The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida for Wm Contreras (1B.)

Or, maybe Masa & Hicks for Arenado?

I’d rather have Yoshida and Hicks than Arenado.  
 

2 yrs / $42mill for an OPS+ below Rafaela, and with waning defense to boot.  Oh, and Bregman isnt very likely to opt out given his collapse. So where for Arenado - 1b or DH? 

Contreras is at least hitting better.  But St. Louis isnt likely to take on a DH making only $3mill or so less over 2 years coming off the season Yoshida is having, unless they really have faith in Yoshida…

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, notin said:

I think Castellanos is a step down from Yoshida.  He is right-handed with some power, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game.  Defensively he isnt an upgrade over anyone, including every outfielder in MLB.

But it’s the only type of deal I can think of for Yoshida…

Why does he need to be dealt?  I think he can stay on the 40 man and will clear waivers. He's likely AAA bound.  But can be recalled if there is a hole at DH at some point in 2026.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why does he need to be dealt?  I think he can stay on the 40 man and will clear waivers. He's likely AAA bound.  But can be recalled if there is a hole at DH at some point in 2026.

Or he can simply be demoted as well.  Hes hardly the worst player on the 40 man roster.

He definitely clears waivers and cannot declare free agency.  Boston pays him no matter what.  
 

I still have faith in him.  Hes the only contact hitter on the team and has shown he can hit very well for long stretches. Plus his numbers in Japan strongly parallel those of Seiya Suzuki.  The bold prediction has him competing for the 2026 AL batting title…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Or he can simply be demoted as well.  Hes hardly the worst player on the 40 man roster.

He definitely clears waivers and cannot declare free agency.  Boston pays him no matter what.  
 

I still have faith in him.  Hes the only contact hitter on the team and has shown he can hit very well for long stretches. Plus his numbers in Japan strongly parallel those of Seiya Suzuki.  The bold prediction has him competing for the 2026 AL batting title…

We all know that will only happen if Yoshida is traded to an NL team for an overpriced middling reliever.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’d rather have Yoshida and Hicks than Arenado.  
 

2 yrs / $42mill for an OPS+ below Rafaela, and with waning defense to boot.  Oh, and Bregman isnt very likely to opt out given his collapse. So where for Arenado - 1b or DH? 

Contreras is at least hitting better.  But St. Louis isnt likely to take on a DH making only $3mill or so less over 2 years coming off the season Yoshida is having, unless they really have faith in Yoshida…

Agreed. I forgot Arenado is owed $15M in 2028. $69M total and a $30M tax hit for3 years! We'd need some money sent back to offset the money. Yoshida is owed $36M/2 and Hicks $24M/2, but their tax hit is just $28.3M x 2 (not 3 like Arenado.)

Arenado would be a 1B/DH option and back-up 3Bman, where we have little depth other than Mayer and maybe Romero.

I think I'd say no to Yoshida and Hicks for Arenado and $15M.

On Contreras, we could add Sandlin or Mullins (Rule 5 guys.)

[notin]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all know that will only happen if Yoshida is traded to an NL team for an overpriced middling reliever.

Never.

 

I will take all bets that Yoshida doesn’t win the AL batting title after being traded to an NL team…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. I forgot Arenado is owed $15M in 2028. $69M total and a $30M tax hit for3 years! We'd need some money sent back to offset the money. Yoshida is owed $36M/2 and Hicks $24M/2, but their tax hit is just $28.3M x 2 (not 3 like Arenado.)

Arenado would be a 1B/DH option and back-up 3Bman, where we have little depth other than Mayer and maybe Romero.

I think I'd say no to Yoshida and Hicks for Arenado and $15M.

On Contreras, we could add Sandlin or Mullins (Rule 5 guys.)

f*** Contreras.  
 

Sale was useless for 3 years and then traded, after which he became unstoppable..  Story was non-existent for 3 years. The Sox held on and Hes looking like Team MVP.   Yoshida has been rather meh for 3 years.  2026 will be Yoshida Time!

[moonslav59]

Yoshida and Crawford for Luis Castillo (owed $24M x 2)

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida and Crawford for Luis Castillo (owed $24M x 2)

If either team is in a position to deal pitching, it isnt Seattle…

[moonslav59]

Yoshida, DHam and Crawford for Marte ($19M tax hit until 2031.)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If either team is in a position to deal pitching, it isnt Seattle…

They get a longer controlled pitcher back.

