The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He was 3rd percentile sprint speed this year and 1st percentile last season. Not sure the mathematics involved in figuring out what his sprint speed will be post surgery. I may have to go to Jacksonville for a state cross country meet next week and the zoo up there has two camels. I can ask them to run the math for me. 🐪

He will drop down in sprint speed because of the retirement of Martin Maldonado and the likelihood of Rowdy Tellez actually getting back to MLB.

This will leave him fighting Wilmer Flores, Giancarlo Stanton and a couple backup catchers for the honor of being the slowest man in MLB…

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer has never proven himself at the big league level. Casas went 840 PAs at .820.

Yes, he has to prove he is over an injury and maybe a little bit that his first 840 PAs were not a fluke, but I see a big difference between Casas and Mayer. Casas was beyond the "development" stage of his career. He did not miss nearly as much time in the minors as Mayer. He had over 1200 PAs in the minors at .860. He'll be 26 in January.

If he's healthy, he's a starter. He also hits lefties well enough to be a FT'er, unlike Lowe.

I’m just guessing here, but I don’t think the Red Sox are as high on Casas as they were a couple of years ago when they offered him that extension. Both Casas, and Mayer have to prove they can stay on the field more than prove what they can do on the field. I hope Casas has been keeping sharp with those mental swings like he did last year.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Only one season above 820. Does that make sense? 

His career OPS makes sense, no?

The one season you speak of was more PAs than the other two combined.

Does it really seem absurd to think .820+ is my expectation?

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

His career OPS makes sense, no?

The one season you speak of was more PAs than the other two combined.

Does it really seem absurd to think .820+ is my expectation?

If he didn't have the specific injury he got, sure. I'm very dubious about it because of his specific injury. I honestly think it'll be career defining. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m just guessing here, but I don’t think the Red Sox are as high on Casas as they were a couple of years ago when they offered him that extension. Both Casas, and Mayer have to prove they can stay on the field more than prove what they can do on the field. I hope Casas has been keeping sharp with those mental swings like he did last year.

Agreed. They would never offer that deal, now. That's different than saying he has to prove himself like Mayer does.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If he didn't have the specific injury he got, sure. I'm very dubious about it because of his specific injury. I honestly think it'll be career defining. 

You may be right. I hope I am right.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If he didn't have the specific injury he got, sure. I'm very dubious about it because of his specific injury. I honestly think it'll be career defining. 

So are you saying he should just be put to sleep?

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

So are you saying he should just be put to sleep?

He should get lots of rest this offseason.

[moonslav59]

Here is MLB.com's breakdown of Sox injured players:

Houck: Torn ulnar collateral ligament right elbow/right flexor pronator strain/ Late '26 or early '27. Underwent Tommy John surgery and also a cleanup of his flexor tendon on Aug. 18. "So, attack the offseason and the rehab the right way," manager Alex Cora said.

Casas: Ruptured patellar tendon, left knee/ 2026. Said he has heard different timetables, but none are longer than a year. Hopes to play on Opening Day 2026. 

Crawford: Right wrist subsheath tear/ 2026. Progressing well several weeks after July 2 surgery. Expects to have a normal offseason and be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Dobbins: Right ACL tear/ 2026. Underwent surgery to repair ACL on Aug. 13. The injury took place on July 11. 

Fitts: Right arm neuritis/ 2026. Regaining strength, but not throwing yet.

Roman Anthony: Left oblique strain/ Mid Round Playoffs. The star rookie feels better moving around, but still hasn't been cleared for baseball activities and doesn't seem all that close. 

Marcelo Mayer: TFCC joint, right wrist/ Most likely not this year- but start of '26. Making progress in recovery from surgery. Has taken some grounders, done some throwing and taken dry swings. Outside shot he could return if Red Sox make a deep playoff run.

Guerrero, Bernardino & Hicks might be available for playoffs. (Guerrero pitched rehab games.)

[mvp 78]

My guesses

Bernie, Hicks, Guerrero, Crawford, Anthony, Mayer: ready for ST

Fitts: MiLB ready on AAA Opening Day

Casas: appears in ST, but not in games, MiLB return late May/early June

Dobbins: MiLB return late '26

Houck: out until '27

 

 

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, notin said:

He will drop down in sprint speed because of the retirement of Martin Maldonado and the likelihood of Rowdy Tellez actually getting back to MLB.

This will leave him fighting Wilmer Flores, Giancarlo Stanton and a couple backup catchers for the honor of being the slowest man in MLB…

My eyes its between Gary Sanchez and Casas.

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

His career OPS makes sense, no?

The one season you speak of was more PAs than the other two combined.

Does it really seem absurd to think .820+ is my expectation?

I think its about time we move on from OPS as the best benchmark.  Walks are out of style.

