The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan

[moonslav59]

How I see the current system depth chart in terms of being MLB ready or nearest to being ML ready for 2026 and beyond:

SP: Crochet, Bello, Giolito (mutual option) Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Early, Fitts, Tolle, Harrison, Perales, Criswell, Uberstine, Drohan, Holobetz, Paez, Clarke, Aita, I Coffey, Wehunt (maybe 2 yrs away: Witherspoon, Fajardo, Valera, Phillips, Eyanson)

Houck (out until 2027)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Winckowski, Guerrero, Kelly,  Hicks (no options) Moran, Murphy, Mullins, Sandlin, Song, Hoppe, Dean, Rogers

C: Narvaez, Wong, Rosario (2 yrs? Jo Garcia, Salazar)

1B: Casas, Lowe (last arb/non tender) Romy, Campbell, Brannon

2B: Romy, Mayer, (Story) Sogard, DHam, Sogard, Romero, Grissom (2 yrs? M White)

SS: Story, Mayer, Sogard, Romy, Arias (2 yrs? Godbout)

3B: Bregman (opt out) Mayer, (Story) Eaton, Romy, Sogard, Romero

LF: Anthony, Duran, Campbell, Yoshida, Jh Garcia (2 yrs: Gonzales/Y Rod)

CF: Anthony, Rafaela, Duran, Jh Garcia, Campbell, N Taylor

RF: Anthony, Abreu, Rafaela, Jh Garcia, Campbell, Bleis

DH: Casas/Yoshida, Romy/Campbell. Duran, Hickey

[moonslav59]

Assuming Bregman & Gio opt out, Refsnyder retires, and other FAs are not re-signed, this is the remaining foundation for 2026:

SP: Crochet, Bello, Dobbins, Sandoval, Early/Harrison/Fitts/Perales

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Crawford, Tolle, Bernardino, Winckowski/Hicks/Guerrero/Kelly/Moran/Murphy

1. Anthony LF

2. Story 2B

3. Duran DH

4. Abreu RF

5. Romy 2B

6. Mayer 3B

7. Casas or Lowe 1B

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

(We could see Casas at DH or Masa, of course.)

Bench: Wong, Eaton, Sogard/Campbell/Jh Garcia

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Assuming Bregman & Gio opt out, Refsnyder retires, and other FAs are not re-signed, this is the remaining foundation for 2026:

SP: Crochet, Bello, Dobbins, Sandoval, Early/Harrison/Fitts/Perales

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Crawford, Tolle, Bernardino, Winckowski/Hicks/Guerrero/Kelly/Moran/Murphy

1. Anthony LF

2. Story 2B

3. Duran DH

4. Abreu RF

5. Romy 2B

6. Mayer 3B

7. Casas or Lowe 1B

8. Narvaez C

9. Rafaela CF

(We could see Casas at DH or Masa, of course.)

Bench: Wong, Eaton, Sogard/Campbell/Jh Garcia

Wondering if it makes sense for the Sox to investigate a past target I’ve thrown out there (and they’ve not been connected to publicly) by moving either Yoshida (2 yr $37.2mill) or Hicks (2 yrs $25mill) to Atlanta for C Sean Murphy (3yrs $45mill).

BTV gives Murphy a surplus value of minus $25mill, Yoshida a surplus value of minus $31.1mill and Hicks a surplus of minus $19mill.

Drake Baldwin is likely NL ROY or NL ROY runner up. Atlanta will likely lose Marcell Ozuna to free agency.  Murphy is an option to replace him, but he’s not close to the same hitter.  And possibly less of one than Yoshida at this point.

But if I’m GM of Atlanta, I’d still prefer Hicks.  Bigger financial savings, lower AAV, and he does still throw really, really hard.  And it might be as simple as keeping him out of the rotation to get him back to the reliever he used to be…

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Wondering if it makes sense for the Sox to investigate a past target I’ve thrown out there (and they’ve not been connected to publicly) by moving either Yoshida (2 yr $37.2mill) or Hicks (2 yrs $25mill) to Atlanta for C Sean Murphy (3yrs $45mill).

BTV gives Murphy a surplus value of minus $25mill, Yoshida a surplus value of minus $31.1mill and Hicks a surplus of minus $19mill.

Drake Baldwin is likely NL ROY or NL ROY runner up. Atlanta will likely lose Marcell Ozuna to free agency.  Murphy is an option to replace him, but he’s not close to the same hitter.  And possibly less of one than Yoshida at this point.

