speculative value.

I loved the strategy of loading up on depth, and the recent focus on pitching depth is one major reason we made the playoffs, this season, but with our window open wide, right now, I think the focus needs to be on higher quality, at the expense of extended, decent quantity. I see this for our line-up and am with Drew on the call for a couple big bats- minimum. I also see this with our rotation. We have a lot of solid #3-4 types or potential #2-4 types, but only Crochet looks to be a sure bet top 60 SP'er in 2026. I'd like to see us have 3 top 60 pitchers, or at least 2. Sure, Bello & Gio were top 60 in most relevant categories, and that is a big reason we did this well, but Gio is a goner, and Bello raised some questions to end the season.

I'm certainly not against the idea of having quality depth for our rotation. We need to keep some. We saw what happened when we traded Priester, and ended up needing to trade for a SP'er at the deadline, despite looking like we had 12-13 SP'ers, last winter, but how else to we get top quality players, if JH is not going to buy 3-4 of them via free agency? IMO, we need to strategically determine who we should keep and who we think are the valuable players we need to part with. We aren't getting quality players for DHam, Yoshida or Hicks, so we need to be serious. Our areas of strength and depth are the OF and pitching. With the DH position filled, 3 times over, using an OF'er to DH is not really an option, and the worst defender of our top 4 OF'er is Duran. I have to think his value as a LF'er on another team is way more than as a DH on the Sox- not to mention what do we do with Yoshida, Campbell, Romy and Ref, if he returns? We have to trade one from Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. With Jh Garcia, Campbell and emergency back-up Yoshida as depth, we can afford to lose one.

We aren't getting an ace or solid #2 SP'er for an OF'er by himself, so we have to add a pitcher or two, and that is more complex and scary, to me, than choosing which OF'er to trade. Much of the pitching values we have are on the potential/speculative side of evaluating their talent levels, or they are returning from injury or drop offs to end the 2025 season. Some saw their stock shoot up in Sept, like Early and Harrison. 

I can't say who are the right pitchers to trade, and I tend to think teams are willing to take 3 or 4 for one trades, like the Crochet deal, when most want 1 for 1 trades or 2 for 1 with non 40 man roster high prospects added on, if it is more than 1 for 1.

We know Crochet is the keeper, and it is likely Bello and Sandoval return as SP'ers expected to have an opening day rotation slot. Houck is out until 2027 (maybe Sept '26, but I'm not counting on that.) The leaves all these pitcher trade candidates.

29 Crawford

25 Dobbins (may start the year on the IL)

23 Harrison

25 Fitts (may be a pen arm in 2026)

23 Early

22 Tolle

22 Perales

23 Holobetz

22 Clarke

19 Valera

19 Fajardo

22 Aita

22 Monegro, 22 Tygart, Neely& McShane, 23 Ingrassia & 24 Wehunt, (would be throw-ins)

19 Cason (wont be traded)

18 Travieso (wont be traded)

17 Delzine (wont be traded)

Future dept (just drafted/wont be traded) Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Foutch, Morgan

Others:

Criswell & Winckowski (likely pen arms with minimal trade value, anyway.)

Sandlin, Paez & Mullins are Rule 5 guys that look like pen arms for 2016. (They may have some trade value.)

Uberstine, Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey are AAA depth arms not on the 40 man roster. (little trade value, if any.)

Pen arms that might be included in trades: Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell. I think we keep Murphy, Song & Moran as AAA pen depth.

That's a lot of arms to choose from, and I'm sure many GMs like many of them. How much do they like them? How much does Brez like them?

My guess is we see a Duran/Abreu, Fitts/Harrison & Sandlin/Mullins type trade.

[notin]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to know how TEX and AZ are looking at their budgets and near future chances, as well as some other teams. There may be a team out there I'm overlooking.

AZ already traded some of their better players and lose Gallen to free agency. TEX has to be dissapointed, and have to see an aging roster in front of them. I doubt they chose to open a window for a 1-2 year stretch: they may decide to retool, and we have a lot of young talent and high potential players.

I realize most of us overvalue our own players, but I also think we undervalue some players who don't have flashy numbers or just had a tough season. For example, I think many GMs would jump at the opportunity to get Rafaela and even Campbell. Both are not overpaid. Many view Abreu as a the dreaded "platoon guy," but every GM would love him on their roster and would pay a pretty high price to get him. I will agree that Casas has lost almost all his trade value, and that's why I'd keep him, but maybe some GMs would pay for him. Our younger pitchers have to be on many GMs minds. With the cost and risk associated with FA pitchers, I think every team is looking at trading for young and low-cost pitchers, even if some have only potential or speculative value.

