The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[drewski6]

On 9/12/2025 at 5:13 PM, notin said:

On BTV, if I substitute Abreu, I have to add in Kristian Campbell and either Payton Tolle or Connelly Early to make a fair trade that would tempt me (assuming I was the Dbacks CBO).

Starting to get pricey.  I’d rather deal Duran and keep my cheaper talent that enables me to buy a SP…

BTV is fluid lol.  That does seem like a steep differential. And Im not conceding I wouldnt do the alt to keep Duran.  But I think there is a better trade than both.

I offer Cedanne and Mayer

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was surprised he wasn't traded over this season.

Maybe nobody wanted him (likely): maybe Brez set a price too high for anyone who was interested (less likely.)

I think we'd keep DHam over Grissom due to his PR value and his better 2B defense. Both could easily be gone by opening day, with DHam the more likely trade candidate and Grissom the DFA'd or non tendered guy. 

Hey, what's the difference between non tendered and DFA'd?

When you DFA , you have 10 days to trade, when you non-tender , instant free agent, but you can trade before the tender/non-tender deadline.

[drewski6]

You DFA to buy time, kick the can down the road

[notin]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was surprised he wasn't traded over this season.

Maybe nobody wanted him (likely): maybe Brez set a price too high for anyone who was interested (less likely.)

I think we'd keep DHam over Grissom due to his PR value and his better 2B defense. Both could easily be gone by opening day, with DHam the more likely trade candidate and Grissom the DFA'd or non tendered guy. 

Hey, what's the difference between non tendered and DFA'd?

Non-tendered players immediately reach free agency and is limited to arbitration-eligible players.

 

A DFAd player is removed from the 40 man roster and placed on waivers, where he can be claimed by another team.  He can only reach free agency if he has 5 or more years of service time or has been DFAd before and goes unclaimed on waivers.  If he does become a free agent, his new team only pays him minimum wage and the team that DFAd him pays any remaining contract…

[notin]

42 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fire, passion, energy, weight room commitment, sense of urgency, emotion, rally-leader, crazy eyes, puts fear in other team.

I wouldnt pitch inside to him, I lose control of one and he might bite my ear off

So do Rafaela and Abreu not have fire, passion, energy, etc.?  Do opposing teams really fear Duran?

[notin]

34 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You DFA to buy time, kick the can down the road

Well, you DFA to remove a player from the 40 man roster.  You can DFA a player under contract; you cannot non-tender a player under contract…

[notin]

43 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

BTV is fluid lol.  That does seem like a steep differential. And Im not conceding I wouldnt do the alt to keep Duran.  But I think there is a better trade than both.

I offer Cedanne and Mayer

I’m not as big of a fan as you for putting Duran in CF.  I think both he and Rafaela are game changers out there, but Rafaela is more likely to change the game in a positive way.

A 1-2-3 punch of Duran-Anthony-Marte is very enticing. But I still prefer moving Duran from those two.

To me, it’s either Duran or Abreu…

[moonslav59]

So, our arb guys are...

Lowe 4th of 4 (may make $9-10M)

Houck 2nd or 3 and will miss 2026.

Crawford 2nd of 4 and is coming back from injuries.

Wong 1st of 3 (should not make a lot)

Bernardino 1st of 4

Other first of 3 are:

Wink, Casas, Romy & Kelly

Grissom is one year away from arb year 1, so are Criswell, Abreu, DHam, Slaten, Weissert, Murphy, I Campbell, Harrison & Moran.

Maybe Lowe is non tendered, but I doubt others will be.

Maybe Grissom is DFA'd.

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I’m not as big of a fan as you for putting Duran in CF.  I think both he and Rafaela are game changers out there, but Rafaela is more likely to change the game in a positive way.

A 1-2-3 punch of Duran-Anthony-Marte is very enticing. But I still prefer moving Duran from those two.

To me, it’s either Duran or Abreu…

I'm okay with Duran in CF, but I doubt Rafaela brings back anything near what Duran or Abreu will, so that is one reason to keep Rafaela.

What about this?

LF: Duran v R/Anthony v L

CF: Anthony v R/ Garcia v L

RF: Abreu FT

Or platoon Garcia with Abreu in RF and play Duran in LF FT and Anthony in CF FT?

[moonslav59]

When you look at the options available for the everyday positions, these look like our highest need positions:

3B: It's Bregman or Mayer. There is not much depth after that, unless you steal Story from SS.

2B: Has been a sore spot since Pedey. We could see Mayer at 2B, if he's not at 3B, or Story at 2B, if we decide to have a healthy Mayer at SS. Romy is an option. I doubt Campbell is an option. (DHam might be traded.)