But if I’m GM of Atlanta, I’d still prefer Hicks.  Bigger financial savings, lower AAV, and he does still throw really, really hard.  And it might be as simple as keeping him out of the rotation to get him back to the reliever he used to be…

 

I'd do either in a heartbeat and add a prospect. I'd suggest Sandlin, but they may insist on Uberstine, Mullins or Guerrero. If they'd take ICampbell, Kelly or ZMurphy, I'd gladly say yes. Maybe they hold out for someone better, like Clarke or Paez. How about Cespedes,Castro or Bleis?

[notin]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd do either in a heartbeat and add a prospect. I'd suggest Sandlin, but they may insist on Uberstine, Mullins or Guerrero. If they'd take ICampbell, Kelly or ZMurphy, I'd gladly say yes. Maybe they hold out for someone better, like Clarke or Paez. How about Cespedes,Castro or Bleis?

For Yoshida, either money or a prospect. 
 For Hicks, nope.  They save $20mill plus get the more useful player.

Also, you’d package Sandlin over Uberstine? Uberstine strikes me as a fungible AAAA player every team has several of.  Sandlin is no elite prospect but he appears to be the more useful of that pair.

The Sox will protect Sandlin.  Maybe Mullins.  Not Uberstine…

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

For Yoshida, either money or a prospect. 
 For Hicks, nope.  They save $20mill plus get the more useful player.

Also, you’d package Sandlin over Uberstine? Uberstine strikes me as a fungible AAAA player every team has several of.  Sandlin is no elite prospect but he appears to be the more useful of that pair.

The Sox will protect Sandlin.  Maybe Mullins.  Not Uberstine…

I'm losing faith in Sandlin, but I guess I'd put him over Uberstine.

Since Hicks costs less, I think we'd need to include about as much as for Yoshida, if not more.

 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm losing faith in Sandlin, but I guess I'd put him over Uberstine.

Since Hicks costs less, I think we'd need to include about as much as for Yoshida, if not more.

 

If they just throw Sandlin in the pen and get him to work on his control, maybe it works out a bit? IDK. I've never been as high on him as many others have been. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they just throw Sandlin in the pen and get him to work on his control, maybe it works out a bit? IDK. I've never been as high on him as many others have been. 

He's probably worth protecting from Rule 5 and seeing what he can do in AAA, next year. I see enough others we can trade or DFA, but it also depends on Brez deciding to add 2-3 higher quality players to the 40 or go with 4-5 mid ranger additions, instead.

It's a close call, but I like Mullins better than Sandlin, right now. Both are Rule 5 eligible, and we may keep just 1.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they just throw Sandlin in the pen and get him to work on his control, maybe it works out a bit? IDK. I've never been as high on him as many others have been. 

He kind of stands out on the short list of Rule 5 eligible players worth protecting, which doesn’t say much.

The only candidates IMO are him, Mullins and maybe (finally?) Noah Song…

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's probably worth protecting from Rule 5 and seeing what he can do in AAA, next year. I see enough others we can trade or DFA, but it also depends on Brez deciding to add 2-3 higher quality players to the 40 or go with 4-5 mid ranger additions, instead.

It's a close call, but I like Mullins better than Sandlin, right now. Both are Rule 5 eligible, and we may keep just 1.

They won't be able to keep everyone. Uberstine is most likely not put on the 40 man. Maybe just Sandlin? DFA Winckowski and Campbell (both out of options). 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

He kind of stands out on the short list of Rule 5 eligible players worth protecting, which doesn’t say much.

The only candidates IMO are him, Mullins and maybe (finally?) Noah Song…

Sandlin's MiLB results have been very similar to Slaten's prior to him being drafted. If he was left unprotected, he'd get drafted just because he throws so hard and can look really nasty in his best moments. There's zero chance he'd go unpicked. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They won't be able to keep everyone. Uberstine is most likely not put on the 40 man. Maybe just Sandlin? DFA Winckowski and Campbell (both out of options). 

Agreed, and that was one reason I suggested Uberstine as a trade add-on. No 40 man slot is needed for him.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sandlin's MiLB results have been very similar to Slaten's prior to him being drafted. If he was left unprotected, he'd get drafted just because he throws so hard and can look really nasty in his best moments. There's zero chance he'd go unpicked. 

I think we keep Sandlin. Mullins might be 50-50.

I'd rather keep Mullins over I Campbell, Grissom & Hicks, if it came down to them or...

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we keep Sandlin. Mullins might be 50-50.

I'd rather keep Mullins over I Campbell, Grissom & Hicks, if it came down to them or...

Sox are probably hoping to slide Mullins through the Rule 5 process and hope him being 25 in AA with significant injury risk keeps him off the radar. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are probably hoping to slide Mullins through the Rule 5 process and hope him being 25 in AA with significant injury risk keeps him off the radar. 

