Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt they'd want 1 year Sandoval, and it's hard to know who they like. They might like Crawford more than Harrison + Dobbins. They might really like Perales.

I think they have good reason to insist on Tolle or Early, and I doubt even Arias could be subbed in. The name I keep coming back to is Campbell, and I'm not a firm believer in the idea that is stock dropped a ton from March's high point. Again, maybe AZ does not value him highly enough. His lack of a position is worrisome.

Would Campbell, Crawford and Perales get it done?

I dont think so.  I think , apologies if I said this before, we need to know where they think they are in their cycle (rebuild phase vs compete phase) and then we can put together a package.  We can put one together in either case, just a question of how much value they will put on current guys.  For example if they think they are going to compete , they'll be more interested in short term help like Sandoval.

The name I keep coming back to is Cedanne.  I dont dislike Cedanne, and the fact that we've struggled defensively does give me pause. But hes got a lot of control, and they do need a CF'er.  I could also part with Duran, but Im not sure if they are looking to compete vs reset.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Ketel Marte doesnt need to resurge.  He can even surge less than he surged last year and still be extremely helpful to our ballclup.

But I agree with you.

He could decline by 5% every year and he'd go from 4.5 fWAR in '25 to...

4.2 in '26

4.0 in '27

3.8 in '28

3.6 in '29

As a reference last 3 year numbers:

Duran has given us 2.5>6.8>2.7

Bichette: 3.9>0.3>3.8

Bregman: 4.2>3.5>4.0

Alonso: 2.8>2.1>3.6

Schwarber 0.9>3.3>4.9

Suarez: 3.5>3.8>3.8

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think so.  I think , apologies if I said this before, we need to know where they think they are in their cycle (rebuild phase vs compete phase) and then we can put together a package.  We can put one together in either case, just a question of how much value they will put on current guys.  For example if they think they are going to compete , they'll be more interested in short term help like Sandoval.

The name I keep coming back to is Cedanne.  I dont dislike Cedanne, and the fact that we've struggled defensively does give me pause. But hes got a lot of control, and they do need a CF'er.  I could also part with Duran, but Im not sure if they are looking to compete vs reset.

I think they'd much prefer Crawford, Harrison or Dobbins than Sandoval, but your point is well-taken.

I agree that we can package to either way they are going.

I have mentioned Rafaela several times in various offers, including for KMarte. He's more proven than Campbell, has many years of control and has proven he has a position mastered.  (He could probably be a plus at 2B in les sthan a year of FT play, but why?)

I'd give Rafaela and any two from the 3 pitchers I mentioned for a "win soon" package to AZ.

Keeping Duran over Rafaela should help the offense, but who knows in 1-2 years where Duran and CR will be on offense. Both Duran (7.7 + 2 arbs) and Rafaela (6.3 x 6 years) would both help offset some of the $19.5M AAV KMarte would bring to the budget. That might help leave just enough budget space for one big bat signing. I certainly think they could afford Suarez on a 2 x $20M or 3 X $17M deal.

Maybe Marte & Suarez could be enough.

1. L Anthony CF/RF

2. S Marte 2B

3. L Duran LF/CF/DH

4. R Suarez 3B/1B

5. L Abreu RF- R Refsnyder LF/DH

6. R Story SS

7. L Casas 1B/DH-R Romy 1B/3B/DH- L Masa DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 3B/R Romy 3B/DH

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He could decline by 5% every year

In this model, he becomes a 1 WAR guy at age 60. 🤔

Sox need to trade for Marte and extend him to a 30/360 contract! They'd get an AAV reduction right off the bat! 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In this model, he becomes a 1 WAR guy at age 60. 🤔

Sox need to trade for Marte and extend him to a 30/360 contract! They'd get an AAV reduction right off the bat! 

He'll be a Yankee by then!

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He could decline by 5% every year and he'd go from 4.5 fWAR in '25 to...

The science says 0.5 WAR per year.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

The science says 0.5 WAR per year.

after 32?