1B: It's Casas or Lowe with Romy as a possibility, even FT. Campbell might have a shot.

DH: If we don't trade an OF'er, once could DH. If Ref does not retire, he could be a platoon DH. Romy could DH, too. Of course no discussion of DH can occur without Masa mentioned.

Back-up Catcher?

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When you look at the options available for the everyday positions, these look like our highest need positions:

3B: It's Bregman or Mayer. There is not much depth after that, unless you steal Story from SS.

2B: Has been a sore spot since Pedey. We could see Mayer at 2B, if he's not at 3B, or Story at 2B, if we decide to have a healthy Mayer at SS. Romy is an option. I doubt Campbell is an option. (DHam might be traded.)

1B: It's Casas or Lowe with Romy as a possibility, even FT. Campbell might have a shot.

DH: If we don't trade an OF'er, once could DH. If Ref does not retire, he could be a platoon DH. Romy could DH, too. Of course no discussion of DH can occur without Masa mentioned.

Back-up Catcher?

Romy gets to be the free roamer that can play just about anywhere as long as the opposing pitcher is left-handed.

I mentioned on another thread, Refsnyder was 8th in MLB vs LHP over the past 3 seasons.  Romy is one of the 7 hitters in front of him…

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Romy gets to be the free roamer that can play just about anywhere as long as the opposing pitcher is left-handed.

I mentioned on another thread, Refsnyder was 8th in MLB vs LHP over the past 3 seasons.  Romy is one of the 7 hitters in front of him…

Romy has faced more RHPs than LHPs, this year, and is over .700 vs RHPs. He may be morphing into a FT player.

BTW, Romy is ahead of #8 Ref in 2025. Ref is 8th and Romy is 2nd, but over the last 3 years, Romy is not ahead of Ref.

Last 3 years (300+ PAs vs LHPs)

7. Ref .913 (421 PAs)

15. Romy .890 (304 PAs)

[drewski6]

On 9/15/2025 at 10:01 AM, notin said:

So do Rafaela and Abreu not have fire, passion, energy, etc.?  Do opposing teams really fear Duran?

Different roles emerge on a team.  Rafaela and Abreu do have passion and energy, but I think Duran is the rally leader.  The guy who psyches up the teammate.  The emotional leader.  Im not sure if opponents are afraid as in shaking in their boots.  But I do think this kind of thing has an effect. The mental side of the game is real, and I think that Duran contributes there.  He is the epitome of a "glad hes on my team" guy.

[drewski6]

On 9/15/2025 at 10:06 AM, notin said:

I’m not as big of a fan as you for putting Duran in CF.  I think both he and Rafaela are game changers out there, but Rafaela is more likely to change the game in a positive way.

A 1-2-3 punch of Duran-Anthony-Marte is very enticing. But I still prefer moving Duran from those two.

To me, it’s either Duran or Abreu…

Im not a big fan of making your decisions through the lens of ideal defensive alignment.  Its not really about thinking player x fits better at position y than x, its more of it being further down in my priority order.

[harmony]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm okay with Duran in CF, but I doubt Rafaela brings back anything near what Duran or Abreu will, so that is one reason to keep Rafaela.

Rafaela has an impressive full name: Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rafael001ced

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Im not a big fan of making your decisions through the lens of ideal defensive alignment.  Its not really about thinking player x fits better at position y than x, its more of it being further down in my priority order.

I get that. I worry about decline as Duran ages, but his control years end about the time when decline begins.

Previously, I had concerns about his attitude. The comment he made to the fan and missing time in TOR due to not getting vaccinated. That's not enough for me to want to trade him, and that doesn't bother me, anymore.

He is a spark. I agree.

I like Abreu because he is younger, has more control years, hits more homers and plays more D than Duran. Does "spark" outweigh all that?

Duran vs Rafaela is apples to oranges. I fully understand anyone who wants Duran. I do, too. To me, it's the return that might tip the balance.

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get that. I worry about decline as Duran ages, but his control years end about the time when decline begins.

Previously, I had concerns about his attitude. The comment he made to the fan and missing time in TOR due to not getting vaccinated. That's not enough for me to want to trade him, and that doesn't bother me, anymore.

He is a spark. I agree.

I like Abreu because he is younger, has more control years, hits more homers and plays more D than Duran. Does "spark" outweigh all that?

Duran vs Rafaela is apples to oranges. I fully understand anyone who wants Duran. I do, too. To me, it's the return that might tip the balance.

