Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, with little doubt in my mind, you should be ranked where your revenue is.

But that said, your level of talent impacts your salary, and vice versa.  Our record was 'okay' from 2020-2024, but we were only fringe contenders.  Signing phat long-term contracts was probably not in our best interests.

Of more concern, imho, is the structure.

• While I like Bregman, we gave up 2 draft picks & int'l money to get him.  For a l/t contract, that's acceptable.  For one year, plus his options, it is too much.
• IMHO, I see no problem with l/t alternating between being under the cap, and then exceeding the 2nd level.  That minimizes JH's tax burden, and helps us control the CBT penalties.  Where I do have a problem is when we exceed the first cap by $5M.  IMO, you're either in or your out.  If we go to $244.01, then we should go to $263.9.

It was weird to bring Breggie on for only a year with the QO issue and cause the friction with Devers. Even if they end up re-signing him now, the move was a little questionable. An opt out after one year, how did that help the Sox? And now they are willing to move the goal posts and give him a longer term contract? Why? 

On your last point, going over the CBT in '22 was Bloom's biggest sin. He barely went over and had nothing to show for it. Absolutely brutal. 

[UtahSox]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They couldn't get anyone to sign on last time. Breslow was the only guy who would take the job. If they fired him at any point in the next few years, Henry would find it even harder to fill the role. Whoever they got would have even less FO experience than Breslow had. 

What’s crazy is we also have this really good manager, who by almost all accounts is very well respected by players/ FO people in this league. How long till he gets an offer to fix the Mets, take the Phillies over the others top etc. and he takes it?
Look at this offseason, Instead of coming out of pocket and signing Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, served up on a platter..,.. we’ve lost countless prospects, trying to mix and match our way to a championship Dynasty team. That’s just not how they’re usually built.

On a separate note, I’ve been gone for the last week. Have we confirmed that Alex Bregman has a five or six year deal on the table?

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They couldn't get anyone to sign on last time. Breslow was the only guy who would take the job. If they fired him at any point in the next few years, Henry would find it even harder to fill the role. Whoever they got would have even less FO experience than Breslow had. 

As I said many times before Brez was the 12th pick in the HOBO draft.

[FredLynn]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

FSG, which is owned 40% (!!!) by John Henry. Werner is the second largest shareholder. Combined, they are well above 50% and can do whatever they want with FSG. 

So basically Henry is the principal owner. If he and Werner decided to open up the purse and spend what it takes to compete for a ring they are fully capable of doing so. 

But its not happening.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

So basically Henry is the principal owner. If he and Werner decided to open up the purse and spend what it takes to compete for a ring they are fully capable of doing so. 

But its not happening.

Werner’s throttle got stuck.

[FredLynn]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They couldn't get anyone to sign on last time. Breslow was the only guy who would take the job. If they fired him at any point in the next few years, Henry would find it even harder to fill the role. Whoever they got would have even less FO experience than Breslow had. 

Likely they couldn't get anyone to do the job because they weren't offering enough money. It usually comes down to that.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It was weird to bring Breggie on for only a year with the QO issue and cause the friction with Devers. Even if they end up re-signing him now, the move was a little questionable. An opt out after one year, how did that help the Sox? And now they are willing to move the goal posts and give him a longer term contract? Why? 

On your last point, going over the CBT in '22 was Bloom's biggest sin. He barely went over and had nothing to show for it. Absolutely brutal. 

Agree 100% on Breggie. Breggie has been the chosen one if the contract offer out there is true.

[UtahSox]

7 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

So basically Henry is the principal owner. If he and Werner decided to open up the purse and spend what it takes to compete for a ring they are fully capable of doing so. 

But its not happening.

They could have bylaws that they have to uphold? Payroll being a max certain % of Revenue etc etc. we don’t know what we don’t know. Minority owners can sometimes dictate limited Amount of control/ checks and balances. 
 

what’s interesting to me, is John Henry has enough money to last him several lifetimes, even with the private jet, private yacht, etc. To me it seems like it would be more about his legacy. We know baseball is his biggest passion, outside of music?? He named his entire sports group after the baseball team he owns. It’s strange to me that he doesn’t want to win more with his crown jewel. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

They could have bylaws that they have to uphold? Payroll being a max certain % of Revenue etc etc. we don’t know what we don’t know. Minority owners can sometimes dictate limited Amount of control/ checks and balances. 
 

what’s interesting to me, is John Henry has enough money to last him several lifetimes, even with the private jet, private yacht, etc. To me it seems like it would be more about his legacy. We know baseball is his biggest passion, outside of music?? He named his entire sports group after the baseball team he owns. It’s strange to me that he doesn’t want to win more with his crown jewel. 

