Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[FredLynn]

On 2/12/2026 at 6:44 PM, UtahSox said:

PECOTA 82.2 wins…… yikes could be 4th place in AL East. Not in the playoffs BTW behind Orioles,Astros, Tigers, Bluejays, and Rangers in Wildcard.

Sounds about right

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Sounds about right

Another pivot?

Downwards, of course.

[FredLynn]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Another pivot?

Downwards, of course.

4th place and no playoffs is spot on. It’s what I have been writing all along. Pecota is a few games off in the win column though. 
Watch and weep….

[UtahSox]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Another pivot?

Downwards, of course.

 

[UtahSox]

13 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Sounds about right

For clarity I don’t agree with PECOTA… but if we do only win 82 games we won’t be in playoffs. 

[FredLynn]

39 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

For clarity I don’t agree with PECOTA… but if we do only win 82 games we won’t be in playoffs. 

I am predicting 88-90 wins, no playoffs. Now lets watch the games prove me right.

[UtahSox]

Just now, FredLynn said:

I am predicting 88-90 wins, no playoffs. Now lets watch the games prove me right.

Historically bold…… I’d take 89 wins splitting the vig, and I think we’d be back in the postseason. 

[mvp 78]

Over the previous 25 years, there is only one season where a 90 win team would have been shut out from the current 12 team playoff format: the 2021 Seattle Mariners. Every other team that won 90 games that year would have been in the playoffs.

Rays - 100 wins AL East

ChiSox - 93 wins AL Central

Astros - 95 wins AL West

Sox - 92 wins WC1

Yanks - 91 wins WC2

Jays - 91 wins WC3

Mariners - 90 wins

[FredLynn]

29 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Historically bold…… I’d take 89 wins splitting the vig, and I think we’d be back in the postseason. 

I realize its a possibility, though I don't think it will happen. Regardless, just getting into the playoffs and getting bounced in round 1 like last year isn't good enough because management had the means to get us the talent to do much better. I am not willing to settle for mediocrity again.

[moonslav59]

The Jays lost a pitcher (Bassitt) who gave them 170+ IP for 3 straight years. While a 3.89 ERA and 109 ERA+ are not earth-shattering, it's a significant loss. He turns 37, soon, so the choice to let him go is probably a good one, but they still needed to replace the loss.

They signed Cease and Ponce, who should do better than Bassitt's numbers would have been, but will they improve on the numbers they lost? Cease had a 94 ERA+ in '25, 105 in his past 2 seasons and a 102 ERA+ over the last 3 seasons. That's not really close to Basstitt's 109.

A lot of baseball people like Ponce, but he has a 75 ERA in his two seasons in MLB. Tyler Rogers was a real nice get for the pen. He's 35 but has shown no signs of decline.

They basically replaced Bichette with Okamoto. Who would you think is more likely to have a real good 2026 season?

Why don't posters doubt these moves like they doubt the moves made by Brez?

[JoeBrady]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why don't posters doubt these moves like they doubt the moves made by Brez?

I find Americans in general have a POV and have no interest in challenging it.  A couple of other items.

• Who is their closer?  Some of Hoffman's numbers were prtty ugly, and Rogers has very little closing experience.
• They have only one player with more than 23 HRs and he is 36 (for those that consider HRs a difference-maker).
• Gimenez has a good glove, but has never played SS fulltime.  26 GS in the past 4 years.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Jays lost a pitcher (Bassitt) who gave them 170+ IP for 3 straight years. While a 3.89 ERA and 109 ERA+ are not earth-shattering, it's a significant loss. He turns 37, soon, so the choice to let him go is probably a good one, but they still needed to replace the loss.

They signed Cease and Ponce, who should do better than Bassitt's numbers would have been, but will they improve on the numbers they lost? Cease had a 94 ERA+ in '25, 105 in his past 2 seasons and a 102 ERA+ over the last 3 seasons. That's not really close to Basstitt's 109.

