Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

I hardly feel sorry for billionaires, but have you considered EBITDA? 

The baseball revenue that is included in the 574M (or whatever) is just BASEBALL related. It doesn't include all the tangential real estate revenue surrounding the ballpark or anything related to NESN. They are rolling in it. The Sox having the 3rd most revenue every year, but continuously spending outside the top 10 is embarrassing. 

[Hitch]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I hardly feel sorry for billionaires, but have you considered EBITDA? 

The baseball revenue that is included in the 574M (or whatever) is just BASEBALL related. It doesn't include all the tangential real estate revenue surrounding the ballpark or anything related to NESN. They are rolling in it. The Sox having the 3rd most revenue every year, but continuously spending outside the top 10 is embarrassing. 

Of course, and doesn't include property tax, charity donations and local infrastructure investment and a myriad of other things. The point of the post is not to point out that they are paupers, though they are only very wealthy through assets not cash, but to point out it is hypocritical not to expect these guys to make money on their investment, and more importantly that they have other restraints at least 3 other organisations do not, and that sensible running of the organisation is far superior to the running of it based off often rabid and hysterical fandom demands. 

None of that is to say that fans shouldn't expect a certain level of investment and while being outside the top 10 the past few years (which I have offered context for continually around this discussion, which I'd argue at the very least is plausible) is not a good look, under this ownership they have rarely been outside the top 3 in 25 years. 

If they continue to be outside the top 10, or even top 5, questions should rightly be asked. I prefer to see the context and overall picture of 25 years and believe they will continue spending, than just assume they are now cheap and don't want to invest.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I hardly feel sorry for billionaires

Welcome to the Billionaires Bootlicking Club (BBC).  Your membership entitles you to a discount on your next yacht.

I think too many people think of sports teams as a public interest.  There is a better term for it which isn't coming to me.  But they feel there is an obligation on behalf of the owner to reach into his personal wealth to give fans a better team.  I think JH is a fair target at this point, but fans are constantly talking about how rich some owners are, and expect huge payrolls, even though attendance is often quite poor.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

Welcome to the Billionaires Bootlicking Club (BBC).  Your membership entitles you to a discount on your next yacht.

I think too many people think of sports teams as a public interest.  There is a better term for it which isn't coming to me.  But they feel there is an obligation on behalf of the owner to reach into his personal wealth to give fans a better team.  I think JH is a fair target at this point, but fans are constantly talking about how rich some owners are, and expect huge payrolls, even though attendance is often quite poor.

I included a point about this in my original post, but it was convoluted and I couldn't find a way I was happy with phrasing it to get my point across so I deleted it.

But yes, there is an expectancy from fans that people should just fund their dreams and hopes through their sports team. Not the way the world works unfortunately. 

But again, that said, an expected level on investment in regards to income is not unreasonable and there are some terrible owners out there. But where that line is can be harder to judge, and fans are not known for their reasonable natures.

[JoeBrady]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I hardly feel sorry for billionaires, but have you considered EBITDA? 

The baseball revenue that is included in the 574M (or whatever) is just BASEBALL related. It doesn't include all the tangential real estate revenue surrounding the ballpark or anything related to NESN. They are rolling in it. The Sox having the 3rd most revenue every year, but continuously spending outside the top 10 is embarrassing. 

I agree that our spending should be commensurate with our revenue.

But real estate revenue is just a return on a new investment.  Just like the rest of us billionaires, there is no guarantee on a return.  I have no sympathy for the cable companies that took a bath on broadcasting deals, so I have no problem with the companies that made money..

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, Hitch said:

fans are not known for their reasonable natures.

I'm willing to bet that fans of 29 teams don't feel that their owners are spending enough,  And if the LAD somehow miss the playoffs, I'm willing to bet that some of their fans will accuse them of being cheap.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Of course, and doesn't include property tax, charity donations and local infrastructure investment and a myriad of other things. The point of the post is not to point out that they are paupers, though they are only very wealthy through assets not cash, but to point out it is hypocritical not to expect these guys to make money on their investment, and more importantly that they have other restraints at least 3 other organisations do not, and that sensible running of the organisation is far superior to the running of it based off often rabid and hysterical fandom demands. 

None of that is to say that fans shouldn't expect a certain level of investment and while being outside the top 10 the past few years (which I have offered context for continually around this discussion, which I'd argue at the very least is plausible) is not a good look, under this ownership they have rarely been outside the top 3 in 25 years. 