By laws of FSG? I'm not so sure since Liverpool is currently 3rd in EPL and has a payroll higher than it has ever been. 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

By laws of FSG? I'm not so sure since Liverpool is currently 3rd in EPL and has a payroll higher than it has ever been. 

That sucks…. Wish our beloved had its highest payroll ever. 

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

2025 7th (CBT)

2025 12th (Year End 40 Man)

That #12 is on a cash basis, which holds -0- relevance.  All that counts is that we were #7 in spending.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Instead of signing a FA, they are trading away a substantial part of their farm (not sustainable). 

I'm not sure what the guys we traded this year has to do with sustainability.  For the most part, they aren't big pieces, nor are they good fitts.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

Out on the street, airways, and media it’s not the 4 WS that the Red Sox have won under JH, but the losing-last place teams especially since 2013 that gets talked about more justified, or not.

I thought you were one of the 'Flags fly forever' brigade.  Must be some other Fred.

[drewski6]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That #12 is on a cash basis, which holds -0- relevance.  All that counts is that we were #7 in spending.

Of course the cash is relevant.  For example, the red sox are paying roman 7m this year, but crediting themselves 18m because they bought future years of his at a discount, and the averaging of the yearly for CBT calculation purposes makes them look more spendy than they are.

There are ways to more out of the CBT.  Not all luxury tax bills at a given amount are created equal.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They couldn't get anyone to sign on last time. Breslow was the only guy who would take the job. If they fired him at any point in the next few years, Henry would find it even harder to fill the role. Whoever they got would have even less FO experience than Breslow had. 

Not to mention that Breslow would get hired before the day was out.

[Larry Cook]

I wonder if we can get the Bregman signing done this week, because it appears the Phillies and Mets are in on bichete now!!!! 

[drewski6]

Would you rather: Roman Anthony make 7m this year and count 18m towards the luxury tax. Or Roman Anthony make 7m this year and count 7m towards the luxury tax (giving us another 11m to spend)

Now I understand that this overlooks the future savings that we hope to receive from locking up RA. I get that by increasing Romans 7m tax hit to 18m, we get him 6,7,8 years down the road at a more affordable price.  But really , its moving money around.  They bought a future discount on Roman. They didnt buy Roman.

And they could have kept Roman cheap, and used that money to go get more players and had a better team in the short term. Not to say that I dont agree with locking him up, but what I am saying is that only looking at the tax completely ignores this kind of thing.  THey increased RA's tax hit  in 2026, 2027, 2028 (by a lot) to lessen his tax hit 2031,2032,2033.  I dont think they should get full credit for this "spending" and only looking at CBT ignores that this purchase was really jsut buying furute discounts.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not to mention that Breslow would get hired before the day was out.

I dont think so, at least not at same level. Not saying he couldnt get another job as CBO somewhere, but its not a guarantee it would be immediate or happen at all.

I think if we sacked him, hed def get offers as a GM somewhere but thats a lower position than he has now

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That #12 is on a cash basis, which holds -0- relevance.  All that counts is that we were #7 in spending.

That's not true either. The CBT isn't about spending, it's about AAV. Spending IS cash. AAV has little to do with actual spending.

For example:

Bregman: paid 20M in '25, 31.6M tax hit

Bello: paid 2.5M in '25, 9.2M tax hit

Rafaela: paid 1M, 6.2M tax hit

Pedroia: paid 2.5M, 0 tax hit

Manny: paid 2M, 0 tax hit

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Would you rather: Roman Anthony make 7m this year and count 18m towards the luxury tax. Or Roman Anthony make 7m this year and count 7m towards the luxury tax (giving us another 11m to spend)

Now I understand that this overlooks the future savings that we hope to receive from locking up RA. I get that by increasing Romans 7m tax hit to 18m, we get him 6,7,8 years down the road at a more affordable price.  But really , its moving money around.  They bought a future discount on Roman. They didnt buy Roman.

And they could have kept Roman cheap, and used that money to go get more players and had a better team in the short term. Not to say that I dont agree with locking him up, but what I am saying is that only looking at the tax completely ignores this kind of thing.  THey increased RA's tax hit  in 2026, 2027, 2028 (by a lot) to lessen his tax hit 2031,2032,2033.  I dont think they should get full credit for this "spending" and only looking at CBT ignores that this purchase was really jsut buying furute discounts.