Point taken about return.  But we traded our best hitter this year (devers).  Duran is our highest positoinal player WAR and its more because of the bat.  You want to trade him after trading Devers, just screams to me, we're just going to keep trading our best hitters.  LIke we did with Mookie.

How about if he has all this value - there is probably a reason?  Im sick of trading very good players.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I get that. I worry about decline as Duran ages, but his control years end about the time when decline begins.

We have no true measure on when decline actually begins for each player. It's just a guess. Decline could have already happened for Duran. Maybe it won't be until age 35? We have no clue. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Point taken about return.  But we traded our best hitter this year (devers).  Duran is our highest positoinal player WAR and its more because of the bat.  You want to trade him after trading Devers, just screams to me, we're just going to keep trading our best hitters.  LIke we did with Mookie.

How about if he has all this value - there is probably a reason?  Im sick of trading very good players.

Duran trails Anthony, Bregman, and Abreu in OPS+.  I’m not so sure he’s the best hitter.  Fourth out of nine starters?

Hos OPS+ is 115.  Hes not average.  But hes worse offensively and defensively than Abreu this year.  His higher bWAR is likely from playing more games.

Now he certainly is among the most durable on this team.  That shouldn’t be ignored.  As they say, the best ability is availability…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Point taken about return.  But we traded our best hitter this year (devers).  Duran is our highest positoinal player WAR and its more because of the bat.  You want to trade him after trading Devers, just screams to me, we're just going to keep trading our best hitters.  LIke we did with Mookie.

How about if he has all this value - there is probably a reason?  Im sick of trading very good players.

We handed Devers away as a salary dump. I'm not handing Duran or Abreu away. I see Joe Ryan as an ace or near ace. We can see how Crochet made us a force. Adding another top pitcher will help a lot.

The other way I look at it is this: step up vs step down.

The step down from Duran to Anthony, Abreu or Rafaela has a value.

The step up from Jow Ryan over Crawford/Dobbins or whoever our 5th SP'er has a value.

Which value is larger? (I'm not sure, but there is some sense in trading from an area of depth.)

Now, we can argue all 4 OF'ers can play, if we DH one, and that changes the value of the trade-off. We can argue Early, Tolle and others will more than make up for losing Gio, Houck and Buehler from the rotation and the upgrade from Early to Ryan might be a negative value.

It probably makes sense to trade Rafaela and just not get Joe Ryan back. Maybe trade Rafaela, Clarke and Romero, Mullins or Sandlin for Mitch Keller.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran trails Anthony, Bregman, and Abreu in OPS+.  I’m not so sure he’s the best hitter.  Fourth out of nine starters?

Hos OPS+ is 115.  Hes not average.  But hes worse offensively and defensively than Abreu this year.  His higher bWAR is likely from playing more games.

Now he certainly is among the most durable on this team.  That shouldn’t be ignored.  As they say, the best ability is availability…

All 3 of the batters with higher OPS+ are also better on defense. Abreu and Anthony are also pre-prime and have a higher ceiling.

[drewski6]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran trails Anthony, Bregman, and Abreu in OPS+.  I’m not so sure he’s the best hitter.  Fourth out of nine starters?

Hos OPS+ is 115.  Hes not average.  But hes worse offensively and defensively than Abreu this year.  His higher bWAR is likely from playing more games.

Now he certainly is among the most durable on this team.  That shouldn’t be ignored.  As they say, the best ability is availability…

But we could lose Bregman, Anthony will be 22 next year and sophmore slumps are real.  So that leaves Abreu and Duran, the two dudes who most are circling as trade bait and Im just over here like "no"

As Moon often says, a lot of this will be impacted by what we do around these players offensively. So for example trade for Marte and sign Alonso and suddenly if we trade Abreu (or even Duran) we arent trading away such a large part of our offense.

[drewski6]

The one thing I am dead against , right now, is committing to certain moves.  A lot can change.  Part of my hesitancy to consider trading Duran is because those types of dudes (intense) tend to thrive in playoff atmospheres.  Duran is a pest in a good way.  I want him out there talking s*** to opposing pitchers, giving stare downs, running on the basepaths, trolling the other team through the media.  I dont want him lobbing slurs, but I do want him lobbing insults.  I would love to see him throw a punch, even.

Now if playoffs come and none of that manifests, instead hes quiet and slumpy - a lot will change in my calculation of what he's worth.  But in the playoffs, you generally want the win the passion/intensity battle.

[notin]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But we could lose Bregman, Anthony will be 22 next year and sophmore slumps are real.  So that leaves Abreu and Duran, the two dudes who most are circling as trade bait and Im just over here like "no"

As Moon often says, a lot of this will be impacted by what we do around these players offensively. So for example trade for Marte and sign Alonso and suddenly if we trade Abreu (or even Duran) we arent trading away such a large part of our offense.