If they continue to be outside the top 10, or even top 5, questions should rightly be asked. I prefer to see the context and overall picture of 25 years and believe they will continue spending, than just assume they are now cheap and don't want to invest.

It would include charity donations. It's still an expense and isn't interest/taxes/depreciation/amortization. I mean, are you worried about their actual tax return now? They still make a f-ton on their investment and always have. They are just choosing to spend less than ever (comparatively) while making more than ever as fans are spending more than ever. They also didn't win any of those 4 WS titles while being outside the top 10 in salary. Limiting their spending artificially is just bad on-field business TBH. If they don't want to win, that's fine. Just don't point at those 4 flags and say "well they know how to do that so let's trust them to keep doing that." They got those rings by spending!

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I included a point about this in my original post, but it was convoluted and I couldn't find a way I was happy with phrasing it to get my point across so I deleted it.

But yes, there is an expectancy from fans that people should just fund their dreams and hopes through their sports team. Not the way the world works unfortunately. 

But again, that said, an expected level on investment in regards to income is not unreasonable and there are some terrible owners out there. But where that line is can be harder to judge, and fans are not known for their reasonable natures.

They went from being great owners to mediocre ones. Yay...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Most adult fans are aware their favorite sports teams are owned and run by business men trying to turn profits.

But all fans know it costs them (or their parents) good money to watch and support those clubs.

Reasonable fans don't demand a World Series every year -- just give us entertainment worthy of our hard-earned investments... and show thanks by continuing to invest in us.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

It would include charity donations. It's still an expense and isn't interest/taxes/depreciation/amortization. I mean, are you worried about their actual tax return now? They still make a f-ton on their investment and always have. They are just choosing to spend less than ever (comparatively) while making more than ever as fans are spending more than ever. They also didn't win any of those 4 WS titles while being outside the top 10 in salary. Limiting their spending artificially is just bad on-field business TBH. If they don't want to win, that's fine. Just don't point at those 4 flags and say "well they know how to do that so let's trust them to keep doing that." They got those rings by spending!

The charity donations comment (as with local infrastructure investment) was a comment on none of us really knowing their overall wealth and what they're spending (outside of the RS) seeing as it was (and continues to be) brought up. Regardless it is a non point in relation to what was I think a pretty comprehensive post on their ownership and our position.  You seem to have little desire to engage with the other points I made and instead seem absolutely determined to believe/have made your mind up that (very recent) history means nothing and that they are just cheap and bad owners now. That's your prerogative of course and you're certainly not alone. 

I think you're all wrong, whilst understanding that it may be me that is so.

With that I wish you all a Happy New Year folks. I am going to go and get merry one last time in '25. I look forward to wasting hours and days of my life with you all again next year. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Most adult fans are aware their favorite sports teams are owned and run by business men trying to turn profits.

But all fans know it costs them (or their parents) good money to watch and support those clubs.

Reasonable fans don't demand a World Series every year -- just give us entertainment worthy of our hard-earned investments... and show thanks by continuing to invest in us.

And '22-'24 didn't really feel like an investment. '25 felt like a step in the right direction, but trading away the franchise player (and largest contract) certainly gives me pause. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And '22-'24 didn't really feel like an investment. '25 felt like a step in the right direction, but trading away the franchise player (and largest contract) certainly gives me pause. 

You're just a man seeking repurpose.

[moonslav59]

Couldn't have said it better Hitch. 

You mentioned top 5 and there does seem to be a drop off after #5 and 6.

Spotrac had the tax payroll for 2025 at...

417 LAD, 346 NYM, 319 NYY, 314 PHI

286 TOR, 270 SDP

249 BOS, 246 HOU, 241 TEX

To get to #6 would mean spending just $21M more. To #5 would take $37M more.

They have us currently 8th for 2026:

342 LAD, 303 NYM, 301 PHI

281 TOR, 280 NYY

255 SDP, 250 ATL

234 BOS

217 HOU

We are $46M from #5, something we will not do, but we are just $21M from #6, and we could do that and stay below the second line- assuming the Padres don't spend more, too.

Top 6 or 7 should be a reasonable assumption. Higher is asking JH to do as you pointed out, something he may not want to or is set up to do.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And '22-'24 didn't really feel like an investment. '25 felt like a step in the right direction, but trading away the franchise player (and largest contract) certainly gives me pause. 

Exactly, after taking one step back for 4-5 years in a row, we took 3 steps up, then one step back with Devers, and are now looking at another step back, if we don't replace Bregman, in kind.