[moonslav59]

Yoshida, Rafaela & Crawford for Yelich

Duran or Abreu plus Clarke & Sandlin for Ryan.

[moonslav59]

Is Pablo Lopez expected back for 2026?

If yes...

Yoshida and Crawford for Pablo ($43.5M/2, but $18.4M x 2 tax hit.)

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They get a longer controlled pitcher back.

True, but he is a step down.  Theyre simply not a better team with Crawford in place of Castillo.

Right after in said Seattle was in no position to deal SP, I checked BTV for Duran matches and of course George Kirby is almost spot on as an equal.

But Kirby hasn’t been good for a while now.  And I’m not sure Seattle wants Duran given Randy Arozarena. (4.1 bWAR) is holding down LF, JRod (6.3 bWAR) is a cornerstone in CF, and I don’t think any of to hen would work out on RF, where Seattle uses Dominic Canzone.

But given the mediocrity of Kirby and the complete flop this year they’ve gotten from Bryce Miller, I have my doubts their SP are so readily available.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is Pablo Lopez expected back for 2026?

If yes...

Yoshida and Crawford for Pablo ($43.5M/2, but $18.4M x 2 tax hit.)

Minnesota has made it clear. They will dump salary.  Not take any back.

Gotta make that bottom line more salable…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Never.

 

I will take all bets that Yoshida doesn’t win the AL batting title after being traded to an NL team…

Not sure that's been done before, but Devers has a lock as the 2025 Red Sox OPS champion, even after being traded to the land of the guy ants.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not sure that's been done before, but Devers has a lock as the 2025 Red Sox OPS champion, even after being traded to the land of the guy ants.

Can’t win a batting title with 334 plate appearances…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida, DHam and Crawford for Marte ($19M tax hit until 2031.)

You will need some very significant blackmail on Mike Hazen to get him to agree to that.  And I mean very significant, as in one or two murders might not be enough…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida, Rafaela & Crawford for Yelich

Duran or Abreu plus Clarke & Sandlin for Ryan.

Yelich is ok despite being owed $84mill for the next 3 years.  Not sure Milwaukee -clearly in a “win now” mode - is so quick to break up that winning formula, especially since Yelich is their leader and a fan favorite.

Im not sold on Ryan.  He’s been terrible lately. Rather have Lopez if I’m waiting on a Twin pitcher this off-season…

[harmony]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

True, but he is a step down.  Theyre simply not a better team with Crawford in place of Castillo.

Right after in said Seattle was in no position to deal SP, I checked BTV for Duran matches and of course George Kirby is almost spot on as an equal.

But Kirby hasn’t been good for a while now.  And I’m not sure Seattle wants Duran given Randy Arozarena. (4.1 bWAR) is holding down LF, JRod (6.3 bWAR) is a cornerstone in CF, and I don’t think any of to hen would work out on RF, where Seattle uses Dominic Canzone.

But given the mediocrity of Kirby and the complete flop this year they’ve gotten from Bryce Miller, I have my doubts their SP are so readily available.

Seattle also has team control next season over rightfielders Victor Robles and Luke Raley. Raley and Dominic Canzone are somewhat redundant as late-blooming, lefthand-batting power hitters out of Ohio. The Mariners may trade one this offseason, perhaps Raley, who is three years older than Canzone, who slugged three homers among his five hits Tuesday.

Last offseason the Mariners were in no position to trade starting pitching and are in an even more dire position today. The health of the Seattle pitching staff has improved in the second half but the Mariners still rank 11th in the league with an ERA+ of 96 (the M's are second in OPS+ at 112).

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Seattle also has team control next season over rightfielders Victor Robles and Luke Raley. Raley and Dominic Canzone are somewhat redundant as late-blooming, lefthand-batting power hitters out of Ohio. The Mariners may trade one this offseason, perhaps Raley, who is three years older than Canzone, who slugged three homers among his five hits Tuesday.

Last offseason the Mariners were in no position to trade starting pitching and are in an even more dire position today. The health of the Seattle pitching staff has improved in the second half but the Mariners still rank 11th in the league with an ERA+ of 96 (the M's are second in OPS+ at 112).

I wanted Woo, last winter. Now, he's the untouchable one.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I wanted Woo, last winter. Now, he's the untouchable one.

I don’t think any of them were ever all that available…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t think any of them were ever all that available…

Probably not, unless we wow'd them. Rumor was Casas was offered with others.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Minnesota has made it clear. They will dump salary.  Not take any back.