Someone who is a 0.2 WAR guys goes to -0.3? Same as a 6.0 goes to 5.5?

[moonslav59]

 

So, maybe K Marte goes from 4.5 fWAR in '25 to...

4.1 in '26

3.7 in '27

3.2 in '28

2.6 in '29

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/2/2025 at 5:38 AM, Hugh2 said:

Crazy offseason move ideal of the week. Two Trades.

Trade 1. Tristan Casas and Kutter Crawford to St. Louis for Brendan Donavan to play 3B. 

Trade 2. Jarren Duran and Payton Tolle to KC for Cole Ragans. 

Sox sign Japanese FA Kazuma Okamoto to play 1B

Offense. 

3B Brendan Donovan

LF Roman Anthony

SS Trevor Story

RF Wilyer Abreu

1B Kazuma Okamoto

2B Marcelo Mayer

DH Masataka Yoshida

CF Ceddane Rafaela

C Carlos Narvez. 

Bench: Wong/Garcia/Romy/Eaten

Rotation: 

Garrett Crochet

Cole Ragans

Sonny Gray

Brayan Bello

Patrick Sandoval

 

Why there is a greater than 0% chance of this happening???? It involves the Red Sox staying under the luxury tax. 

 

 

couldn't Tolle put up a 3-3 record with a 4.67 era next season??  I'm betting he could

[Larry Cook]

9 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Tolle and Early are hard to part with , for sure.  I can see it falling apart because Marte is unique/special, so they prob feel justified insisting on one of our top 2 pitching prospects vs one of our top 5 pitching prospects.

I can also see the Sox holding on to the pitchers for the reasons you mention.  One thing Im not sure, is how close Arizona sees themself.  If they are looking to get back to playoffs immediately, they could have interest in somone like Sandoval/Cutter K , especially if we eat money.  Of course would have to include Harrison or something.  But yeah, I can see it falling apart.

Arizona wants two starters for Marte and if bres-slow wants to talk to Arizona. One of Early dobbins and Tolle and one of Witherspoon, McNeil and evenston are what I think it will take at a minimum 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Arizona wants two starters for Marte and if bres-slow wants to talk to Arizona. One of Early dobbins and Tolle and one of Witherspoon, McNeil and evenston are what I think it will take at a minimum 

One starter can now be Oviedo!

Brez is brilliant!

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

after 32?

Someone who is a 0.2 WAR guys goes to -0.3? Same as a 6.0 goes to 5.5?

Think in terms of 'on average'.  Don't hate the science; hate the accountant.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

So, maybe K Marte goes from 4.5 fWAR in '25 to...

4.1 in '26

3.7 in '27

3.2 in '28

2.6 in '29

2.1 in '30 and 1.6 in '31.  You kind of have to include all years.

[Larry Cook]

Did we just steal Ryan otero from the cubs??? 
 

I think otero was working with bres-slow when bres-slow was in Chicago!! 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

One starter can now be Oviedo!

Brez is brilliant!

Oviedo and Harrison. 

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One starter can now be Oviedo!

Brez is brilliant!

if that is the plan then fine but I seriously doubt it. This offseason is shaping up just like the last 3-4. Bring in some decent but not top talent on short term deals and then watch them leave. It is POSSIBLE they resign Bregman but that would almost certainly be the one "big" bat they acquire. Schwarber IMO is nothing but a pipe dream and Alonso too unless somehow Casas is traded. Sox are almost always in on the big names in FA but rarely land one.

[Hitch]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The supahfan is such a journalist that goes after the FO soooo hard that he just loves having his boy Sam on the show. The guy who really calls out the FO on that pod is Coley Mick and the general community dislikes half of his takes even though he's right and 7' tall. 

Well, I specifically said that he is NOT a journalist, but he is media. And my point was only that he has called out (repeatedly) the FO for not being honest and talking more. 

If you want to take up a conversation about how good is superfan brand is, or his journalistic skills when interviewing, you're going to have to find someone that cares about such things.