We are ONLY looking at CBT because it's a CBT threshold that is where an arbitrary budget line in the sand has been made.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think so, at least not at same level. Not saying he couldnt get another job as CBO somewhere, but its not a guarantee it would be immediate or happen at all.

I think if we sacked him, hed def get offers as a GM somewhere but thats a lower position than he has now

With how he remade the pitching dev here, a few of the smaller orgs would dump their CBO's/GM's to sign him to a POBO/CBO position for their org. 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's not true either. The CBT isn't about spending, it's about AAV. Spending IS cash. AAV has little to do with actual spending.

For example:

Bregman: paid 20M in '25, 31.6M tax hit

Bello: paid 2.5M in '25, 9.2M tax hit

Rafaela: paid 1M, 6.2M tax hit

Pedroia: paid 2.5M, 0 tax hit

Manny: paid 2M, 0 tax hit

agree both numbers are relevant.

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not all luxury tax bills at a given amount are created equal.

But that's the way the tax is calculated.  Otherwise, there is no reason to even reference the $244M cap.  It's like judging the Ohtani signing based on his $2M cash outlay instead of his $46M CBT hit.

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

With how he remade the pitching dev here, a few of the smaller orgs would dump their CBO's/GM's to sign him to a POBO/CBO position for their org. 

With how he remade the pitching dev here, a few of the smaller orgs would dump hot-seat their CBO's/GM's to sign interview him to a POBO/CBO position for their org. 

And then breslow would blow it, cuz he doesnt interview well

If I walk in to interview you and you are sitting their defiantly and smugly , I already have my answer. Cuz chances are you are compensating for a lack of skills/experience with bravado, and ive seen that movie too many times to get fooled by it again.

When interviewees are over the top confident, its a red flag.  If you wanna win a job that you are a bit long shot for, you do it with asking the right questions at the end, not by pounding your chest and talking about your past accomplishments

Its all about vision anyways.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

agree both numbers are relevant.

And we don't really know how relevant each are to JH. Maybe the cash spend is hugely important and maybe not. Maybe the CBT is ultimately the most important nut the Sox are trying to crack right now. My only real point was that the CBT wasn't true "spending." The true "spending" was the cash coming out. The CBT calculation is just made up nonsense MLB negotiated with the union. It's ultimately meaningless and can be changed next season. It's not real. It's just there to presumably for competitive balance, but the Dodgers are in the playoffs year in and a year out no matter what. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

But that's the way the tax is calculated.  Otherwise, there is no reason to even reference the $244M cap.  It's like judging the Ohtani signing based on his $2M cash outlay instead of his $46M CBT hit.

I didnt say the CBT is irrelevant, im just saying that looking at the cash outlay alongside it provides context.

Correct, Ohtanis 2m cash outlay is very relevant, and its as relevant as the 46m CBT hit (which is also relevant)

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

And we don't really know how relevant each are to JH. Maybe the cash spend is hugely important and maybe not. Maybe the CBT is ultimately the most important nut the Sox are trying to crack right now. My only real point was that the CBT wasn't true "spending." The true "spending" was the cash coming out. The CBT calculation is just made up nonsense MLB negotiated with the union. It's ultimately meaningless and can be changed next season. It's not real. It's just there to presumably for competitive balance, but the Dodgers are in the playoffs year in and a year out no matter what. 

I agree.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

But that's the way the tax is calculated.  Otherwise, there is no reason to even reference the $244M cap.  It's like judging the Ohtani signing based on his $2M cash outlay instead of his $46M CBT hit.

But you can't truly say the Sox spent the 7th most in MLB. A lot of it is made up of contracts that have yet to mature (Bello, Anthony) and the Sox have shown that they may just trade those players rather than ultimately pay them. They have signed them to contracts, but they have not paid them in full. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

They could have bylaws that they have to uphold? 

what’s interesting to me, is John Henry has enough money to last him several lifetimes, even with the private jet, private yacht, etc. To me it seems like it would be more about his legacy.

IMHO, these things are far more complex than the civilians seem to realize.  If you own 100% of everything, then everything is easy.  Past that, you have partners you have to be accountable to.

IRT his legacy, it's already logged in.  Some fans will always hate him.  Most fans will remember the 4 WSCs.

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I wonder if we can get the Bregman signing done this week, because it appears the Phillies and Mets are in on bichete now!!!! 

I'd bet against both teams.  Both have a SS and a 2B, and other needs to spend money on.  Probably agent disinformation.