Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Some weird stuff happened to Bregman last year, and despite his injury he did rebuild some value vs where he was last year. But remember, he could have signed 5 yrs for like 170 with Houtson, he just turned it down becuase he thought he could get 200m, they moved on - and it was deep in FA and his options were limited.

Alonso and Breg vs Schwarber

I honestly think that because they are perceived as "field takers" is a wash with the reality that Schwarber is a better hitter than both.

But because Alonso and Breg are younger, theyll get more.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Alonso and Breg vs Schwarber

I honestly think that because they are perceived as "field takers" is a wash with the reality that Schwarber is a better hitter than both.

But because Alonso and Breg are younger, theyll get more.

Alonso should be a DH, but that's not how  paying players works.

1Bmen do seem to get less, for the most part, but I think the ironman Alonso gets $30-31Mx 4 or $27-29M x 5.

I doubt the Sox go 5, so they will need to max out the AAV on 4.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I disagree, fully. Bregman's 128 OPS+ in just 114 games this year was only the second time he's been over a 122 OPS+ since 2020. 3 times in the last 6 years his OPS+ was 116 or 117. He was showing decline on offense until his half season of hitting well for BOS.

.941 in 81 games from 4/3 to 8/26

(.490 in first 6 games and .571 in last 26 games.)

Of course, I'd rather have Bregman than not, but we'll be lucky to get near that production for 2-3 more years, let alone 4-5 or even 6.

Having a 128 OPS+ year when before that the numbers pointed to a declining OPS trend, and having that 128 OPS+ buck the trend, adds value.  There was a reason Bregman opted out.

You dont get to decide what hes worth.  You beat the market or you dont get him.

Schwarber's contract increased the future contracts of Alonso and Bregman.  By coming off the board (supply vs demand). By getting 5 years.  And if you choose to sit it all out, and re-enter next year - guess what? Inflation only goes one way, bruh
 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Alonso should be a DH, but that's not how  paying players works.

1Bmen do seem to get less, for the most part, but I think the ironman Alonso gets $30-31Mx 4 or $27-29M x 5.

I doubt the Sox go 5, so they will need to max out the AAV on 4.

I think Pittsburgh would pay Alonso 30m x 4.  Pittsburgh.  They offered it to Schwarber.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Alonso should be a DH, but that's not how  paying players works.

1Bmen do seem to get less, for the most part, but I think the ironman Alonso gets $30-31Mx 4 or $27-29M x 5.

I doubt the Sox go 5, so they will need to max out the AAV on 4.

4 x 40 for alonso gets it done if you give him an opt out after year 2. You may even get to defer some.

[Old Red]

The Red Sox have not yet met with Alonso in person only by zoom, and are trying to get an appointment to do so.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Schwarber is a 33 yr old DH and just got 5 years. Why cant Bregman?

Because he showed me last year that he is clearly on the back 9 of his career and heading for the clubhouse as fast as possible!!  
 

just looking for a pay day along the way!!!!  
 

[vjcsmoke]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Alonso should be a DH, but that's not how  paying players works.

1Bmen do seem to get less, for the most part, but I think the ironman Alonso gets $30-31Mx 4 or $27-29M x 5.

I doubt the Sox go 5, so they will need to max out the AAV on 4.

Hey if it takes 4/125 to sign Alonso, let's just get it done. We've got a gaping hole in our lineup because we lost BOTH Devers and Bregman.

Bregman was getting paid 40m per year, so it feels like replacing him with Alonso at 31 per year is a relative bargain. Yes we commit more years but we gave 3/120 to Bregman. It's not that big a stretch in total dollars and Alonso is a couple years younger than Bregman. We should still be mostly in Alonso's prime window for a 4 year deal.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Diaz is getting 3 years $69 million from Dodgers - that’s a high AAV but Dodgers can afford it and I’m not surprised 

It's not particularly outrageous by LAD standards.  Diaz is pretty good.

[Larry Cook]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's not particularly outrageous by LAD standards.  Diaz is pretty good.

How does tanner scott feel about this signing??

[Old Red]

44 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

Hey if it takes 4/125 to sign Alonso, let's just get it done. We've got a gaping hole in our lineup because we lost BOTH Devers and Bregman.

Bregman was getting paid 40m per year, so it feels like replacing him with Alonso at 31 per year is a relative bargain. Yes we commit more years but we gave 3/120 to Bregman. It's not that big a stretch in total dollars and Alonso is a couple years younger than Bregman. We should still be mostly in Alonso's prime window for a 4 year deal.

It might have said 3/120 on paper to Bregman, but I think both sides knew it was only going to be a 1yr deal. To me it will all depend on how many teams are in on Alonso now, and all it takes is 1 team to go nutty.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Having a 128 OPS+ year when before that the numbers pointed to a declining OPS trend, and having that 128 OPS+ buck the trend, adds value.  There was a reason Bregman opted out.

You dont get to decide what hes worth.  You beat the market or you dont get him.
 