I loved the strategy of loading up on depth, and the recent focus on pitching depth is one major reason we made the playoffs, this season, but with our window open wide, right now, I think the focus needs to be on higher quality, at the expense of extended, decent quantity. I see this for our line-up and am with Drew on the call for a couple big bats- minimum. I also see this with our rotation. We have a lot of solid #3-4 types or potential #2-4 types, but only Crochet looks to be a sure bet top 60 SP'er in 2026. I'd like to see us have 3 top 60 pitchers, or at least 2. Sure, Bello & Gio were top 60 in most relevant categories, and that is a big reason we did this well, but Gio is a goner, and Bello raised some questions to end the season.

I'm certainly not against the idea of having quality depth for our rotation. We need to keep some. We saw what happened when we traded Priester, and ended up needing to trade for a SP'er at the deadline, despite looking like we had 12-13 SP'ers, last winter, but how else to we get top quality players, if JH is not going to buy 3-4 of them via free agency? IMO, we need to strategically determine who we should keep and who we think are the valuable players we need to part with. We aren't getting quality players for DHam, Yoshida or Hicks, so we need to be serious. Our areas of strength and depth are the OF and pitching. With the DH position filled, 3 times over, using an OF'er to DH is not really an option, and the worst defender of our top 4 OF'er is Duran. I have to think his value as a LF'er on another team is way more than as a DH on the Sox- not to mention what do we do with Yoshida, Campbell, Romy and Ref, if he returns? We have to trade one from Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. With Jh Garcia, Campbell and emergency back-up Yoshida as depth, we can afford to lose one.

We aren't getting an ace or solid #2 SP'er for an OF'er by himself, so we have to add a pitcher or two, and that is more complex and scary, to me, than choosing which OF'er to trade. Much of the pitching values we have are on the potential/speculative side of evaluating their talent levels, or they are returning from injury or drop offs to end the 2025 season. Some saw their stock shoot up in Sept, like Early and Harrison. 

I can't say who are the right pitchers to trade, and I tend to think teams are willing to take 3 or 4 for one trades, like the Crochet deal, when most want 1 for 1 trades or 2 for 1 with non 40 man roster high prospects added on, if it is more than 1 for 1.

We know Crochet is the keeper, and it is likely Bello and Sandoval return as SP'ers expected to have an opening day rotation slot. Houck is out until 2027 (maybe Sept '26, but I'm not counting on that.) The leaves all these pitcher trade candidates.

29 Crawford

25 Dobbins (may start the year on the IL)

23 Harrison

25 Fitts (may be a pen arm in 2026)

23 Early

22 Tolle

22 Perales

23 Holobetz

22 Clarke

19 Valera

19 Fajardo

22 Aita

22 Monegro, 22 Tygart, Neely& McShane, 23 Ingrassia & 24 Wehunt, (would be throw-ins)

19 Cason (wont be traded)

18 Travieso (wont be traded)

17 Delzine (wont be traded)

Future dept (just drafted/wont be traded) Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Foutch, Morgan

Others:

Criswell & Winckowski (likely pen arms with minimal trade value, anyway.)

Sandlin, Paez & Mullins are Rule 5 guys that look like pen arms for 2016. (They may have some trade value.)

Uberstine, Drohan, Anderson, I Coffey are AAA depth arms not on the 40 man roster. (little trade value, if any.)

Pen arms that might be included in trades: Kelly, Guerrero, I Campbell. I think we keep Murphy, Song & Moran as AAA pen depth.

That's a lot of arms to choose from, and I'm sure many GMs like many of them. How much do they like them? How much does Brez like them?

My guess is we see a Duran/Abreu, Fitts/Harrison & Sandlin/Mullins type trade.

If teams avoid Abreu because he is the dreaded "platoon guy", what do these teams think about Kerry Carpenter?  He's like an older Abreu without the defense..

Also I'd be shocked if anyone took Paez.  A-ball pitchers rarely get selected, and I think fans get more excited about the Rule 5 draft than CBOs do.

If anyone wants Uberstine or Mullens, have at it.   The real question for the Sox - do you protect Noah Song?

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Also I'd be shocked if anyone took Paez.  A-ball pitchers rarely get selected, and I think fans get more excited about the Rule 5 draft than CBOs do.

If anyone wants Uberstine or Mullens, have at it.   The real question for the Sox - do you protect Noah Song?

I think Paez and Mullins are nice throw-ins, because they won't get selected for Rule 5. If there is doubt, we can wait until after the draft to trade them. I think teams want them, but not on their 40. Sandlin would likely be drafted, but teams might want him on their 40 (not all teams.)

Uberstine looks like decent AAA depth that does not start the season on the 40.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com lists the top 3B FA options:

1. Bregman

2. E Suarez

3. Moncada

4. Murakami (26 y/0 Homers once every 10 PAs)

5. Okamoto

W Castro, Kiner-Falefa, Rengifo & A Rosario