A lot of baseball people like Ponce, but he has a 75 ERA in his two seasons in MLB. Tyler Rogers was a real nice get for the pen. He's 35 but has shown no signs of decline.

They basically replaced Bichette with Okamoto. Who would you think is more likely to have a real good 2026 season?

Why don't posters doubt these moves like they doubt the moves made by Brez?

I don't like Cease. Okamoto is a big question mark. Springer is going to take a huge step back this year. I don't see the Jays winning the division this year. Would I be shocked if they missed the playoffs? No. 

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't like Cease. Okamoto is a big question mark. Springer is going to take a huge step back this year. I don't see the Jays winning the division this year. Would I be shocked if they missed the playoffs? No. 

I think if people looked at other teams' winter moves and underlying numbers, they might not think we did all that badly, this winter.

Even if you think we got slightly worse than 2025, who got better, besides the O's, who have 14 games to make up to catch us. Is Alonso a 14 WAR players?

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think if people looked at other teams' winter moves and underlying numbers, they might not think we did all that badly, this winter.

Even if you think we got slightly worse than 2025, who got better, besides the O's, who have 14 games to make up to catch us. Is Alonso a 14 WAR players?

I think there is some positive regression for the O's. Alonso and the new players probably don't have to make up a full 14 games, Are they already closer to the 91 win '24 squad? IDK.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think there is some positive regression for the O's. Alonso and the new players probably don't have to make up a full 14 games, Are they already closer to the 91 win '24 squad? IDK.

I agree, but I agree less after the Jackson Holliday injury because he was one of the guys who had a good bounce back chance after a decent but disappointing (vs expectations) rookie season.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, but I agree less after the Jackson Holliday injury because he was one of the guys who had a good bounce back chance after a decent but disappointing (vs expectations) rookie season.

He's never bounced to begin with IMO. I think Cowser, Henderson and Rutschman are more important to the team.  

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think if people looked at other teams' winter moves and underlying numbers, they might not think we did all that badly, this winter.

Even if you think we got slightly worse than 2025, who got better, besides the O's, who have 14 games to make up to catch us. Is Alonso a 14 WAR players?

In a vacuum no….. but admittedly, I think the Orioles roster under performed last year based on talent. So you can’t claim all this growth it’s gonna come for the Red Sox from young players within, and then not allow the same for the Orioles. Also sneaky move no one is talking about Orioles added Ward that’s (2) right handed bats both over 100 RBIs and 35 home runs last year. And they brought in their fence. 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think there is some positive regression for the O's. Alonso and the new players probably don't have to make up a full 14 games, Are they already closer to the 91 win '24 squad? IDK.

Agreed. They had a pretty nice looking young team last spring, and it seems like many underperformed, while management sat on their hands. It looks like they chose well to let Santander walk, last winter, and they did more than just add Alonso, this winter, but they also lost a couple good players, too.

I do think they can make up 10-15 games, but I think the Sox improve by 4-6 games, so it won't be enough.

I think the Jays will get worse, and the Yanks stay about the same, but the Yanks will rely on good health for 2-3 players with very little hope if 1 or 2 miss a bunch of time. Of course, what are the Sox chances without Crochet, Suarez or Anthony staying healthy?

[moonslav59]

Looking at the Sox schedule, we don't really end the season with any extremely difficult opponents, but not really easy teams, either.

Here is the end of the season in reverse:

vs 3CHC & 3CLE

@3TBR & 3TEX

vs 3KCR & 3LAA

@4 BAL

vs 3 SEA

end of AUG: 3 @ NYY & 3 @ MIA

We begin the season at CIN MAR 26, 28th & 29th and 3 @ HOU, then we come home to play SDP & MIL for 3 each.

 

[notin]

On 2/19/2026 at 9:35 AM, UtahSox said:

For clarity I don’t agree with PECOTA… but if we do only win 82 games we won’t be in playoffs. 