Maybe. Since I like Mullins more than the 3 guys I listed, I'd keep Sandlin and him by adding them to the 40.

The thing is, when we start adding FAs of trade targets, he's like #39 or 40, so...

I think we need a 3 for 1 trade mixed in  somewhere before Rule 5 day.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. Since I like Mullins more than the 3 guys I listed, I'd keep Sandlin and him by adding them to the 40.

The thing is, when we start adding FAs of trade targets, he's like #39 or 40, so...

I think we need a 3 for 1 trade mixed in  somewhere before Rule 5 day.

Yeah, there may need to be trades for involving guys without options like Criswell, Hicks, Moran and Winckowski. They may think about moves regarding Bernardino and Weissert too. 

On the hitter side, Grissom is the only guy that really needs to be moved and is out of options.

[notin]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yeah, there may need to be trades for involving guys without options like Criswell, Hicks, Moran and Winckowski. They may think about moves regarding Bernardino and Weissert too. 

On the hitter side, Grissom is the only guy that really needs to be moved and is out of options.

Grissom is probably about 90% likely to be DFAd and released…

[notin]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. Since I like Mullins more than the 3 guys I listed, I'd keep Sandlin and him by adding them to the 40.

The thing is, when we start adding FAs of trade targets, he's like #39 or 40, so...

I think we need a 3 for 1 trade mixed in  somewhere before Rule 5 day.

It’s no so easy to convince another team to take on multiple Rule 5 eligible players before the draft.  But the Sox also don’t have many eligible players that other teams figure to target, either.  Anyone below AA (Jedixson Paez, for example) is unlikely to be selected.   
 

The Rule 5 draft does have a huge downside for teams that make selections because they take a player who is going to lose a year if development in the minors and lose a year of control in the majors.  I don’t think the Sox have to or will protect very many…

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s no so easy to convince another team to take on multiple Rule 5 eligible players before the draft.  But the Sox also don’t have many eligible players that other teams figure to target, either.  Anyone below AA (Jedixson Paez, for example) is unlikely to be selected.   
 

The Rule 5 draft does have a huge downside for teams that make selections because they take a player who is going to lose a year if development in the minors and lose a year of control in the majors.  I don’t think the Sox have to or will protect very many…

If someone gets frisky and selects Shane Drohan, he would not be returned to the Sox if released by the selecting team. Not sure if that matters in the Sox's calculation (12 G, 48 IP, 1.01 WHIP, 2.27 ERA in AAA this season).

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s no so easy to convince another team to take on multiple Rule 5 eligible players before the draft.  But the Sox also don’t have many eligible players that other teams figure to target, either.  Anyone below AA (Jedixson Paez, for example) is unlikely to be selected.   
 

The Rule 5 draft does have a huge downside for teams that make selections because they take a player who is going to lose a year if development in the minors and lose a year of control in the majors.  I don’t think the Sox have to or will protect very many…

Yes, it's probably easier to trade Paez than Mullins for that reason, unless the team really likes Mullins and will create a 40 man slot for him.

The same is true for offering a package of Duran, DHam and Murphy. The team would need to not only want all 3, but make room for all 3. All 3 would have to be better than those they clear out to make room for them.

[moonslav59]

For this idea, I'm going to assume all free agents and option players are gone, except Story.

We trade Rafaela ($48M/6, but $6.3M AAV) & Crawford (3 arbs left,) for Mitch Keller ($55M/3, but $15.4M x 3 Tax line) We add about $6M to Tax line.

We trade Campbell ($59M/7 or $7.5 AAV,) Sandlin, Paez & Hicks ($24M/2 or $10.3M AAV) for Ketel Marte ($91M/5 or $19.4M x 5 AAV) We add about $2M to Tax line.

We sign Schwarber at $32M x 5. ($32M AAV) and non tender Lowe.

That's $40M added AAV. The roster... (40 not 26)

SP: Crochet, Bello, Keller, Dobbins, Sandoval (Early, Fitts, Perales & Houck to 60 Day IL on opening day)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Tolle, Weissert, Bernardino, Winckowski, Criswell (Guerrero, Kelly, Murphy, Moran, I Campbell)

1. Anthony LF

2. Schwarber 1B

3. Marte 2B

4. Story SS

5. Duran CF

6. Abreu RF

7. Casas DH

8. Mayer 3B

9. Narvaez C

Bench: Wong, Jh Garca, Eaton, Romy (Yoshida, DHam, Sogard, Grissom, Romero)

 

 

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

For this idea, I'm going to assume all free agents and option players are gone, except Story.