If that is the case, then asking for Pablo or Buxton with Ryan without giving much salary back, might be the trick.

Pablo is owed $121.75M x 2 ($18.4 AAV)

Buxton is owed $15.1M x 3 ($14.3M AAV)

While taking back Duran at $8M or 3 arbs or Rafaela $48M/6 still owed may seem like too much, the savings would still be significant. Abreu is still pre-arb, followed by 3 arbs. Taking Rafaela might be okay, since he gets paid very little for the next 2-3 years, and maybe they can trade him, later, if he still has value. His AAV is just $6.2M, but including him on a deal would lessen the tax line hit. He's cheaper per year than Buxton by a lot.

Would MIN take Rafaela, Campbell, Crawford (arb 2 of 4 pending) Clarke and Sandlin or Mullins for Buxton & Ryan?

I'm not sure JH would pay for Lopez & Buxton, even if we gave back Duran and Hicks (higher cost players)

[notin]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If that is the case, then asking for Pablo or Buxton with Ryan without giving much salary back, might be the trick.

Pablo is owed $121.75M x 2 ($18.4 AAV)

Buxton is owed $15.1M x 3 ($14.3M AAV)

While taking back Duran at $8M or 3 arbs or Rafaela $48M/6 still owed may seem like too much, the savings would still be significant. Abreu is still pre-arb, followed by 3 arbs. Taking Rafaela might be okay, since he gets paid very little for the next 2-3 years, and maybe they can trade him, later, if he still has value. His AAV is just $6.2M, but including him on a deal would lessen the tax line hit. He's cheaper per year than Buxton by a lot.

Would MIN take Rafaela, Campbell, Crawford (arb 2 of 4 pending) Clarke and Sandlin or Mullins for Buxton & Ryan?

I'm not sure JH would pay for Lopez & Buxton, even if we gave back Duran and Hicks (higher cost players)

No idea.

But I think more likely is the Sox involve a third team and move an outfielder - either Abreu or Duran - and use those pieces to get a SP. Ryan was on their radar once before, and he might still be. Other options include Lopez and the Marlins pitchers Alcantara and Cabrera. (Is it an off-season without Marlins pitchers rumors?)

Duran is a solid fit on the Dodgers (Dalton Rushing?) and the Phillies (SS Aiden Miller).  Abreu makes sense for Kansas City (catchers Blake Mitchell or Carter Jendon) and possibly Cincinnati. Any of these piece might appeal to Minnesota or Miami..

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Probably not, unless we wow'd them. Rumor was Casas was offered with others.

And rumor was that the Sox balked at including Hamilton, which is probably a misinterpretation on some level…

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I wanted Woo, last winter. Now, he's the untouchable one.

***

Probably not, unless we wow'd them. Rumor was Casas was offered with others.

Bryan Woo may have been the Seattle starter least likely to be traded last offseason.

Rumor was that the Mariners declined an offer of Triston Casas for Woo or Bryce Miller.

The Red Sox reportedly declined an offer of Luis Castillo for Casas and that the Mariners declined a counteroffer of Casas and Masataka Yoshida for Castillo.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/details-on-mariners-red-sox-trade-talks.html

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

And rumor was that the Sox balked at including Hamilton, which is probably a misinterpretation on some level…

It wasn't a balk -- Narvaez stuck out his hand to try to stop them, but was called for catcher's interference.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It wasn't a balk -- Narvaez stuck out his hand to try to stop them, but was called for catcher's interference.

It was a balk.  It was on Breslow. Old habits die hard…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

No idea.

But I think more likely is the Sox involve a third team and move an outfielder - either Abreu or Duran - and use those pieces to get a SP. Ryan was on their radar once before, and he might still be. Other options include Lopez and the Marlins pitchers Alcantara and Cabrera. (Is it an off-season without Marlins pitchers rumors?)

Duran is a solid fit on the Dodgers (Dalton Rushing?) and the Phillies (SS Aiden Miller).  Abreu makes sense for Kansas City (catchers Blake Mitchell or Carter Jendon) and possibly Cincinnati. Any of these piece might appeal to Minnesota or Miami..

Abreu is pre-arb, so he should be a fit for MIN anyway, but a third team might help. Another aspect might be how willing we are to include one of our many pitching prospects. 7 of our top 9 and 12 of our top 20 prospects are pitchers. Couple that idea with the fact that we have a pretty long list of good or promising pitchers coming back from injury, like Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts, Perales and others, one could argue we can afford to include one or two in any package(s.)