Red Sox (Harrison) vs Rays (Houser): 9/20/25, 7:05pm

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Cheery picking

Dont worry we all do it

I don’t have time right now to look at BR but I will later. I believe he started off strong, then tailed off for a long period of time, then picked it up again a bit. 

Yes, like most players, he has a cool stretch, but then he warmed back up.

Yes, it was cherry-picked.

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, like most players, he has a cool stretch, but then he warmed back up.

Yes, it was cherry-picked.

Bottom line: we need at least two reliable bats next year. Then having Rafaela and another guy who isn’t good with a bat won’t hurt as much.

[Maxbialystock]

41 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

He’s part of the problem. So is Yoshida, Lowe, Narvaez, Wong etc. 

Look, I do recognize that one player can make a difference.  We do miss Anthony's bat.  We don;t miss Campbell;'s bat, glove, or arm. Ditto Toro.  Ditto Hicks.

On the other hand the Sox are very competitive in the AL right now.  With just 7 games to go they have 85 wins to Toronto's league best 89, Yankees 87, and Detroit's 85, Cleveland's 84, Seattle's 85, and Houston's 84.

Right now the Sox have stud pitcher, Crochet (and Chapman), but no stud hitter since Anthony went on the IL.  

Despite that--or because of it--the collective Sox, the team that pitches, fields, hits, and runs the bases is a pretty good ball club, albeit with imperfections.  

You are right to point your finger at the hitting, but the Sox are pretty good at the other 3 items and right now seem to be hitting the ball well collectively.   

They've scored 17 runs in 2 games against a good pitching Rays team with a team ERA of 3.85.  Tonight 5 different Sox had an rbi.  Last night 7 Sox had 1 or more rbi's.  Rotten, terrible, useless Yoshida had an rbi in both games.  Narvaez is the best defensive catcher in MLB as a rookie.  Lowe's OPS with the Sox is a semi-decent .722 and plays an OK first base.   He had 2 rbi's last night and 1 tonight.  Wong didn't play in either game but he is a good backup catcher whose September OPS is a decent .750.

So, please, lift your eyes up from the trees and take a gander at the forest.  Did I forget to mention that the AL East once again has the best W-L record of the six MLB divisions?  

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Bottom line: we need at least two reliable bats next year. Then having Rafaela and another guy who isn’t good with a bat won’t hurt as much.

Yes, we need 2 bats, unless we stay 95% healthy on O, or Anthony contends for MVP.

Most teams have worse hitting catchers than Narvaez.The MLB Catcher OPS is .700, which is about 20 below the league OPS overall.

Even the very good teams often have 2 batters at .700 or less and many have 3.

[harmony]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Look, I do recognize that one player can make a difference.  We do miss Anthony's bat.  We don;t miss Campbell;'s bat, glove, or arm. Ditto Toro.  Ditto Hicks.

On the other hand the Sox are very competitive in the AL right now.  With just 7 games to go they have 85 wins to Toronto's league best 89, Yankees 87, and Detroit's 85, Cleveland's 84, Seattle's 85, and Houston's 84;

FWIW Seattle posted its 86th win Saturday evening and would have a first-round bye if the season ended at midnight.

Of course the season does not end at midnight ...

[vegasbob]

16 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW Seattle posted its 86th win Saturday evening and would have a first-round bye if the season ended at midnight.

Of course the season does not end at midnight ...

7 teams playing for 6 slots. Who will be the odd man out.  I'll say Guardians. Their run is not sustainable.   Tigers have become vulnerable  but will rebound in last 3 games, lol

in serious mindset. I expected to meet Detroit as they were resting up for playoffs ( no Skubal). Now looks like they will be fighting for playoff lives. Good thing we are at Fenway where we hit so well

[vegasbob]

One thing Bres said that may be  very true. This team won more games without Baby Chubs than whenhe played for them

[FredLynn]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, we need 2 bats, unless we stay 95% healthy on O, or Anthony contends for MVP.

Most teams have worse hitting catchers than Narvaez.The MLB Catcher OPS is .700, which is about 20 below the league OPS overall.

Even the very good teams often have 2 batters at .700 or less and many have 3.