Doesn’t PECOTA make projections by comparing players stats at similar ages and assume they will match up at later ages?  So for, say Wilyer Abreu’s age 25 was similar to former journeyman Jon Nunnally, the PECOTA system assumes their age 26 season’s will align as well.

i know every projection system has flaws (except the remarkably accurate WAPM) and anything designed to predict the future is going to be wrong at times,, but the PECOTA system just feels lazy…

[Michigan Adam2]

93 wins and 1st in al east. Pitching and defense wins championships, and Sox have them. They go get a big hitter before deadline. Obviously they have very few injuries to achieve this. 

[moonslav59]

I may adjust by the stat of the season, but as of now, I see this...

91 NYY

90 BOS

87 TOR

86 BAL

92 SEA, 87 DET, 85 CLE, 84 HOU, 81 TEX

[drewski6]

21 hours ago, notin said:

Doesn’t PECOTA make projections by comparing players stats at similar ages and assume they will match up at later ages?  So for, say Wilyer Abreu’s age 25 was similar to former journeyman Jon Nunnally, the PECOTA system assumes their age 26 season’s will align as well.

i know every projection system has flaws (except the remarkably accurate WAPM) and anything designed to predict the future is going to be wrong at times,, but the PECOTA system just feels lazy…

It seems almost dismissible.  

[notin]

On 2/20/2026 at 7:55 AM, mvp 78 said:

I don't like Cease. Okamoto is a big question mark. Springer is going to take a huge step back this year. I don't see the Jays winning the division this year. Would I be shocked if they missed the playoffs? No. 

I think the Jays are more likely to miss the playoffs than the Yankees, but for some reason both Fangraphs and Baseball Digest predict the Yankees don’t get in.

My first thought was “maybe Baseball Digest’s primary source was Fangraphs.  But no way. Fangraphs tries to be cutting edge statistical analysis, and Baseball Digest is probably the most Old School of all mainstream baseball sources.  They only recently embraced OPS. 
 

So that these two sources both  independently came to that same conclusion both baffles and excites me…

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

I think the Jays are more likely to miss the playoffs than the Yankees, but for some reason both Fangraphs and Baseball Digest predict the Yankees don’t get in.

My first thought was “maybe Baseball Digest’s primary source was Fangraphs.  But no way. Fangraphs tries to be cutting edge statistical analysis, and Baseball Digest is probably the most Old School of all mainstream baseball sources.  They only recently embraced OPS. 
 

So that these two sources both  independently came to that same conclusion both baffles and excites me…

Maybe WAPM lacks in age regression calculations.

[notin]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe WAPM lacks in age regression calculations.

Actually WAPM proved more accurate than time travel for short term predictions, all within one season.  But wasn’t so good at spanning the years.

If it was, I’d have published those tactics or sold my services around MLB by now…

[moonslav59]

It should be noted, I've spoken of Yankee age-related regressions for a few years, and it hasn't happened, except that one year. That '23 season saw 37 yr old Donaldson hit .659, 34 yr old LeMahieu .718, 33 yr olds Stanton, Rizzo & Hicks all hit  under .706

I'm sticking to it. tough.

NYY Wins in last 5 seasons:

92>99>82>94>94

They've made the playoffs in 8 of 9 seasons and 9 of 11.

[moonslav59]

ATL extends "freakin'" Chris Sale to $27M/1 with a $30M club option for 2028.

Sale turns 37 next month.

Cubs to sign Conforto to $2M/1.

Gio & Littell remain FAs.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

ATL extends "freakin'" Chris Sale to $27M/1 with a $30M club option for 2028.

Sale turns 37 next month.

Cubs to sign Conforto to $2M/1.

Gio & Littell remain FAs.

Is Giolito asking for the world plus the next one or something?  There’s no reason for him to be still unsigned…

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Is Giolito asking for the world plus the next one or something?  There’s no reason for him to be still unsigned…

He was hurt at the end of the season last year and didn't go in the playoffs. Maybe there is a lingering issue?