I like some of Coley's takes, some he's way off, same as everyone really.  Tyler is the only one I really like as he actually looks at stats and evidence to back up some of his positions, but in general, I take them all with a huge pinch of salt. Being media doesn't mean you should be listened to. In fact, evidence shows us across the spectrum you absolutely shouldn't. 

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Good for you, at 41 Im also aging in reverse.  Drinking less and working out more.

Me, three. Amazing how age gets your arse in gear health wise. All those wasted years...in every sense of the word.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

One starter can now be Oviedo!

Brez is brilliant!

The Oviedo move surely nudges us towards trading a couple of starting pitchers now? I don't think we'll trade Oviedo, but Harrison, Dobbins, Crawford, and maybe one of Early/Tolle are starting to look likely.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

2.1 in '30 and 1.6 in '31.  You kind of have to include all years.

'31 is a player option year, but yes. 2.1 is pretty good. Look at our 2B WAR numbers for the last decade.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

McNeil and evenston

Who? 

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

if that is the plan then fine but I seriously doubt it. This offseason is shaping up just like the last 3-4. Bring in some decent but not top talent on short term deals and then watch them leave. It is POSSIBLE they resign Bregman but that would almost certainly be the one "big" bat they acquire. Schwarber IMO is nothing but a pipe dream and Alonso too unless somehow Casas is traded. Sox are almost always in on the big names in FA but rarely land one.

Fair assessment/ valid frustration.  Im open to us doing more, but not counting on more.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

The Oviedo move surely nudges us towards trading a couple of starting pitchers now? I don't think we'll trade Oviedo, but Harrison, Dobbins, Crawford, and maybe one of Early/Tolle are starting to look likely.

Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Kutter, Early, Tolle, Criswell (hope we can keep him) leaves Harrison and Dobbins as trade bait.  Dont think we'll get value for Kutter, but like him well enough as a depth option or maybe swing man.  Think Harrison is most likely to get moved, Dobbins second, I welcome either.  Maybe even with someone else for a pitcher (pitcher quantity for quality swap). Also, prob still going to move one of Duran/Abreu/Cedanne at some point.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Me, three. Amazing how age gets your arse in gear health wise. All those wasted years...in every sense of the word.

Keep it up, I tip my cap to you internet stranger

[Hitch]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Kutter, Early, Tolle, Criswell (hope we can keep him) leaves Harrison and Dobbins as trade bait.  Dont think we'll get value for Kutter, but like him well enough as a depth option or maybe swing man.  Think Harrison is most likely to get moved, Dobbins second, I welcome either.  Maybe even with someone else for a pitcher (pitcher quantity for quality swap). Also, prob still going to move one of Duran/Abreu/Cedanne at some point.

Harrison and an outfielder definitely feel the most likely. Should bring back something very good, too.

Saying that, Bres has surprised me on both trades, so I wouldn't be surprised to be blindsided again. 

[mvp 78]

22 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Good for you, at 41 Im also aging in reverse.  Drinking less and working out more.

Check back in after 45. IMO, that's when the wheels start to come off. 

[Duran Is The Man]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Check back in after 45. IMO, that's when the wheels start to come off. 

wait til you hit 50....that check engine light starts coming on all the time.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Kutter, SANDOVAL, Early, Tolle, Criswell (hope we can keep him) leaves Harrison and Dobbins as trade bait.  Dont think we'll get value for Kutter, but like him well enough as a depth option or maybe swing man.  Think Harrison is most likely to get moved, Dobbins second, I welcome either.  Maybe even with someone else for a pitcher (pitcher quantity for quality swap). Also, prob still going to move one of Duran/Abreu/Cedanne at some point.

Fixed it for you.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Harrison and an outfielder definitely feel the most likely. Should bring back something very good, too.

Saying that, Bres has surprised me on both trades, so I wouldn't be surprised to be blindsided again. 

I could see a Duran, Harrison & Crawford deal for a solid #2 or a big bat like K Marte.

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Fixed it for you.

I accept your change request