And most teams have at least two very good offensive players. That more or less makes having a black hole or two manageable. The roster is poorly constructed. Even our somewhat above average hitters aren’t performing. We would be a very different team if we had a Guerrero, a Buxton, a Bichette, a Springer  or two. We can’t option some of our underperforming players but we could send some down in a last ditch effort to make the playoffs.

 

That’s on Breslow

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

And most teams have at least two very good offensive players. That more or less makes having a black hole or two manageable. The roster is poorly constructed. Even our somewhat above average hitters aren’t performing. We would be a very different team if we had a Guerrero, a Buxton, a Bichette, a Springer  or two. We can’t option some of our underperforming players but we could send some down in a last ditch effort to make the playoffs.

 

That’s on Breslow

I have agreed we lack the starpower, but I do think Anthony is one. Bregman is close but not with the power we need, and he may not be back. The lost contract should help us 'move on."

I think our larger-than-norm second tier batters may make up for the "lack," but I will say I think we need one beast of a bat and hopes we stay healthy in 2026. Two improves the odds much better.

I'm talking Alonso, Schwarber or Suarez. If we got Tucker, I suppose we could trade 2 OF'ers for an ace or another big bat for 1B, 2B or DH.

Duran, Abreu, Story, Casas and maybe Mayer could all be very nice "next tier" bats to go along with 2 big one. I trust Anthony is one, but I get the wish to have two proven ones.

[FredLynn]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I have agreed we lack the starpower, but I do think Anthony is one. Bregman is close but not with the power we need, and he may not be back. The lost contract should help us 'move on."

I think our larger-than-norm second tier batters may make up for the "lack," but I will say I think we need one beast of a bat and hopes we stay healthy in 2026. Two improves the odds much better.

I'm talking Alonso, Schwarber or Suarez. If we got Tucker, I suppose we could trade 2 OF'ers for an ace or another big bat for 1B, 2B or DH.

Duran, Abreu, Story, Casas and maybe Mayer could all be very nice "next tier" bats to go along with 2 big one. I trust Anthony is one, but I get the wish to have two proven ones.

If we get a couple from that list Rafaela is fine in CF-next year. But THIS YEAR we can’t afford him. Not if we want to make the playoffs. I’d rather send other non performing players down like Yoshida or Lowe but that’s not possible. It’s a risk bringing up Password or Campbell but I don’t see us making the playoffs without taking the chance.

Henry is going to have to open his wallet and Breslow is going to have to do his job better.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

And most teams have at least two very good offensive players. 

Most good teams. Not all.

NYY has Judge, who kinda counts as 2 and Bellinger, but he's a FA. Stanton is old. I guess Chisholm w 30 dingers counts. Counts as 2+.

TOR has Springer at #4 & Vladdy at #16 in OPS: check. Bichette is a FA.

SEA has Raleigh, but Suarez is a FA. Just 1

HOU has an injured Y Alvarez. Just 1.

CLE has Ramirez and nada. Just 1.

DET has zero batters over .810. ZERO.

The NL???.

LAD have 3-4

PHI might lose Schwarber then Turner at .815 is left- **** zero.

NYM has Soto and FA to be Alonso.

The Cubs have FA to be Tucker and Bush

Does SDP count with Tatis & Machado near .800? The Sox have 3-4 of those.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

If we get a couple from that list Rafaela is fine in CF-next year. But THIS YEAR we can’t afford him. Not if we want to make the playoffs. I’d rather send other non performing players down like Yoshida or Lowe but that’s not possible. It’s a risk bringing up Password or Campbell but I don’t see us making the playoffs without taking the chance.

Henry is going to have to open his wallet and Breslow is going to have to do his job better.

We'll have to agree to disagree on Brez. I think he has a decent "hit rate" on additions while working wonders with the farm and improved pitching outlooks.

Of course, having Devers and Priester, right now, or a healthy Sale is enough to make any fan cringe, he struck gold with Crochet, Chapman, silver with Gio & Slaten and Bronze with Narvaez, Romy, Breggie and maybe Matz or some others.

I hope we don't rely on Anthony to be the second big bat, although I think he will be a big enough bat, but I also think we need to fill Gio's shoes with a solid #2 type SP'er. Bello could pull a Houck or Crawford.

I'm not sure JH will fork over enough for 3 big signings, so at least one has to be a trade, and Brez needs to nail it like he did with Crochet.

[Duran Is The Man]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Most good teams. Not all.