Call Gray and Oviedo even with Giolito, Dobbins, Fitts & Buehler.

Call Contreras a plus over the Lowe & Ref losses, but I'm not sure we can say it's a full step up.

IMO, we need one more big step add to just keep us even with 2025. There is hope we can do better, because most of our team is on the upswing towards their primes, so we can hope for improvement, but in terms of replacing what we lost, we are one big step behind the start of 2025. (One can argue, by counting all the previous step backwards before 2025, we are still a couple steps behind the DD era, but one big step gets us to a pretty decent competitive level. IMO.)

Donovan would be a nice add, but I'm not sure he's enough.

Donovan + Vientos, without losing Duran or creating another hole? Hmmm.....

What would you say is the minimum player added to get us to even with the losses of Devers, Bregman, Gio, Wilson, Ref, Dobbins, Fitts and others?

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And '22-'24 didn't really feel like an investment. '25 felt like a step in the right direction, but trading away the franchise player (and largest contract) certainly gives me pause. 

We had just extended Devers to a contract almost 50% higher than the Price record total money deal.

We had just paid Buehler the highest AAV given to a SP'er since the Sale extension. It was more than Kluber + Richards.)

We had just paid Bregman a $40M AAV, which was 30% more than the Devers record AAV deal.

We also signed Chapman and furthered the extensions to younger players- this time Anthony & Campbell- this after seeing recent extensions to Bello & Rafaela.

We pulled off the biggest blockbuster trade since Sale, and followed that up with a very significant extension that saw more total money going to a pitcher than anyone else since Sale. Hell, the total Crochet money handed out was more than Perez, Richards, Kluber, Paxton, Wacha, Hill, Giolito, Sandoval & Buehler combined.

These have all been marked changes in the trend, but so much was undone with the Devers dump and now staring at losing Bregman, Lowe and Ref and hoping Contreras can make up for that, too.

[mvp 78]

If the team is in the playoffs almost every season going forward, I'm not going to complain what the payroll is. I don't think they have to replace every player that walks out that door. Right now, the holes are 2b and 3b. One of those positions will be filled by Mayer. If the other is filled by Bregman, fine. If it's filled by Donovan, I'm not sure it's enough of a replacement over the short term TBH. 

I try not to be too hung up about it, but it's hard to say "look at the 4 championships" when they've clearly changed their spending habits since then (and have done lots of psychic damage to the fanbase by trading and letting go of franchise players). 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the team is in the playoffs almost every season going forward, I'm not going to complain what the payroll is. I don't think they have to replace every player that walks out that door. Right now, the holes are 2b and 3b. One of those positions will be filled by Mayer. If the other is filled by Bregman, fine. If it's filled by Donovan, I'm not sure it's enough of a replacement over the short term TBH. 

I try not to be too hung up about it, but it's hard to say "look at the 4 championships" when they've clearly changed their spending habits since then (and have done lots of psychic damage to the fanbase by trading and letting go of franchise players). 

Indeed. Much repairing the damage done is needed.

It felt like a significant step was made last winter, and to a lesser extent with the Devers, Bello and Rafaela extensions the year before, but we are once again faced with the same ole-same ole, this winter.

All the doubts, worries and frustrations are back front and center.

I agree on the making the playoffs comment, but for 2026, I don't see it happening, unless we spend more or make a trade that sacrifices strength at other positions or weakens the farm further.

I like our farm and it's focus on pitching.

I like our young core of players under team control for many years.

I like our mix of vets but think we need at least one more major and dependable addition for 2B or 3B. Another pitcher or 3B/2Bman would be nice, but I'm not for trading away the future to get the second guy, and I doubt JH allows Brez to spend enough to do that.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I like our young core of players under team control for many years.

 

Premium - anthony, Mayer, abreau, refaela, Duran 

quality and could be more with a decent backup - narveaz, 

could be quality but more at bats needed - Casas, Campbell 

very few teams can match this level of young position 

[moonslav59]

The Angels finally rid themselves of Rendon by restructuring his remaining money owed, but are showing interest in Arenado?

Is there a worse management group in all of sports?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Premium - anthony, Mayer, abreau, refaela, Duran 

quality and could be more with a decent backup - narveaz, 

could be quality but more at bats needed - Casas, Campbell 

very few teams can match this level of young position 

Some teams have bigger stars or even 2-3 better than ours, but I like our depth.

Our pitching depth has made a major leap upwards, since Brez took over, too.