We trade Rafaela ($48M/6, but $6.3M AAV) & Crawford (3 arbs left,) for Mitch Keller ($55M/3, but $15.4M x 3 Tax line) We add about $6M to Tax line.

We trade Campbell ($59M/7 or $7.5 AAV,) Sandlin, Paez & Hicks ($24M/2 or $10.3M AAV) for Ketel Marte ($91M/5 or $19.4M x 5 AAV) We add about $2M to Tax line.

We sign Schwarber at $32M x 5. ($32M AAV) and non tender Lowe.

That's $40M added AAV. The roster... (40 not 26)

SP: Crochet, Bello, Keller, Dobbins, Sandoval (Early, Fitts, Perales & Houck to 60 Day IL on opening day)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Tolle, Weissert, Bernardino, Winckowski, Criswell (Guerrero, Kelly, Murphy, Moran, I Campbell)

1. Anthony LF

2. Schwarber 1B

3. Marte 2B

4. Story SS

5. Duran CF

6. Abreu RF

7. Casas DH

8. Mayer 3B

9. Narvaez C

Bench: Wong, Jh Garca, Eaton, Romy (Yoshida, DHam, Sogard, Grissom, Romero)

 

 

Rafaela ($37.2) plus Crawford ($6.7) for Mitch Keller ($12.6) is a massive overpay per BTV, and probably in real life as well 

Campbell ($29.7), Sandlin ($4.8), Paez ($2.9) and Hicks -$19.1) for Marte ($70.5) is an equally massive underpay on BTV.

Not every team (re:probably none) uses BTV for trade evaluations, but they all probably do use something similar.  
 

Interestingly, these two deal can probably be re-arranangrd to work, but the Sox have to keep Hicks.

Campbell, Rafaela and Paez for Marte. 
 

Crawford and Sandlin for Keller.

If I’m the DBacks, I probably pass on the top deal, unless Marte is more of a PIA than I realize and just has to go. (Maybe he’s so bad they take Hicks?)

If I’m the Pirates, I jump at the bottom deal…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Rafaela ($37.2) plus Crawford ($6.7) for Mitch Keller ($12.6) is a massive overpay per BTV, and probably in real life as well 

Campbell ($29.7), Sandlin ($4.8), Paez ($2.9) and Hicks -$19.1) for Marte ($70.5) is an equally massive underpay on BTV.

Not every team (re:probably none) uses BTV for trade evaluations, but they all probably do use something similar.  
 

Interestingly, these two deal can probably be re-arranangrd to work, but the Sox have to keep Hicks.

Campbell, Rafaela and Paez for Marte. 
 

Crawford and Sandlin for Keller.

If I’m the DBacks, I probably pass on the top deal, unless Marte is more of a PIA than I realize and just has to go. (Maybe he’s so bad they take Hicks?)

If I’m the Pirates, I jump at the bottom deal…

Sounds better. We'd still get the guys I want. Our rotation would be better with Keller over Crawford, who might be headed to the pen, anyway, for us.

Our 2B issue would finally be fixed, as well as a big boost to the line-up with Marte. 

Add the other "beast bat<"  and we'd be good to go.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of "Beast Bats..." OPS+ since 2021

_______________________

Schwarber (turns 33 before the 2026 season)

149>131>121>134>154

_____________________

Alonso (turns 31 in December)

133>146>123>122>144

______________________

Tucker (turns 29 in JAN) Trade 2 OF'ers to make room?

147>129>142>179>146

________________________

Suarez (turns 35 next July) Shorter deal?

82>129>103>115>127

______________________

BTW, Bregman turns 32 at the start of the '26 season:

113>134>122>116>129

K Marte turnes 32 in OCT: 143>105>127>154>142

[notin]

On 9/23/2025 at 8:16 AM, moonslav59 said:

Sounds better. We'd still get the guys I want. Our rotation would be better with Keller over Crawford, who might be headed to the pen, anyway, for us.

Our 2B issue would finally be fixed, as well as a big boost to the line-up with Marte. 

Add the other "beast bat<"  and we'd be good to go.

If Bregman stays, will Breslow really overhaul a relatively young team that made the postseason?

If Bregman opts out, it gets interesting.

But if not, the Sox have two logjams to clear up - OF and 1b/DH.  
 

One (and probably only one) from Anthony, Abreu, Duran and Rafaela could get moved.

They also have Casas, Campbell, Yoshida and Lowe all in the 1b/DH mix.  And that only gets slightly clearer if they non-tender Lowe, which is unfortunate as he is the best all around 1b of the bunch.