NYY has Judge, who kinda counts as 2 and Bellinger, but he's a FA. Stanton is old. I guess Chisholm w 30 dingers counts. Counts as 2+.

TOR has Springer at #4 & Vladdy at #16 in OPS: check. Bichette is a FA.

SEA has Raleigh, but Suarez is a FA. Just 1

HOU has an injured Y Alvarez. Just 1.

CLE has Ramirez and nada. Just 1.

DET has zero batters over .810. ZERO.

The NL???.

LAD have 3-4

PHI might lose Schwarber then Turner at .815 is left- **** zero.

NYM has Soto and FA to be Alonso.

The Cubs have FA to be Tucker and Bush

Does SDP count with Tatis & Machado near .800? The Sox have 3-4 of those.

you forget that Seattle also has Julio Rodriguez. his 6.4 bWAR is ahead of Ohtani and only trails Judge, Perdomo and teammate Raleigh.

[moonslav59]

Maybe I'm a fool for having faith in Casas for 2026, but I do. He may not be the beast of a bat, I've spoken of, but he and others can come close enough, so maybe we can get by with only adding one from Alonso, Schwarber or Suarez, (Breggie or not.)

.875+ One of the 3

.800-.875: Anthony

.775-.850: Casas, Duran, Abreu (Ref, if he stays)

.750-.825: Story, Romy & maybe Mayer or Yoshida (Breggie, if he stays)

.725-.775: Narvaez & maybe Jh Garcia or Campbell

.675-.725: Rafaela, Wong, DHam/Sogard/Eaton

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you forget that Seattle also has Julio Rodriguez. his 6.4 bWAR is ahead of Ohtani and only trails Judge, Perdomo and teammate Raleigh.

I was mostly looking at OPS, but yes, I'd count Julio and his 30+ HRs, although a .799 OPS is pretty common in a Sox line-up.

If we are going by WAR, then the whole idea of needing to make up for Rafaela is moot.

OK, SEA has 2, NYY & TOR, as well.

HOU, DET & CLE do not, so half our comp teams do not have 2.

Many NL teams are in danger of losing their 2nd guy.

[harmony]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Most good teams. Not all.

NYY has Judge, who kinda counts as 2 and Bellinger, but he's a FA. Stanton is old. I guess Chisholm w 30 dingers counts. Counts as 2+.

TOR has Springer at #4 & Vladdy at #16 in OPS: check. Bichette is a FA.

SEA has Raleigh, but Suarez is a FA. Just 1

Going into Saturday's games, among American League qualified hitters in wRC+, Seattle's had Cal Raleigh at No. 2, Jorge Polanco at No. 11, Julio Rodriguez at No. 15 and Randy Arozarena at No, 22:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1&pageitems=30

Among qualified hitters, Jarren Duran topped the Red Sox at No. 35 with 114, the same wRC+ as Seattle's J.P. Crawford, who ranked No, 34.

Raleigh, Rodriguez, Arozarena and Crawford remain under team control next season but Polanco is unlikely to exercise his player option for 2026.

Seven Red Sox players, including Rafael Devers, had posted wRC+ above 114 but lacked the requisite plate appearances to qualify for the rankings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&type=8&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pageitems=30&team=3&qual=20

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

7 hours ago, harmony said:

Going into Saturday's games, among American League qualified hitters in wRC+, Seattle's had Cal Raleigh at No. 2, Jorge Polanco at No. 11, Julio Rodriguez at No. 15 and Randy Arozarena at No, 22:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1&pageitems=30

Among qualified hitters, Jarren Duran topped the Red Sox at No. 35 with 114, the same wRC+ as Seattle's J.P. Crawford, who ranked No, 34.

Raleigh, Rodriguez, Arozarena and Crawford remain under team control next season but Polanco is unlikely to exercise his player option for 2026.

Seven Red Sox players, including Rafael Devers, had posted wRC+ above 114 but lacked the requisite plate appearances to qualify for the rankings:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&type=8&season=2025&month=0&season1=2025&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pageitems=30&team=3&qual=20

All that offense and good pitching and yet they're only 1 game ahead of the Sox, who play in a tougher division. One would think Seattle would be challenging Toronto for best record in the AL.

[FredLynn]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We'll have to agree to disagree on Brez. I think he has a decent "hit rate" on additions while working wonders with the farm and improved pitching outlooks.