[drewski6]

My rule of thumb is that if you are less athletic than me, time to hang em up.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My guesses

Bernie, Hicks, Guerrero, Crawford, Anthony, Mayer: ready for ST

Fitts: MiLB ready on AAA Opening Day

Casas: appears in ST, but not in games, MiLB return late May/early June

Dobbins: MiLB return late '26

Houck: out until '27

I'm hopeful Dobbins makes it back earlier, but August might be pushing it. (One year after surgery)

I'm not counting on 1 IP from Houck.

Casas is the tough call. His surgery was May 5, 2025, so one year is about what you said. With the Sox, add 1-2 months.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think its about time we move on from OPS as the best benchmark.  Walks are out of style.

Okay, hoes this?

He's hit 30 bombs per 650 PA?

He had a .473 SLG from '22-'24. (.480 '23-'24- that's top 30.)

His .225 ISO from '23-'24 is top 30, too.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think its about time we move on from OPS as the best benchmark.  Walks are out of style.

What would you prefer? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What would you prefer? 

A hit! All our Little League coaches were wrong -- a walk's not as good.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A hit! All our Little League coaches were wrong -- a walk's not as good.

4th in hits and BA.

#1 in 2b's. 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A hit! All our Little League coaches were wrong -- a walk's not as good.

Not when you are casas.  Although, its hard to get a hit when you are at risk to be thrown out at first on a gapper

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

4th in hits and BA.

#1 in 2b's. 

I dont like the stop back profile.  I like meeting the ball out in front, and a pull approach.  Casas has raw power, but I dont want him walking.  Hes a base clogger. Plus anytime he has to hustle he hurts himself. He should just swing for the fences every at bat.  Fat people dont run good.

[drewski6]

Dont waddle good*

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A hit! All our Little League coaches were wrong -- a walk's not as good.

They werent necessarily wrong.  Sh*t changes every 3-5 years.  Which is why I laugh when people act like OPS and WAR and "sabermetrics" are new school.  

Beane was looking for defense and power 3 years after making "defense does not matter only OBP" famous.  Becasue Beane was always about zigging when others zagged.  

I dont like Casas taking so many pitches.  I dont think really anybody should be.  I remember as a kid my dad teaching me the game and excitedly telling me "this guys great , he never swings at the first pitch"

Then they realized you were most likley to get a "get me over" pitch on strike 1 or a fastball.  So sh*t changed

Sh*t changes so what you are looking for changes.  I dont hate OPS and point to it often. But Casas needs to go up there and do everything he can do to hit the ball deep.  Not work counts. Not draw walks. Not even gappers. Not staying back, trying to hit it oppo down the line.  Because he cant run, and when he runs he gets hurt.  So he needs to look for fastballs early in the count and meet them in front.  HR or K.  ANything else is an injury.

[drewski6]

Cuz he doesnt move his body well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Cuz he doesnt move his body well.

Tried surfing, but sleeps with the plankton.

[notin]

18 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think its about time we move on from OPS as the best benchmark.  Walks are out of style.

Walks are vital.  Hit the ball? You get on base 30-40% of the time. Draw a walk? 100%!

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A hit! All our Little League coaches were wrong -- a walk's not as good.

But it’s better than most batted ball outcomes.

Walks are gifts,  it’s impolite to refuse them…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

HR or K.  ANything else is an injury.

You got the wrong ballpark for Casas if this is the target. 

Fenway is 24th for LHB HR's. Worse than SD and SEA.

It's a park made for 2b's. Head and shoulders #1 for LHB. 

[moonslav59]

One major plus for taking pitchers a couple decades ago was to max out the pitch count on SP'ers and get to the pen ASAP. especially the middle RP'ers, who were mostly failed SP'ers.

Now, with the increased specialization of pens, that is not such an advantage anymore, but it still does not mean taking a lot of pitches and focing BBs is a negative thing. I like the Casas approach. I just don't like that he is a fragile China doll.

To me, if Casas is healthy, he's our top HR threat and maybea top 3 OBP guy on the team. He sucks on D, but what else do you want from a DH? 30 HRs and .350 OBP. The 'assuming health" is the big issue.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One major plus for taking pitchers a couple decades ago was to max out the pitch count on SP'ers and get to the pen ASAP. especially the middle RP'ers, who were mostly failed SP'ers.

Now, with the increased specialization of pens, that is not such an advantage anymore, but it still does not mean taking a lot of pitches and focing BBs is a negative thing. I like the Casas approach. I just don't like that he is a fragile China doll.

To me, if Casas is healthy, he's our top HR threat and maybea top 3 OBP guy on the team. He sucks on D, but what else do you want from a DH? 30 HRs and .350 OBP. The 'assuming health" is the big issue.

The problem with Casas is that he is his inability to protect the plate or be aggressive with 2 strikes. He carried a 37% strike out looking, when league average is 23.5%. Other Sox hitters above 30 were Campbell, Sogard, Eaton and Sabol (not exactly a wrecking crew). His overall strike looking % was only 21.2% which means he was more likely to watch a called third strike than any other pitch.