Some have options.  Those might be used.

Also I strongly believe Password will not be a 5th outfielder.  If Refsnyder retires, Eaton might take his place.  Hes certainly more likely to than Password…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

If Bregman stays, will Breslow really overhaul a relatively young team that made the postseason?

If Bregman opts out, it gets interesting.

But if not, the Sox have two logjams to clear up - OF and 1b/DH.  
 

One (and probably only one) from Anthony, Abreu, Duran and Rafaela could get moved.

They also have Casas, Campbell, Yoshida and Lowe all in the 1b/DH mix.  And that only gets slightly clearer if they non-tender Lowe, which is unfortunate as he is the best all around 1b of the bunch.

Some have options.  Those might be used.

Also I strongly believe Password will not be a 5th outfielder.  If Refsnyder retires, Eaton might take his place.  Hes certainly more likely to than Password…

I agree. I think Lowe will be too expensive for JH, so they will not offer an arb. He may still re-sign here, but I think they'll go with Casas, Campbell and Romy at 1B.

If Breg stay, they will pencil in Mayer at 2B (with Romy.) If Breg goes, Mayer plays 3B and we find a 2Bman- maybe Torres or a trade for K Marte.

I am very sure we trade an OF'er. I'm thinking it might be Rafaela, but I'd bet on Duran.

We may not add any SP'ers to replace Gio, Buehler/May, but if we don't we better get a real big bat (with Breg or not.) We should get one, even if we trade for Ryan or Keller types. (1B, DH, 2B, 3B)

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree. I think Lowe will be too expensive for JH, so they will not offer an arb. He may still re-sign here, but I think they'll go with Casas, Campbell and Romy at 1B.

If Breg stay, they will pencil in Mayer at 2B (with Romy.) If Breg goes, Mayer plays 3B and we find a 2Bman- maybe Torres or a trade for K Marte.

I am very sure we trade an OF'er. I'm thinking it might be Rafaela, but I'd bet on Duran.

We may not add any SP'ers to replace Gio, Buehler/May, but if we don't we better get a real big bat (with Breg or not.) We should get one, even if we trade for Ryan or Keller types. (1B, DH, 2B, 3B)

Lowe is too expensive for the Breslow's model, not for JH. 

Bregman is a goner. 

I'm not planning on a trade of an OFer, because I've thought they'd do the simple move every year and they seem to ignore it time and time again. 

I think they add one SP, but it's lower leverage than we are hoping for. 

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Lowe is too expensive for the Breslow's model, not for JH. 

Bregman is a goner. 

I'm not planning on a trade of an OFer, because I've thought they'd do the simple move every year and they seem to ignore it time and time again. 

I think they add one SP, but it's lower leverage than we are hoping for. 

I'm probably too high on Jh Garcia, but I think he forces the OF trade issue.

I did not see an OF logjam before last winter. In fact we kept adding one year guys from Renfroe to Duval to O'Neill and also dumped Dugo just in time.

I think we'll trade for Keller (not Ryan.)

I agree that Bregman is a goner, despite the plus he brings to the clubhouse. I'm not sure about the money needed to get Schwarber or Alonso here. They may go with a shorter contract for someone like Suarez. I hope it's for 1B or DH and not 3B, but if Mayer gets hurt again, he can play 3B.

[notin]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Lowe is too expensive for the Breslow's model, not for JH. 

Bregman is a goner. 

I'm not planning on a trade of an OFer, because I've thought they'd do the simple move every year and they seem to ignore it time and time again. 

I think they add one SP, but it's lower leverage than we are hoping for. 

You seem positive Bregman is a goner.  But a miserable second half might make him think twice about the $40million pillow contract in his best ballpark that he has already negotiated.

I can promise you this will come up in talks with his agent.  Sure he might have a harder time getting a longer deal at 33 than 32, but how long and for what AAV do you guarantee a 32yo coming off a .733 OPS?

Sure it’s just for the second half, but that can matter.  His second half performance was a big part in why Eugenio Suarez received a QO…

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

You seem positive Bregman is a goner.  But a miserable second half might make him think twice about the $40million pillow contract in his best ballpark that he has already negotiated.

I can promise you this will come up in talks with his agent.  Sure he might have a harder time getting a longer deal at 33 than 32, but how long and for what AAV do you guarantee a 32yo coming off a .733 OPS?

Sure it’s just for the second half, but that can matter.  His second half performance was a big part in why Eugenio Suarez received a QO…

Weak FA class. Had a strong season regardless of the injury/slowdown at the end. I think he was probably going to opt out no matter what.