Of course, having Devers and Priester, right now, or a healthy Sale is enough to make any fan cringe, he struck gold with Crochet, Chapman, silver with Gio & Slaten and Bronze with Narvaez, Romy, Breggie and maybe Matz or some others.

I hope we don't rely on Anthony to be the second big bat, although I think he will be a big enough bat, but I also think we need to fill Gio's shoes with a solid #2 type SP'er. Bello could pull a Houck or Crawford.

I'm not sure JH will fork over enough for 3 big signings, so at least one has to be a trade, and Brez needs to nail it like he did with Crochet.

Breslow has made several good moves, obviously. But if they don’t make the playoffs then the job he has done simply isn’t good enough. That’s the bottom line.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

Among qualified hitters, Jarren Duran topped the Red Sox at No. 35 with 114, the same wRC+ as Seattle's J.P. Crawford, who ranked No, 34.

Seven Red Sox players, including Rafael Devers, had posted wRC+ above 114 but lacked the requisite plate appearances to qualify for the rankings:

Boston's offense may be lacking a lot of consistent contact, and longball threats, but requisite plate appearances aren't the problem. 

That just means the Sox' part-timers are good part of the time -- good enough, somehow, to win 15 more games than they lose.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

All that offense and good pitching and yet they're only 1 game ahead of the Sox, who play in a tougher division. One would think Seattle would be challenging Toronto for best record in the AL.

Indeed the Seattle Mariners have underperformed for much of the season. That “good” pitching has produced an ERA+ of 98.

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, harmony said:

Indeed the Seattle Mariners have underperformed for much of the season. That “good” pitching has produced an ERA+ of 98.

They probably have as good a chance of making it to the Series as any team in the AL.

[harmony]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They probably have as good a chance of making it to the Series as any team in the AL.

FanGraphs currently gives Seattle the highest-percentage chance of winning the World Series:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

... probably cursing the Mariners in the postseason month this poster turns 70 years old.😁

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Seattle deserves to get to their first World Series because even though they already had the HR champ and three other consistent longball threats, they still swung deals at the deadline for two more -- Naylor and Suarez.

That's going for it. Boston desperately needed just one of those D-back power guys to replace Devers' pop, but decided it wasn't worth it this year.

[moonslav59]

I was wrong about SEA's offense having just 1-2 top batters. That being said, I don't count Polanco as one or as in a higher tier than Anthony, Abreu, Duran or Casas going forward. 

Arozarena is a good  hitter, too, but he never hit more than 23 HRs, until this year, has a .235 BA and .334 OBP and .762 OPS. He's not in my top tier batters, either.

SEA has the advantage of having 5 batters with 500+ PAs. It's weird that they have zero with between 295 and 506 PAs. They have 11 batters with 172-295 PAs, and that does not include last night's defensive hero, Victor Robles.

One can accuse me of cherry-picking the PA cut off, but I'm going with two groups: 300+ and 150-300.

Here are the OPS+ for each category:

BOS:

T1: 139 Anthony, 129 Bregman, 127 Romy, 122 Abreu, 117 Duran, 107 Story, 99 Narvaez, 91 Rafaela

T2: 136 Refsnyder, 86 KC, 82 Toro, 76 Yoshida, 62 DHam, 46 Wong

SEA:

169 Raleigh, 132 Polanco, 128 J Rod, 119 Arozarena, 111 Crawford

T2: 140 Canzone, 129 Naylor, 97 Suarez, 93 Tellez, 86 Raley & Garver, 80 Young, 78 Moore, 76 Williamson

DET: (10 batter with 300+)

T1: 123 Tork, 120 Greene, 118 Carpenter, 112 Torres & McKinstry, 107 Keith, 106 Dingler, 105 Perez, 85 Baez, 53 Sweeney

T2: 80 Meadows and Ibanez

HOU:

T1: 131 Pena, 126 Paredes, 121  110 Altuve, 108 Myers, 102 Caratini, 92 Diaz, 91 Walker, 89 Smith, 82 Dubon

T2: 121 Alvarez & 116 Correa

CLE:

T1: 137 Ramirez, 112 Manzardo, 98 Kwan, 83 Bo Nayor, 81 Santana,  80 DS, 78 Arias, 75 Martinez, 74 Rocchio, 68 Jones