Positional:

8-9 Anthony & Campbell

6 Rafaela

5+ Narvaez, Mayer, Arias, Gonzales, Godbout, Soto, Romero & more

4 Abreu, DHam

3 Duran, Casas, Romy, Wong

2-3 Story, Contreras

Pitching:

6 Crochet

5+ Tolle, Early, Bennet, Witherspoon, Valera, Phillips, Sandlin, Eyanson, Holobetz & more

5 Harrison

4-5 Bello

4 Slaten

3 Crawford

1-2 or 2 year guys: Chapman, S Gray, Oviedo,  Houck, Masa, Hicks

1 year left: Whitlock & Sandoval

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/30/2025 at 2:38 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

apparently they are about 23rd. 

they are not near that low.  think about 10-12 but JH has CB working on it

[Randy Red Sox]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Some teams have bigger stars or even 2-3 better than ours, but I like our depth.

Our pitching depth has made a major leap upwards, since Brez took over, too.

Positional:

8-9 Anthony & Campbell

6 Rafaela

5+ Narvaez, Mayer, Arias, Gonzales, Godbout, Soto, Romero & more

4 Abreu, DHam

3 Duran, Casas, Romy, Wong

2-3 Story, Contreras

Pitching:

6 Crochet

5+ Tolle, Early, Bennet, Witherspoon, Valera, Phillips, Sandlin, Eyanson, Holobetz & more

5 Harrison

4-5 Bello

4 Slaten

3 Crawford

1-2 or 2 year guys: Chapman, S Gray, Oviedo,  Houck, Masa, Hicks

1 year left: Whitlock & Sandoval

who is Sandoval??  Is he on the team??

[JoeBrady]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Angels finally rid themselves of Rendon by restructuring his remaining money owed, but are showing interest in Arenado?

Is there a worse management group in all of sports?

No, not in my opinion.  Their player development is awful.  They have no respect for the concept of advancing players when they are ready.  Their latest is Christian Moore.  He has less than 400 minor league ABs, and his AAA numbers project to 200Ks/600 ABs.    This is not like a 25 year old kid that's run out of time.  Or a team in contention that needs a 2B.

And now he has 62 Ks in 162 ABs, a pace of 230/600 ABs.  Is anyone surprised?

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The Angels finally rid themselves of Rendon by restructuring his remaining money owed, but are showing interest in Arenado?

Is there a worse management group in all of sports?

if i'm Breslow, i'm calling them to see if they want Hicks and Yoshida.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

who is Sandoval??  Is he on the team??

He may end up moving up to the 2 slot in the rotation, or be DFA'd by the trade deadline.

Patrick Sandoval 2021-2022:

3.17 ERA (132 ERA+)

3.44 FIP and 2.6 K:BB

2023-2024:

4.45 ERA (98 ERA+)

4.07 FIP and 1.9 K:BB

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

if i'm Breslow, i'm calling them to see if they want Hicks and Yoshida.

Great idea!

Masa & Hicks for Trout and $80M. BTV calls it a "moderate overpay" by the Sox. ($100M cash would make it even.)

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He may end up moving up to the 2 slot in the rotation, or be DFA'd by the trade deadline.

Patrick Sandoval 2021-2022:

3.17 ERA (132 ERA+)

3.44 FIP and 2.6 K:BB

2023-2024:

4.45 ERA (98 ERA+)

4.07 FIP and 1.9 K:BB

if he is DFA'd he will join the growing and long list of other such great "low risk" signings of rehabbing SP.  Maybe if new didn't try and waste our $$ on these duds we could afford to spend on a decent FA.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

if he is DFA'd he will join the growing and long list of other such great "low risk" signings of rehabbing SP.  Maybe if new didn't try and waste our $$ on these duds we could afford to spend on a decent FA.

Maybe we are due to get one right.

Even Buehler was a similar type gamble.

Richards, Kluber, Paxton twice, Wacha, Hill, Hendriks, Sandoval & Buehler. I'm probably forgetting someone.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

if he is DFA'd he will join the growing and long list of other such great "low risk" signings of rehabbing SP.  Maybe if new didn't try and waste our $$ on these duds we could afford to spend on a decent FA.

Maybe he starts the year in the 60 day DL!  His recovery did not seem to be progressing last season. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe he starts the year in the 60 day DL!  His recovery did not seem to be progressing last season. 

It's hard to know, but I doubt it's the 60 day IL.

There has been very little info on Crawford, Sandoval and Casas.