Of course I don't set the market. My point is that I do not feel an 81 game stretch outweighs his 2 season decline, and he had a couple off seasons before that 3 year back good year.

117>113> 134>124>117

All it takes is one GM to get all jacked up over 81 games, and if we have to go too high to match or pass him, I'm fine with walking away.

That's not to say, I want to walk away from everybody, but I would not pick Bregman or Bichette to break our streak of no long deals given out. Neither gives us the power we need.

He's got a sub .800 OPS (123 OPS+) since 2020. That's good, but not great. Not $30M x 5 years great.

Bichette is younger, but he has less power and even worse OPS numbers. (sub .800 and 119 OPS+ since 2020. (118 since 2022.)

If some GM wants to go 5 years, have at him.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

4 x 40 for alonso gets it done if you give him an opt out after year 2. You may even get to defer some.

Differ a ton- get it done!

[Larry Cook]

Is bres-slow prepared to give up young pitching for Marte?? 

[Randy Red Sox]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are interested in a lot of guys. Familiar pattern from almost every offseason from recent memory. 

and the dominos are starting fall. Missed out on Schwarber and couldn't even keep Matz. traded Grissom for a M/L OF who in effect was the trade for Sale. But hey it's not about cutting payroll isn't it?

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

Hey if it takes 4/125 to sign Alonso, let's just get it done. We've got a gaping hole in our lineup because we lost BOTH Devers and Bregman.

Bregman was getting paid 40m per year, so it feels like replacing him with Alonso at 31 per year is a relative bargain. Yes we commit more years but we gave 3/120 to Bregman. It's not that big a stretch in total dollars and Alonso is a couple years younger than Bregman. We should still be mostly in Alonso's prime window for a 4 year deal.

The ONLY way we sign Alonso is if he takes a 1 yr deal with a yr 2 club option.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course I don't set the market. My point is that I do not feel an 81 game stretch outweighs his 2 season decline, and he had a couple off seasons before that 3 year back good year.

117>113> 134>124>117

All it takes is one GM to get all jacked up over 81 games, and if we have to go too high to match or pass him, I'm fine with walking away.

That's not to say, I want to walk away from everybody, but I would not pick Bregman or Bichette to break our streak of no long deals given out. Neither gives us the power we need.

He's got a sub .800 OPS (123 OPS+) since 2020. That's good, but not great. Not $30M x 5 years great.

Bichette is younger, but he has less power and even worse OPS numbers. (sub .800 and 119 OPS+ since 2020. (118 since 2022.)

If some GM wants to go 5 years, have at him.

Don't worry Moon since the Sox will not consider a deal ANY LONGER THAN 3 YEARS AT MOST which l;ikel;y takes us out of the running for any of Bichette, Bregman, or Alonso. Think Polonco on a 1 yr deal or maybe Suarez if no-one else offers him 3 years or more. Haven't we seen this movie before. Interested in everyone but get no-one.

[Randy Red Sox]

12 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is bres-slow prepared to give up young pitching for Marte?? 

they better not give up either Early, Tolle, or Witherspoon for a 32 yr old 2B

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

How does tanner scott feel about this signing??

Asking me to read people's minds is (slightly) out of my lane, but I believe the scientific term is 'I can't believe they are paying me $72M for this.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

all it takes is 1 team to go nutty.

That's why it doesn't bother me to lose most FAs.  There are some teams that make historically bad decisions.  There are some GMs that won't make it thru one more losing season.  You cannot bid against them in a signing or trade, without hurting yourself.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

The ONLY way we sign Alonso is if he takes a 1 yr deal with a yr 2 club option.

Is baltimore going to take a run at Alonso??
The Mets may or may not have offered 3 years. We offered 4 years.
would Baltimore go 5 years???  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

 

 

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

they better not give up either Early, Tolle, or Witherspoon for a 32 yr old 2B

Don't worry Randy since the Sox will not consider a deal ANY LONGER THAN 3 YEARS AT MOST which likely takes us out of the running for KMarte. Think Polonco on a 1 yr deal or maybe Suarez if no-one else offers him 3 years or more. Haven't we seen this movie before. Interested in everyone but get no-one.

[Hitch]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are interested in a lot of guys. Familiar pattern from almost every offseason from recent memory. 

As they should be. Everyone is interested and checks in on everyone. 

[mvp 78]

Set your watches everyone.

 

[Hitch]

I reckon Bres is setting up a pick and trade again. 

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

 

Word down here in HOU is that a trade is coming today- perhaps Jake Myers fo Bubic or Duran & Wong for Paredes & Walker Yanek

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Word down here in HOU is that a trade is coming today- perhaps Jake Myers fo Bubic or Duran & Wong for Paredes & Walker Yanek

Sox wouldn't have a backup catcher? Would they be signing Vaz? 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox wouldn't have a backup catcher? Would they be signing Vaz? 

Caratini.

[drewski6]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Caratini.

Your carrot flavored martini sounds intersting, but what about our catcher problem?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Your carrot flavored martini sounds intersting, but what about our catcher problem?

I don't ha ve any issues with Narvaez.