T2: 64 Fry & 41 Hedges

 

 

NYY:

T1: 211 Judge, 127 Grisham, 124 Chisholm, 122 Rice, 125 Bellinger, 107 Goldschmidt, 102 Dominguez, 95 Wells, 84 Volpe

T2: 150 Stanton, 75 McMahon, 27 Peraza

TOR:
T1: 155 Springer, 137 Vlad, 128 Bichette, 108 Kirk, 103 Barger, 94 Clement & Lukas, 61 Gimenez

T2: 127 Varsho, 124 Schneider, 116 Heineman, 83 Straw, 58 Santander

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Breslow has made several good moves, obviously. But if they don’t make the playoffs then the job he has done simply isn’t good enough. That’s the bottom line.

So, we make it and Brez is okay and not make it we fire him?

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently gives Seattle the highest-percentage chance of winning the World Series:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

... probably cursing the Mariners in the postseason month this poster turns 70 years old.😁

 

I'm right behind you, I'll be 70 in January.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

So, we make it and Brez is okay and not make it we fire him?

Don't let him drag you into his negative rabbit hole! 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, we make it and Brez is okay and not make it we fire him?

That seems way to extreme to me

if there was any truth to suitors not wanting the Boston position, firing Breslow after one season only makes that situation much worse.  

there’s value in continuity, and if you turn this front office into a revolving door you will lose more than just candidates, and a franchise that looks a year away from seriously competing could be thrown into chaos.  
 

Breslow seems to be fine, are a few moves worthy of critique? Yes, but no more than any GM who had the balls to actually make moves.  
 

people need to chill out and let these guys cook

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Don't let him drag you into his negative rabbit hole! 

Winning and making the playoffs are very important measuring sticks, for sure.

I think the improvement this team has made under Brez is significant and deserves more than aside statements followed quickly by a "but..."

Winning % since 2018:

.519 2019

.400 2020 (rock bottom)

.568 2021 (last hurrah from the DD bunch)

.481 2022

.481 2023 (the Bloom plateau)

.500 2024

.548 2025, so far

I think we all agree the roster was in shambles after 2023, but the farm offered some promise for the everyday side of the future roster. Bloom had deepened the roster to some extent, but we were lean on star power and pitching.

When you look at the 50 man roster (40+10 on 60 Day IL,) today, one thing that jumps out at me is that only 16 players were on the 40 at the end of 2023!

4 on 60 Day: Houck, Crawford, Casas & Wink

5 Role Players: Refsnyder, Wong, Kelly, Murphy, DHam

1 Overpaid Player: Yoshida

6 Meaningful Players: Duran, Bello, Story, Whitlock, Abreu & Rafaela

Several players added to the 40 after 2023 were in the system, already, but these are the ones added by Brez:

Weissert (17th seniority of current 50.)

Slaten, Fitts & Romy

Criswell, Grissom, Hendriks

After 2023:

Crochet, Chapman, Bregman, Giolito & Tolle

Wilson, Eaton, Harrison, Matz, Moran, Lowe

Sandoval, Hicks, May & A Sanchez

Non 40 Man Additions still in system:

Fajardo, Holobetz, Sandlin, YRod, J Bello, Judice

Witherspoon, J Gonzalez, Clarke, Phillips, Godbout, Aita, Eyanson, Wehunt, E Rivera

Azocar, Soto, Delzine, Rivas, Ramos, Cason, B Morgan, Jorge Rod,  Futrell, M White, D Reyes, Foutch, Patton, Fermin, Finley 

Neely, Turner, H White, Tygart, M Martin, Winnay & others

I'm probably missing someone(s.) I think this list is rather astounding for 2 years in control. Certainly, mistakes were made, and those are pointed out over and over, but there are many more good moves.

[moonslav59]

Shout out for a pretty awesome start by Harrison. It's the first plus we've gotten from the Devers trade, and it could not have come at a better time.

It might end up being all he ever does for us, but he did come with some pretty high bonafides, as well as some pretty big question marks.

Anyway, big start from the guy!

Nice close out by the trio of Slaten, Whitlock & CHapman after Wilson put a scare back into the outcome.

While 10 hits is nothing great, getting 10+ for a couple straight games could be a sign the team slump is ending- just in time. Let's see how the O looks, tonight.