Or do something semi-radical like trade Yoshida (2 years $37.2mill) for Nick Castellanos (1 yr $20mill)

No idea how Philly feels about Yoshida.  They are reportedly unhappy with Castellanos…

[drewski6]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

Or do something semi-radical like trade Yoshida (2 years $37.2mill) for Nick Castellanos (1 yr $20mill)

No idea how Philly feels about Yoshida.  They are reportedly unhappy with Castellanos…

Not sure what that would accomplish, but in the context of this conversation - bringing in Castellanos would not make me feel one bit better about moving an offensive player. In fact, it would make me feel worse

[moonslav59]

I will say, our offense has a lot of potential. That is not the same as proven talent.

While a sophomore slump is possible for Anthony, Narvaez, Mayer, Campbell (maybe he already had his slump) and the rookie pitchers (Dobbins, Early and Tolle,) I think we get more from them in 2026 than 2025. For one thing, they should play way more than this year- just about all of them, except Narvaez.

Our approach, this year, after the Devers trade was to try and have a more balanced offense, and not one with 2-3 studs and not much afterwards. It worked to varying degrees, but we really could use a beast or two. Bregman barely qualifies, but his slump makes being a "beast" 2026 a question. Anthony and Abreu might become a beast. If Duran could repeat 2024, he'd be close to being one. That's a lot of ifs, but having 4 or them is better than some teams have, and that's before we might add a big bat over the winter.

We have 10 guys with an OPS+ over 103, but two were mostly platoons on the short side (Ref & Romy) and two are Lowe and Eaton. 

We could view it like we have 6 or 7 for 2026, depending on Breggie:

138 Anthony (sophomore slump in '26)

129 Bregman (back in '26?)

121 Abreu + 134 Ref platoon in RF

115 Duran

109 Lowe + 132 Romy platoon at 1B

105 Narvaez

103 Story

That leaves DH, 2B, and CF as sub 90.

Mayer offers some hope at plus 100 at 2B.

Casas and Yoshida offer some hope at DH.

Ideally, we add a real big bat on top of brining Bregman back. 1B, 2B or DH makes the most sense.

Alonso (1B) Saurez (1B or 3B no Breggie) or Schwarber (DH)

Marte via trade (2B) If no Breggie, we can play Mayer at 3B and Marte at 2B.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

The one thing I am dead against , right now, is committing to certain moves.  A lot can change.  Part of my hesitancy to consider trading Duran is because those types of dudes (intense) tend to thrive in playoff atmospheres.  Duran is a pest in a good way.  I want him out there talking s*** to opposing pitchers, giving stare downs, running on the basepaths, trolling the other team through the media.  I dont want him lobbing slurs, but I do want him lobbing insults.  I would love to see him throw a punch, even.

Now if playoffs come and none of that manifests, instead hes quiet and slumpy - a lot will change in my calculation of what he's worth.  But in the playoffs, you generally want the win the passion/intensity battle.

Good post. The off-field stuff is meaningless unless backed up on the diamond.

Duran can dominate a game, but it has to begin with his bat. The key is if he's disciplined enough to lay off high fastballs and not get himself out.

If he uses the gaps or goes oppo, and starts churning, it can demoralize a defense. Good hits can be caught, but sheer hustle can leave foes helpless out there.

In baseball you're not allowed to tackle opponents.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Good post. The off-field stuff is meaningless unless backed up on the diamond.

Duran can dominate a game, but it has to begin with his bat. The key is if he's disciplined enough to lay off high fastballs and not get himself out.

If he uses the gaps or goes oppo, and starts churning, it can demoralize a defense. Good hits can be caught, but sheer hustle can leave foes helpless out there.

In baseball you're not allowed to tackle opponents.

He doesn't seem to try and steal as many bases, anymore.

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Not sure what that would accomplish, but in the context of this conversation - bringing in Castellanos would not make me feel one bit better about moving an offensive player. In fact, it would make me feel worse

I think Castellanos is a step down from Yoshida.  He is right-handed with some power, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game.  Defensively he isnt an upgrade over anyone, including every outfielder in MLB.

But it’s the only type of deal I can think of for Yoshida…

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, notin said:

I think Castellanos is a step down from Yoshida.  He is right-handed with some power, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game.  Defensively he isnt an upgrade over anyone, including every outfielder in MLB.

But it’s the only type of deal I can think of for Yoshida…

Yoshida for Wm Contreras (1B.)

Or, maybe Masa & Hicks for Arenado?